Chapter 456: Dawn Has Appeared
After a holiday, everything seemed to have changed.
But in fact, nothing has changed. The rice debt problem has been around for a long time and the crisis has always existed.
Ordinary investors do not know and cannot explore the reason why a specific time node was triggered, and can only be swept forward by the torrent.
Under the general environment, the impact of investing in stocks and not investing in stocks is actually not that different. If you do not invest in stocks, the funds in your hands may disappear somewhere else.
Of course, those who participated in it will definitely suffer the biggest losses. Today, Junshi Price Investment experienced a severe pullback. After finally rising to the 2.4 net value mark in September, Junshi Price Investment retreated 2.51% within one day and returned to 2.3743.
Just like buying stocks, the group of people who rushed in when the market rose to 2,800 points at the end of September were trapped again.
This feeling is extremely desperate. The first group of people who entered have already made money and might have run away in time if the situation was not right, but I chose to take over.
The sharp drop on October 8 seriously affected the sentiment of subsequent transactions, and the problem of rice debt has also begun to be magnified due to today's sharp drop.
Compared with the end of last month, the number of institutions that are bearish has increased.
On the evening of October 10, the stock market on the other side of the Pacific opened lower and panic selling occurred near the end of the trading day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 800 points in one day. The plunge in the technology and chip sectors dragged down the Nasdaq, which plunged more than 4%.
Nvidia plunged 7.48%, with both trading volume and decline hitting a recent high. The 10-year US bond yield is usually considered the "risk-free rate of return."
This investment is often seen as an anchor for global asset pricing, and the continued rise in yields has forced institutions and investors to begin re-evaluating risky assets such as stocks.
The bloodbath that rice stocks suffered overnight and a series of confusing operations by the president have also boosted the morale of those in China who have been bearish on rice stocks.
These experts believe that the bull market in US stocks has ended, but in fact domestic investors do not care about this. They are only worried about the performance of A shares after the opening tomorrow.
According to statistics, on days when the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls by more than 3%, the probability of A-shares falling the next day is as high as 75%, and the probability of a decline of more than 3% is 50%, and the probability of a decline in the next five trading days is also 50%.
Our A-share market has indeed always had its own independent trend, but it is only independent in its upward trend. Whenever the international stock market falls sharply, it is never absent.
The evening of October 10 was painful for night owl stock investors. Why should they pay attention to the night market when they can sleep soundly without watching it?
After all, after the first trading day, A shares resisted for two trading days at the 20-day line and 2,700 points, and closed with two small positive lines.
On October 11, after a few years, A-shares once again experienced Black Thursday.
From the morning call auction, funds began to flee frantically, and the index opened with a gap of more than 80 points, which seriously hit market confidence.
The Shanghai Composite Index plummeted 143.38 points throughout the day, directly falling from 2700 points to 2583.46 points. Throughout the day's trading, the market did not resist at all.
The daily decline was 5.22%. The last time it was larger than this was during the circuit breaker period on New Year's Day in 2016.
The Shenzhen Component Index fell 6.07% and the ChiNext Index fell 6.3% on the day. The ChiNext Index has fallen to 1261.88 points. No one is calculating the so-called new low anymore.
Today's decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was accompanied by volume, and the trading volume of the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 170 billion yuan, which shows how much panic there is in the market today.
China News Service's stock price hit the daily limit today, and has fallen to 15.17 yuan. Ningwang's stock price even fell below the 60 yuan mark during trading today, closing at 60.45 yuan at the end of trading, with a daily decline of 6.86%.
In the four trading days of the week, Ning Wang's decline exceeded 20%. During the four days, Ning Wang, one of Junshi Price Investment and Junshi No. 2's holdings, always followed the principle of selling first and buying later.
However, when the trading volume is not high, the losses are still not small, especially for China News Service.
After four days of trading and highly forced operations, the trading team was under tremendous pressure. With a capital amount of over 10 billion yuan and under extreme market conditions and without the ability to short sell, the workload was very heavy if they wanted to control the losses.
After the market closed at three o'clock, Gu Junhao smiled as he looked at the trader slumped in his chair.
"Today's trading volume has been released, and panic selling has already emerged, especially in the ChiNext, which has reached 1,200 points. Next, we will start to increase our positions, starting with ChiNext stocks."
"Ah, so we don't need to do T trading on GEM holdings tomorrow?" Everyone was excited when they heard this.
I have to do T every day these days. With so many positions, the trading volume is really huge. Although there is trading software to assist, the pressure of watching the market is much greater than before.
"Well, there is no need to do T. First increase the holdings in the GEM and then wait for the main board."
In Gu Junhao's opinion, today's market conditions have reached an extreme. The trading volume of the Shanghai Composite Index of 170 billion and the trading volume of more than 400 billion in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have both created new highs in the past few months.
With such a high trading volume and at such a low level, it is obvious that panic selling has begun.
For large funds, it is already possible to increase positions at a certain position. At present, most of the high-quality performance stocks in the market have actually deviated from the normal valuation and are at a very low level.
Under extreme market conditions, the bottoming out of an index or individual stock is usually accompanied by a rebound with reduced volume and a pit digging with increased volume.
With today's large-volume decline, it is undeniable that the market will continue to fall, which will eventually push panic to its maximum. After a large-volume decline, when the volume gradually shrinks to around the previous average level, that will be about the same.
Compared with others, Gu Junhao has the advantage of foresight. When the amount of capital is huge, he can start buying at the bottom without hesitation.
By withstanding the panic for a few trading days, Junshi Group will be able to reap a large number of chips in advance, seize the first-mover advantage, and maximize its profits in the future rebound and bottoming out process.
This is Gu Junhao’s biggest advantage under such extreme market conditions.
On Black Thursday, the market fell nearly 300 points in four trading days. The downward process was extremely brutal. Institutions, retail investors, and hot money all suffered heavy losses in the series of declines.
The retail investors who have been numb from falling have no energy to curse anymore. Over the past few days, social media, stock bars and stock groups have all been very quiet.
Most of the time, the sentiment of retail investors is also an important reference indicator for the A-share market. When most people are still buying at the bottom, then it is not the real bottom.
The real bottom is often accompanied by a large number of retail investors' extreme despair about the market, who sell at a loss and exit, and even some groups of retail investors directly delist.
It's cruel, but realistic, and this is where the financial market gets bloody.
After the market closed, a large number of investors were waiting for policies after the stock market crash. The China Securities Regulatory Commission also timely announced that there would be no IPOs in the market this week, and there were plans to introduce rules for the Shanghai-London Stock Connect related businesses.
On Friday, October 12, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded with reduced volume.
The Shanghai Composite Index ended this week's trading at 2606.91 points; within a week, the index fell as much as 8.22%.
The ChiNext Index rose 0.52% on the day to close at 1268.41 points, with a weekly decline of as much as 11.26%.
Ningwang, the star stock of the ChiNext and a major holding of Junshi Group, rebounded today with a small volume and rose by 3.99%, with the share price closing at 62.86 yuan.
Judging from the K-line, today's Ning Wang's medium-sized positive line with shrinking volume has completely recovered the actual decline position of yesterday's negative line. The trend of one negative and one positive has begun to form a real bottom pattern.
It is very normal for individual stocks that are of interest to funds to bottom out earlier than the index.
Starting today, Junshi Group has been making all its efforts as the main force. Junshi Price Investment's overall position has increased by 5% today, and the total position has increased to 75%.
After a week of big drops, although Junshi Price Investment was fully committed to T, no matter how it was operated, the losses were still very heavy.
If it weren't for today's recovery, the decline in one week would have exceeded the total increase in the last month.
After a week, Junshi Price Investment had a retracement rate of 4.38%, and its net value fell from 2.4339 at the close of last month to 2.3316 today.
Due to the decline and redemptions by some retail investors, the overall size of the fund has shrunk significantly this week, from around 20.8 billion yuan to around 19.5 billion yuan this week.
In the fund comment section, there were many investors who mocked and cursed Gu Junhao for his failure to bottom-fish this time, and they vented their emotions about the decline on Gu Junhao.
This is how it is for public figures. When you do something in a high-profile manner, you have to bear the backlash of the opposite consequences. When Junshi opened for subscription in mid-September, Gu Junhao thought of this consequence.
However, Gu Junhao still did it. If he waited until the index fell to 2,400 points before releasing it, it would be too late!
As the first institution to publicly express bullishness, it will be able to attract more buying funds during the rebound in late September.
If the stock price drops to 2400 points, no one will dare to buy it! This is a measure, and there is nothing wrong with it.
Just after today's closing, due to the weekend, Junshi Price Investment also announced its third-quarter holdings in advance. The changes compared to the second quarter are not big, but still very obvious.
Gold stocks were removed from the portfolio and the shareholding ratio of technology stocks also declined. Due to the increase in fund size and locked positions, the shareholding ratio of China News Service fell below 10%.
The shareholding ratio of pharmaceutical stocks has increased slightly; while Ningwang is still the number one holding stock of Junshi Value Investment, and the shareholding ratio remains at 10%.
"Ning Wang's stock price has dropped to 60, but he is still fully invested? Could it be that he is helping someone else to buy it?"
"The normal valuation price given by institutions is around 60 yuan, and Junshi Capital's own valuation is also this price. Is it really appropriate to go all in at this price? Even if there is a premium, it won't be much, right?"
"This stock depends mainly on whether its performance can explode. Now the domestic new energy vehicle market is also booming. If the performance explodes, the valuation will be higher, but at most it will be around 90 yuan before, and will not exceed 100 yuan. However, this price is about the same for big funds, and it is also a big profit."
"Ning Wang's holdings in Junshi Price Investment Fund alone are almost 2 billion. I'm sure Junshi No. 2 and its proprietary trading account have also bought it. How much did they buy? It's amazing."
"There's no point in talking about this. You guys are just trustees. What matters is . Damn, I didn't reduce my position at the end of last month and I lost money."
"To be honest, no one is happy when the stock market drops, but I can accept that the stock market only dropped 4.38% this week. My stock dropped more than 20% in a week, which made me so angry."
"I'm not happy about a 0.38% drop! Who made him publicly bullish before? I got screwed by him, stupid fund manager."
"That's right. All of us who went all-in last month were deceived by him. Now that he has become a capitalist, he has started to deceive his fans."
"He is even more hateful than Li Daxiao. At least no one believes in Li Daxiao, but he has more people who believe in him."
Faced with overwhelming negative comments, Gu Junhao remained unmoved.
On Saturday morning, Gu Junhao got up early and took a photo of the rising sun standing in the sun of his home, which he then shared online to all of his major social media platforms.
And the caption reads: "The dawn has come!"
