Chapter 467: The Science and Technology Innovation Board is here
In the first month of rescue after the October stock market crash, various new rules were implemented step by step. In line with the new rules, the index surged to a maximum of 2,700 points this month.
One of the new policies that has been mentioned most frequently is the establishment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
In fact, the Science and Technology Innovation Board was already mentioned in October, but the index fell sharply at that time, so naturally no one mentioned the newly established board again.
In November, as the index rebounded, this policy was brought up again, and by the end of the month the first batch of listed companies had almost been determined, which was extremely fast.
According to news from leading securities firms, the first batch of companies listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board have most likely entered the IPO coaching stage, with corporate requirements being of paramount importance.
Influenced by a series of events that occurred in China News Service this year, the decision-makers have elevated the support for the development of science and technology innovation enterprises to a strategic level.
By setting up a special section, solving the financing difficulties of technology-based enterprises was naturally put on the agenda.
High-tech in the fields of integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, aerospace, new energy vehicles, etc. will become the main components of the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
At present, the market generally believes that it will take a long time for the Science and Technology Innovation Board to arrive. Before this, both the Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Board and the ChiNext Board had been in the works for almost 10 years.
But unfortunately, the Science and Technology Innovation Board will unexpectedly be officially launched in June next year, becoming the fastest-launched board in history.
Before the launch of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, there will be a peak of speculation in existing technology stocks, after which part of the funds will be diverted to the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
In other words, the technology stocks currently held by Junshi Group will see a major reduction in holdings before June next year, ending this hype process.
This is the benefit of being able to know some news in advance. It doesn’t matter what stocks you buy. The general trend that follows the situation is the most important thing.
What's more, the technology stocks currently held by Junshi Group are basically leading companies in various segments and companies with relatively advantages.
It is December, the cold winter has arrived, but the news coming from the market brings warmth to investors.
On the evening of December 1st local time, the incident that had lasted for a year finally reached a consensus after the leaders of both sides met.
The two sides decided to stop escalation and restrictive measures on various projects, cancel all additional tariffs since this year, and push bilateral relations back to normal track as soon as possible!
This news was reported by the most authoritative media, and its authenticity is beyond doubt. Once the news reached the country, it caused a huge sensation even at night.
The stone that has been weighing on investors' hearts for a year has finally fallen to the ground!
For nearly a year, news that popped up from time to time, either affecting the overall market or individual stocks, has caused significant losses to investors.
Although the specific details are still unknown, there is a trend of development in a positive direction. The market adjustment at the end of November may not necessarily mean that the two sides are not optimistic about the negotiation results after the meeting.
Now, there is finally a good result.
On Sunday, the fermenting news has made investors look forward to a big rise on the first trading day of December.
On Monday, December 3, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets unexpectedly jumped upward under the stimulus of major positive factors. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.57% that day and returned above the trend line.
The ChiNext Index surged 3.26% in one day, closing at 1372.79 points, with both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets seeing a general rise.
The 5G sector, which performed well last month, continued to lead the two markets. Sino-Singapore Communications opened higher and surged 7.90%, closing at 21.44 yuan. Daily trading volume expanded to 5 billion yuan.
The closing price of 21.44 yuan once again raised the total market value of Sino-Singapore Communications to over 100 billion yuan, while another 5G short-term leader, Oriental Holdings, closed at the daily limit as expected.
Oriental Holdings, whose daily trading volume has expanded to 400 million yuan, has ushered in its fourth daily limit in six trading days, fully demonstrating its leading qualities.
On the second day, Dongfang shares once again gained 5.47%, with both the intraday highest price and closing price refreshing the highs of November 29, showing a breakthrough.
In the following two trading days, the market entered an adjustment mode due to the impact of the US stock market's plunge of nearly 800 points. Dongfang shares also began its retracement after the breakthrough.
On Tuesday evening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 800 points during intraday trading, and the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks recorded its biggest single-day drop since November 2011.
The collective plunge of large technology stocks such as Apple, Google, and Nvidia, the inverted yield curve of U.S. Treasury bonds, the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and other factors are the main factors causing the U.S. stock market to plummet again.
Of course, there are also tweets from the President.
The renewed plunge in US stocks made investors realize that although the two sides have temporarily stopped escalating the situation, things do not seem to be that simple.
The friction over the past year has had a serious impact on the economies of both sides. It may not be easy to recover in a short period of time.
Even with the support of such major positive news, A-shares failed to break through the 2,700-point high set in November despite a sharp rise on the first trading day.
Even though the gap is less than 30 points, it has not been broken for several trading days.
As the saying goes, the first push is strong, the second is weak, and the third is exhausted; several days of continuous adjustments have made investors begin to sober up.
In the past December, the performance of A-shares has not been very good.
On Friday, although the Shanghai Composite Index closed up slightly by 0.03%, it still failed to hold the 10-day daily line, and there is still a long distance from recovering to the 5-day line position.
The market was very disappointed with the high opening and low closing trend in the first week of December.
But this does not include investors who hold Oriental Holdings shares. On December 7, Oriental Holdings, which had adjusted to the 10-day line for two consecutive trading days, once again hit the daily limit against the market trend!
On Monday, December 10, despite the positive factors over the weekend, the Shanghai Composite Index still gapped down and closed down 0.83%, once again falling below 2,600 points.
The repeated fluctuations of the 2600 point level, the frequent breakouts and today's downward gap, although only a small drop, are enough to give investors a big warning.
In a weak market, where there is no way to break through, there is no other way but to continue to fall.
Judging from the performance of the market today, the favorable policies to rescue the market over the weekend are no longer sufficient to stimulate the market's ups and downs. It is imperative to continue to explore the bottom and find the real bottom of the market.
5G leader Dongfang Shares once again closed at the upper limit today. This is the second time that Dongfang Shares has closed at the upper limit since the rebound in October, triggering a scramble for hot money.
On Tuesday, December 11, Dongfang Holdings opened higher and within just 15 minutes, the share price was firmly locked above the daily limit.
The price of 7.70 yuan has risen by 108% compared to the low of 3.70 yuan on October 19!
In less than two months since the market bottomed out, Dongfang shares have doubled for the first time. In fact, it has only been 12 trading days since its launch to the current price of 7.70 yuan.
Institutions such as Junshi Capital locked in shares at the bottom, and many well-known hot money investors participated in the rally, achieving two consecutive three-day gains.
The listed company took advantage of the situation and jumped on the hottest sector at the moment, and its market cap is not large; Oriental Holdings already possesses all the qualities of a popular leader in the sector.
If another company denies the three consecutive statements or reduces its holdings, then everything will be fine.
The three main factors that led to the emergence of "monster stocks" in 2018: poor performance, concept-riding, and major shareholders reducing their holdings.
Moreover, most of the monster stocks appear when the market enters the adjustment period, and the market sentiment is maintained by the situation of monster stocks.
In the remaining trading days of December, although Dongfang Holdings entered a state of adjustment after the first round of doubling, it was still much stronger than the continued downward trend of the broader market.
As of Friday, December 21, during the two-week adjustment period, the share price of Oriental shares hit a low of 6.89 yuan, and on December 21, it once again refreshed its two-week high.
On December 21, Dongfang shares opened low and ended high, with an amplitude of 10.37%, rising to a high of 8.05 yuan during the session and finally closing at 7.72 yuan.
Whether it is amplitude, turnover rate, trading volume, intraday price or closing price, they are all higher than the last daily limit day during the second round of three consecutive days.
A large-volume positive line with a long upper shadow and bare feet, like a fairy pointing the way, provides all the necessary technical indicators for the stock price to rise again.
During the period when Oriental Holdings was going against the market trend, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to fall. At the close of the day, the index closed at 2516.25 points, and even fell below the 2500 point mark during the session.
Since the rebound this month, the highest point of the Shanghai Composite Index is only 2666.08 points. The decline in the past half month has once again brought the market back to the closing position on October 19.
The upward gap between October 19 and October 22 has also been successfully filled.
No matter how low the upward gap is, our A-share market has always adhered to the principle of filling the gap and will never make any exceptions.
Over the past half month, various market news and policies have been unable to stop the decline of the broader market, which has continued on the path of correction without looking back.
The specific reason is that the speed and attention of the Science and Technology Innovation Board have far exceeded market expectations. In the short term, the market still regards the arrival of the Science and Technology Innovation Board as negative.
After all, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is benchmarked against the ChiNext. It is not some small concept hype topic, but a serious sector.
The birth of a sector is bound to involve a large amount of fresh blood. Considering the current market trading volume, diverting part of the funds to the Science and Technology Innovation Board is a very unstable factor.
On December 24, the Shanghai Composite Index opened low and ended high throughout the day, rising 0.43%, ending four consecutive positive trends at the daily level.
Dongfang Shares, which had already been on the rise, opened with a gap-up increase of 2.33% and once again hit the daily limit at 10:09, with the share price at 8.49 yuan!
The price of 8.49 yuan has also refreshed the highest price of Oriental Shares this year. All the chips purchased after March 2017 have realized profits as of today!
"I have held it for a year and a half, and finally got out of the trap at 8.15 yuan. I am in tears. I am grateful to the main force. Today's limit was closed in a powerful way. If there is another limit tomorrow, I will sell it. I will not be greedy anymore."
"With the same cost of 8.1 yuan, I didn't expect there would be a day to get out of the trap. In more than a year, I experienced a halving and a recovery. I sold it today. I don't want to wait any longer. I can't bear it. I will never trade stocks again."
"You guys are happy to get out of the trap, but I don't know when I can get out of the trap as my cost is over 10 yuan. I just hope it can keep rising for a few more days, preferably for three consecutive days, so that I can get out with less loss."
The third quarter report shows that Oriental Holdings, which has a capital of 1.25 billion shares, has only 81,221 shareholders, not including Junshi Value Investment, which has been secretly absorbing shares.
According to the third quarter report, due to the volume restrictions, Junshi Value Investment's purchase volume was not enough to appear in the list of top ten shareholders. The increase in trading volume in November was the real time for Junshi Value Investment to build a position.
With a capital base of 1.25 billion shares, there are only more than 80,000 shareholders. Apart from the controlling shareholders, there are very few retail investors who can hold on.
To be honest, these retail investors are all ruthless people. They are able to hold on to a stock even when its performance is not outstanding and its share price has been cut in half or more. Whether they are acting like an ostrich or something else, it is a skill.
According to the third quarter report, the largest circulating shareholder of Orient Holdings is the state team, with China Securities Finance Corporation and China Investment Corporation holding a total of 3.93% of the shares.
However, it is hard to say who the largest circulating shareholder is nowadays.
In the first half of December, under the premise that the trading volume and turnover rate of Oriental Holdings continued to rise, although Junshi Price Investment also did T behavior during the day, it was mainly focused on accumulating funds.
As of today, Junshi Value Investment holds a total of 47.5 million shares of Oriental Holdings, and its cost has also risen to 6.12 yuan, with a total investment of 291 million yuan to build the position.
As of today, the market value of Oriental shares held by Junshi Value Investment has exceeded 400 million yuan, and the profit has reached 38.73%!
If the national team sells a part of its shares during this round of rally, then Junshi Price Investment will very likely become the largest circulating shareholder!
In fact, the reason why Junshi Value Investment's shareholdings have continued to increase over the past two months is most likely due to the continuous withdrawal of funds and institutions from Oriental Holdings' holdings.
Although Dongfang Holdings has a total share capital of 1.25 billion shares, the major shareholder alone holds 45.439% of the shares, and the top ten shareholders hold more than 52% of the shares.
Including some large and small funds that are not among the top ten circulating shareholders, the chip lock-up rate of Oriental Holdings should exceed 60%.
The chips are highly locked. Even though Oriental Shares has been hyped up to the point where its market value has exceeded 10 billion yuan, its actual circulating market value is only about 4 billion yuan.
An average daily trading volume of more than 500 million yuan has already exceeded 10% of the market value. Once the sentiment is raised, it is very easy to push it up.
High chip concentration and low retail investor participation are also major factors that determine a stock is a monster.
Generally speaking, retail investors dare not participate in this kind of early-stage increase. The more it rises, the more afraid they are, and the more afraid they are, the more it rises. This is a reflection of the mentality of retail investors' short-term trading.
When seeing the stock price double and appear at the top of the short-term gainer list, most retail investors' first reaction is not to dare to buy in.
Those retail investors who are bolder and buy in when the price is low will not be able to hold on for more than a few days. An adjustment can easily wipe out all the retail investors.
There have been quite a few ten-fold stocks in recent years, and there must be many retail investors who have profited from them.
But in Gu Junhao's opinion, there are not necessarily many retail investors who reap huge profits during the large-scale rise.
20% of investors made a profit, 10% of investors broke even, and 70% of investors suffered losses. As one of the 20%, Gu Junhao was no worse than hot money in grasping the mentality of retail investors and market sentiment.
At the close of the day, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a special meeting on the launch of the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The Science and Technology Innovation Board, which has officially entered the discussion process, has entered an acceleration period, just like Oriental Holdings.
December 25th.
The index, which had just ended four consecutive declines, fell again as the news spread. The Shanghai Composite Index once again entered the extreme pulling process of the positive energy 2,500 points.
Dongfang Shares, which entered the acceleration period, still had an upward gap. After that, Dongfang Shares fluctuated at a high level throughout the day. At 2 o'clock in the afternoon, the share price was 9.34 yuan, and it hit the daily limit again, achieving two consecutive limits.
Today is the first time that Oriental Holdings has not hit the daily limit in the morning since its first daily limit at the end of November. The share price of 9.34 yuan has exceeded the highest price for the whole year of 2017.
While achieving a big positive reversal at the annual line position, it also brought a lot of pressure to unwind positions for Oriental Holdings. Today's divergence can be clearly felt from the turnover rate of 10.72% throughout the day and the trading volume of 925 million yuan.
On Wednesday, December 26, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down again and still failed to regain the 2,500 point mark. Dongfang Holdings, which had already felt the divergence yesterday, was experiencing quite strong volatility today.
Dongfang shares, which opened high throughout the day and hit the daily limit, plunged in the afternoon and finally closed at 9.48 yuan with a 1.50% increase.
Oriental Holdings showed a high-volume false cross-negative line on the K-line, and its turnover rate and trading volume both set new records since its listing.
If it weren't for the memories of his past life, Gu Junhao, whose profits had already exceeded 50%, would choose to reduce his positions and take profits on part of his positions at this time of major disagreement.
For the remaining positions, keep them for later observation. If things go well, continue to hold them. If things go badly, just clear the positions and leave.
However, Gu Junhao is relatively clear about the trend of Oriental Holdings' stock. Before the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report are released, Gu Junhao will definitely take part of the profit.
But it is definitely not now, so although it also participated in T today, Junshi Price Investment still holds one share.
On December 27, Dongfang shares continued to open high at 9.59 yuan. After a slight decline, it quickly rose again to 9.92 yuan, with a real-time increase of 4.64%.
It easily entered into an overall state of sideways fluctuation, digesting yesterday's divergent funds.
The Shanghai Composite Index opened sharply higher by more than 1% and passed 2,500 points in the early trading session, but its performance was very poor. Since the opening, the index opened high and closed low, without any rebound throughout the day.
At two o'clock in the afternoon, the Shanghai Composite Index had turned green and accelerated its dive. Orient Holdings also moved at the same time!
The market turned from divergence to consensus and began to accelerate its rise. The accelerated dive of the market, to a certain extent, promoted the return of short-term hot money to the stocks.
In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2482.09 points with a drop of 0.61%, almost completely wiping out the rebound since October 19.
Orient Holdings' shares closed at 10.43 yuan, setting a new high with a trading volume of 1.17 billion yuan and once again achieving the daily limit.
Friday, December 28, is the last trading day of 2018.
Dongfang shares rose for two consecutive days, with the share price at 11.47 yuan, ending the full year of 2018 with a monthly increase of 103.01% and an annual increase of 58.64%.
Investors who bought in 2016 and 2017 and have held on to the present day did not expect that in the bear market environment of 2018, the stocks they held would actually recover their investment and realize profits!
And this is just the beginning for Dongfang Holdings!
