Chapter 346 Private Equity Market Discussion
At the turn of the new year, it is not just Junshi Capital that is working on next year's market conditions. Most public and private equity institutions are also preparing for next year's market conditions.
This weekend, an authoritative financial management institution surveyed a number of mainstream private equity institutions, whose overall management scale accounted for 14% of the private equity industry .
The survey structure shows that most private equity institutions generally believe that the bull market pattern will remain unchanged, and the volatile pattern will most likely continue in 2016, but the market will be divided and the overall trend will no longer be.
In a situation where it is not possible to be bearish, this statement is already very clear.
The bull market pattern continues unchanged, and the stock market crash in 2015 is also part of the bull market.
The market continued to fluctuate and showed signs of differentiation, and the words between the lines showed a cautious attitude towards the market.
However, there are major differences among private equity institutions in terms of specific industry allocations.
Private equity institutions led by Danquan Water, Congyang Investment and Junshi Capital are more focused on blue chips and the investment value of industry leaders.
However, the vast majority of investment opportunities, including Henghua Investment, still tend to be high-quality growth stocks with upward potential.
Some private equity institutions have not given a clear investment direction. It is recommended that investors appropriately focus on institutions with themes such as reform, transformation, and innovation, arrange positions reasonably, and look for opportunities during volatility.
Most of these private equity institutions are such as Shen Da Investment, and their main focus is short-term and fast operations.
The article focuses on introducing the investment views of Junshi Capital, which is the hottest company in the market today.
Junshi Capital believes that the overall valuation of growth stocks represented by small and medium-sized enterprises is still relatively high, and the ChiNext as a whole still has a price-to-earnings ratio of 70 times.
The P/E ratio of the value investment weighted stock market represented by the CSI 300 is only 13 times. Junshi Capital will remain cautious about stocks in high-risk specific areas in the future.
As market risks further adjust, market style may also change, and undervalued value stocks will become more attractive. In the next few years, value investing may return to this stage.
Junshi Capital believes that the market has basically returned to a rational state after a half-year recovery period since the sharp drop in June.
After experiencing the stock market crash, both institutional investors and retail investors have a natural fear of chasing high prices in the short term.
The market has already clearly shown structural differences in valuations. On the one hand, there is a structural bubble, while on the other hand, some assets are clearly undervalued.
Based on the optimistic judgment on the medium- and long-term economic prospects, although A-share fluctuations will still exist in the short term, there is no need to be too pessimistic.
Once the market shows more obvious fluctuations, it will be a good opportunity to intervene in undervalued assets.
To borrow a saying from the market, "Risk comes from rising prices, while opportunities come from falling prices."
Investors should not be afraid of the adjustment of A-shares and should work hard to build their own mid- and long-term trading systems. There may be a harvest season at some point in the future.
Gu Junhao explicitly mentioned that Junshi Capital's investment direction will change with market changes and will no longer focus on small and medium-sized growth stocks.
Starting next year, Junshi Capital will return to value investing.
The research report even has a subtitle: "Junshi Capital founder accepts media interview for the first time."
The purpose is self-evident. Even authoritative financial management requires traffic. In the A-share investment market in 2015, Gu Junhao was one of the biggest traffic sources.
Gu Junhao, who grew up in an Internet environment, has more fans than all current private equity fund managers combined.
But what he said is true. This is indeed the first time that Gu Junhao has accepted an exclusive interview with a financial media.
Gu Junhao, who was relatively free last week, readily agreed to the interview invitation after receiving it.
What is mentioned in the article is basically consistent with the major viewpoints mentioned by Gu Junhao during the interview.
Of course, there are some things that cannot be made public, and the report has handled this aspect very well, after all, it is an authoritative financial institution.
The reason why Gu Junhao accepted the interview this time is not only because he himself has a certain authority in the industry, but also has a lot to do with the fact that most of the well-known private equity institutions in the country accepted the interview. At the end of the year, everyone is imagining the future.
Today, Junshi Capital is no longer the unknown company in the market as it was when it was first established, and it also needs to have its own voice.
Taking advantage of the right opportunity to make a certain voice to the outside world can also help maintain one's own position.
If nothing unexpected happens, the overall scale of Junshi No. 2 will become larger and larger, and it is only a matter of time before it becomes a private equity fund worth tens of billions.
Private equity firms with a scale of tens of billions can basically be called industry leaders.
By that time, every move of Junshi No. 2 will surely attract great attention from the market, and its specific holdings will naturally be widely followed by market investors.
Maybe at some point, if Junshi No. 2 appears in the industry of the top ten circulating shareholders of a certain stock, it may affect its stock price.
As expected, this private equity industry research report with a subtitle has attracted widespread attention on the Internet.
There are only four trading days left this year, and for investors, this year's investment experience has been a dream.
After experiencing the madness of 5,000 points, I also tasted the pain of 2,800 points.
For investors who have suffered heavy losses this year, it is impossible to make back their money in four trading days.
Just like the popular emoticon on the Internet, the return on investment interface will be added with 2015.
For investors who avoided the stock market crash this year and even retained some profits, the market in the second half of the year will also be difficult to predict.
As long as they don’t think about exiting the A-share market, everyone naturally has their own ideas about next year’s investment direction.
Will the bull market return in 2016? Will there be a chance to unwind the positions bought above 5,000 points? All these are what investors are concerned about.
In fact, since the stock market crash and the rebound at the end of the year, there are still some investors in the market who still have expectations for a bull market.
But in Gu Junhao's opinion, a general bull market like the one before the stock market crash from 2013 to 2015 is basically impossible to happen again.
In the future, whether it is the bull market of the return of value investment or the bull market in the new energy industry chain, it will only be a partial bull market.
Even under the premise that these two major sectors are bullish, there are still some stocks within the sectors that have not seen any increase or even have fallen.
In the future, the theme of A-shares will be the growth of local regions, and investors need to be well aware of this.
With the changes in the macroeconomic environment, the reduction of incremental off-market funds, and the final implementation of the registration system, this local bull market has reached its extreme.
It is possible that in a certain year, only one or two sectors rise, while other sectors are in a state of continuous decline.
Under such circumstances, investors must make changes very quickly and strive to make their positions more balanced.
For investors with smaller amounts of capital, heavily investing in a single stock or sector is indeed the fastest way to quickly expand their funds.
It is not impossible to do so, but in the current structural market conditions, we must pay attention to the risks.
Once you find something wrong, you should run away in time to ensure the safety of your funds and avoid significant losses of your principal.
Of course, what Gu Junhao talked about will not appear in the specific research report content.
Gu Junhao would never mention things like the circuit breaker would cause a sharp drop in prices.
The market does not allow bearish sentiment. How to better remind investors through words or actions depends on the writing skills of the article editor.
“It’s quite good to be able to write down that adjustments are opportunities and specific investment directions.”
On the weekend, Gu Junhao was browsing the research report on his computer at home and said to Zhang Yiru with a smile.
In fact, for full-time stock traders, if they can maintain a stable income, they will have relatively more free time to spend with their family.
After all, most A-shares are in a bear market phase, and the real bull market generally only lasts for two years at most.
In a bear market, it is impossible for local trading space to be fully scheduled every trading day.
As far as Gu Junhao knows, some individual investors even choose to take a vacation after earning enough income for a year.
Especially in the second half of this year's stock market crash, some individual investors who made a lot of money chose to take a break in the second half of the year.
Even a private equity fund manager like Gu Junhao will have a lot of free time as long as you want.
Just like this week, Gu Junhao spent less time at the company than at home.
"Look at you showing off. You are a celebrity now. How does it feel to be interviewed? Did they ask you some personal gossip?"
Zhang Yiru looked at Gu Junhao and said with a smile.
"It's OK. For a formal interview with a strong professional sense, they don't pay much attention to this aspect. I've already made arrangements before the interview. Besides, there's nothing to gossip about me. My information has been almost completely dug up online."
"That's right, my mom often shares some gossip about you with me, haha."
"Ah? There is such a thing? How come I didn't know about it? I have never seen such a loving family in the crowd."
Probably everyone in life has a WeChat group chat like "A Loving Family" to share some weird topics.
"What are you thinking? My mom was a teacher before she retired. She would never share this kind of gossip in the group. She only showed it to me in private."
Since Gu Junhao became more and more popular in Ningbo, most of his former friends have been unable to contact him. However, it is not so easy to escape from Zhang Mingde and his wife and Aunt Huang in Jiangbei.
After Junshi No. 1 was liquidated and dividends were distributed, somehow the news that Zhang Mingde and his wife received 2 million yuan in profits with 200,000 yuan spread in the school.
Some colleagues who did not have enough funds but wanted to participate in the subscription on their own came to Zhang Mingde and his wife.
Zhang Mingde was easy to deal with, but Qin Ruolan was a little overwhelmed.
Women always have a few good girlfriends. When she couldn't handle it, she asked Zhang Yiru to find Gu Junhao. However, Junshi No. 2 was in a closed period at that time, so Zhang Yiru refused.
After Junshi No. 2 was opened for subscription, the subscription quota was raised to more than 5 million, and there was no need to subscribe anymore. In order to avoid unnecessary trouble, Qin Ruolan also applied for retirement in advance.
In fact, deep down, Qin Ruolan had long wanted to apply for early retirement. Unlike Zhang Mingde's passion for education, Qin Ruolan wanted to enjoy her retirement life earlier.
This time, it was just an inducement. For most women, life is more important than work.
In this regard, Zhang Yiru's personality is somewhat similar to her mother. She does not have high demands on work. Having a stable job that can pass the time is enough for her.
Now, with the support of Gu Junhao's personal account and Junshi Capital Fund Investment Management Bank, Zhang Yiru can already start her life of recuperation in advance.
You just need to punch in to work every day and don’t need to attract and maintain clients like other managers.
However, this is how social resources work. When you don’t need to work hard, results will often come to you.
Some customers who are on good terms with Gu Junhao will even take the initiative to hand over their remaining funds to the bank where Zhang Yiru works.
Of course, this achievement naturally belongs to Zhang Yiru.
The investment custody and fund custody of Gu Junhao's personal account are both in the branch where Zhang Yiru is located, which also creates an interesting phenomenon.
That is, how much money Gu Junhao has now, Zhang Yiru knows it better than Gu Junhao himself. The money in the bank is not just there, Gu Junhao will also buy financial products from the bank.
Gu Junhao's first media interview did attract the attention of many investors. On Saturday morning, not only were Gu Junhao and his wife sitting at home reading the article about their interview, but his fans and colleagues were also paying attention to what opinions Gu Junhao actually expressed.
"Hehe, that's quite interesting. Manager Gu, who made his fortune in small and medium-sized growth stocks, has now transformed into value investing. No wonder the net value of Junshi No. 2 has fluctuated so little recently."
"Doing value investing? Isn't this a joke? This is what public funds do. Are we private equity firms doing this? Do you really think you are a private equity firm worth tens of billions of dollars?"
"I guess these investors will cry when they see this kind of remarks. Isn't the reason they invest in his fund because of his super high returns? How can value investing be super high?"
"Haha? Is Brother T also laughing and singing the praises of blue chips? It seems that Brother T has really changed. The dragon slayer eventually becomes the dragon. Hasn't Hearse screwed people over badly enough this year?"
"Value investing, buying blue chip stocks? The hearse is a lesson for us! Even dogs won't buy blue chip stocks!"
"Yes, Brother T holds shares in Longji shares in his personal account and has become one of the top ten shareholders. Longji is just a blue chip stock, not even the industry leader!"
"Alas, once people have money, they change. They are no longer the Brother T who looks for opportunities to remind stockholders on the Dragon and Tiger List, nor are they the Brother T who unleashed the high-level pledge of Tong Huashun to remind the leeks."
"There's nothing we can do. Brother T is already qualified to participate in the rescue. The environment changes people. I guess buying Longji is mainly for the rescue. Anyway, losing this little money is nothing to Brother T."
"Stupid! The market hasn't even started for next year yet and you're already slandering Brother T. When Brother T was rescuing the market, he posted a message and the market rebounded the next day. Have you forgotten?"
"That's right. According to what Brother T bought at that time, I wouldn't say I just bought any stock. Most of the stocks I bought have made a profit now, right?"
"You have to understand that Brother T is not a hot money investor. Even when he was in Taogu Bar, Brother T was a medium- to long-term holder. The behavior of buying today and selling tomorrow does not exist in Brother T, so the market trend of one or two days is useless!"
"That's right. When the index is below 3,000, a dynamic reminder will be issued to buy at the bottom. Now it is 3,600 points. If you buy an ETF, you will make money."
For a while, both sides launched a heated discussion online about Gu Junhao's remarks.
Some people believe that with the improvement of his social status and personal wealth, Gu Junhao is no longer the Brother T who was close to retail investors in Taogu Bar.
However, some fans insist that Gu Junhao's views are still trustworthy. At least his behavior of suggesting bottom buying after the stock market crash proves that Brother T still maintains his original intention.
