Chapter 351: Bottom-fishing, self-operated first
In the night trading, US stocks were not much better than A-shares. Global stock markets experienced declines to varying degrees after New Year's Day 2016, and Nvidia continued to fall sharply for two consecutive trading days.
Nvidia's stock price fell as much as 3.96% today, with its intraday share price falling below US$30 and barely closing at US$30.28. In four trading days, the stock price has fallen nearly 10% from the previous year. This is Nvidia's largest adjustment since June last year.
However, the price of 30 US dollars is still a bit high. Compared with the previous opening price of 19 US dollars, there is still a gap of 11 US dollars. The adjustment range of 10% is far from enough. Now that the adjustment has begun, it will not be so easy to end.
The small short positions have already started to make profits, and the adjustments of US stocks and Nvidia have just begun. Based on the current price of 30 yuan, the amount of 160 million US dollars in the account can be used to increase the holdings of Nvidia by about 5.3 million shares.
Theoretically, Nvidia's second increase in holdings should be able to ensure the purchase of at least 5.5 million shares, with a total holding of at least 6.5 million shares. Based on Nvidia's share capital, the impact should not be significant.
Combined with the existing market value cost, it is quite cost-effective to exchange a holding cost of nearly US$180 million for a stake of more than 6.5 million shares of Nvidia.
In fact, even if the US$160 million in the account was not used to buy any stocks, the proprietary trading would have made a profit. It should be noted that these US dollars were originally exchanged at the average exchange rate of about 1:6.2 in 2015.
As the current environment changes, the exchange rate environment has changed greatly in the past two months. The recent sharp depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the market has also surprised the market.
To date, the offshore RMB exchange rate has fallen below 6.7 yuan, hitting a new low since 2009. Over the past few months, the change in the exchange rate has created a profit margin of more than 70 million yuan.
The changes in the foreign exchange market have made the converted US dollars profitable, which is really an unexpected surprise. Compared with the decline in the stock market, the changes in the exchange rate are what concern people the most.
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The circuit breaker mechanism, which had been online for four days, was urgently stopped. At the same time, new regulations on the reduction of holdings by major shareholders, directors, supervisors and senior managers were also released, and will be officially implemented on the 9th.
The new regulations stipulate that if a major shareholder of a listed company plans to reduce its shareholding through centralized bidding, it must disclose the reduction plan in advance 15 trading days in advance, and the total amount of reduction must not exceed 1% of the company's total share capital within 3 months.
The original mandatory prohibition on share reduction during the market rescue will be officially unlocked on January 8, which is after tomorrow's trading. The new share reduction rules can be said to be a seamless connection.
The introduction of the new share reduction rules and circuit breakers at the same time also shows the management's helplessness. Most A-share listed companies do not have a good reputation. If the new rules are not introduced in a timely manner and there are no restrictions on the rules, it is not uncommon for executives and actual controllers of listed companies to take advantage of the situation.
Especially those small and medium-sized start-up stocks that are still at high levels and have high valuations. The actual controllers of these companies secretly reduced their holdings during the previous stock market crash even within the restrictions of the rules. Their desire to escape was very strong.
If there were no rules to restrict this type of people, they would absolutely have no scruples. Fortunately, the "pledge-style reduction of holdings" has not been invented yet when I return to China next week. This has opened the door to a new world of ways for major shareholders of A-shares of listed companies to reduce their holdings.
On Friday, January 8, stimulated by the news that the management urgently suspended the circuit breaker, the Shanghai Composite Index opened nearly 2% higher in the morning. Tianqi Liye, which had hit the limit yesterday, jumped slightly downward to 105.50 yuan. The stock price is already close to the gap when the upward jump started on November 4.
The circuit breaker has been suspended. Judging from the support level, the support strength of this gap is still very strong. According to the habit of A-shares to fill gaps, Tianqi Liye can buy at the bottom after the gap is filled.
On the first trading day after the circuit breaker suspension, although the index opened high, panic still surrounded A-shares. For Tianqi Liye, the gap will definitely be filled today, and the probability of the stock price breaking the 100 yuan mark during the trading session is very high.
At 9:30, the Shanghai Composite Index, which opened nearly 2% higher, quickly plunged downward and headed straight for the gap. As soon as Tianqi Liye opened, more than 125 million yuan of funds began to dump the stock, and the stock price quickly fell to 102.10 yuan, a drop of 3.45%.
"You two, your main task today is to buy back Tianqi Liye from our proprietary trading account and increase your holdings based on the 430 million yuan of reduced holdings." Gu Junhao said to Wang Ruoyu and Liu Tingting.
"Okay." The two responded in unison, and at the same time, they couldn't help but feel refreshed.
This was the boss’s first transaction after the new year. Although he only added to his proprietary trading account, it also showed that he had begun to take action. It seemed that he was waiting for the circuit breaker to be suspended.
The lithium battery sector has unlimited prospects, and bottom fishing after the circuit breaker naturally has its place. Compared with Junshi No. 2, proprietary trading has no performance pressure. For Gu Junhao, it makes no difference when to bottom fish, and it all depends on Gu Junhao's mood.
Among Junshi No. 2's newly created positions, there is naturally a place for the lithium sector concept, but the market is still in a panic. Even if the circuit breaker has been suspended, the downward trend will not change.
The real market bottom should be after falling below 3,000 points. Today is not the time to buy Junshi No. 2 at the bottom.
At 9:42, Tianqi Liye's stock price was 100 yuan, a drop of 5.44%. Gu Junhao's voice also appeared: "Let's start, buy at this price, buy as much as you can."
Tianqi Liye's trading volume increased significantly in the morning session today. Within just over 10 minutes, the trading volume exceeded 400 million yuan. At the price of only 100 yuan, the trading volume exceeded 30 million yuan within one minute.
If you are lucky, there should be no problem in building a position within a day. For large funds, panic selling when the index falls is indeed a good opportunity to buy at the bottom. Only at this time will the trading volume increase.
Junshi's proprietary buying led to a slight rebound in Tianqi Liye's shares. However, the market, which opened high, was still in a panic sell-off. The three major indexes fluctuated by more than 5%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,100 points again.
Under such stimulation, individual stocks continued to fall. Even Tianqi Liye, which had buying support, could not hold on. At 9:45, Tianqi Liye fell again. Within three minutes, the stock price quickly plummeted to 98 yuan, a drop of 8%.
The price of 98 yuan just filled the gap when it started on November 4. The buying volume on the trading page began to increase gradually, and the price did not fall to the limit again today.
"Speed up and buy more. There is capital scrambling for chips." Gu Junhao said as he stood beside Wang Ruoyu. It was not appropriate to hand over this kind of proprietary trading to other traders as it was difficult to calculate the performance.
But Wang Ruoyu and Liu Tingting do not have such worries. Their sense of belonging to Junshi Capital is no less than Xu Jianqing, and they are also very dependent on Gu Junhao.
It has to be said that Gu Junhao's current amount of funds will not affect the overall market, but with all-out buying, it can still affect the stock price trend. With Gu Junhao's all-out buying, Tianqi Liye's stock price stopped falling here.
Just one minute later, Tianqi Liye’s share price was 100.31 yuan, up nearly 3%. At 9:50, Tianqi Liye’s share price was 103 yuan, and the decline narrowed to 2.6%.
In just three minutes, Gu Junhao and the main players in the field pushed Tianqi Liye up by nearly 5%. The combined trend was still very scary.
After a brief correction, Tianqi Liye’s share price was 104.88 yuan at 10 o’clock, and the decline narrowed to less than 1%. Subsequently, Tianqi Liye’s share price showed a fluctuating upward trend. Every time the share price fell rapidly, it was pulled up by large buy orders.
At 10:15, Tianqi Liye's share price was 108.18 yuan, up 2.22%, turning positive for the first time of the day. Within 45 minutes of trading in the morning, Tianqi Liye's share price fluctuated by more than 10%, and an extremely long golden needle bottoming trend was close to forming.
The Shanghai Composite Index, which had plunged more than 5% in panic selling in the morning, has now risen above the daily yellow time-sharing line. The stock index was at 3157.26 points, up 1.03%. The index has temporarily stabilized.
The heavyweight stocks are still maintaining the index. Coal, nonferrous metals, gold, securities, insurance and other sectors have risen sharply to protect the market. Today's situation is very tense.
After only four trading days, the circuit breaker mechanism that the management had fully implemented was forced to be suspended. This was a fatal blow to the credibility and face of the company. If the stock price fell again on the next trading day after the suspension, it would be even more fatal.
The heavyweights are doing their best to protect the market, but stimulated by the commodity market, the stocks that have risen are those in sectors such as coal, nonferrous metals, gold, etc. These stocks are not popular among retail investors in the A-share market.
In the understanding of ordinary investors, supply-side reform is nothing more than reducing overcapacity and raising prices. Most of the large-cap stocks in these traditional industries are the turf of big funds and national teams, while ordinary investors prefer stocks in the small and medium-sized growth sectors.
Especially for new investors in the market, although they have suffered heavy losses, they still favor small and medium-sized start-up stocks. What's more, most people are still trapped at this time, so the sentiment to follow the trend is not high.
As for the securities sector, after the rebound after two stock market crashes last year, investors were looking forward to returning to the bull market stage. However, the stock market crash 3.0 caused by the circuit breaker made more than 80% of investors believe that a bull market is no longer possible.
A true bear market has already formed, and the securities sector is nothing more than a thing of the past. It no longer has the glory it had from 2014 to the first half of 2015. In recent years, every rebound has been nothing more than an opportunity to escape.
With the national team supporting the market, the index maintained a wide fluctuation between 1% and 2%, and Tianqi Liye also maintained a price fluctuation above the flat line.
In the afternoon, the Shanghai Composite Index hit 3,200 points, reaching a high above the five-day line of 3,250 points, an increase of more than 3.5%, but then began to fall rapidly.
The pressure on the index was very obvious. Tianqi Liye also plunged again in the afternoon, and the stock price turned green again. Today, Tianqi Liye's trading volume has increased countless times.
Tianqi Liye’s trading volume basically reached the level of about 12 shares in November last year, and Gu Junhao’s full-scale buying accounted for most of the volume.
The sharp drop caused by the circuit breaker mechanism brought the market back to the era of the stock market crash. The national team tried desperately to maintain the market, and after the rebound, funds in the market fled frantically.
The market's distrust was fully demonstrated at this moment. Even Tianqi Liye, which saw an influx of funds today, was like this. Its stock price turned green and never turned red again.
In terms of sectors today, apart from the commodity attributes and the market maintained by the national team, not many sectors achieved increases. The dive in the afternoon is a good indication of this.
After the end of the day's trading, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3186.41 points, up 1.97%. Although it rose, it was lower than the opening point.
On the K-line, there is a cross negative line with extremely large volume. The pressure on the index daily line, five-day line and 3200 points is very obvious. The ChiNext Index fell sharply to 2248.99 points and closed down 0.33%.
In the first week of trading in 2016, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 9.97% and the ChiNext Index fell by 17.14%, a true stock market crash.
Tianqi Liye's trading volume today increased to 1.8 billion yuan, closing at 103.02 yuan for the day, down 2.58%. The drop in one week was as high as 26.81%.
Throughout the day, Wang Ruoyu and Liu Tingting bought 41,800 shares of Tianqi Liye at an average price of 102.87 yuan, with a total purchase amount of 430 million yuan.
430 million yuan, accounting for 23.88% of Tianqi Liye’s total transaction volume. Such a large buying volume cannot affect the final decline of Tianqi Liye. It can be seen that the market situation under the counter-trend is so irresistible.
The massive increase in capital outflows has become irreversible. Institutions that were still bullish on the evening of the 6th claimed that investors had begun to lighten their positions in the morning trading today.
Junshi Proprietary Trading completed the bottom-fishing of A-shares this week. After that, operations on A-shares will return to a silent state and focus on bottom-fishing of US stock Nvidia.
As for Junshi No. 2, which had no operations this week, the losses were also considerable; the share price of Maotai closed down 6.21% this week at 204.63 yuan, and Wuliangye fell 5.02% this week to 25.91 yuan.
The fund's cash has not changed much, but its market value has dropped from 1.308 billion yuan before New Year's Day to around 1.246 billion yuan, a drop of nearly 60 million yuan, a drop of nearly 5%. The overall scale has also shrunk to 6.443 billion yuan, and the net value is reported at 4.6123.
However, compared with the overall decline of Junshi No. 2 of less than 1%, the fund industry this week was tragic, especially the public funds.
Judging from the net values of major funds announced this weekend, the overall decline has reached more than 3% in many cases. Some public funds were unable to adjust their positions in time and were subject to position restrictions, and the decline was as high as more than 5%.
As for ordinary retail investors, there were countless of them suffering two or three limit downs within a week. The first week of the market opening in 2016 was extremely tragic.
Most investors, combined with the decline before the New Year, are already stuck with more than 30% of their stocks. It will take a whole year's worth of energy to get out of this predicament in the first week of the year.
The goal of trading in the new year of 2016 has been set since the first week of trading, which is: "recover the investment."
Although the news over the weekend was restricted by regulations that prohibit open bearish sentiment, major institutions also published research reports claiming that a downward trend has already formed, which advised investors not to be optimistic and to adjust their positions cautiously.
The overall A-share market is filled with deep bearish sentiment, which was extremely rare before.
