Chapter 347: End of 2015
December 27, 2015, Sunday, the last weekend of this year.
Today, there were several unfavorable news from the market. The first was that the registration system has been authorized and is expected to be officially implemented in March next year.
The implementation of the registration system is undoubtedly a major negative for some highly valued growth stocks, small-cap stocks and the ChiNext.
The second is that in the last four trading days before the New Year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will usher in a huge peak of unblocking, with the market value of unblocking reaching 135.3 billion yuan, which is the second highest level of unblocking in a single week in the whole year of 2015.
There is already one less trading day in a week due to the New Year's Day. Coupled with the recent severe market volume reduction, the market has to bear a release quota of 135.3 billion in four trading days, which is really overwhelming.
The third is that Japanese newspapers publicly warned of the risks of insurance funds. Influenced by the Baowan dispute, the hottest concept in the capital market in December was the concept of raising placards.
The public statements made by the Japanese newspaper were not just directed at Baoneng, but at the entire concept of placard-raising.
This publicly published article dealt a severe blow to market sentiment before formal trading began.
It seems that after the suspension, Vanke's management has excellent public relations skills. The Japanese newspaper actually made public comments, which in a sense is also a kind of support for the management.
You should know that the last time he spoke about the stock market was when he said 4,000 points was the starting point of the bull market, but this time he actually mentioned a certain sector alone. His purpose is self-evident.
Sure enough, with the suspension of Vanke's trading, a series of public opinions unfavorable to Baoneng have surfaced, which are more devastating than the comments on the Internet.
The fourth piece of news that is not favorable to the market is that the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in November released today fell by 1.4% year-on-year. The weak macro-economy also put pressure on A-shares.
In fact, in Gu Junhao's opinion, so much news is not as important as the circuit breaker rules that will be officially implemented after New Year's Day, according to the index circuit breaker rules released by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and Zhongjin Exchange this month.
On the first trading day after New Year’s Day 2016, the circuit breaker officially came into effect, and A-shares entered the circuit breaker era.
The circuit breaker rules are based on the A-share circuit breaker target index, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, and the circuit breaker threshold is divided into two levels, 5% and 7%. After the index triggers a 5% circuit breaker, securities within the circuit breaker range will be suspended for 15 minutes.
However, if 5% is triggered during the closing phase (between 14:45 and 15:00) or 7% is triggered at any time during the day, trading will be suspended until the market closes.
The trading products involved in the circuit breaker include: stocks, funds, convertible corporate bonds, exchangeable corporate bonds, stock index futures and other related products recognized by the exchange.
It has to be said that the shock that the circuit breaker in the previous life brought to Gu Junhao was actually much greater than the stock market crash in 2015, even though the stock market crash experienced the bizarre situation of thousands of stocks hitting the limit down, thousands of stocks hitting the limit up, and thousands of stocks being suspended.
None of these are more shocking than the circuit breakers. Trading ends after 15 minutes a day, and some people don’t even have time to turn on their computers before the market is closed.
For investors who have entered the stock market since 2016, in Gu Junhao's opinion, not having experienced a circuit breaker is a great regret in one's investment career.
Stock market crashes are common, but circuit breakers are not. The feeling of being confused and seeing the market closed as soon as you turn on your computer is really interesting.
Maybe this is the only chance you get in your lifetime.
Of course, the stocks in the account were also very interesting. They hit the limit down before I could react, and there was no way to escape.
There are many stocks that have experienced circuit breakers and whose prices have been cut in half within a few trading days after the circuit breakers.
Especially some small and medium-sized start-up stocks, which have been unable to recover after the circuit breaker.
It was this circuit breaker that forced the village director to retire in disgrace, and the country entered the chaotic 641 era.
641 was definitely the village director who was least favored by hot money. During his tenure, he continuously cracked down on hot money.
Some well-known market speculators were frequently instructed, various jokes were flying around, and market investment sentiment was extremely chaotic.
On December 28, Monday, affected by the four major negative news over the weekend, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low and closed low throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index formed a big negative line with no shadows, and fell 2.59% during the day.
After facing the pressure of the annual line and failing to break through, the index fell below 3,600 points like a bare-foot negative line like a guillotine, and all the daily moving averages were broken.
Whether it is an index or an individual stock, the result of being unable to break through is ultimately to continue looking for support downwards.
Monday's sharp drop almost set the tone for the last three trading days of the year.
In the next three days, the Shanghai Composite Index adjusted around the big negative line, and barely stayed above 3,500 points under the protection of sectors such as securities, insurance and banks.
On Thursday, December 31, the last trading day, the market was in a wait-and-see mood and investors had little desire to trade. The Shanghai Composite Index opened low and remained volatile throughout the day, and began to accelerate its decline in the afternoon. In the end, all three major indexes ended the day's trading in the red.
The Shanghai Composite Index eventually closed at 3539.18 points, down 0.94%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.75% to close at 12644.89 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.36% to close at 2714.05 points.
After the completion of today's trading, the trading for the whole year of 2015 also officially came to an end.
Looking at the whole year, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 9.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 14.98%, and the ChiNext Index rose 84.41%.
2015 has come to an end. Looking back on this year, A-shares went from a bull market to a trough in the middle of the year, and then made a comeback after the National Day holiday. The whole process was magnificent and thrilling.
After four trading days this week, Junshi No. 2 ended the year with a total scale of 6.505 billion yuan, and the net value of the fund was 4.6562, a slight decrease compared with last week.
No matter what kind of year 2015 was for other investors, it was definitely a year of transformation for Gu Junhao.
Through a round of bull market, without much leverage, my personal wealth achieved a big breakthrough.
Junshi Capital has also grown from an unknown small private equity firm in the industry to a mid-to-upper-level private equity firm with a total scale of over 8 billion yuan, including funds and proprietary trading.
Investment categories have also expanded from simple A shares to US stocks.
There is no doubt that if future investors think back to 2015, Gu Junhao and the two funds under Junshi Capital will definitely be an important symbol.
Junshi No. 1's yield of more than 22 times will also become a market myth.
However, as far as his personal account is concerned, Gu Junhao suffered a considerable loss this week.
Longji Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. officially resumed trading on December 30, just one week after being suspended .
After hitting a new high of 14.98 yuan on December 30, Longji Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. began to fall rapidly.
It eventually opened high and closed low, at the same price as before the suspension, 14.24 yuan.
On the last trading day of this year, Longji shares, which had formed a large negative line with large volume after the resumption of trading, fell 4.14% today, and the stock price fell below 14 yuan, closing at 13.65 yuan.
From an annual perspective, Longji’s stock price fell 34.50% throughout the year.
However, for Gu Junhao who bought at the bottom, the cost of 9.5 yuan in his account still maintained an increase of 43.68%.
This price is already very safe. Even if there is a circuit breaker, it is estimated that it will not fall below this cost price.
As for Tianqi Liye, which is part of Junshi's proprietary trading, although its performance was not good in December, its performance throughout the year is still very impressive.
Tianqi Liye's share price rose by 248.48% throughout the year, and finally closed at 140.75 yuan.
Wuliangye, one of Junshi No. 2's holdings, rose 26.88% throughout the year, and has maintained an increase of more than 25% for two consecutive years since 2014.
Maotai has also been rising for two consecutive years, with an annual increase of 15.07%. The stock price closed at 218.19 yuan, and Wuliangye's annual price was fixed at 27.28 yuan.
Since the low point between 2011 and 2013, the liquor industry has shown signs of recovery.
The gains of most individual stocks in 2015 were illusory, and ultimately ended up with a large negative line on the annual line.
Even the securities sector, which had previously experienced a bull market, ended 2015 with an overall negative trend.
Xibu Securities, which Junshi No. 1 once held, finally closed down 12.12% this year, and the historical high price of 82.97 yuan is unlikely to be recovered in this lifetime.
Unlike liquor, this kind of stable happiness can still maintain its annual upward trend after experiencing the stock market crash. Even if Maotai bought it at the highest annual high of 290 yuan, it is much easier to get out of the predicament than securities companies.
The liquor industry has been rising for two consecutive years. I believe that the main institutions should have bought a certain amount of chips, or in 2016, it will give people a different surprise.
