Chapter 465: Historic Moment
There are only five days left in October. Normally, the earlier the financial report is released, the better the performance will be.
People with excellent grades are always the easiest to show off. It's human nature.
The financial reports released this weekend are considered to be among the better ones, but if they are left until the 31st, the last day to be released, most of them will not be very good.
During this week's earnings report period, in addition to Junshi Capital's outstanding performance in the market, the movements of the national team are of great concern.
At the end of the third quarter report, among the companies that have already disclosed their quarterly reports, it can be clearly seen that the national team, led by China Securities Finance Corporation, has made significant changes in its shareholding strategy.
According to statistics in this year's semi-annual report, the shareholding ratio of China Securities Finance Corporation appeared most frequently at around 4.90%, just below the threshold for raising the flag.
Among them, 57 companies have a shareholding ratio of 4.90%, and in the latest third-quarter report, as of today, there are only two securities companies with a shareholding ratio of 4.90%.
The number of companies with a shareholding of 2.99% increased from 7 in the semi-annual report time to 21.
Among these 21 companies, most are traditional blue-chip stocks, with the largest number of them being in the financial sector, with 6 companies.
Since the market rescue in July 2015, the national team has established a total of five rescue funds, and currently three of them have not yet announced their third quarter reports.
Among the two funds that have been announced, relevant media revealed that the shares of one of them dropped from 12.01 billion at the beginning of the period to 104 million shares at the end of September.
That is to say, 99% of the fund shares have been redeemed. At the same time, the warning issued shows that the number of fund holders has been less than 200 for 20 consecutive working days.
Another fund also withdrew in the same manner, and rumors that the national team was suspected of clearing its positions spread widely on the last day of this weekend.
From this, the market infers that the national team has already taken measures that appear to have cleared its inventory!
However, as the news spread, the national team responded quickly and released specific data. Since their establishment in July 2015, the five rescue funds have been operating stably.
As of the end of 2017, the total net asset value of the five rescue funds was 250.226 billion yuan, with a total floating profit of 50.262 billion yuan, and the yield rate far exceeded the CSI 300 Index.
There was a response, but it didn’t seem like there was any response. It only said that it was the assets at the end of 2017, and it was linked to the decline in shareholdings of major listed companies in the third quarter report.
In fact, it is not difficult to see that the national team is really beginning to gradually withdraw from the plan.
Some people even speculated that the sharp drop at the end of January was most likely caused by its implementation of the exit plan.
In addition to the impact of unstable factors such as suspected withdrawal, on the evening of the 28th, another piece of news that exceeded market expectations was widely spread.
At 7 o'clock in the evening, Maotai Liquor Industry officially announced its third quarter financial report for 2018. Once it was released, it caused an uproar in the market!
Maotai's third quarter report showed that its revenue only increased by 3.81% year-on-year, and its net profit only increased by 2.71% year-on-year, with almost no growth in revenue and net profit.
If this performance were to happen to Mao Tai, it would definitely be a performance landmine.
The consensus expectation given by the market is that Maotai’s full-year revenue and profit growth in 2018 will be around 30%. In the first half of the year, Maotai’s revenue and profit growth has reached 40%.
In other words, in the second half of the year, Maotai needs both its performance and profits to grow by more than 20% in order to meet market expectations.
Moreover, since 2016, for 11 consecutive quarters, Maotai's quarterly growth rate has never been lower than 10%.
In the third quarter of 2017, Maotai's revenue and profit growth rates both doubled to 115% and 138.41% respectively.
From 2017 to the first six quarters of the first half of 2018, the growth rate of gross units has never been lower than 30%, which is why the market has high expectations.
In the case of almost no growth in the third quarter, Maotai needs to achieve a growth of more than 50% in both revenue and profit in the fourth quarter in order to meet its full-year performance expectations.
Obviously, this is a difficult task.
As soon as Maotai's performance was released, major institutions responded in a short period of time. CICC quickly lowered Maotai's target price from the previous forecast of 925 yuan to 900 yuan.
China Merchants Food is more aggressive, directly lowering the target price to 670 yuan and maintaining the recommendation rating at -A.
As of the close of October 26, Maotai’s share price closed at 610.10 yuan. According to China Merchants Food’s forecast, Maotai’s share price growth rate will be less than 10%!
Ms. Li of Banxia Investment even publicly posted: "Maotai's performance exploded, and an era ended."
He publicly shorted consumer stocks led by Mao Tai, claiming that the investment logic of A-shares has changed over the past 20 years.
"MD, don't these idiots need to sleep? They are singing bearish songs in the middle of the night, one by one."
At this time, Gu Junhao was also at home paying attention to the information on the Internet. Maotai’s financial report has always been a weather vane for the sector.
As a sector where Junshi Group is about to build a position, it is impossible for Gu Junhao not to pay attention to its financial report. He will wait even if it is late.
According to the third quarter report, large institutions including the national team and social security funds hold nearly 1 billion shares of Maotai in total, and nearly 100 large and small funds hold a total of 51.7699 million shares of Maotai.
Under Hua Xia Fund alone, there are 29 funds of all sizes holding Mao Tai, with a total holding of 8.9375 million shares.
There is no doubt that the market crash in the past few trading days was probably caused by these funds; this week, the total amount of funds lost was nearly 26 billion yuan.
The transaction volume is nearly 12 billion yuan higher than the previous half, which means that some institutions have started to run away early.
After the official release of the results, these large and small institutions began to sing bearish tunes, saying that the valuation of China Merchants Food was simply outrageous.
Even if Maotai's performance and profit growth in the fourth quarter are the same as in the third quarter, with no growth, the performance and profit of the entire industry are not low, and the predicted price will not be 670 yuan.
Compared with CICC's lowering of the estimated price to 900 yuan, the estimated price of 670 yuan is simply outrageous!
It's outrageous!
Ms. Li, who is bearish on the entire A-share investment logic, is well-known for her reputation.
Summarizing various pieces of information, Gu Junhao also witnessed the cruelty of the capital market. The national team's withdrawal plan had already been announced, and it was not a matter of one or two days.
However, it was questioned by major media this weekend. Combined with Maotai's third quarter report and the sharp drop in the past few days, major stock market analysts and celebrities collectively sounded bearish.
Only a few hours after Maotai’s quarterly report came out, bearish research reports began to emerge like mushrooms after a rain, as if they had been written in advance.
All the information is summarized into three words: "Cut the leeks!"
This is a collaboration of large institutions. New rescue measures are being implemented step by step. The market is improving step by step, and on Friday it even got rid of the influence of US stocks.
Under such circumstances, the trend of A-shares will only get better and better, and most of the trapped investors have regained hope of getting out of the trap or even making a profit.
A-shares are regaining popularity; everything shows that the rebound trend is positive.
Under such circumstances, ordinary investors will certainly be unwilling to sell their chips. But what should those institutions that missed the opportunity before do if they want to buy enough chips?
Create panic!
The previous sudden plunge of the market without any negative news was a process of creating panic; and this weekend, it was another one.
Even if the national team responded and reiterated its plans, it would be of no avail.
"Oh, it's so difficult to be a stock investor, and it's even more difficult to be an A-share investor." Gu Junhao sighed while analyzing various data.
Even if he knew this would be the result, Gu Junhao couldn't just come out and refute the media's comments.
Moreover, this is also in line with the interests of Gu Junhao and Junshi Capital to a certain extent. Now that Gu Junhao has become a member of the institution, the only thing he can do is not to tell lies.
On Monday, October 29, 2018, Gu Junhao witnessed history once again!
At 9:25, the call auction ended, and Maotai Liquor Industry opened at a rare limit down, with the share price at 549.09 yuan.
In one call auction, Maotai’s market value evaporated by 76.6 billion yuan, and its total market value fell below 700 billion yuan.
There are more than 70,000 lots and 4 billion of funds waiting to be sold on the limit-down board. If the stock price of Maotai closes at the limit-down today, it will be the first limit-down since its listing.
Since September 2, 2013, although Maotai has had intraday limit downs several times, it has never closed at the limit down price. It is the first time in history that the stock price opened at the limit down!
Maotai opened at the limit down, and the big consumer stocks including the liquor sector were certainly not much better.
Among the liquor sector, Yanghe Liquor, Gujin Gongjiu, Shuijing Group, Wuliangye, Fenjiu Group, Shunxin Group, and Yili Group all opened at the limit down.
The entire liquor sector opened at the limit down, and blue-chip stocks in the consumer sector were also affected.
Companies such as Midea, Gree, and Haitian all opened with a sharp drop, and Angel Shares, which had previously suffered a performance explosion, also hit the limit down again.
In addition, banks and insurance companies also opened lower, and the three major indexes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets also opened lower due to this.
In the trading room, Gu Junhao looked at the scene in the two markets after the call auction and couldn't help but sigh:
"How ruthless! These people are using billions of dollars to leverage the entire market. Under these circumstances, retail investors can really survive in the A-share market if they don't run away."
"It's really scary, but the overall market is not that bad. The stocks we hold, such as Ning Wang, Zhongxin Telecom, and Dongfang Wealth, are not bad at all."
At today's opening, a series of GEM stocks such as Ningwang, Dongfang Fortune, and Tonghuashun opened higher against the market trend, while China News Service opened at a flat price.
"The overall trend has not changed, it's just a deliberate attempt to create panic; but it will definitely still be affected to some extent."
"Today, some people are building positions in the liquor sector, while others can increase their efforts in T trading. This is also a good opportunity."
At present, the orders for Maotai are already increasing; to be honest, Gu Junhao could have taken all the previous 70,000 buy orders on his own.
On the Junshi Price Investment side, the current total scale is around 25 billion yuan. According to the 10% position plan, Maotai can buy 2.5 billion yuan.
The current reserved 30% position, or approximately 7.5 billion yuan in cash, will be used entirely in the liquor sector.
Today's collective limit down gave me a good opportunity to build a position, not to mention Junshi No. 2 and proprietary trading.
In his proprietary account, Gu Junhao did not plan to buy much in the liquor sector, but he was still prepared to allocate some to Maotai and Wuliangye.
It doesn't matter how much, but having it is enough.
Therefore, if Gu Junhao makes up his mind to buy today, it is entirely possible that Maotai will break the limit down.
However, this cannot be done. If you do it, people will hate you.
They have set up such a big trap, and if you, as a colleague, go and disturb it, you will easily be beaten up.
Just follow behind and secretly pick up the bargains.
At 9:30, Gu Junhao gave an order: "Maotai, Wuliangye, Fenjiu, Gujin Gongjiu, Luzhou Liquor, start buying according to our rhythm."
This time, Junshi Value Investment only plans to buy five liquor stocks, focusing mainly on the leading liquor companies. Gu Junhao is not planning to cast a wider net anymore.
If the fund shares rise again in the future, and these five stocks buy 10% of the shares, and the shares of those liquors are still at a low level.
At that time, Gu Junhao will buy again and get the top chips at this historic moment.
The continued decline of the large consumer sector has seriously affected the trend of the main board, especially the Shanghai Composite Index. The Shanghai Composite Index shows no signs of rebound and continues to decline.
However, the ChiNext Index performed well; at 9:40, the ChiNext Index, which had fallen to around 1,250 points, quickly rebounded as heavyweight stocks such as Dongfang Fortune and Tonghuashun rose.
The Internet finance sector has been very active recently, and the 5G sector continues to play the role of bottoming out and rebounding.
China News Service opened at the flat price, fell slightly, and then rose by nearly 2% by 10 o'clock.
The share price of another future 5G stock remains around 4 yuan, maintaining low-level fluctuations.
Although the position has been established for nearly a month, the trading volume of Oriental shares has been too small during this month, and the total amount is less than 300 million yuan.
As a result, Junshi Value Investment did not appear in the latest list of top ten shareholders of this now unknown listed company.
Based on the current trading volume, it will probably take another month to buy enough shares.
For this reason, in order not to share the energy of traders, Gu Junhao is currently operating this stock himself. He just casually places an order there using the trading software, just to satisfy his own desire.
It depends on your preference whether you buy more or less; there’s no rush anyway.
I remember that when Junshi No. 1 was launched, Gu Junhao often operated it himself, playing the dual roles of fund manager and trader.
Gu Junhao also participated in the early establishment of Junshi No. 2 positions; but after the new traders took place, Gu Junhao rarely operated.
2017. Before October 2018, there had never been any transaction; this time, through Dongfang Shares, Gu Junhao could recall the past.
However, this sluggish trading volume is really meaningless. It is just a mechanical order placement and there is no feeling at all.
At the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to fall, and the ChiNext Index, which had turned positive, was dragged down and plunged again.
Maotai Liquor was unable to open all morning. Even though Junshi Group had been continuously buying, Maotai's trading volume in the morning exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, but the orders on the limit down board remained at around 70,000 lots.
"It seems that the main funds are determined to lock Maotai at the lower limit today. After working on it for a whole morning, the number is still 70,000, the same as the opening data."
I have to say, this behavior is really dog-like.
At the same time, Gu Junhao was also glad that he did not act on impulse to pry the floor of the Maotai. Judging from the situation of funds in the market, the floor was set to be closed today.
Even if Gu Junhao takes the lead, it may not be possible to break the limit down.
Sure enough, even if there are memories of past lives, what can it do? Apart from policies, the only things that can influence the trend of A-shares are the collective choices of big funds.
At the end of the day's trading, Maotai Liquor was still stuck at the lower limit, with a total transaction volume of more than 3.6 billion yuan, most of which was bought by Junshi Group.
There are still as many as 5 stocks in the entire liquor sector that hit the daily limit. Over the past five trading days, the overall market value of the liquor sector has shrunk by more than 340 billion yuan.
The Shanghai Composite Index was severely affected, plummeting 2.18% throughout the day and closing at 2542.10 points. The big rebounds on October 22 and October 25 have been completely swallowed up.
The Shanghai Composite Index once again fell below the five-day line and showed a breaking trend, and is still facing major tests.
The ChiNext Index was affected and continued to plunge in the afternoon, eventually closing down 1.01%, but its trend was still stronger than that of the Shanghai Composite Index, and it is currently supported by the 10-day line.
Popular stocks such as Dongfang Wealth and Tonghuashun rose against the market trend today. 5G leader Zhongxin Telecom, which performed well throughout the day, also rose by more than 1% against the market trend.
Ning Wang unexpectedly suffered a relatively large impact. Ning Wang opened high and closed low throughout the day, falling by more than 5%, which also dragged down the net value of Junshi Price Investment today.
After the closing, the entire market was discussing Maotai’s limit down, as well as the liquor sector and consumer goods categories that were hit hard.
Since it was listed on August 27, 2001, in more than ten years, Maotai's closing price has never hit the limit down, let alone this kind of limit down trend throughout the day.
Even a decline of more than 9% has only occurred three times in history, which shows how rare it is.
Maotai Liquor Industry, which should have appeared on the Dragon and Tiger list, fell to the limit and did not appear on the Dragon and Tiger list today. Instead, funds showed a net inflow.
Since its listing, Maotai's compound growth rate has been close to 140 times. Following the widespread bearish sentiment last night, Maotai, which hit the daily limit for the first time in history today, once again ushered in a bearish climax after the market closed.
Among those who are bearish, the largest number are private equity fund managers.
The price of crude oil is no longer attractive, which is the most discussed topic after the market today. This group of people dare to buy stocks with PE of hundreds or tens of thousands of times, even black swan stocks and ST stocks.
After today's trading, people started to question the PE of Maotai, which seems a bit ridiculous...
Some media also approached Gu Junhao to ask for his opinion. After all, between 2016 and 2017, Gu Junhao was known as the "Sauce-flavored Liquor Manager."
However, at the beginning of this year, the Junshi Group collectively cleared out its entire liquor sector, and there was no trace of liquor in the series of holdings announced previously.
Through this collective short-selling campaign, the media wanted Gu Junhao to express some opinions on the liquidation of the liquor sector at the beginning of the year.
However, all of these were rejected by Gu Junhao on the grounds that he had no time.
Are you kidding? Wouldn't it be nice to buy in secretly at such a good opportunity? Why do you have to jump out and say it's bullish? If you really want to say it's bullish, you might as well just seesaw today.
Whether the price limit can be hit is another matter, but at least the trading volume will increase and the chance of building a position in one go will be greater.
…
Tuesday, October 30, is the second-to-last trading day of the month.
Maotai Liquor opened at a share price of 510 yuan. Although it still fell by 7.66%, it at least broke the limit.
On the news front, after yesterday's close, the China Securities Regulatory Commission continued to call for boosting market confidence. Perhaps that was why Maotai did not open at the limit down again today.
There is nothing wrong in creating panic, but if you mess it up and it really becomes a panic, then there will be consequences.
You have to know that so many blue-chip stocks plummeted yesterday, and countless blue-chip stocks hit the daily limit, which scared retail investors.
Although there have been white horse stocks sacrificed to the sky before, but so many blue chip stocks hitting the limit down in one day is a scene that is rare even during the stock market crashes in 2015 and 2016.
"The market is open today, so the volume should increase. I will try to buy more and speed up the position building process."
During the call auction, Gu Junhao once again issued an order to speed up the pace of building a position in Maotai, and the stock price actually reached 500 yuan, and it only took two trading days.
I have to say that these institutions really helped Gu Junhao a lot. If it had followed the normal trend in the past, Maotai would be around 650 now.
In this case, Gu Junhao could only buy in with reluctance. There were only two months left in 2018, and there were not many days left for Gu Junhao to build a position.
After the transaction officially started, the buying power of more than 2.5 billion yuan pushed the price of Maotai stock to 524.90 yuan within two minutes, and the decline was instantly narrowed to less than 5%.
Several large orders worth thousands of shares were the masterpieces of the Junshi Group. During the morning meeting, Gu Junhao reiterated that the price of Maotai near 500 yuan was the best gift from God to the Junshi Group.
It would be fine if the market doesn’t open today. If it does, you don’t have to think so much. Just buy in large orders. It’s all a game between long and short anyway.
At 9:45, the decline in Maotai's stock price narrowed to around 3%. The wide range of fluctuations in Maotai seriously affected the trend of the liquor sector and the broader market.
The subsequent market crash was also extremely fierce. During the half-hour trading period, Maotai fell to a high of 509.02 yuan, falling below the opening price by nearly 8%.
An extremely long negative line with a large upper shadow scared the investors in the market. The Shanghai Composite Index plunged by more than 1% at one point, and the ChiNext Index fell by nearly 2% during the session.
"Fuck, is this going to hit the limit down again? These people are really ruthless."
"It's a drop, the trading volume is not as high as the opening, there's nothing to be afraid of, just buy it."
"Brother, if the trading volume is the same as the opening, then today's trading volume must be out of this world. Who can afford it with an opening volume of over 2 billion?"
"Why are you talking so much? My boss told me to buy, so I'll just buy. I'll try to finish building a position in Maotai today, and then I'll slowly work on other things later."
"That's too exciting. I didn't expect to see a limit down in the stock market again in my career. It's worth it, haha."
"Buy, buy, buy. Pull it up. We'll protect the market. Haha."
At the midday close, in addition to the entry of off-market funds, Maotai was once again pulled up to near the daily average yellow line, and the stock price closed at 518.15 yuan, down 5.63%.
With thousands of transactions, Maotai's turnover exceeded 5 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a strong desire to buy, and Junshi Group, as one of the representatives of domestic capital going long, competed with it for chips on the market.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were very unstable in the morning, and the three major indexes were at risk of breaking down again. In the afternoon, the major financial sector launched a market protection operation.
Securities firms took the lead, and banks and Internet finance sectors related to securities firms and finance collectively exploded. The three major indexes also began to turn red under the continued impact of the securities sector.
After many years, the securities sector has once again set off a surge in daily limit stocks. By the close of trading, a total of six securities stocks had hit the daily limit. The three major indexes also achieved a V-shaped reversal amid the securities boom.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%, and the auto parts sector also exploded today, with a total of more than 10 stocks hitting the daily limit.
Xushen Group, which increased its proprietary trading holdings, also followed the sector and surged by more than 8% today. Although the index did not rise much today, there were quite a few daily limit increases.
Popularity doesn’t seem to be that weak?
The battle between bulls and bears in the afternoon was still very fierce. Since the opening of the market at noon, the decline of Maotai has narrowed to less than 1.5%, and the volatility is still more than 4%.
Throughout the day, Maotai Liquor Industry's share price closed at 524 yuan, with a daily decline of 4.57%. The daily trading volume reached 10.6 billion yuan, accounting for 7% of the Shanghai Composite Index's total trading volume for the day.
After the market closed, Gu Junhao also summarized the Maotai he had bought in the past two days. With a transaction volume of more than 14 billion yuan in two days, Junshi Group was undoubtedly the main buying force for Maotai Liquor.
The three major sectors bought a total of more than 3.5 billion yuan in market value of Maotai Liquor, accounting for about 25% of the two-day trading volume.
Gu Junhao was very satisfied with the result: "Not bad, let's continue tomorrow and try to buy enough 10 billion yuan."
Based on the maximum holding standard of 2.5 billion yuan, Junshi Price Investment also expects to buy around 4 billion yuan of Junshi No. 2. In addition, Gu Junhao, a proprietary trader, plans to buy 3.5 billion yuan.
Gu Junhao used part of the 3.5 billion yuan in financing funds. Junshi Capital has already raised 3 billion yuan from banks, and the funds are currently being gradually credited to the account.
The price of a piece of corn is below 600 yuan, and the market value is less than 700 billion yuan. Considering the current size of Junshi Capital, it is reasonable to buy it for 10 billion yuan, right?
