Chapter 455: Making Money is Not Easy
Little Gu is almost one and a half years old. He can babble and say a few words, but he can't walk very well yet because he lacks stability. He crawls on the ground but it's quite fun.
After having a child, Gu Junhao and his wife's range of activities was greatly restricted, and they had to take this little one with them wherever they went.
Although there is a nanny taking care of the child and Qin Ruolan also comes to help take care of the child, there are many times when parents still want their child to be within their sight.
The little thing grew up little by little. While experiencing the joy of being a father, Gu Junhao also felt how difficult it is to raise a child. An illness or a fever can make people worried.
The children are still too young for long-distance travel, especially during the National Day Golden Week when so many people are traveling that the family just wandered around nearby.
Normally, the family stays at home more often. During the National Day, it is the hottest season in Ningbo, and it is also the season when the weather turns from hot to cool in the year.
After the National Day, the weather in Ningbo began to slowly enter autumn and started to become cooler.
It is quite comfortable to stay at home, play with children and eat melons without going out. In 2018, there were big melons in the domestic entertainment industry. During the National Day, a well-known female star became a hot topic, which officially sounded the alarm for the star tax investigation.
This melon was so big that it almost dominated the hot search topics during the entire National Day holiday. It affected the entire body, and it was from this time that the A-share media sector was greatly affected.
Of course, most ordinary investors regard the tax investigation storm that started this year as just a routine matter, not knowing that a bigger bomb will occur next year.
Major changes in the industry also took place quietly during the holiday period. E-commerce export companies have ushered in a wave of tax benefits since October 1, involving value-added tax, consumption tax exemption and other aspects.
As for new energy vehicles, there have been many good news this year. Since the Tesla Gigafactory project settled in Shanghai, the "green license plate" has officially been implemented nationwide on October 11 after the National Day this year.
While you are still questioning new energy vehicles, you may not know that a major change in the industry is quietly taking place.
With the great changes in the automotive industry, the layout of a series of automotive parts companies established by Gu Junhao since 2015 has gradually begun to show results.
To this day, outsiders may still not understand it, but insiders have gradually begun to pay attention to Gu Junhao’s layout made a few years ago.
Among a series of listed or unlisted companies in which Gu Junhao has invested, including Xushen and Tuopu, many have become members of the Tesla or domestic new energy vehicle brand industry chain.
Reborn at the end of 2013, Gu Junhao was just an ordinary young man with tens of thousands of yuan. He did not have the ability to participate in the capital feast of the Internet and missed the craziest period of the Internet.
In the following years, as Junshi Capital grew larger and invested more in the primary market, Internet companies such as Maicai contacted Gu Junhao seeking investment.
All of these were rejected by Gu Junhao. Gu Junhao didn't want to get involved in this money-burning market or projects that compete with the people for profits.
However, in the field of new energy vehicles, Gu Junhao successfully boarded this high-speed train by investing in a number of auto parts companies.
These companies may not necessarily bring much profit to Junshi Capital and Gu Junhao, and Gu Junhao does not have actual control over the companies, but they can enable them to have a place in the new energy track.
Xushen Group, Junshi Capital currently still holds 1.49% of the shares. These shares have actually been unblocked, but Gu Junhao has no plans to sell them.
On the contrary, after the National Day holiday, Junshi Capital will continue to increase its holdings in the company mainly through its proprietary accounts, increasing its shareholding to 4.99%.
This is a strategic investment of Junshi Capital. Unless there are special circumstances, Gu Junhao will not choose to sell it easily. The same is true for Top Group's private placement.
On October 7, the central bank announced a 1 percentage point reduction in the deposit reserve ratio for large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks and foreign banks, effective from October 15.
This time's reserve requirement cut is expected to provide 750 billion of liquidity to the market. This is also the fourth reserve requirement cut this year. The central bank has been very active this year.
But unfortunately, it seems that there is not much effect either in the real economy or in the stock market.
During the National Day holiday, for the financial market, the news was mostly positive, whether in terms of industry changes or financial means.
The rebound at the end of September and the good news during the National Day holiday made investors who are concerned about the stock market a little impatient. The dream rebound of 3,000 points seems to be just around the corner.
However, there is also bad news. Some securities firms have suspended stock pledge financing business.
A medium-sized securities firm in Shenzhen has even established new internal standards for stock pledge financing business: the overall stock pledge ratio of listed companies shall not exceed 50%, companies with negative profits in the first and second quarters of this year cannot pledge stocks, and industries with excessively high debt, such as the real estate industry, are not allowed to pledge stocks.
Some insurance companies do not accept pledges of their stocks, and some large listed securities firms have even explicitly stated that the pledge rate must not exceed 30%.
Following the precedent of fake accounting, the stock market continues to fall, and some actual controllers of listed companies, even when facing margin calls on large amounts of pledged stocks, still refuse to add additional margin in order to achieve the purpose of reducing holdings in a disguised manner.
The consequences of all this are borne by securities companies and the secondary market. After a series of bankruptcies, the market has also given a specific response. In the future, it will not be so easy to raise funds through stock pledge.
Of course, this has a lot to do with regulatory requirements. The market conditions are bleak, the margin trading business is not very prosperous, and the stock pledge business has become the focus and growth point of securities companies' credit business.
If it were not for the introduction of strict new pledge regulations by regulators and the influence of comprehensive factors such as deleveraging, securities firms would not have reduced their stock pledge business.
Anyway, if your position really goes bankrupt, you can just liquidate it in the secondary market and get every bit of interest you deserve.
Another relatively large negative factor that is easily overlooked by ordinary investors is that during the National Day holiday when the A-share market was closed, the yield on rice bonds was constantly setting new highs.
The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds hit a four-year high of 3.4302%, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 3.25%, setting a new high in nearly seven years.
What does rising US bond yields usually mean?
First of all, we need to know a probability. In essence, the rice debt is actually an IOU, but the person who issued the IOU has a relatively high credibility. In addition, it is a world's universal currency, so investors don't have to worry about him not being able to pay back the money.
There are many factors that contribute to the rise in US bond yields, which are not summarized here one by one. Investors only need to know one very simple principle.
That is, capital tends to seek profit and avoid harm. When the yield of a financial product increases, its attractiveness naturally increases.
At this time, some investors will naturally sell other types of financial products, such as stocks, etc., and buy bonds.
Just like the domestic stock market and housing market, when the stock market soars, some people will sell their houses to invest in stocks, and when stocks are not attractive enough, some investors will naturally abandon stocks and choose to invest in real estate.
In short, this is bad news that is easily overlooked by investors but has a profound impact on the stock market, not only for A-shares, but also for global stock markets including US stocks.
As bond yields continue to rise, it is bound to cause turbulence in global stock markets. This is actually closely related to the sharp drop in A-shares in October that Gu Junhao remembers.
During the long holiday, Junshi Capital actually had some employees who stayed behind to take leave. Through the public opinion feedback from the remaining employees, Gu Junhao saw that most investors were optimistic about the transactions after the holiday in October.
Self-media and some big Vs also deliberately concealed these external unfavorable factors, and even the securities companies shrank their pledge business, and most investors were unaware of it.
During every long holiday, a lot of news will actually break out, which is very disadvantageous to ordinary investors, both in terms of the channels for obtaining news sources and the state of being immersed in long-term joy.
In his previous life, although Gu Junhao had some assets in 2018, he was not much different from other retail investors. If he could see the news in time, Gu Junhao would not have started to buy at the bottom in early October.
No matter what, you have to wait until a big drop before you buy at the bottom. This way you can use your limited funds to get more chips, instead of having only tens of thousands of dollars left at the end of the year to celebrate the New Year.
At this time, Gu Junhao looked at the information collected by the professional team and couldn't help but sigh at the difficulties of ordinary retail investors.
It’s really hard to make money!
…
On Monday, October 8, 2018, A-shares resumed trading after a long holiday.
While ordinary investors were still immersed in the good wishes of a rebound, the opening of A-shares on the first trading day of October gave them a big blow.
At 9:25, the call auction ended, and the three major indexes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all opened lower. The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 2768.21 points, down 1.92%!
Compared with the closing level of 2821.35 points on the last trading day of September, the Shanghai Composite Index today jumped down by 53.14 points, breaking the 2800 point level in the call auction!
The ChiNext Index gapped to the lower middle level and opened at 1380.65 points, down 2.22%, or 30.69 points!
On the market, all sectors were in the red and individual stocks gapped down one after another. Ningwang, which hit a new high of 75.09 yuan since the rebound on the last trading day of last month, opened lower at 71.88 yuan today, and its share price fell by 1.56%.
Even the king , Maotai Liquor, gapped downward today!
"What the hell! What's going on? There were so many positive news over the weekend, and the rebound trend last month was also very good. Why did they suddenly all gap down?"
"Oh my god, has something happened that we don't know about? Has friction arisen again? The fall shouldn't have been so severe."
"Fuck, I bought a lot of stocks before the holiday in hopes of a rebound after the holiday, and this is it?"
"If there is a gap down from a high position, don't think about it, just clear the position with one click. The market is cold and it will not recover for half a month."
At this time, in the trading room of Junshi Value Investment, Gu Junhao was directing the fund team traders to operate: "Sell first, sell as much as you can, and then add to the positions at the end of the trading day. Don't add positions today, just keep the positions at the lowest level, and make sure to reduce losses."
It's time to test the trader's hand speed. Junshi No. 2 is also busy with the same operations as here. Compared with the minimum standard requirements for positions here, Junshi No. 2 seems to be much more unrestrained.
However, the situation of Xu Jianqing's trading team is quite different. They do not need to worry too much about the loss of fund net value with their own funds. Starting today, the main focus of their own funds in the proprietary trading is to buy, buy and buy.
Starting today, we will start building positions for stocks including Longji Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Sunshine Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Tongwei Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Tianqi Liye Technology Co., Ltd., and Xushen Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. around the clock.
Of course, the trading principle given by Gu Junhao is to buy according to the proportion of daily trading volume. There is no need to use large orders to maintain the stock price. This does not fall into the category of bottom fishing.
Three major sectors and two trading models, this is also a last resort. If the 70 to 80 billion funds are all self-owned funds, Gu Junhao naturally would not care about the intraday fluctuations.
However, in the spirit of being responsible to investors, Junshi No. 2 and Junshi Value Investment can only choose this intraday reverse T operation mode to reduce losses.
As for why Junshi No. 2 is not shorted, there is really no need and it is not possible; not to mention that the gap from the real bottom is not large, the trading volume at the bottom alone is not enough to make Junshi No. 2 shorted.
Although today's policy strategy is generally to sell first and buy later, this is only for stocks with large trading volume such as Ning Wang. For stocks with little trading volume such as Tong Huashun, buying is still the main approach.
With a daily trading volume of tens of millions of yuan, for Junshi Group, which has a large amount of cash flow, there is really no need to do this kind of T, just increase the position.
At 9:30, trading officially begins and the hunting time begins. Under normal circumstances, the index tends to jump down from a high level. For most stocks, there is no problem in choosing to sell at the opening.
When systemic risks appear in the market, the first thing investors should think about is not to take advantage of the situation, but to avoid risks in a timely manner.
Although the Shanghai Composite Index at 2,800 points is not really high, it is still on the high side compared to the A-shares which have rebounded for nearly half a month.
If we take the expected level of around 2,400 points, the distance is nearly 400 points, and the gap is still very obvious.
After a full day of trading, the three major indexes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed no signs of rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.72% during the day, closing at 2716.51 points, a drop of more than 100 points in one day.
The ChiNext Index fell 4.09% during the day and closed at 1353.67 points. More than 90% of stocks in the two markets closed in the red, and the market was extremely bleak.
Junshi increased its investment in Ningwang and China News Service, two stocks that it currently holds heavily. Both stocks suffered sharp declines. Ningwang closed down 6.23% for the day, closing at 68.45 yuan.
The share price of Sino-Singapore Communications plummeted by 8.14%, closing at 16.81 yuan. Just for the Sino-Singapore Communications stock, Junshi Group's losses on the market today evaporated more than 550 million yuan!
However, starting today, Junshi Value Investment has also begun to officially build a position in Oriental Shares, another future monster stock in the 5G concept sector. Today, Oriental Shares fell 4.83% and the share price closed at 4.53 yuan, with daily trading volume of only 22.59 million yuan.
Judging from the market trend in October, Oriental shares will continue to fall for some time in the future. However, with this kind of trading volume, the buying process is destined to take a long time.
In Gu Junhao's expectation, it would be best if Oriental Holdings could buy 60 million shares, but this was destined to be a very difficult number, and it would be good enough to be able to buy half of it.
Calculated at a cost of 5 yuan, the holding cost is between 150 million yuan and 300 million yuan. It is impossible to make the most of this ten-fold monster stock. It would be a great success to recover the losses of China News Service today.
After the market closed at 3 p.m., for a long period of time, investors were in a vacuum in the major stock comment sections and on social media.
There was no other reason. He was just numb and dazed from the fall. For a moment, he didn't know how to react.
The hot topic of the A-share market's sharp drop on the first trading day after the National Day holiday has already topped the hot search list. The performance on the first trading day after the holiday was completely beyond the market's expectations.
"Today's market is really a blow, completely destroying the popularity maintained in September."
Although it was within Gu Junhao's expectations, the market performance still made him feel very regretful. The popularity that he had worked so hard to maintain was gone just like that.
After such a big drop today, coupled with the subsequent sell-off, it will not be as simple as pulling a few positive lines to restore market sentiment.
