Chapter 466: Reincarnation of A-shares
October 31st.
On the last day of the third quarter, A-shares rebounded for two consecutive trading days, returned above 2,600 points, and successfully regained 2,600 points.
The panic caused by the limit down of Maotai lasted only one and a half trading days, and it looked more like a farce directed by institutions.
In the three trading days since the limit down on the 29th, although Maotai has fluctuated violently, it is still very tenacious and has once again reached the daily five-day line position.
The monthly closing price of 563 yuan was 2.53% higher than the limit price of 549.09 yuan on the 29th.
In other words, investors who bought the dip at the limit price on the 29th or below have all realized profits by the close of this month.
Although it has not yet recovered to the closing price on October 26, Maotai’s stock price remains resilient.
It only took three trading days for the stock to close at the lower limit. It was not abandoned by capital due to the so-called change in investment logic as Ms. Liu said.
There are still many funds that prefer Maotai and liquor sectors.
In October 2008, Maotai set a record of 30.09% in the single-month decline in its history. Ten years later, in October 2018, Maotai once again ranked second in history with a single-month decline of 24.81%.
After October 2008, Mao Tai started his road to rebound and was the first to get out of the 2008 bear market.
Ten years later, Maotai’s stock price has once again reached a turning point. Is it a coincidence or intentional?
Throughout October, A-share investors experienced panic at the beginning of the month when the A-share market plummeted below 2,449, and then experienced ecstasy after two consecutive trading days of sharp increases under policy support.
By the end of the month, it was thought that A-shares, which had broken away from the trend of US stocks, would perform even better.
But who would have thought that Maotai would experience an unprecedented limit down and the impact of it.
In terms of the degree of stimulation, the transactions in October this year are definitely among the best in the A-share market.
Although the monthly drop of 7.75% was still significant, the index finally returned to above 2,600 points.
A long golden needle reserves countless thoughts for future rebound.
The same is true for the ChiNext Index. The ChiNext Index has fallen for seven consecutive days at the monthly level. The low of 1184.91 points and the closing point of 1275.57 points have left room for the market.
This is the bottom, at least the temporary bottom, which is a well-known fact. The market does not know how it will rebound in the future.
But for the investors who bought the bottom of Junshi Price Investment this month, this is already a big bottom, and they have made quite good profits.
Since the day when subscription was opened on September 17, Junshi Price Investment reached the lowest net value of 2.2198 in 2018. Even in the face of a big drop in October, it has not fallen below this level.
In October, the lowest net value of Junshi Price Investment was 2.4005, while the net value performance of Junshi Price Investment announced on the evening of the 31st was: 2.7733!
Compared with the net value on the last trading day at the end of September, the net value of Junshi Price Investment Fund has increased by a terrifying 13.94% over the past month.
Within a month, or half a month, Gu Junhao recovered the fund's full-year decline in 2018 and increased the fund's overall size to about 23 billion yuan.
This is a remarkable achievement. To see how remarkable it is, you can refer to the third quarter report of the fund released tonight. Today is also the deadline for disclosure of the third quarter report of the fund.
As of October 31, although the overall size of public funds has reached the 13 trillion yuan mark, the differentiation of funds is very serious. There are funds such as Yu'e Bao with a scale of more than 1.3 trillion yuan, and there are also many funds struggling near the liquidation line.
Compared with the 611 funds with a total scale of less than 50 million yuan at the end of last month, the total number of public funds with a scale of less than 50 million yuan this month exceeded 700, an increase of 14.57%.
If there are no major changes, at least half of these 700 funds will face liquidation.
So far this year, the only public fund that has made a profit is Junshi Value Investment, and Junshi Value Investment's full-year profit is only 4.84% so far.
2018 can be said to be a difficult year for public funds. If fund managers want to collect management fees without doing anything, the first thing they need to do is to survive.
The overall scale of Junshi Value Investment Project is nearly 23 billion yuan, which is already a very remarkable figure at present, and it can be regarded as a leading fund.
The survival of public funds is so difficult that Gu Junhao feels that Maotai’s intense reaction to the disappointing performance this time is more like a collective conspiracy.
Thursday, November 1st.
Late autumn has arrived, and the white-collar workers wearing coats form a sharp contrast with their summer short skirts and stockings.
These handsome men and beautiful women walked hurriedly into the financial building, most of them were employees of Junshi Capital.
"Oh, we won't see these people anymore in a few days." The merchants nearby couldn't help but sigh as they looked at these young people rushing around.
Junshi Capital, which has purchased its own office building, will move collectively to a new office location at the end of the year, which will be a loss for nearby businesses.
In recent years, Junshi Capital's recruitment principle remains mainly young; for this reason, a unique landscape has been formed in the area around the Financial Building.
To see handsome men and beautiful women, besides going to bars, going to the vicinity of the financial building is also a good choice. This has become a consensus among young people in Beicang.
It is said that one can roughly judge the development and changes of an industry by the appearance of its employees. Generally speaking, handsome men and beautiful women usually gather together.
When the real estate market was booming a few years ago, the property sales were all very beautiful, and the car models from the big manufacturers were even more beautiful.
This is even more true in the financial circle. The company with good performance and high benefits will naturally have higher appearance.
In 2018, it is no longer so easy to enter Junshi Capital easily. First of all, in terms of personnel structure, Junshi Capital has tended to be complete.
Ordinary employees no longer need so much. Secondly, the competition brought about by high benefits makes the job opportunities at Junshi Capital even more intense.
At 8:30 in the morning, a Cullinan drove into the underground parking lot of the Financial Building. Gu Junhao walked out of the back seat, entered the elevator, pressed the floor button, and started his new day's work.
The returns of both funds in October were very good. Next, this year's task will be nothing more than building positions in liquor.
Correspondingly, work has become much easier. I no longer need to rush to the company before 8 o'clock to have a morning meeting with Xu Jianqing and the other two like I did last month.
From today on, Gu Junhao may sit in his office leisurely, drinking coffee, looking at various data reports, and then signing his signature, and the day will pass.
As a boss, this is how it feels to be like this.
From the timeline point of view, after the policy bottom in 2018, there is another market bottom. The last two months of this year will still be a bottoming out period, and the index will not change much.
In terms of individual stocks, most of the strong stocks have actually completed the bottoming process. The next two months of trading will only be a process of washing out the market, and there will not be too many variables.
The third quarter reports were all released yesterday, and there were quite a lot of news in the evening. The third quarter trends of institutions, which is one of the focuses of investors, have also been fully released.
In general, even with the support of policies in the third quarter, institutions were not fully bullish and their advances and retreats were mixed; but institutions such as the national team, social security funds, pensions and QFII have already increased their investment.
In other words, super-large institutions have begun to go long, which is good news for the market.
In terms of performance, after the third quarter report officially ended, more than 60% of the annual performance expectations announced by the entire A-share market exceeded expectations.
In general, the news last night was positive for the market as a whole, except for the poor performance of public funds.
Supported by positive factors, A-shares continued to rebound on Thursday, although the Shanghai Composite Index still ended the first trading day of November with a false negative line throughout the day.
But a false negative is a false negative after all. The actual closing was still up. The three major indexes closed up throughout the day on Thursday, which is a very good signal.
You should know that there were only three Thursdays in October when the market plummeted on two days. The only day that did not plummet also opened with a big drop and eventually closed with a real drop.
In the past few months, there have been very few upticks on Thursdays, so this does not seem to be a good reversal signal.
On Friday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening higher and rising 2.70%. Blue chip stocks rebounded collectively, and Maotai Liquor Industry, which has been rebounding continuously, has also risen to 599.90 yuan.
This is the fourth consecutive trading day that the two markets have rebounded. During these four trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.28%, setting a new high since the rebound on October 19.
The accelerated rise of the index coincided with the IPO suspension that was all over the news this week. In September, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a total of 6 IPO approvals.
Even during the sharp drop in October, IPO approvals were issued as scheduled. However, as of November 3, more than a week had passed and the CSRC had not approved any IPO approvals.
Four consecutive trading days of sharp rises and the suspension of IPOs once again plunged the market into endless reverie, but the overall trend of the index was not satisfactory.
The blue-chip stocks, which are still in the process of adjustment, have dragged down the overall trend of the Shanghai Composite Index. Maotai has continued to correct since November 3.
The highest point of the rebound after the limit down was also locked at 600 yuan. Thereafter, Maotai’s stock price continued to fall for six consecutive trading days, falling to a low of 536.80 yuan.
This is actually a good thing for Junshi funds which have not yet completed their positions. They expect to build a position of 10 billion yuan per unit. It would be better if they could buy at a lower price.
According to Maotai's market value and share capital, there is no need to worry about the purchase amount of 10 billion yuan exceeding 5% of the shareholding. Pursuing to buy more chips at a low price is the most realistic approach.
In November, still belonging to the GEM and technology sectors, Ning Wang continued to rise amidst adjustments. By November 12, the stock price reached a high of 83.80 yuan.
At this price, all losses have been suffered since the limit down on July 25. The three-month decline was recovered in less than a month. Ning Wang's rebound was unexpectedly strong beyond the market's expectations.
After the violent rebound, the total market value of Ningwang held by Junshi Group exceeded 8.8 billion yuan. Another heavily-held stock, China News Service, also performed very well this month.
Also as of November 12, the share price of Sino-Singapore Telecommunications A shares had risen to 20.20 yuan, and its performance in Hong Kong stocks was also good, closing at 15.24 Hong Kong dollars.
Both A-share and H-shares rebounded by more than 50%, which also provided Junshi Capital with a large amount of profits. Of the total market value of 7.5 billion yuan, more than 2.58 billion yuan was floating profit.
The continuous rebound of these two stocks has once again pushed Gu Junhao's reputation to a new level, if Tong Huashun is Gu Junhao's representative work of expanding his early funds.
Then Ning Wang and China News Service are a new milestone in Gu Junhao's career after he became famous.
Especially for Sino-Singapore Telecom, a company facing a major crisis. When its stock price fell to the bottom and the market was unanimously bearish, Gu Junhao still raised his hand!
Although there is still a long time before the ban on sales is lifted, it is almost impossible for China News Service, which has now overcome the difficulties, for its stock price to return to Gu Junhao's cost line.
During the big drop in October, the share price of Sino-Singapore Communications only reached a low of 14.50 yuan, which still left a profit margin of nearly 10% from its cost line of 13.25 yuan.
Some institutions that were planning to focus on 5G and technology stocks suddenly realized through analysis that it would be almost impossible to copy Gu Junhao's bottom in the future.
Even the low price of 14.50 yuan is unlikely to appear again. Although China News Service still has a disaster in its annual report, that is also within expectations, and the stock price is not likely to fall to an exaggerated level.
After various analyses, major institutions have found that if they want to build a position in the 5G sector, then leading companies such as Sino-Singapore Telecom are naturally not to be missed.
This feeling is extremely desperate. If one wants to build a position in this sector with good future prospects, one must definitely give Gu Junhao a helping hand.
But with such a big piece of meat in front of me, I feel very greedy.
"Damn it, don't wait until we have built up our positions before this guy announces a reduction in holdings, or directly reduces holdings through block trades. That would be a headache."
"It's hard to say. This guy is actually quite ruthless when it comes to dumping stocks. With so many liquor stocks at the end of the year, he can be so ruthless as to clear out all of them. If it were an ordinary fund manager, he would have to keep some positions anyway."
"Speaking of liquor, according to gossip, this guy has been buying at the bottom again recently. Some people also said that he and northbound funds have been the main buyers of Maotai in the past few days. I don't know whether it is true or not."
"Really? I don't think so. Judging from the holding styles announced in the past two quarters, it is obvious that his bottom-fishing strategy is mainly focused on pharmaceutical and technology stocks on the ChiNext, and liquor is not a good match."
"Who knows? His fund is called Junshi Value Mix, not Junshi Technology Pioneer. Besides, the cash flow is so huge, it's normal for him to buy here and there."
"Someone please come and deal with him. He's the only one who made all the money. We've lost a lot this year, but only his public fund has risen. It's a bit unpleasant to see."
In November, the overall performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was relatively stable. The Shanghai market was still dominated by adjustments, closing down 0.56% on the monthly line, falling below 2,600 points again.
The ChiNext performed strongly this month, ending its seven-day losing streak with a 4.22% increase. The 5G sector was one of the brightest sectors this month.
The leading China New Communications surged 17.37% in the month, while Dongfang Holdings, which had a bleak performance last month, has emerged as a dark horse this month.
Oriental Holdings' monthly trading volume increased to 2.07 billion yuan, with a monthly increase of 34.52%, pushing its share price to 5.65 yuan at the end of the month.
In the last five trading days, Dongfang Holdings has been on a trend of three consecutive gains, and the signs of being a monster stock have begun to emerge from the end of this month.
In November, Gu Junhao rarely appeared in the trading room, so the task of building a position in Oriental Holdings once again returned to the hands of the traders.
Over the past two and a half months, through continuous low-buying, Junshi Price Investment has finally bought enough chips it wanted, and the average transaction price has been raised to 5.17 yuan.
Next, let’s hand over Oriental shares to the market!
