The next day.
Nan Yi stayed in his study for a whole day studying information about Thailand. In the evening, he invited Ma Shimin to come to Fang’s Manor.
"Simon, what do you think of Thailand's foreign exchange policy?"
Ma Shimin thought for a moment and said, “During the 11 years from 1974 to 1985, the Thai baht, which was pegged to the US dollar, depreciated along with the US dollar, leading to rapid growth in exports. During this period, Thailand’s GDP grew by nearly 10% annually.
During this period, the proportion of manufacturing exports in total exports increased from 36% to 81%, the proportion of manufacturing in GDP increased from 22% to 29%, the proportion of agricultural exports fell from 47% to 13%, and the proportion of agricultural output in GDP fell from 21% to 11%. Industry grew and Thailand became prosperous.
However, Thailand has always been very wary of foreign financial institutions and continued to implement a relatively strict foreign exchange management system until the late 1980s.
All this changed after entering the 1990s, when Thailand's financial policy was changed to allow funds from foreign financial institutions to flow freely in and out of Thailand without the need for central bank supervision.
The reason is that the Thai government has set its sights on Hong Kong's status as a financial hub and wants to take advantage of Hong Kong's demoralized population to compete with it and replace it as the financial center of Southeast Asia, or even the entire Asia.
Once the liberal financial policy was promulgated, a large amount of overseas funds poured into Thailand, and the entire Thai financial market became prosperous. This year, the overseas funds invested in the Thai stock market may have reached nearly 3 billion US dollars, so the Thai stock index rose very quickly this year. "
Ma Shimin paused for a moment and continued, "According to the current situation, the Thai government should soon allow foreign banks to set up branches in Thailand to achieve true financial liberalization. In fact, the answer to what Thailand will do next can be found in the process of Hong Kong's transformation into a financial port."
Nan Yi picked up a macadamia nut from the table, chewed it and thought about it. After the nut was chewed clean, he said, "Simon, suppose the US dollar appreciates next year or the year after, what changes will happen to the Thai economy?"
Nan Yi's question was a bit big. Ma Shimin thought for more than 20 minutes before he spoke: "When Thailand realizes financial liberalization, a large amount of overseas funds will enter the Thai stock market. When the stock market reaches its peak and can no longer accommodate too much funds, or when the investment risk is already very high, overseas funds will transfer to the real estate industry.
As the Thai economy is still growing significantly, the real estate industry in Thailand is very likely to heat up, house prices will soar, and investing in real estate will become an investment direction that seems to have a very high rate of return.
Bank credit has expanded rapidly, and a large amount of funds has flowed not to efficient and high value-added production enterprises, but to high-risk real estate and stock markets.
These can also be confirmed from the development process of Hong Kong. The reason why Hong Kong's industrial sector declined is due to Downing Street and the fact that the real estate and stock markets absorbed most of the funds.
What will happen when the real estate market becomes hot and housing prices soar? The history of the United States, Japan, and Hong Kong has already given us the answer.
Can the Thai government do better than these three places?
I think it's impossible. Thailand's real estate industry will soon move from real prosperity to virtual prosperity, and it will become a bubble in a few years. The quality of bank loans will decline, and the non-performing asset ratio of each bank will rise rapidly.
If the US dollar appreciates at this point, and in turn drives the Thai baht to appreciate, Thailand's exports will drop sharply, turning from a trade surplus to a trade deficit.
Thailand is a member of the ASEAN Free Trade Area and is also actively joining the WTO. Perhaps in less than one or two years, Thailand will become a member of the WTO. By then, Thailand will need to fulfill the obligations assumed under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the ASEAN Free Trade Area Agreement and reduce import tariffs.
As tariffs were lowered, a large amount of foreign goods flowed into Thailand, further exacerbating the trade deficit and Thailand's economy began to decline.
When overseas funds see the investment risks in Thailand, they will withdraw funds from Thailand in large numbers, stock indexes will fall, housing prices will plummet, and the Thai economy will show signs of collapse. "
"So what do you think the Thai government will do when this situation occurs?" Nan Yi asked.
"The most direct way to attract foreign investment is to raise interest rates. I believe the Thai government will raise interest rates to a fairly high level, perhaps the highest in Asia.
When interest rates rise, the speed of foreign capital withdrawal will be slowed down to a certain extent, and the stock market and the real estate market will be able to maintain a certain amount of financial strength to prevent collapse, and the time for the bubble to be burst will be postponed.
However, the increase in interest rates is a fatal blow to Thailand's manufacturing companies. Companies in need of funds dare not borrow money in Thailand due to the high interest rates and can only go abroad to find foreign banks. This will cause Thailand's foreign debt to rise rapidly, foreign exchange reserves to fall rapidly, and the originally very stable exchange rate system to begin to shake.
Adam, I don't need to elaborate on what will happen next. Last year, Scarlett Fund's shadow fund, PY Securities, Miss Private, and Snow Mountain Trust just made a lot of profit through exchange rates."
Nan Yi nodded and said, "You know I'm not very good at financial speculation. I rarely care about Nan's financial speculation strategy and rarely express my opinions. Therefore, the exchange rate is not the focus of our discussion today.
What I want to discuss with you is loans. The Southern Bank Group has launched a low-interest, medium- and long-term lending program for high-quality companies in Thailand. Whether they borrow in Thai baht or US dollars, they must repay in US dollars when the loan matures. "
“Swallowing up Thailand’s quality companies?”
"Yes, the Thai branch of Wangmu Fruit Industry has become independent and based in Thailand. It has acquired high-quality Thai companies and reorganized into a comprehensive group with agriculture, food and beverage as its main business, covering finance, securities, tourism and real estate, namely Nanfu Group."
"Adam, if this plan is to proceed, we need to ensure that the U.S. dollar appreciates, and we need to win over a few banks as allies. Our Nan Guo Bank Group is too weak, and Thailand is likely to default."
“The appreciation of the US dollar is inevitable. The bipolar confrontation is a thing of the past. The next currency that can shake the dollar’s ​​dominance is the euro. The United States certainly needs to do something about the upcoming euro.
In addition, in the United States, the credit scores of subprime mortgage borrowers have been declining year by year, especially for floating-rate subprime mortgages. Simon and Wall Street need someone to take over the junk bonds packaged with subprime mortgages, otherwise there is a risk of rapid collapse.
It is only a matter of time before the Fed raises interest rates, and we will definitely know the time point in advance."
"OK, Adam, is this plan led by the Southland Bank Group?" Ma Shimin asked.
"Of course, Wangmu Fruit Industry can't come up with such a large amount of funds. Let's go to the Information and Strategy Committee tomorrow and discuss this idea. We need to come up with a complete and feasible plan as soon as possible."
In the following days, all information about the US economy, the Federal Reserve, subprime mortgages, the euro, the current economic situation and economic strategies of Thailand, the leadership's governance style, etc. were summarized in the Information and Policy Committee.
The strategy team deduced the direction of Thailand's economy and worked out the details of the plan - what to do when something happens; if the situation is not as expected and develops in a bad direction, how to reduce losses, etc.
After the general framework was finalized, the plan was given a code name "Buddha Bless You".
A few days later, Nan Yi appeared in the Chonghua Temple in Shencun. Chen Zongqing was in front, and Nan Yi, Chen Yuxiu and Duan Bugao were behind. They were inside the main hall, holding incense in their hands and worshiping the Buddha statue.
Zhang Dongwei was found, already a corpse, in a remote wilderness near the airport. His mouth and nose were sealed with tape, there were traces of ropes on his neck, his hands and feet were tied, and he was hunched over like an unborn baby in the womb. He had suffered a severe blow to the back of his head, but the real cause of death was suffocation.
When they were found, 2.2 million in cash and Zhang Dongwei's private car Crown JZS133 were missing.
Chen Zongqing put the incense in the incense burner, turned around, looked at Chen Yuxiu and said, "Is Zhang Dongwei's wife feeling better?"
"It's stable now and he can be discharged today."
Chen Zongqing turned to Nan Yi and said, "Nan Yi, what should we do?"
"Assist the police in tracking down the murderer with all your strength. Don't let any of them get away. I want them to be buried with Zhang Dongwei. Also, find out who is using this airport line.
Driving out from the airport late at night with 2.2 million in the car, under what circumstances and who could make Zhang Dongwei stop the car?"
Duan Bugao: "Surprise inspection."
Chen Yuxiu: "Women, Zhang Dongwei is good in everything except being a bit lustful. Even if he is not negotiating business, he will often go to entertainment venues."
"Lewd... Let's talk about it outside." After the group left the temple, Nan Yi continued, "For criminals, lustful targets are easy to prey on. If a coquettish woman wears revealing clothes and stands on the side of the road, it is easy to stop a car. Once the car stops, you can no longer decide whether to take your money or your life."
Nan Yi sighed, "2.2 million, that's too much money. If there are only a few criminals, a share of it would be enough to make them legitimate. If they stop committing crimes, it will be hard to find them. Contact the dealer in Bincheng and ask him where the money came from. I hope there are some characteristics on the money."
Chen Yuxiu said: "The police have already asked about it. The money was just the usual operating funds, which were saved up little by little. The dealer did not mark it, but he remembered that there were reactionary remarks on some of them."
"It doesn't have much effect. Although that kind of money is not much, it can be seen outside and has no strong direction." Nan Yi shook his head, "Sponsor the police some case handling funds. Well, do your best and leave the rest to fate. The one who passed away needs to be explained to him, and the widow needs to be explained even more. Does Zhang Dongwei have any children?"
"His wife is pregnant."
"Go to the company and study how to compensate them."
Back at Erdong Electronics, Duan Bugao called up Zhang Dongwei's performance appraisal. Together, they weighed Zhang Dongwei's contribution to the company and ultimately set a humanitarian compensation standard of 600,000 yuan.
It can only be called compensation, not compensation. Compensation is not an obligation. You can give it if you want to, and you don’t have to give it if you don’t want to. But compensation is different. You have to give it even if you don’t want to. Once you say it’s compensation, you’re afraid that others will follow suit.
After leaving Erdong Electronics, Nan Yi and Chen Zongqing went to a food stall in Nanshan that served drunken goose.
Open air, sitting along the street.
Chen Zongqing took out a bottle of Hai Da Bai and placed it on the table, saying, "This is a new wine. Try it."
Nan Yi picked up the wine bottle, looked at it carefully and said, "The bottle needs to be modified. It should be easy to put in a pocket and can fit in the front and back pockets of jeans."
As he spoke, he opened the lid, put it close to his nose and sniffed it, then picked up two cups from the table, mixed them and placed them on the table, poured two and a half cups, picked up the cups, took a small sip, held it in his mouth to feel the taste of the wine, and waited until his taste buds had fully understood it before he swallowed the wine.
"It smells okay, and tastes OK, but I'm not very good at drinking white wine, so my words may not count. Let Hex Winery do a taste test and choose the best solution. Also, I mentioned before that you need to think carefully about the way to mix drinks and try to find the best mixing ratio."
Nan Yi moved his stool and sat closer to Chen Zongqing, "Uncle Zongqing, Hai Dabai is used to fool young people who can't drink. Being young means being energetic, rebellious, and having the drive to change the world.
Where are the rebelliousness and aggressiveness shown?
It is manifested in denial, denial of some social phenomena, denial of the lifestyle of their parents. The sons of farmers do not want to farm like their parents, the sons of workers do not want to work in factories like their parents. They hate the smell of cigarettes on their fathers, and hate seeing their fathers sitting at the dinner table and drinking white wine slowly for a while.
However, what most young people hate is not cigarettes and alcohol, but people, their fathers, their incompetent fathers. Because they have seen more of the world and have the ability to make comparisons, they know that this classmate's father is an official, that classmate's father is a big boss, while their own father only knows how to farm and can only get half of the salary.
They were determined to live a better life than their parents, so they were admitted to government-funded technical secondary schools and universities.
When they enter schools in big cities, they will soon face a test or a blow. There are students with better grades, better looks, and better living standards than themselves. Some of their classmates have girlfriends. "Uncle Zong Qing, how old were you when you and Auntie started dating?"
"When I was seventeen, your aunt was pregnant with Wei Zong." Chen Zongqing said.
"Young people today are similar. They have the idea of ​​dating when they are 16 or 17 years old. However, society is more orderly now and school management is stricter. Most young people can only feel itchy but dare not put it into action.
When they go to technical secondary school or university and are away from their parents, some people release their previously suppressed emotions. They are all knowledgeable and cultured young people, and they know very well what they can and cannot do.
Their negative emotions need to be expressed, their ambition to change the world needs to be expressed, their love needs to blossom, and their loss needs to be comforted.
All of this requires companions. Men, no matter what common ground brings them together, if they want to have a close relationship and become brothers, they will inevitably eat, drink and smoke together.
What we need to do is to make Hai Da Bai a wine that only belongs to young people. In order to cater to their rebellious psychology, the traditional promotion method is not effective and needs to be changed. Therefore, at the beginning, we don’t want to advertise on TV, but use a more special way that young people can accept. "
Nan Yi stopped talking here and turned the conversation to something else. "Uncle Zong Qing, it's not a good idea to let Wei Zong manage Hex Winery all the time. We need to find a person in charge, preferably someone younger. Are there any young people in the village who can take on the responsibility?"
Chen Zongqing heard this and said in embarrassment: "All the young people in the village who can move have already started to move, and the rest are still studying in school."
"Since there are none in the village, let's look for them outside. Uncle Zong Qing, we can't just use people from the village. There are few people in the village. Even if everyone is talented, there are only a few of them. Nanchen Village is so big now that there are not enough people.
Also, if only people from the village are employed, the young people in the village will become lazy. They will think that there are not enough people, and there will be a good position waiting for them regardless of whether they are good or bad.
There is a saying called the catfish effect, which means that if you put a catfish in a fish pond, the catfish will eat small fish. In order to avoid being eaten, the small fish can only swim continuously and faster than other fish of the same kind. Only in this way, it will not be eaten by the catfish.
Similarly, in the industries of Nanchen Village, we want to let some people with other surnames take up senior management positions and tell the young people in the village that they can wait to become senior executives just because they have the surname Chen or are from Nanchen Village. "
Nan Yi patted the table and said, "No, there are only a few positions, and only those with ability can sit there. If you don't run a business, the village can arrange a job for you, but it's definitely not a management position. You can go to the workshop of Heche Group to install remote control cars, go to Erdong Electronics to screw, go to Nanchen Winery to be a packer, go to Laos to mine, these are all possible, but they are only hard and tiring positions. Good positions are not obtained by points, but by fighting for them."
"I understand what you said. Wei Zong and his generation started working very early and didn't receive much education. For our generation, let alone us, many of us only learned a few words in literacy classes. There are only a few of us who have a promising future. I have no objection to hiring outsiders.
However, the next generation in the village also needs to be taught well, and more promising people should be raised. Nan Yi, you should also help with the school. Nanchen Primary School is far behind Wenchangwei Primary School . Wenchangwei has produced many famous people, and I am jealous. "
Chen Zongqing was very emotional!
"When I'm done with this, I'll go live in the village for a while."
Chen Zongqing heard this and said excitedly: "Okay."
"Uncle Zong Qing, eat goose, eat goose. You can tell from the look of this goose that I raised it. Wow, it's so fat." Nan Yi picked up the chopsticks and pointed at the iron pot on the table.
Chen Zongqing picked up a piece of goose meat with chopsticks and said as he ate, "I ate the egg you sent me last time. It tastes almost the same as an egg, except it's a little bigger."
"It doesn't make any difference to me, but crocodile eggs are more nutritious than chicken eggs. Uncle Zong Qing, you can steam one every other day and treat it as a tonic. You can also try pickling them. I like salted crocodile eggs."
"Like pickled duck eggs?"
"Same, just marinate for a few more days."
…
After eating the drunken goose, Nan Yi watched Chen Zongqing go to Guangzhou. Missing his wife, Chen Zongqing decided to stay in Guangzhou for a few days.
At the end of March, Fang's Distilled Water and Xiarun Venture held a signing ceremony. Xiarun Venture invested HK$151.25 million to buy 55% of Fang's Distilled Water's shares from Fang's Group. In addition, according to the shareholding ratio, Xiarun Venture injected HK$55 million into Fang's Distilled Water, and Fang's Group followed with HK$45 million.
The Fang Group holds a 45% stake, but has 55% of the say, that is, in the board of directors, one share of the Fang Group is counted as one or more shares to exercise power, but dividends are distributed according to the proportion of shares.
Immediately afterwards, Xia Run Venture sent a person to work at Fang’s Distilled Water. This person was Zhao Yu, who would serve as the vice president of Fang’s Distilled Water.
On Zhao Yu’s first day at Fang’s Distilled Water, Nan Yi invited her to dinner.
After picking up Zhao Yu downstairs at Fang Group, as soon as they got in the car, Nan Yi said to Zhao Yu: "Do you want me to give you a hug?"
"Nan Yi, don't try to take advantage of me." Zhao Yu said to Nan Yi vigilantly.
"I don't want to take advantage of you. I just want to give you some comfort since you've been exiled."
"Who told you I was exiled?"
"You've come here to be the vice president, isn't that considered exile?" Nan Yi said with a smile.
"Stop talking nonsense. I am only the vice president of Fang's Distilled Water. My main job is still at the head office."
"Then congratulations, you are going to be valued. It looks like you will be promoted to work in the group in a few years." Nan Yi said sincerely.
If Zhao Yu's position as vice president is not a part-time job, then her future is worrying. Since it is a part-time job, there are many possibilities. For example, Xia Run Venture has no one more suitable than Zhao Yu to take the position, so they can only give Zhao Yu more responsibilities, and when there is a suitable person to take over, she will go back.
Adding burdens and adding more work are completely different in nature. If the leaders above had no confidence in Zhao Yu, such a burden would not have been placed on her. The nature of Xia Run's enterprise is very special and cannot be viewed simply as an enterprise. No matter how capable Zhao Yu is, without anyone above her, it is almost impossible for her to climb to her current position by herself.
"There's nothing to congratulate. Even if I get promoted to the group, I can't be with you." Zhao Yu looked directly into Nan Yi's eyes and said, "Nan Yi, am I right?"
"Don't compare yourself to me. We are of different natures. If you want to compare yourself to me, go ahead and compare yourself to my Liu Zhen. She has been wasting years in her current position."
"Liu Zhen, do we need to worry about her future? She has studied abroad, has a good teacher, and is surrounded by senior colleagues in the financial system. In a few years, she will be a young economist and will be able to reach for the moon." Zhao Yu said meaningfully.
Nan Yi muttered to himself: "Why didn't I see that classmate Zhao was so capable before? Was she so infatuated with love that she became cute and stupid, or was her wisdom suppressed by her fat and not shown?"
"Tsk, why didn't I realize my wife is so bad? She's not good at housework, the food she cooks is terrible, and she has a bad temper. She has flaws everywhere. If it weren't for the child, I would have divorced her long ago."
"Okay, stop pretending. You and Liu Zhen are both celebrities in school. Everyone knows that you were middle school classmates. You went to the countryside together and both passed the exam and came back. You have known each other for twenty years, right?" Zhao Yu said without hesitation.
"Not that long, maybe 17 or 18 years. My child was already old enough to help with cooking five or six years ago. Why haven't you found one yet?"
"All men are bad. I'm fine on my own."
"How cruel! All the men died when you hit them with this blow." Nan Yi pursed his lips. Seeing that he couldn't get any information, he stopped dwelling on the current topic.
After a while, they arrived at the restaurant and sat in the private room, where they started talking about Fang's distilled water.
"It won't take long to build a factory, and then we will face the problem of promoting Happy Water in the mainland. What are your suggestions on how to market Happy Water?"
Nan Yi smiled and said, "What is the most popular advertising slogan on TV now?"
Zhao Yu: "Excellent at the provincial level, excellent at the ministry level, and excellent at the national level."
"You see, it's boring to just keep wandering around in China. Happy Water needs to go global. I'll give you a few tips. When you go back, go figure out how to do it with Sheng Ziqian. Listen." Nan Yi took a sip of water, moistened his throat, and imitated the advertising voice and said, "Happy Water won the gold medal at the New York Expo. It is the only mineral water brand to win the gold medal. Second, Happy Water is a brand recommended by the London Chinese Medicine Hospital. Third, Happy Water is a mineral water brand recommended by the International Drinking Water Research Group."
“Will it be too fake?”
"Why do you say it's fake?"
"Is there a New York Expo? Is there a London Chinese Medicine Hospital? Is there an International Drinking Water Research Group?"
Nan Yi nodded seriously, "All of them. I will send you the registration documents tomorrow. It was registered in a small country in Africa and cost me several thousand dollars. I have a lot of registration documents for the expo. A customer introduced it to me. It's a gold medal at a certain expo, with a certificate and a trophy, worth 100,000 yuan. No cheating.
There are even more research groups and epidemic prevention groups. Registration documents are sold for RMB 300,000 each. There are international dental prevention groups, international oral groups, and international liver prevention groups. Whatever you need, there is available.
There is also a designated brand for a certain country's state banquet. It depends on which country. If it is a European or American country, it will be expensive and difficult to operate, and it will cost at least 70 or 80 million. If it is a small country in Africa or South America, the price will be cheaper.
If it's just one country, then it's cheap and it's also prestigious. For example, for the Principality of Sealand, I can invite the president to come and shoot an ad. Imagine the president giving a thumbs up and saying in a foreign accent in Chinese: "Happy water is just good, my whole family drinks it." Behind him, the heads of the navy, army, and air force are grinning. How about that? Isn't it prestigious?"
"Student Nan Yi, I am seriously discussing work with you. Please don't joke with me. What you said can only fool you temporarily. In the short term, the situation of Happiness Water can be improved, but in the long run, it will be very detrimental to the brand image."
Nan Yi gave Zhao Yu a thumbs up. "Student Zhao, you are amazing. You have seen the essence through the phenomenon and grasped the core of the problem. You are right. What I said can only fool people for a while. The most important thing is that these are not too difficult to think of. If I can think of them, others will also think of them. Once they become rampant, they will immediately become a laughing stock.
If a brand wants to last, it can only adopt upright strategies. Weird and crooked tactics will not work. In the end, they will become black history. If you want to talk about crooked tactics, I have a lot of them, but when it comes to upright strategies, the most effective method I can think of is to find a celebrity endorsement. "
"Celebrity endorsement? Who?"
Nan Yi waved his hand and said, "Don't ask me about this. I don't work for Fang's Distilled Water, or even Fang's Group. This is not my job."
"Chairman Fang is your grandmother, right?" Zhao Yu asked.
"Mr. Zhao, that's enough. I do everything. What do you do as the vice president?"
"You can't think of the right person, can you?"
"Don't try to provoke me. I won't fall for it. Come on, you've been in Hong Kong for so many years. You should have heard about the reputation of each star. Find someone who is popular and has a positive image. It doesn't matter if it's a little expensive, as long as it's worth it."
"Forget it, I'll discuss it with President Sheng myself." Nan Yi refused to say anything, so Zhao Yu gave up the idea of ​​asking and turned to ask about Nan Yi's tricks. "Tell me a few tricks you can think of. Next time a friend asks me how to advertise, I'll tell them your tricks."
"Okay, if you want to hear it, I'll explain it to you. But let me make it clear first, we are just joking. But if my tricks are revealed to others, it may involve tens of millions of dollars in business. Be cautious when telling others."
"I know the number. Tell me."