Chapter 352: Building a warehouse under internal and external troubles
In a week when an investor lost more than 90% of his funds and wiped out all his funds, Junshi No. 2's drawdown was less than 1%, making its peers and ordinary investors envious.
In an upward market, market risks are not obvious. What is most worrying is the retracement after the tide recedes. Floating profits are always floating profits, and a large retracement is of no use.
Only funds like Junshi No. 2 that maintain the smallest drawdown are what investors care about the most. At this point, investors who have newly subscribed to Junshi No. 2 can finally breathe a sigh of relief.
This time the stock market crash came without any warning, and no one was spared, whether it was retail investors, private equity institutions or large public funds.
Under such market conditions, Junshi No. 2 can maintain its usual style, keep the fund stable, and remain as awesome as ever.
"Fuck, how did Mr. Gu do it? He lost less than 1% this week. That's amazing."
"I used to think that Mr. Gu was just lying around and collecting management fees at a scale of 6 billion, just like the gossip said. Now it seems that's just nonsense."
"Awesome! I thought I would lose a lot this week, but I didn't expect the total loss to be less than 60 million yuan. That's amazing."
"I feel relieved now. I used to think that Mr. Gu was trying to trick us by setting the next opening date in March . Now I wish Mr. Gu would close it for another year to prevent other people from coming in."
On the morning of Monday, January 11, the three major indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen opened sharply lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening nearly 50 points lower, and the rebound on Friday was almost gone.
In the morning, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened low and continued to fluctuate at a low level. Near midday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply by more than 3%, falling below 3,100 points at one point. It closed at 3,109.95 points at noon, down 2.4%.
In the afternoon, the two markets continued to fight repeatedly at the 3,100 point level, but ultimately failed to hold it. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 5% at one point, marking the third time in the new year that thousands of stocks hit the daily limit.
However, Tianqi Liye was unusually strong today. It opened low at 99.01 yuan in the morning and rose sharply after opening.
Tianqi Liye's stock price turned positive just 15 minutes after it opened sharply lower, closing at 103.69 yuan, up 0.65%, which was in line with Gu Junhao's judgment on its support and trend.
In the morning, Tianqi Liye's stock price surged by nearly 5% during the trading session, and even surged to around the five-day line of 109 yuan in the afternoon. However, affected by the overall market throughout the day, Tianqi Liye finally closed at 103.80 yuan, up 0.76%.
The trading volume is almost the same as that of the previous trading day. In two trading days, there was a negative line that tested the bottom and a positive line with a long upper shadow that consolidated the bottom. The bottom trend has emerged.
However, there is no sign of any rebound in the index. As of today's close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.29% to 3016.70 points, a bare-foot large real body negative line, and the 3000-point level is in jeopardy.
The Shenzhen Component Index plummeted 6.21%, and the ChiNext Index plummeted 6.34%. More than 1,000 stocks in the two markets hit the daily limit, and more than 2,000 stocks closed in the red, with a total turnover of 664.21 billion yuan.
Today, the RMB central parity rate was raised by nearly 200 points from the previous day's closing price to 6.5628. The central bank began to intervene in the offshore RMB market from today. The offshore RMB exchange rate has fallen to 6.8 as of today, and there is great pressure for capital outflow and depreciation.
The US Federal Reserve claims that it may need to raise interest rates at least four times this year. With external pressure and internal panic, the situation of A-shares is quite bad.
The central bank also formally approved the second batch of overseas central bank-like institutions to enter the foreign exchange market. As of now, a total of 13 overseas central bank-like institutions have completed registration.
The fierce battle to defend the exchange rate began in early 2016. Compared with the exchange rate market, the decline of A-shares is just a piece of cake.
Amid internal and external troubles, A-shares struggled around 3,000 points for one trading day, and officially fell below 3,000 points on Wednesday, January 13.
In the afternoon of January 13, small and medium-sized growth stocks, computers, real estate, automobiles, non-ferrous metals and other sectors fell one after another, and A-shares plunged rapidly, closing at 2949.60 points, down 2.42% on the day.
The Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.06% today to 9,978.82 points, officially falling below 10,000 points. The ChiNext Index plunged to 2,059.78 points, a sharp drop of 4.09% on the day.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell below its 500-day moving average for the first time since August 2014. The average lifespan of a bull market in the A-share market is generally around two years, or about 500 transactions.
Today's official fall below the 500-day moving average also means that A-shares have completely entered a bear market cycle, and the bear market cycle is often longer. In the next few years of this year, investors must be prepared to fight the bear market for a long time.
Tianqi Liye closed with three consecutive positive days within three trading days this week, and the bottom trend has been completely determined. As of today, Tianqi Liye closed at 110.58 yuan, an increase of 7.34% from last week's closing price, and has been above the five-day line for two consecutive trading days.
From this point of view, other lithium battery sector stocks can also be paid attention to. 3,000 points is definitely not the bottom of A-shares. Even if we don’t know this in advance, we can judge it by looking at the current trend.
However, there will definitely be resistance at the policy bottom of 2,800 points in 2015, so there will definitely be fluctuations around 3,000 points until the new market bottom is officially determined. It is still a good idea to start bottom-fishing from this position for Junshi No. 2, which now has a cash flow of more than 5 billion yuan.
In particular, most of the lithium battery stocks are concentrated in the 002 and 300 sectors, and the trading volume at the bottom is still relatively small, so it is necessary to make arrangements in advance.
Unfortunately, Ning Wang has not yet been listed, and there is no opportunity for additional issuance in the primary market. Ning Wang's primary market is not something that a small fund like Gu Junhao can participate in, but its performance after listing is definitely worth paying attention to.
For now, I can only buy some miscellaneous stocks, and then replace my lithium battery positions with Ning Wang after it goes public. Ning Wang will be listed in June 2018, which is still 2 and a half years from now.
Since its listing, Ningwu's stock price has risen from less than 50 yuan to a maximum price of nearly 700 yuan, which took three years and increased more than 20 times. It is definitely a worthwhile investment. After 2022, Ningwang's trend has deeply affected the ChiNext Index.
When Ningwang rises sharply, the ChiNext Index rises sharply; when Ningwang falls sharply, the ChiNext Index falls sharply. If Ningwang adjusts, the ChiNext Index will not be in good shape either. This shows its extraordinary status.
This time, Junshi No. 2 has initially built positions in two lithium battery concept- related stocks. The two stocks share 600 million yuan of funds, which is about 10% of the positions. The two stocks are Ganfeng Lithium and Keheng Holdings.
The closing price of Keheng shares today is 22.70 yuan. Judging from the monthly line, it has lost all the gains of the previous three months. It is not much different from the closing price of 18.33 yuan in September 2015, so it is suitable for building a position.
As for Ganfeng Lithium, its closing price today is 43 yuan. Ganfeng Lithium, which has had five consecutive positive monthly lines, is closest to Tianqi Lithium in terms of trend, and its fundamentals are also closest to Tianqi Lithium.
Ganfeng Lithium's performance is basically normal, but Gu Junhao is a little confused about Keheng Shares. Its current total market value is only 3 billion. He has the impression that this stock should be one of the active stocks in the lithium battery sector.
During the most popular years, Gu Junhao often saw this stock on the gaining board, but the current total market value is only 3 billion, which is a bit embarrassing, but no matter what, he decided to buy some first.
The total market value is only 3 billion, so you can't buy much even if you want to. At least it can't exceed 5% of the total share capital. Otherwise, you will have to raise your hand, which will make a lot of noise. And it will be very troublesome to sell, and you have to issue a notice.
Buying this stock is just a try. Today, Gu Junhao has already bought a small amount of Keheng shares and built a position of 5 million yuan, accounting for about 7% of today's total trading volume.
More positions still need to be invested in Ganfeng Lithium. Ganfeng Lithium's share capital will be appropriate. Even if calculated based on a purchase volume of 600 million yuan, it will only account for about 2% of the total share capital.
On Thursday, January 14, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 2874.05 points, directly falling below 2900 points. It is only 25 points away from the 2015 policy bottom of 2850. The depressed sentiment has infected A-share investors.
On the foreign market, US stocks continued to fall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.2% yesterday, the S&P fell 2.49%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.41%. Oil prices are still falling, and the instability of the exchange rate is testing investors' hearts.
Nvidia's stock price has fallen to US$28.76, which makes Gu Junhao a little excited. Judging from the current trend, it will continue to fall. The more it falls, the more chips he can buy. However, US stocks are different from A shares, and Gu Junhao is not very familiar with them.
During the downward trend, it is still quite dangerous to buy at the bottom. You can only buy again when the price stabilizes. The trend of Mi stocks is very important. Most of the bull stocks are trend stocks. It is safest to buy during an upward trend.
Unless the price drops again to around US$20, close to the last opening price, Gu Junhao will still dare to buy it and he will be able to get more chips.
"Don't worry about the index. Let's continue to buy the bottom of Keheng Shares and Ganfengliye today. Remember, when buying Keheng Shares, you must be careful not to exceed 4% of the total share capital."
After the morning call auction, Gu Junhao said to the two new traders that through nearly half a month of observation, the two were more interested in the small and medium-sized growth stock sector, which was also suitable for bottom fishing in the lithium battery sector.
"Okay." The two traders said excitedly. It had been almost half a month since they started working, but they had not traded anything. They had to practice with a simulated trading platform every day. For experienced traders, this was more painful than killing someone.
I originally thought that this was Mr. Gu's assessment of his new employees, but when I saw that the old employees did the same thing, I knew it was not the case. In addition, Mr. Gu arranged for the team leader and Liu Tingting to build positions on their own two days ago, so I knew that Mr. Gu had no intention of bottom fishing last week.
After the stock index fell below 3,000 points this week, Mr. Gu finally came up with a plan to buy at the bottom. Although only two people have been arranged so far, this also shows that Junshi No. 2 Fund has been launched again.
Especially Guo Yunlin, as a new employee, he is in charge of Keheng Shares. Although the total amount of funds allocated to him is only 120 million yuan, we also need to consider the total market value of Keheng Shares.
For a stock with a total market value of only 3 billion yuan, 120 million yuan of funds already accounts for 4% of its total share capital, which is almost like a stake!
