Chapter 345 Investment Plan for 2016
On the evening of December 18, Nvidia's stock price, which had been rising frequently, fell for the second consecutive trading day, with the stock price falling to US$32.14, finally showing signs of reaching a short-term peak.
For several consecutive trading days, Nvidia's performance has been less than ideal, but it has not experienced the big ups and downs of A-shares. Its trend has been very smooth, which is somewhat similar to the recent trend of Maotai.
The so-called big drops and big rises are only within a 3% increase or decrease. This kind of trend is Gu Junhao's favorite.
In fact, as far as US stocks are concerned, Tesla's share price has also risen significantly, but its stock price fluctuates too much during the day. In addition, it has a founder with a distinct personality, and every speech will cause great fluctuations in the stock price. This is actually very unfavorable for investors.
Nvidia has finally shown signs of adjustment, and the end of the year is approaching. This is very good news for Gu Junhao, who expects to make big strides in the US stock market next year.
After all, there was actually nothing remarkable about the A-shares in 2016. Apart from the blue-chip stocks that were popular for a period of time, there were not as many stocks that could become famous as in 2015.
As far as I can remember, the most famous stock in 2016 was probably the Shuangma Group, which could be considered the annual monster stock of 2016.
Under the leadership of Shuangma Group, the performance of cement slabs in 2016 was also good, which is also in line with the cyclical nature of the sharp rise in housing prices in 2016.
The life cycle of housing prices affects not only the real estate industry, but also a series of raw materials such as cement, home appliances, decoration and other industries along its industrial chain.
For stock selection in 2016, you can also start from this aspect and select some blue-chip stocks in surrounding industries to enrich the investment categories of Junshi No. 2.
As the amount of capital became too large, the era of playing with big positions in hot stocks has ended for Gu Junhao.
In fact, I have encountered this situation in my previous life. I have bought some monster stocks before, but the positions I could participate in were very limited.
The profits earned from the monster stocks cannot be said to be dispensable to Gu Junhao, but they have little impact either.
In my previous life, the intraday fluctuations of my account were often kept below 3%, and large intraday increases were very rare. If I held a large position in bank stocks, the fluctuations would be even smaller.
Every year, Gu Junhao would choose to take a break from his first position and buy a large amount of bank stocks, waiting for dividends and rights issues. If the increase is larger than the dividend, he would choose to sell.
When he is bored, Gu Junhao will use a small account to trade some of the hottest stocks in the market, which can keep him in touch with the market and make him less bored.
People who have been speculating in stocks for a long time actually lead a pretty dull life when they are not watching the market, which is one of the reasons why most retail investors who say they want to exit the stock market will eventually come back.
In the stock trading market, if you can endure loneliness, you have already defeated most investors.
The net value of Junshi No. 2 announced this week once again showed two completely different trends from last week. The latest net value data on December 18 showed that the overall scale of Junshi No. 2 exceeded 6.48 billion yuan and the net value reached 4.6391.
Compared with last week, the fund size increased by 3.27%, once again setting a new record for a significant increase, but the overall increase still underperformed the two market indices.
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.2% to 3578.66 points, and the ChiNext Index rebounded sharply by 5.95% this week, returning to above 2800 points to 2830.26%.
For a fund with a scale of more than 6 billion yuan, its size is there, and the growth rate of more than 3% within a week is not bad at all.
But people in the industry just don’t understand why Gu Junhao always wants to control the increase within a certain range, and what exactly makes him do so.
In fact, the discussions of industry insiders have also reached Gu Junhao's ears, although Gu Junhao rarely participates in industry exchange meetings.
However, as the fund size has grown to date, and Junshi Capital has a large amount of cash flow, Gu Junhao's personal assets are also mainly based on a large amount of cash flow.
After the status was improved, the initial unsociable attitude and the fund's unique charging model turned into a low-key personality and confidence in one's own trading abilities.
This is the same principle as when a poor person lives in a busy city, no one cares about him, but when a rich person lives in a remote mountain area, he has distant relatives. When peers and investors discuss the performance of Gu Junhao and Junshi No. 2, someone will always tell them.
Gu Junhao was also helpless about this situation. There were still nine trading days left until the end of 2015, and the fund fluctuations this week were still due to the sharp rise in Vanke and the rebound of the entire liquor sector.
Starting from next week, Vanke will be suspended again, and then Vanke will enter into off-market gambling. The off-market gambling has little impact on Vanke's shareholders or the general public.
The real life-and-death struggle is between the attackers and defenders who are deeply involved in it. Just this weekend, Vanke's management responded quickly and went straight to the core, which is Baoneng's capital chain problem.
As the dispute between the two parties has aroused great concern in the market, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has previously issued a letter of concern to Ju Shenghua, requiring Ju Shenghua to provide detailed explanations on the source of funds for its stake in Vanke.
This week, Vanke’s management announced that it had hired a professional organization to investigate the financing situation of the Baoneng Group. This was the first move made by the Vanke management.
The suspension also affects the operating mode of Junshi No. 2; the suspension of Vanke has resulted in Junshi No. 2 currently having only two holdings left that can be traded normally.
Speaking of which, although Gu Junhao avoided the suspension of thousands of stocks during the stock market crash this year, he also experienced several suspensions.
Among them, Dongfang Wealth was suspended twice, Yinzhijie once, Wuliangye once; and the current one is Vanke.
For the market in 2015, suspension of trading was really the norm, which was quite unfavorable for the turnover rate of funds, especially for highly leveraged funds like Baoneng.
Once the stock is suspended, you still have to pay interest while the funds cannot flow. Since the Baoneng Group has mobilized so much funds, the suspension is actually quite fatal.
I have the impression that after Vanke resumed trading, it experienced a very dangerous decline. Its H shares even fell 35% in one day, and its A shares even experienced consecutive limit falls.
All of this is one of the means for the management to fight back. After learning about Baoneng's leveraged holding costs, the management once thought of using this method to break through Baoneng's liquidation line.
Although the previous acquisitions went smoothly, Baoneng has actually been in a relatively passive situation since Vanke’s stock entered the suspension stage.
Although he was able to exit the game with a large profit in the end, the process was extremely dangerous and one could lose everything if one was not careful.
Baoneng, which withdrew with profits, did not develop smoothly in the following years. This was one of the sequelae of the failed acquisition.
The weekend news was still dominated by the topic of financial reform. At the same time, the new round of Shanghai and Shenzhen margin trading balances was announced, which was 1,193.618 billion yuan. Among them, the margin trading balance increased by 9.802 billion yuan month-on-month, and the securities lending balance was 3.143 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.83 billion yuan month-on-month.
Short selling can be regarded as a unique way of short selling in the A-share market. To use a very simple analogy, when you think a stock is at a high level, you borrow the stock from a brokerage firm and sell it.
Afterwards, if the stock falls as you expected, you can buy back the stock from the market at a certain low level and return it to the brokerage firm. This is generally known as short selling.
Of course, when the price is really high, you cannot borrow many securities for short selling. Generally speaking, the number of short selling for each stock per day is very limited.
The easiest way to determine whether a stock is eligible for margin trading is to see if the stock still has the "R" sign.
On Monday, December 21, the Shanghai Composite Index had a good start to the week, rising 1.77% to 3642.47 points, the highest level since November 27 and standing above 3600 points again.
A month is almost over, and the Shanghai Composite Index is still in a correction trend around the big negative line on November 27. When the index is gradually approaching the annual line, the trading volume of the two markets is at a low point.
This is the first year-end closing month after the stock market crash. Coupled with the sluggish performance of small and medium-sized enterprises this month, trading sentiment in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is very depressed.
Since Vanke was suspended from trading, Gu Junhao no longer had to enter the trading room. There were only two stocks left to trade, and he no longer needed to keep an eye on them himself.
As for Junshi No. 2's current positions, the overall market value has been hovering between 1.2 billion and 1.3 billion yuan, including 244 million positions that have been suspended.
The specific tradable market value is only about 1 billion yuan, less than one-sixth of the overall position. For several traders, the last few trading days of the year are likely to be just a waste of time.
However, even so, Gu Junhao will still wait until the circuit breaker after the New Year before building a position; and starting from this week, Gu Junhao's task is to select specific investment targets for building a position after the New Year.
In the liquor industry, Maotai and Wuliangye are already there, but Wuliangye’s position is less than 600 million yuan, and it will have to increase its position again after the new year.
In terms of real estate, Vanke has suspended trading, but considering the recovery of housing prices next year, it is still possible to allocate some investment in the real estate sector.
There are also blue-chip stocks surrounding the real estate industry chain. The rise in housing prices has put a certain amount of pressure on the lives of ordinary people.
But from the perspective of the capital market, the recovery of the real estate industry can drive multiple industries, and even the liquor industry can increase sales to a certain extent.
Specifically in the market, in Gu Junhao's mind, it can be called the general consumer category. After buying a house, you have to decorate it and buy household appliances.
Maybe we'll have a drink to celebrate. All of this can be described as a large consumer category, and promoting consumption and stimulating domestic demand will also be an important topic in the next few years.
After buying a house, a car is naturally indispensable, both from the perspective of practical needs and to satisfy vanity. If financial conditions permit, I believe everyone will want to buy a car.
This is another large industrial chain. In the capital market, a car is not just a car, it involves all aspects of the industrial chain.
This involves another major category of consumption, the popularization of new energy vehicles, which also drives the upstream and downstream industries of electricity.
In the past few years, electric power stocks have also been a good choice, with a wave of hype every year; similarly, electricity also belongs to the broad consumer product category.
For medium and long-term investments, the most important thing to do is to clarify your investment ideas, rather than just opening the K-line and doing it like short-term trading.
Once you have a clear investment idea, specific stock selection will be very easy. Based on the current economic environment and policies, you can choose investment categories that you prefer and have a higher success rate in the market.
As a qualified investor, whether you are engaged in short-term or medium- to long-term trading, the most important thing is to clarify your investment ideas.
There are medium and long-term ideas for the medium and long term, and short-term ideas for the short-term. Even for those who are trying to hit the limit, there are traces to be found. It is not as mindless as the leeks imagine.
Short-term trading does not mean that a stock will end its life cycle in just a few trading days; generally speaking, a super square line in the market will generally go through the processes of starting, confirming, fermenting, accelerating, diverging, counter-packing, and leading the way.
This forms a complete subject matter cycle, which is also the basis for ultra-short-term investors to operate. There are also clues as to when the stock can be traded.
Different types of ultra-short-term investors will choose a way that suits them to participate, and the so-called hot money style is thus formed.
Of course, with the emergence of a large number of quantitative trading funds in the future, the formation of crazy intraday T will also make the life cycle of ultra-short-term trading even shorter.
However, it is now 2015, and although quantitative funds have appeared in the market, they are still relatively rare and cannot influence the market structure.
Unlike the era before Gu Junhao was reborn, quantitative funds have become very common. Both medium- and long-term investors and ultra-short-term investors are very troubled by quantitative funds.
In the past, each node in a theme cycle lasted about two or three days, and investors had a better opportunity to review and intervene or run away.
But after the emergence of self-quantification, your money may be wiped out within a day. There are many cases where one goes from a big piece of meat to a big bowl of noodles within a day.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3,600 points, and due to volume constraints, it entered a sideways fluctuation trend similar to the high point in November.
On December 22, the winter solstice, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated by less than 1%, with a trading volume of only 360 billion yuan, and small and medium-sized enterprises continued to perform poorly.
On December 23, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high in the second half of this year, reaching 3,684.57 points, and then it plunged unsurprisingly.
Compared with yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index has seen a peaking trend with large volume and long upper shadow lines. The trading volume of 430 billion yuan even exceeded the volume of the increase on Monday this week.
In the following two trading days this week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 5-day line again without any surprise. On the last trading day of the week on the 25th, the combined trading volume of the three major indexes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was less than 700 billion yuan .
Judging from the trends of the three major indexes, even without the help of circuit breakers, the signal of peak adjustment is very obvious. It is obviously biased to blame the stock market crash on New Year's Day 2016 entirely on the circuit breakers.
For example, the stock price trend of Tianqi Liye, which is a proprietary trading platform, has been adjusted very obviously. Since reaching its peak on the 10th of this month, within 12 trading days, Tianqi Liye's stock price has fallen from the highest level of 176 yuan to today's closing price of 140.61 yuan.
The decline exceeded 25%, which is a very obvious correction trend. The stock price trend of Longji shares, which is one of Gu Junhao's personal holdings, is also very general.
Over the past two months, the share price of Longji Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. has been fluctuating around 13 yuan to 14 yuan. However, this is related to the fact that its first batch of restricted shares will be released on the 30th of this month.
At the end of this month, Longji shares' initial public offering shares, accounting for 0.31% of the total share capital, will be unblocked, which will have a significant impact on the stock price. Coincidentally, Longji shares were suspended again on the 23rd.
The reason for the suspension was the planning of a private placement of shares. Another heavily-held stock was suspended, and Gu Junhao was quite depressed.
The current market environment is truly chaotic, with individual stocks being suspended at will all over the market, and even the smallest issues will result in suspension for a period of time.
Before the suspension, Longji's shares closed at 14.24 yuan, and Gu Junhao's holdings were worth 427.2 million yuan, with a floating profit of more than 142 million yuan.
I don’t know whether this suspension can avoid the circuit breaker, but even if it does, it will be of no use and will only lead to the compensatory decline of Wuliangye after its resumption of trading .
Moreover, even if there is an additional issuance, the continuous decline is actually a good thing for the shareholders of the additional issuance. On the whole, the trend of Longji Shares for a period of time after the resumption of trading is not very optimistic.
Li Ze was also depressed. Although Li Ze had the same long-term investment mentality as Gu Junhao since buying the stocks, the suspension of stocks always made people unhappy.
It is worth mentioning that the stock price performance of Longji shares has been average in the past two months. Except for Li Ze, all the members of the all-in group who followed Li Ze into it have been washed out.
Longji shares, which have not yet been launched, are destined to have few retail investors who will be trapped in them. Li Ze is just an exception.
Apart from the fact that he did not invest a large amount of money himself, Tong Huashun's previous profits also gave him great confidence.
After the end of this week, the overall scale of Junshi No. 2 rose to more than 6.52 billion yuan, with a net value ratio of 4.668, once again returning to a very small range of changes. However, the changes in net value this week are no longer surprising.
Anyway, after a big surge, it will definitely enter a phase with smaller fluctuations the next week; Junshi No. 2 has performed like this for the past two months, and new investors have gradually become accustomed to it after two months of torture.
For new investors, the performance of Junshi No. 2 in the past two months is indeed somewhat disappointing. The overall increase of the fund has not reached 10% in the past two months, which is completely inconsistent with its previous performance.
In the early stages, investors still had some complaints, but in the later stages they gradually accepted it; it didn’t matter, as long as it was rising, the current market conditions were not very good anyway, and it was better to make some money than no money.
What's more, according to the tiered rules and profit-sharing ratio adopted for the management fee of Junshi No. 2, I am not at a disadvantage. The smaller the increase, the less management fee I pay. This is relatively fair.
Most investors are like this. As long as you accept a result, they will use various reasons to convince themselves, and there is no need for Gu Junhao to come forward to appease them.
For example, the famous fund managers who trapped countless investors in later generations, besides cursing, the leeks would comfort themselves that this is the so-called "long-term investment."
