Chapter 327 The Darkness Will Pass
A big positive line changed the belief. Although the stock market did not continue to rise as expected by investors in the next two trading days, but fell for two consecutive trading days, it still maintained its stable trend.
The ChiNext Index performed well in the following two trading days of this week. Each round of rebound started with small and medium-sized enterprises, and the performance of the ChiNext was also in line with the rebound expectations.
Judging from the trends of individual stocks, they all have the temperament for a rebound. Not only Home Deli Holdings and Tong Huashun, but also Tianqi Liye and Longji Holdings, which is personally held by Gu Junhao, are showing the same trend.
It hit the daily limit on September 15 and the daily limit on September 16. The trend slowed down in the following two trading days, but the overall performance was also relatively strong.
Among them, Tianqi Liye has the strongest performance. Since the rebound from 35.424 yuan, Tianqi Liye has benefited from the explosive growth of the Likuang market. Its stock price once reached around 85 yuan. However, in this round of correction, Tianqi Liye, like Home Depot, did not set a new low.
Although the proprietary account has not traded in the same way as the fund account, even though the market has fallen to today, Tianqi Liye has remained profitable since it bought the position and has never suffered a loss.
As of the close of September 18, Tianqi Liye closed at 59.20 yuan, with a profit of 68% in its proprietary account. However, Longji shares in Gu Junhao's personal account are currently in a loss.
Longji shares closed at 8.78 yuan today, and its current loss margin is 13.9%. This stock has good potential in the future. As the market has stopped falling, Gu Junhao will increase his holdings next week.
It is unlikely that Longji shares will be priced below 10 yuan for a long time. Even during the stock market crash in 2016, the stock price might not fall to that level.
Unlike most investors and some institutions in the current market, Gu Junhao does not feel desperate about the current market situation of A-shares. Instead, he believes that there are certain opportunities.
The current market is no different from the previous life. Both ordinary retail investors and most institutions are full of despair about the market conditions in September and even in the following months of this year.
Regarding the cleanup of leveraged funds, the national team's current total purchase market value accounts for almost one-third of the tradable shares of A-shares. All of this hangs like a sword of Damocles over the heads of large and small institutions and retail investors.
Coupled with the deep fear caused by the stock market crash, it will take some time to heal the trauma .
In his previous life, Gu Junhao had also lurked in the retail investor group. He remembered clearly that before the National Day, almost all retail investors in the group and on social media were thinking about clearing their positions before the holiday and did not want to take advantage of the subsequent market conditions.
All this is because people are really afraid of falling, thus missing out on the rebound in the fourth quarter that was expected to trigger the circuit breaker. By the time the investors reacted, the circuit breaker had already come.
All in all, in Gu Junhao's opinion, the market conditions in the second half of September are a good time to build a position; at the same time, there are only more than two months left before the closed period of Junshi No. 2 ends.
During these two months, Gu Junhao also wanted to bring greater profits to Junshi No. 2 through his own efforts, not just from the customer's perspective.
This is also a good thing for Junshi Capital.
The more shares you get, the more money you can invest in foreign stock markets. The sense of accomplishment that comes from making money is much more pleasant than making small profits in the A-share market.
Since September 21, in the remaining eight trading days of September, in addition to building up his personal holdings in Longji Shares, Gu Junhao also made preparations to increase his holdings in Vanke A again.
Since the stock market crash in June, when Baoneng started to build a position in Vanke, it has been holding on to the 13 yuan price for three months. In the last few trading days of September, it finally showed a trend of falling below that level.
Vanke's stock price continued to fall. In addition to the adjustment factor that A-shares entered the second half of September, the more important point is that after the second acquisition , Baoneng could not buy again for a period of time.
This also caused Vanke to temporarily lose the support of large funds, and thus there was a risk of falling below the 13 yuan price again. On September 24, Vanke reported 13.09 yuan, and its share price fell 0.46% during the day. This was Vanke's fifth consecutive trading day of adjustment.
Vanke's management welcomed Baoneng's first takeover. At that time, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission called on insurance funds to enter the A-share market without any reinforcement and relaxed the upper limit of the proportion of insurance funds invested in blue-chip stocks and equity assets, thus removing the shackles for insurance funds to enter the market.
Under such circumstances, various insurance funds rushed into the market to buy at low prices. Various acquisition and anti-acquisition battles took place one after another in the past few months. Currently, a number of listed companies have been taken over by more than a dozen insurance companies including Baoneng and Anbang, taking advantage of the opportunity of policy relaxation.
As a leading company in the real estate industry, Vanke has excellent performance. According to the 2014 annual report, Vanke's total assets at that time were approximately 500 billion yuan and its total profit was approximately 25 billion yuan.
Unlike many real estate developers with high debts and poor cash flow, Vanke, a real estate giant, had a staggering cash flow of 62.7 billion yuan in its accounts in 2014.
The largest shareholder holds only 14.89% of the shares. The equity is dispersed, the stock price is cheap, the performance is excellent, and there is a high cash flow in the account. It is impossible for insurance funds to let go of this piece of fat meat.
If calculated based on Vanke's lowest price of 8.3 yuan after the stock market crash in June this year, it would only cost 13.7 billion yuan to buy 15% of the shares. With less than 20 billion yuan, one can become the largest shareholder of the real estate giant. Who can resist such temptation in front of powerful insurance funds?
Unlike the management's welcoming attitude when Baoneng raised its stake the first time during the stock market crash, Vanke's management responded quickly after Baoneng raised its stake the second time. This marked the beginning of what was later described as the most exciting business war in the country.
Gu Junhao had watched this business war in his previous life. As the longest-lasting, largest-scale, and most widely-involved capital game war in the history of domestic business, it lasted a total of four years.
Various capitals took turns to appear on the scene, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission also all appeared. The excitement was so great that it is impossible to describe it in words.
Entering the second half of September, with Baoneng temporarily stopping buying, the counterattack of Vanke’s management began, and the defenders officially appeared in this business war. The current falling stock price is a response.
Most of Baoneng's holdings have very high financing leverage ratios. This acquisition is extremely risky, which is one of the reasons why Vanke has been sticking to the price of 13 yuan.
Unlike his previous life, Gu Junhao was just a small fry in his previous life and did not have enough funds to make a fortune. Moreover, the stock market crash had just recovered at that time. Apart from thinking about a rebound, Gu Junhao was not very interested in the competition between the two sides.
This kind of business war cannot be resolved overnight. Instead of wasting time participating in offensive and defensive battles, ordinary retail investors should prepare for their own rebound.
When gods fight, it is always the mortals who suffer.
But this life is different. Today, Gu Junhao has a certain amount of funds and time to participate in this business war and fish in troubled waters. In the remaining trading days of this month, Gu Junhao also completed an increase of 200,000 shares of Vanke in the last two trading days.
By the end of this month, Junshi No. 2 Vanke A's total holdings increased to 500,000 lots, with a holding cost of 12.88 yuan. Vanke A closed at 12.73 yuan as of September 30, and currently has a slight floating loss.
The personal account also increased its holdings of Longji shares. This time, Gu Junhao held 300,000 lots of Longji shares in his personal account, with the cost controlled within 9.5 yuan, and the total expenditure was 285 million yuan.
For the 285 million yuan, Gu Junhao did not use a single cent of his margin trading position. Everything was his own cash. It can be said that he can hold on to the stocks forever.
Even if Longji shares were halved again, Gu Junhao had nothing to panic about. It was no longer important whether the 285 million yuan was a loss in the short term or not.
On the last trading day before the National Day, when the market was gloomy, Gu Junhao completed the bottom-fishing operation since the two stock market crashes, and he did it in the name of saving the market. He gained both fame and fortune.
Currently, Junshi's No. 2 account holds a total of five stocks, including Wuliangye, Maotai Liquor, Vanke A, Tonghuashun and the popular stock Home Depot. In addition to the market value, Junshi's No. 2 account still holds 1.118 billion yuan in cash.
Gu Junhao does not plan to build up any more positions with this cash, in order to cope with daily T trading and the redemption behavior of customers after Junshi No. 2 is opened for redemption.
Junshi's proprietary trading still holds Tianqi Liye and NVIDIA. Tianqi Liye has not moved a single share, while NVIDIA is managed by Xu Jianqing on a daily basis and is currently experiencing a good growth trend. These are all assets of the company.
The five holdings of Junshi No. 2, plus cash, whose net value needs to be announced today, have a total size of nearly 3.39 billion yuan, and a net value rate of 6.7791, an increase of more than 170 million yuan compared to last month, and the overall growth rate is 5.22%.
Although the increase of 5.22% is not large, it is already quite good. You should know that this month the Shanghai Composite Index still fell by 4.78%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 5.32%, and although the ChiNext Index rose by 4.3%, Junshi No. 2 also outperformed it.
Since the peak in June, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 2,126 points, the ChiNext Index has fallen by 1,918 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index has fallen the most, from its highest point of 18,211 points to 9,988 points today, a total drop of 8,223 points, almost halving.
From this perspective, the Shenzhen Component Index suffered the most in this stock market crash, and the corresponding decline in the Shenzhen Component Index was also very severe.
The main contribution to Junshi No. 2 Fund's performance this month came from two newly established stocks, Home Depot and Tonghuashun. Tonghuashun closed at 39.51 yuan at the end of the month, which was also a certain increase compared to the establishment price .
Judging from the monthly line, the trends of Tong Huashun and Maotai are relatively similar. Tong Huashun's monthly line has six consecutive negative lines, and Maotai's monthly line has four consecutive negative lines. However, in October of this month, the decline was narrowed with a very small cross negative line.
Tonghuashun fell 4.5% in the month, and Maotai fell 2.59% in the month. Both of them have stabilized on the monthly 60-day line. As for Vanke A, this stock has no effect only from the perspective of technical analysis.
The one that contributed the most to Junshi No. 2 was Home Deli Holdings, which established a position at 20 yuan. Home Deli Holdings had a total of 9 daily limits since it hit the daily limit on September 14 until September 24.
On September 24, Home De Lisboa Holdings seemed particularly crazy. The stock price experienced the trend of ceiling and floor and then floor and ceiling and floor within one share. Finally, the stock price closed at 50.16 yuan. This crazy trend attracted great attention from the market.
If you do T right, you can say you made crazy money today. Sell at the upper limit, buy at the lower limit, and then hit the upper limit again at the end of the trading day. This super-stimulating trend has undoubtedly greatly stimulated a large number of retail investors.
Judging from the Dragon and Tiger List after the market closed, with a transaction volume of more than 1.55 billion yuan today, the hot money in Home Depot was really crazy about T-trading, and almost all of them were fully invested.
However, it was precisely because of the nine consecutive boards and today's madness that the share price of Home Depot rose to 50 yuan again, which made the Shenzhen Stock Exchange unable to bear it anymore, and it also took the drastic measure of suspending trading.
In the following few trading days of this month, Home De Lisboa shares were suspended. The closing price of 50.16 yuan at the end of the month and the monthly increase of 89.86% brought Junshi No. 2 a floating profit of more than 150 million yuan.
The floating profit of Junshi No. 2 in one month was only a little over 170 million yuan, and Home De Lisboa single-handedly supported the net value curve of Junshi No. 2.
After officially announcing this month's net worth, Gu Junhao breathed a sigh of relief and said to everyone including Xu Jianqing, "Okay, take a good rest during the seven-day National Day holiday. You've been exhausted in the past few months."
Xu Jianqing did not work the night shift last night, so Gu Junhao asked him to participate in today's trading and pre- and post-market meetings to make a summary of recent transactions and also let him take a rest.
Working long night shifts is a great test for the human body.
Since the big surge on September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has not had any major fluctuations and has maintained a trend of small ups and downs. This trend is very similar to that around 2,000 points, and basically conforms to Gu Junhao's judgment.
Following Gu Junhao's summary, everyone breathed a sigh of relief. They had been quite nervous during this period of time and they could finally take a break during the National Day holiday.
