Chapter 326: Solidifying the Bottom
The difficult bottoming trend is still continuing. On September 14, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high and closed low, and a sharp drop occurred without any warning. The market performance was very strange.
Since opening high in the morning, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices have been falling unstoppably. The Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 5% at one point during the session, and the ChiNext Index showed no sign of rebounding all day.
The market environment is not good, and "monster stocks" are in the spotlight. Home Deli Holdings, which stopped falling last week, opened 1.59% higher at 21.66 yuan after the call auction today, and started to rise.
As the market plunged, Home Depot opened high and continued to rise throughout the day. The increase in less than five minutes after opening was close to 5%. Then, after oscillating along the intraday yellow moving average for a few minutes, it started to rise again.
Judging from the trend in the early trading session, Home De Lisboa shares are already showing signs of hitting the daily limit, which is a standard method used by hot money to push up prices.
At 10 o'clock, Home De Liss Holdings reported 23.04 yuan, up 8.07% on the day. Then there was another round of volatility like the early morning session. At 10:25, Home De Liss Holdings reported 23.45 yuan, up 9.99% on the day.
It rises, oscillates to clean the market, then rises again, oscillates to clean the market again, and then closes the board. It is a very standard trend.
In the afternoon, with the support of sectors such as banks and liquor, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom, and finally ended Monday's trading with a drop of 2.67%.
The ChiNext Index opened high and closed low throughout the day, falling 7.49%. The index fell below 2,000 points again, closing at 1,906.21 points. Thousands of stocks in the two markets hit the daily limit again.
Tonghuashun's share price hit the lower limit today, unsurprisingly, with a daily turnover of 355 million and a share price of 37.71 yuan, less than 10% away from falling below the lowest price in August.
There is no substantial negative news in the market. If we really want to explain today's sharp drop, there is nothing else to explain except the China Securities Regulatory Commission's requirement to clean up margin financing last week.
Under the shadow of the liquidation of capital allocation, the market is still in a state of panic.
After the market closed, the China Securities Regulatory Commission also held a special press conference to explain the market's concerns about the cleanup of capital allocation.
However, this speech did not have an immediate effect. On September 15, the two markets fell again after the previous day's dark opening. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.52% to 3005.17 points, barely holding the 3000 point mark.
The ChiNext Index also fell again by 5.79%, falling below 1,800 points to 1,797.56 points. Tonghuashun once again hit the limit down, and its share price hit a new low in this round, at 33.94 yuan.
Today, more than 700 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets also hit the daily limit.
Looking back at this round of stock market crash, from June 19th to today, a total of 60 trading days, A-shares have experienced a total of 17 very tragic limit-down waves. On the day of the limit-down wave, at least 755 stocks hit the limit-down, and at most 2179 stocks hit the limit-down.
Among the 60 trading days, there were 17 days when thousands of stocks hit the daily limit, which is equivalent to a probability of 28.3%. In other words, on average, there was one day when thousands of stocks hit the daily limit every 3.5 trading days.
The severity of this stock market crash has never been seen before in the history of A-shares.
However, there is good news today. The net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect against the market trend today exceeded 1.1 billion yuan, and the quota used today accounted for as much as 8.59%. In addition, the net outflow of both stocks today was significantly lower than that on Monday, with a ratio of as high as 52.10%.
From the perspective of capital, today's net inflow of stocks increased from 259 yesterday to 382 today. From the perspective of capital, today is more like a panic-like decline with unlimited volume.
All of this is the experience summarized by Gu Junhao at the closing review meeting. However, everything will depend on the performance of the market tomorrow. If this round of sharp decline stops here without any negative factors,
Therefore, it can be concluded here that the market has fallen back for the second time at the bottom, rather than another bottomless pit.
When the price of liquor soared in the past, there were rumors about the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and foreign capital preferring liquor. Gu Junhao didn't know whether this news was true or not, but the liquor sector did play a role in protecting the market in the past two days.
In the two trading days when the market fell, Maotai's stock price has returned to above 200 yuan, closing at 202 yuan, with an increase of 4.99% and 0.26% in two trading days. The market-protecting effect is very obvious.
On September 16, the stock price was exhausted after two consecutive trading days of sharp decline. Today, the two markets had mixed gains and losses, and most investors have entered a state of despair.
However, Gu Junhao seemed very interested. As long as the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index stopped their sell-off and did not break their previous lows today, Gu Junhao would start building a position in Tong Huashun.
After all, Tonghuashun, which costs more than 30 yuan, is really a good deal, both in the long run and in the short run. According to its performance, the price of more than 30 yuan is far from enough to match it.
The fundamental reason for such a mindless drop is the potential risk of delisting. Once the risk of delisting is lifted, there will be a retaliatory rebound.
Others are panicking but I am greedy. Tong Huashun is in this state now.
At 9:25, the call auction ended and Tonghuashun was quoted at 33.90 yuan. Compared with yesterday's closing price, there was a downward gap of 0.04 yuan. However, this small gap was quickly recovered after the official trading began.
Regardless of how the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market indices opened, they continued to fluctuate downward in the morning session. Tonghuashun opened at 34.70 yuan, up 2.24%, and then continued to decline as the index fluctuated.
However, the fluctuation of Tonghuashun today is obviously not large, maintained within 3%. At present, the performance is still normal, and there seems to be a trend of stopping the decline.
Generally, these stronger individual stocks will stop falling before the overall market. The advance action and sense of smell of large funds are unmatched by retail investors.
At 9:45, Tonghuashun closed at 34 yuan, with a small decline, which was more stable than the performance of the three major indexes. The index has not fallen below the low point since August 24 so far.
Seeing this, Gu Junhao began to prepare for Tong Huashun's position building task, and still handed it over to Cao Wenxun: "Tong Huashun can start building a position. The price is close to half of what we bought last time. This time, prepare to buy 60,000 lots."
"Okay." Cao Wenxun responded. Gu Junhao had convinced everyone including Wu Peng about the transactions after the stock market crash, and there was nothing to question.
From the liquidation of Tonghuashun and to the increase in holdings of Maotai Liquor, all have been successful. Even though there was a substantial pullback at a certain stage, the overall performance of Junshi No. 2 still maintained a steady increase.
Especially this time of the re-establishment of Home Depot shares, the cost of 20 yuan compared to the stock price which has almost accelerated to the daily limit today, has already provided a profit margin of 41.9%.
Home De Lisboa opened at 28.18 yuan today and quickly hit the daily limit in less than a minute after opening, with the share price at 28.38 yuan. After two consecutive daily limits this week, Home De Lisboa officially began to accelerate today.
At 9:55, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a new low of 2893.53 points and then the decline narrowed. The index began to bottom out and rebound. Tonghuashun had already hit a new low of 33.75 yuan two minutes ago and then began to rebound.
At this moment, Tonghuashun was priced at 34.16 yuan, with a share price increase of 0.65%; at 10 o'clock, Tonghuashun rose rapidly, rising nearly 4% within 5 minutes, and the share price was 35.27 yuan.
This time, the purchase volume exceeded 10 million yuan. It was a large amount that Gu Junhao asked Cao Wenxun to invest in to test today's selling pressure. At present, it seems that the selling pressure is not very heavy.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets ended their decline at 9:55 and began to rebound. The indexes never touched the previous low again. So far, the trends of the two markets have been close to Gu Junhao's expectations. Subsequently, Cao Wenxun began to increase his efforts to build positions.
As for the index and individual stock trends, any prediction is actually useless, but you still need to have a basic judgment on the targets you want to buy and the market trends.
After the index and even the trends of individual stocks have reached your expectations, you can buy without hesitation. When engaging in stock trading, you must trust your own judgment and at the same time, try to avoid being affected by external news and the market as much as possible.
If your psychological expectation for buying a stock at the bottom is 10 yuan, when it falls to around 10 yuan or below 10 yuan, you can start to build a position tentatively. If the subsequent trend meets your expectations, you can then increase your position.
Similarly, when a stock rises above your expectations, you can also start to gradually reduce your holdings to pocket your profits as soon as possible.
You should always remember that the ultimate goal of buying stocks is to sell them for a profit. The cost is not very important, as long as you make a profit. At the same time, never expect to buy a stock at the lowest point or sell it at the highest point. This is unrealistic.
Since 10 o'clock in the morning, the stock price of Tonghuashun has been fluctuating between 35 yuan and 34 yuan. This process lasted until two o'clock in the afternoon. Big funds like Gu Junhao tacitly set the stock price in a reasonable range to build positions.
During the volatility process, it is undoubtedly the majority of retail investors who are shaken away. This is cruel and realistic.
Retail investors prefer to buy at the bottom, but in most cases, they will already be fully invested before the real bottom is reached, and when the real bottom is reached, they will often sell at a loss and leave the market due to panic.
At the same time, some retail investors feel that it is not scary to lock in 50%, but if it rises by 5%, they will definitely wonder whether to sell it. What if the price falls again if they do not sell the 5%.
This is the trend of Tonghuashun today. It fluctuates in a range of 5%, and the stock price falls from time to time. There are quite a few individual sell orders in the process. A simple shake-out can make them hand over their chips.
At two o'clock in the afternoon, after a day of volatility, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets began to rise violently. Major theme sectors exploded one after another, the ChiNext Index performed strongly, and the two markets started the last hour of violent rise.
The Shanghai Composite Index rushed to 3,100 points and once approached 3,200 points, almost recovering the losses of the previous two trading days in one day. Tong Huashun also started the mode of pulling up and buying shares.
At 2:30, Tonghuashun’s share price was 36.33 yuan, up 7.04%. After a brief fluctuation and falling back to around 5%, the share price started to rise again. At 14:40, Tonghuashun’s share price was 37.33 yuan, up 9.99%.
During the same period, the ChiNext Index rose by more than 7% and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 4.5%. Tonghuashun's limit lasted until the end of the trading session.
Throughout the day, the two markets bottomed out and rebounded explosively. The Shanghai Composite Index surged 4.89% to close at 3152.26 points, and the ChiNext Index surged 7.16% to close at 1926.25 points.
Tonghuashun hit the limit down yesterday, and today the fluctuation range exceeded 10%, with the stock price hitting the limit up, which is very similar to the bottoming out of Home Depot last week. Even in the remaining two trading days of this week, Tonghuashun's trend was also one up and one down.
After the end of this week's trading, Tonghuashun closed at 37.81 yuan. In three trading days, the large trading volume of Tonghuashun allowed Gu Junhao to buy another 60,000 chips, with a total investment of 219 million yuan and a cost of 36.5 yuan.
When others abandoned me, I gave it to them. During Tong Huashun's most difficult period, Gu Junhao once again built up a large position and made a certain profit.
At the same time, this week's trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets can also be seen as a consolidation of the bottom position.
