Chapter 339: Vanke A's abnormal price limit
In the evening, Nvidia also ended its last trading day of the month, with its stock price closing at US$31.72, up 11.81% for the month.
This is the fourth positive line at the monthly level for Nvidia. In the past four months, except for September, Nvidia's increase of 9.65% did not reach 10%, while the other three months all exceeded 10%.
The largest increase last month was over 15%. What’s even more terrifying is that its stock price has been rising along the trend for four consecutive months.
If we analyze based on the technical and fund aspects of A-shares, even though Nvidia's stock price has risen by 60% in the four months since its bottoming out, it is far from being an official start.
From a one-sided perspective, Nvidia's performance over the past four months can only be regarded as the main funds building positions, and its monthly line trend has not even deviated too far from the five-day line.
Judging from the daily and even weekly charts, Nvidia's trend is closely following the five-day line, and the trend can be said to be quite beautiful.
If this kind of trend occurs in our A-share market, it will surely be the forte of institutions and a bull stock with a big trend. When it starts, hot money will surely rush in to buy shares.
Once this kind of stock trend falls back to a certain position, it will be a good time to add positions. Gu Junhao has been waiting for such an opportunity. After the profit of Junshi No. 2 was credited, it was not that Gu Junhao did not want to buy it.
The amount of foreign exchange to be exchanged this time is almost 10 times that of the last time, and it is much more difficult. It is difficult to exchange such a large amount without a certain amount of time to prepare. The exchange of foreign exchange is not as simple as imagined.
On the evening of December 30, good news came from Vanke and the real estate sector, which had unusual movements today. According to the normal rhythm, the economic meeting in the middle of this month will determine the tone of economic regulation for next year.
Supply-side reform has become one of the hot topics of this economic conference, and real estate reform will become the core agenda of this supply-side reform. The real estate industry is facing a new round of supply-side reform.
This is what later generations called raising prices to reduce inventory. After this round of reforms, since 2016, housing prices in various regions have begun to rise rapidly, and the speed at which real estate companies acquire land has significantly increased. Housing prices in some second- and third-tier cities and even in small eighteen-tier counties have increased significantly.
At the same time, the rapid leverage expansion of real estate companies also laid a huge hidden danger for subsequent debt problems. Everything has cause and effect.
On December 1, Tuesday, the results of the morning call auction showed that the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices performed mediocrely. Vanke opened slightly lower at 14.99 yuan, but the overall funds in the real estate sector showed an inflow.
At 9:30, after the official trading started, Vanke A performed mediocrely, struggling around the 15 yuan price. Although it opened low, the trend in this low-opening stage was still relatively strong, basically maintaining near the opening price.
Vanke has its own traders to handle the matter. Gu Junhao's main focus today is Tianqi Liye, a proprietary trading platform. Tianqi Liye's stock price has been falling since it hit a new high of 174.50 yuan on the 23rd of this month since this round of rebound.
After five consecutive trading days of correction, the stock price rebounded yesterday to a closing price of 155.70 yuan, but judging from the trend, it is still above the pressure level of the daily line. As soon as the market opened today, Tianqi Liye followed the market and opened slightly lower, and then quickly fell.
Tianqi Liye opened low without any rebound and within less than 10 minutes of trading, its share price fell by nearly 3% to 151.76 yuan.
The daily line opened under the pressure of the 10-day line, and there was suspicion of falling below the 5-day line in less than 10 minutes of trading time. Such a trend fully demonstrated that yesterday's rebound was just an invalid rebound, and the stock price will fall further.
At present, the market value of Tianqiliye’s holdings in proprietary trading has exceeded 450 million yuan. Nowadays, most people no longer mention the issue of rescuing the market, let alone a Shenzhen-listed stock with the name starting with 002.
Tianqi Liye's stock price has already shown signs of a correction. Moreover, after the end of this month, trading will begin after New Year's Day and the circuit breaker will be activated. Naturally, Tianqi Liye needs to reduce its holdings.
With Tianqi Liye's trend clear today, all Gu Junhao has to do is to reduce his holdings. However, it is naturally impossible to sell all his positions of more than 450 million yuan within one day.
Based on yesterday's trading volume of 2.1 billion yuan, the volume will inevitably shrink in the event of today's decline. It would be considered good if a market value of around 100 million yuan could be sold. Now that the specific idea of reducing holdings has been formed, Gu Junhao no longer has any other ideas.
When a stock decides to reduce or liquidate its position, there is no need to consider whether it rises or falls on that day, nor to care about the specific decline of the stock. What's more, Tianqi Liye's profit has exceeded 300 million yuan at this time.
At 10 o'clock, Tianqi Liye's share price was hit to -5.27%, and it fell below the 150 yuan mark to 147.50 yuan. While falling below the five-day line, yesterday's gains were completely swallowed up, and the rebound trend has been completely destroyed.
This kind of low opening and low closing fell along the daily average yellow line, and the trading volume has remained at a large number; such intraday trend deeply illustrates the possibility of a stock price correction from highs.
Even if there is a second wave of trend, it is just a process of rebound and shipment. This kind of trend stock is not as deeply involved as the stocks in Youzi, and there will not be much funds involved in the relay behavior.
As the daily capital outflow from Tianqi Liye increased, its decline further widened. At midday close, the stock price closed at 144.80 yuan, with a daily decline of 7%. Judging from today's trend, the limit down is not surprising.
Tianqi Liye's trading volume in the morning was nearly 1 billion yuan. Gu Junhao, who had no scruples about dumping the stock, exceeded 70 million yuan in the morning. Another stock that was the focus of attention, Vanke A, exploded with the real estate sector after 15 minutes of volatility in the morning.
At 9:50, Financial Street was the first to close the board, leading the sector. Within these five minutes, the share price of Vanke A rose by nearly 4%, with an increase of more than 3%. As of midday closing, Vanke closed at 15.50 yuan, up 2.85% on the day.
In the morning, the trading volume of Vanke A was close to the whole day's volume yesterday. Even if we put aside the possibility of equity dispute, the breakthrough trend of rising volume and price is also very beautiful. The closing price of 15.50 yuan at noon was already the highest price of Vanke since August 11.
With the increase in trading volume for two consecutive trading days, the sector has seen significant gains, bringing with it positive news. For Vanke A, which has seen an increase in trading volume for two consecutive trading days, there is a very high probability that it will form another big positive line today.
Real estate stocks in 2016 are actually a good investment direction. Perhaps appropriate allocations can be made after the circuit breaker. However, this time there are no monster stocks like Home Li Holdings to make up for the changes in market value.
Gu Junhao has no memory of the monster stocks in 2016. In his impression, 2016 was a very chaotic year for A-shares. The hot sectors were not particularly obvious, but were mainly concentrated in the weighted market.
In the afternoon, the real estate sector continued to gain momentum, and Vanke A's afternoon trading was very active. The index remained in a wide range of fluctuations throughout the day, but small and medium-cap stocks, led by the ChiNext, fell significantly today.
The most typical example is Tianqi Liye. In 2015, Tianqi Liye was far from being the giant stock it became in later generations. Including Longji Shares, they can actually be regarded as growth stocks.
Photovoltaics, new energy, and even the lithium battery industry headed by lithium mining, are still mostly dominated by small and medium-sized growth stocks today. These emerging industries represent the future. It can be said that from the stock market crash in 2015 to the bottom of the market in 2018, there were still many high-quality assets in A-shares.
Vanke A rose sharply in the afternoon. At 13:30, the share price rose by nearly 7%, breaking through the 16 yuan mark to 16.10 yuan. Driven by this, the real estate sector started a surge in daily limit stocks, and some real estate stocks with smaller market caps hit the daily limit one after another.
The flooring sector stood out, and today the Shenzhen Component Index performed better than the Shanghai Composite Index. The main reason is that most of the real estate stocks are concentrated in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. At 13:45, Vanke A shares closed at 16.58 yuan, with a daily increase of 10.02%.
After two minutes of fluctuations, a large order came out on the daily limit board of Vanke A, which successfully closed the daily limit; Vanke's daily limit is rare, and the price of 16.58 yuan is also Vanke's high this year, 2% higher than the highest price of 16.25 yuan during the stock market crash in June.
That is to say, under the premise of not making any rash moves, all shareholders who bought Vanke A this year have already untied their positions thanks to the fight for equity. Today's daily limit is definitely more than just a positive factor for Vanke.
In the past, even if there were huge good news, Vanke's stock price rarely hit the daily limit. The stock price performance of this stock was more stable. In Gu Junhao's opinion, Vanke's performance today is more about some large funds participating in a new round of equity competition.
"Haha, there is no need to do T. It actually hit the daily limit today. It's really weird." Cao Wenxun said with a smile. This morning he bought 50,000 lots of Vanke A at an average price of 15.10 yuan. He originally planned to wait until the sector rose in the afternoon before doing intraday T operations.
Today's trend was far beyond his expectations. The market trend made Cao Wenxun realize that something was not going on. Today's trading volume had also far exceeded expectations.
“Since the market is closed so resolutely, there is really no need to sell it today. Just think of it as adding to your position. If you want to do T again later, do it based on the base of 550,000 lots.” Gu Junhao also said with a smile.
For daily T trading, Gu Junhao set a limit of about 10% of the holdings for several people, and let the traders make their own judgment based on the day's trading volume. Vanke A has been transferred to Cao Wenxun since the stock price fluctuated greatly.
Another stock with relatively large fluctuations, Wuliangye, will be handed over to Wu Peng for operation. Currently, Maotai Liquor is jointly managed by Wang Ruoyu and Liu Tingting. After the circuit breaker on New Year's Day, Gu Junhao will establish other positions.
As for US stocks, the people who were interviewed before will also officially start work tonight. There are three of them in total. Together with Xu Jianqing, the four of them will manage a total of nearly 200 million US dollars in funds, with an average of about 50 million US dollars per person, equivalent to about 300 million yuan.
This is just the initial amount of funds. As the stock price changes in the future, the overall amount of funds will definitely change significantly, and may even reach a very considerable number at one point. Four traders still need to be configured.
After New Year's Day, Junshi No. 2 will add another 6 traders, totaling 10 people. Based on the current scale, each person needs to manage an average of 600 million yuan of funds. This amount of funds still provides a lot of room for traders to operate.
As Junshi No. 2 has 10 traders, with its current huge scale, Gu Junhao also has plans for possible public funds in the future. This time, Gu Junhao plans to build positions in 10 stocks, and the configuration is completely based on public funds.
After Xu Jianqing was transferred to the proprietary trading desk, Wang Ruoyu was promoted to the leader of Junshi's No. 2 trading group. Wu Peng and Cao Wenxun had no complaints about this. Xu Jianqing and the other two could be regarded as Gu Junhao's absolute direct descendants, and there was no possibility for them to compete for the position.
It is impossible to not promote a trusted subordinate and let an employee who has been working for less than a year take up an important position. No matter how capable he is, this is unreasonable in any company.
As for Liu Tingting, Wu Peng and Cao Wenxun believe that although she has not been promoted yet, General Manager Gu will mention new opportunities for promotion later . It has to be said that these three young people are really lucky.
After New Year's Day, Junshi Capital's Fund Business Department had a total of 14 traders. Except for Xu Jianqing and three other people who were slightly inexperienced, the rest were all experienced people.
In the new round of recruitment, Gu Junhao also does not plan to train any more new people. The company has entered a stage of rapid development, and key positions can no longer give newcomers more opportunities to adapt.
