Chapter 338: Incomprehensible Net Worth Curve
After November 18, the share price of Vanke A entered a consolidation state, fluctuating repeatedly around the positive line position on the 18th, and the trading volume also returned to normal levels.
However, judging from its trend, it is unlikely that the stock price will fall below 14 yuan. Amid the fierce competition for equity, major investors holding chips in the market are already reluctant to sell, and no one will sell on a large scale at this time.
On the foreign market, the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting showed that almost all central bank members believed that December this year was suitable for raising interest rates, and expectations for a rate hike in December were very strong.
As for A-shares, data shows that as of November 17, with the rebound in the past two months, the financing balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.19 trillion yuan, once again approaching the 1.2 trillion yuan mark.
The market recovery in the past two months has been accompanied by the recovery of margin trading and securities lending. Currently, the cleanup of margin trading has gradually shifted from off-market to on-market.
Another thing is the restart of IPO. IPO has been suspended since the stock market crash. Seeing that the market is gradually improving, the management will restart IPO fundraising next week.
The suspension of IPOs is still relatively beneficial to the market at present. It is no longer seen in later generations to suspend IPOs when the stock market is not doing well or there is a stock market crash.
With the official implementation of the registration system in later generations , the launch of 10 new stocks every week has become the norm regardless of market trends.
As more and more new stocks are issued, the number of stocks in the two markets has exploded, and the number of delisted stocks is far less than the number of issued stocks. The operating system for stock trading will inevitably be optimized again.
The increasing number of new stocks has also meant that the era of mindless left-side bottom-fishing will inevitably pass. After some stocks are listed, with the withdrawal of new stock funds and poor performance of individual stocks, they will inevitably move away from the public's sight and fall step by step.
For some individual stocks that no one cares about and no funds are paying attention to, left-side bottom-fishing may become a bottomless pit, and investors need to change their operating modes in a timely manner.
When it comes to stock investment and trading, investors must have their own systematic model, but they must also make timely adjustments based on market changes. If the original profitable model suddenly stops working, you should stop and think about whether you need to change it.
The recent failure of the Shanghai Composite Index to break through is not unrelated to the restart of IPOs. The management is still a little anxious. Investors have finally restored a little confidence. In such a fragile market environment, every policy change may change the market environment.
In this way, time passed slowly and it came to November 26, another Thursday . The Shanghai Composite Index rose and fell on that day. The index did not break through the previous high of 3670. It plunged and closed at 3636.55 points in the late trading, down 0.34% on the day.
After the ChiNext Index hit a new high of 2915.95 points throughout the day, the highest point since this round of rebound, it began to plummet from the opening, falling 2.22% in one day, and the index returned to 2833.20 points.
Tomorrow will be the first subscription after the restart of this round of IPO. Judging from today's market, the existing speculative funds in the market are pessimistic about the issuance of new shares, and the willingness for capital outflow is quite obvious.
November 27th, Friday, is the second to last trading day of November. The Minor Cold Festival among the twenty-four solar terms has passed. Today is the sixteenth day of the winter month, and the weather is getting colder and colder.
Last Friday, Zhang Yiru celebrated her second zodiac year birthday. In just over a month, Gu Junhao will also be celebrating his 24th birthday. Time has passed in the blink of an eye.
The weather is getting colder, and today's trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was as biting as the winter wind. After the morning call auction ended, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3616.54 points, down by more than 20 points.
"The high position gaps down, today's trend is doomed." Gu Junhao could not help but sigh as soon as the call auction came out.
"Yeah, I feel like there's really no chance today." Cao Wenxun couldn't help but sigh.
As a professional trader, although there is no short-term trading like hot money, he still attaches great importance to the call auction. The call auction starts at 9:15 every day, and professional traders like Cao Wenxun and Wu Peng will start to get into the state.
At 9:15, we observe the unmatched quota in the bidding and the stocks that have been hit by large orders overnight, to confirm the main line sectors that the main funds or hot money want to launch on that day.
After 9:20, sort by the list of gainers, observe the direction of the sectors that the long funds mainly attacked on that day, and look for opportunities; then sort by the list of losers, observe the direction of the sectors that the short funds mainly fled on that day, and identify specific risks.
At 9:25, sort by transaction amount to see how the top stocks performed during the bidding period and whether the price and volume exceeded expectations in order to understand the short-term sentiment of the day.
After 9:25, click on the sector index to see which sector indexes opened significantly higher and whether the main funds are likely to launch this sector as the main direction of the day.
After this series of processes, the workload during the call auction is still very full. This is a professional habit. Although it is impossible to prepare every time, there is still some understanding of the general market trend.
During the call auction in the morning session today, the bullish sentiment was very low, while the sentiment of capital outflow increased significantly. The performance of major sectors, especially the heavyweight stocks, was very sluggish.
In recent times, the weighty sectors have had almost no overall performance, and the index has occasionally closed in the green only due to the brokerage firms' late-day sneak attacks to drive the index. With the momentum of the restart of IPOs, brokerage firms have recently become an important tool for maintaining the index again.
"Just look at the performance of the index and the major sector indices and you will know that today is likely to be a cold day; oh, I am still too anxious."
"Yes, the market sentiment has not fully recovered yet, but they are in a hurry to go public. It is really discouraging. Besides, there are so many financing plates. If there is another stock market crash, it will be a disaster."
"The stock market crash is unlikely to happen. A major adjustment is inevitable. Today we should focus on defense. Let's be more cautious before the New Year."
"OK."
After the official trading started, the three major indexes and individual stocks in each major sector continued to fall. Less than 20 minutes after the opening, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen by more than 1%, and the ChiNext Index fell below 2,800 points. There was no sign of any rebound in the two markets.
This was still an opportunity for short-term funds to flee, and as trading progressed, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets began to accelerate their decline after 11 o'clock. At midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index barely held the 3,600 mark, closing down 1.52%.
In the afternoon
"The adjustment is a bit too drastic. It feels like a stock market crash." Gu Junhao said with a smile as he looked at the market.
"It's impossible to do it. There's no need to operate now. This is the only way today." Wu Peng also stopped and said with a smile.
The market adjustment is beyond expectations. The best way during the trading session should not be to buy the bottom, but to stop trading and wait for opportunities. Even if you really want to buy the bottom, it is best to wait until the end of the trading day and intervene after individual stocks have certain expectations.
At two o'clock in the afternoon, the Shanghai Composite Index was close to falling below 3,500 points. As the decline widened further, it triggered a chain reaction. The index, which had been supported near 3,500 points for less than five minutes, plunged again.
As of 14:15, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3446.77 points, with a daily drop of 5.19%. The ChiNext Index also fell by more than 5% at this time.
There was no miracle, nor any rebound. The subsequent small rebound of the Shanghai Composite Index was unwilling to even touch 3500 points, and the rebound position only stopped around 3480 points.
In the last half hour of trading, the plunge in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets accelerated further, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by more than 6% at one point and the ChiNext Index falling by more than 7% at one point. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3436.30 points today, with a daily decline of 5.48%.
The ChiNext Index closed at 2649.55 points, with a daily decline of 6.48%. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3600 and 3500 points in succession. The intraday declines of the three major indexes all set new records for the largest declines since August 26.
A stock market crash-like decline brought the market sentiment that had been gathered with great difficulty to a freezing point again. This sentiment continued until the afternoon of November 30, the last trading day of this month.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell to its lowest intraday level of 3327.81 points, and the ChiNext Index approached 2500 points, with a low of 2507.38 points. In just two and a half trading days, the index fell by more than 300 points.
It is not a stock market crash, but it is worse than a stock market crash. Although the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have made a V-shaped reversal since 1:30 p.m. as the national team intervened again, the national team can only push up a fixed number of stocks.
Most of the stocks in the two markets have hit new lows again during the three trading days of sell-offs. The profits of a month or even this round of rebound have been wiped out in these three days.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.86% for the whole month, and the ChiNext Index rose 7.84%, but it was still a month in which we made money from the index but not from the market. In the last few trading days of this month, Wuliangye hit the 10-day monthly line for the second time as the market plummeted.
For the whole month, Wuliangye closed down 6.61% at 24.03 yuan, which can be said to have made up for the decline during the suspension period. Maotai rose slightly by 0.21% this month, and the stock price was fixed at 214.31 yuan.
On the last trading day of this month, Vanke A's trading volume unexpectedly increased again, with transactions exceeding 3 billion yuan. It surged 5.68% in one day and 10.24% for the whole month. The stock price has risen to 15.07 yuan.
Vanke's performance today is very obviously another purchase by a party competing for equity. It is not yet certain which party it is, so we can only look forward to Vanke's announcement at that time.
As for the performance of Junshi No. 2 this month, the market is really confused. After raising a large amount of funds, Junshi No. 2, with a total scale of 6 billion yuan, has almost no change in its net value this month compared with its total scale.
At the end of the month, the net value of Junshi No. 2 only rose to 4.2998, and the overall scale was less than 6.007 billion yuan. Considering the scale of 6 billion yuan, the fluctuation in half a month was only 0.1%.
Some of the new investors were confused about the performance of Junshi No. 2, and retail investors also did not understand how Gu Junhao managed to keep the volatility so small. Some colleagues guessed that Gu Junhao might not have built a position yet.
But this behavior is even more incomprehensible. If he is not in a hurry to build a position, why does he need to raise so much money? Could it be that Gu Junhao has already started to lie flat?
