Chapter 297 Embrace the Main Market
Three days passed by in a flash; during the last three trading days of February, although the index continued to set new highs, it did not leave any impression on people.
Due to holiday syndrome, most people have not yet entered the working state.
As the two sessions approach, market news emerges frequently, deeply affecting the trading of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, especially the trends of the main board's heavyweight stocks.
Since entering 2015, A-shares have been deeply affected by policies and have experienced huge fluctuations.
In Gu Junhao's view, the series of fluctuations are still determined by the speculation mechanism of A-shares themselves.
The index remains high, and once there is any policy change, it can rise or fall sharply.
The high stock index makes both ordinary investors and institutional investors appear particularly unconfident.
All everyone can think of is to escape or re-enter the market in a timely manner as policies change.
A-shares have a long way to go if they want to establish a true value investment system.
Or perhaps the so-called value investment in A-shares is just a false proposition, and all value will only come from the profits obtained.
Over the weekend, the market released a series of news of profound significance to A-shares. The official approval of the SSE 50 and CSI 500 index futures increased the probability of fluctuations in heavyweight stocks.
The futures market is different from the A-share market, and its risks and fluctuations are quite large.
During the stock market crash in June, some people took advantage of the uniqueness of futures to short A-shares in order to gain greater profits.
In addition, the interest rate cut policy announced by the central bank after the holiday has now been officially implemented.
However, in Gu Junhao's view, this news is not necessarily good news. Previous expectations were too high, and the big financial and weighty sectors have already responded in advance.
The purpose of the hype expectations has been achieved, and when the expectations are actually realized, the market's hype sentiment will naturally cool down to a certain extent.
But the hottest topic this weekend is undoubtedly a video about smog posted by a certain host.
This video went viral on the Internet and caused a huge sensation. It was the hottest topic on the Internet within two days of the weekend.
In his previous life, Gu Junhao had also experienced this scene, but with the subsequent collapse of this host's personality, no one mentioned it again.
Now experiencing this scene again, I have a different feeling.
When talking about this topic with Zhang Yiru at home today, what Gu Junhao thought of was the collective abnormal movement of environmental protection stocks on Friday.
Any major event will be accompanied by economic effects reflected in the stock market, and this time is no exception.
If nothing unexpected happens, environmental protection stocks will continue to perform well next week.
Gu Junhao is not very interested in environmental protection stocks, mainly because the hype logic of environmental protection stocks does not conform to Gu Junhao's investment thinking.
The environmental protection stock industry has certain entry barriers in some areas, and some even require an administrative licensing system to enter. There are no large monopoly giants in the market, but the company's business is relatively single.
There is not much room for imagination in terms of performance, as it mainly relies on tax subsidies and the value is not high.
For some environmental protection funds that rely on franchising, the investment costs, construction and operation, and the time required to recover funds can be as long as 20 to 30 years, and the fixed cost investment is very high.
Moreover, its partners are basically local governments. A series of factors such as economic downturn and government personnel changes will cause great uncertainty in the company's business. Gu Junhao is not very optimistic about this type of company.
Long-term logic is not enough to support the foundation of a company, and it relies more on short-term hype.
Whenever the A-share market enters a period of adjustment, a portion of environmental protection stocks will be pulled in to make up the numbers. This also shows that even if there is speculation, their position is still in the back row.
There are nearly thousands of stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and each one has the potential to rise. However, as an ordinary investor, it is impossible to analyze every company or every sector so thoroughly.
Ordinary investors should focus more on the main market trends and embrace them.
In addition to being able to obtain more sufficient profits, it can also be relatively safer.
When the overall market conditions change, the main market tends to be more resilient than other sectors.
If we talk about embracing the main storyline in the current market, Gu Junhao is definitely one of the leaders, which can be seen from the performance of the two Junshi funds.
After the end of February, the performances of the two Junshi funds were quite different. Affected by the sharp pullback of Yinzhijie after the holiday and the suspension of Dongfang Wealth, the overall scale of Junshi No. 1 withdrew to less than 413 million yuan, which was more than 2 million yuan less than before the holiday, and the net value also dropped to 10.3203.
Although Dongfang Wealth's Junshi No. 2 fund was also suspended, it benefited from the sharp rebound of two Chinese-character stocks and Yellow River Securities. After the end of this month, the overall size of the fund reached 1.19 billion yuan, with a net asset value rate of 2.3817.
Things change, and three days after the holiday, it was Junshi No. 2's turn to rise, while Junshi No. 1 retreated slightly.
Although a letter was written to investors before the holiday to explain why the two funds had different increases, nothing can be more real than specific data.
March 2, Monday, trading day.
Stimulated by the weekend news, the three major indexes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all opened higher, with the ChiNext Index performing the best. The ChiNext Index jumped higher and opened at 1944.11 points, up more than 16 points.
Affected by the smog video that went viral on the Internet over the weekend, environmental protection stocks soared across the board. More than a dozen environmental protection component stocks, including Feida Environmental Protection and Xianhe Environmental Protection, opened at the daily limit.
"The leeks were cut too arrogantly. There was an abnormal movement last Friday, and today it is directly flat."
Looking at the unusual movements in the environmental protection sector, Gu Junhao shook his head.
Since the stock price has been flat, ordinary retail investors naturally cannot buy in. By the time they are able to buy in, it is time to take over the shares.
There is no need to participate in this kind of short-term flat trading with no turnover rate unless there is a long-term expectation.
With the excitement about environmental protection stocks, the hot stocks today are undoubtedly small and medium-sized innovative stocks.
After the official trading started, the ChiNext Index opened high and ended high, with no sign of filling the gap.
However, the Shanghai Composite Index, which also opened high, fell rapidly and the stock index fell rapidly; within ten minutes, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 0.6% and the index turned green again.
The weighted sectors most affected by the interest rate cut performed differently, with securities and steel performing the best.
The banking sector is a victim of interest rate cuts, and the rapid development of Internet finance has also eroded the profits of traditional banks to a certain extent.
Banks became an important sector dragging down the index today, and the rise of sectors such as steel and coal also added variables to the broader market.
At 10 o'clock, Cao Wenxun, who was trading, suddenly said, "The brokerage firms are not that strong today. So far, there has not been a single daily limit increase. Only Northeast Securities has slightly touched the daily limit."
Gu Junhao took over the topic and said, "This is normal. The performance of securities companies last week is the true reflection of the expectation of interest rate cuts. This week will definitely be dominated by shipments. You can be bolder in doing T."
"This morning, Zhongxin Securities announced a reduction in the benchmark one-year financing rate. This is good for investors, but not so good for the performance of securities firms."
"The brokerage firms have risen quite a lot, and most of the big funds have made huge profits. The room for further growth should be relatively limited."
In the trading room, in addition to being busy with operations, everyone is also expressing their opinions on the market and sectors.
However, according to Gu Junhao's observation, among these five people, even senior traders like Wu Peng and Cao Wenxun do not think that the market will continue to rise sharply.
Since the beginning of 2015, the slow bull market that the management has been creating seems to be gradually accepted by everyone, and the ups and downs of the market are gradually being recognized by the market.
No one would have thought that the Shanghai Composite Index, currently hovering around 3,300 points, would soar by nearly 1,900 points in the next two months, and the ChiNext Index would reach an unprecedented level of over 4,000 points.
Even those who experienced the big bull market in 2007 probably never imagined the crazy rise in prices that would follow, right?
This can be said to be Gu Junhao's unique information gap advantage.
The differentiation of the weighty sectors caused the Shanghai Composite Index to fluctuate greatly, and it even fell below 3,300 points at one point during the session. However, the ChiNext Index continued to rise. Just after 10:30 in the morning, the ChiNext Index had broken through 1,970 points, up more than 2%.
There was also no lack of differentiation in the small and medium-sized start-up sector, which saw a sharp rise during the day. Stocks that were strong in the early stages, such as Tong Huashun and Yin Zhijie, performed relatively averagely today.
Tonghuashun's growth is pretty good, but Yinzhijie seems a bit weak today.
The small and medium-sized enterprises that rose today were mostly in the categories of environmental protection, energy, and natural gas. It was more like a compensatory rally in relatively low-level sectors.
It is impossible to predict how long the low-level compensatory rally can last.
In the afternoon, the rebound of the Shanghai Composite Index further boosted the sentiment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. The ChiNext Index continued to rise, surging by more than 3%.
After a full day of trading, the ChiNext Index closed with a gap-up positive line, with a daily increase of 3.06%.
At 1986.99 points, there are only less than 15 points away from breaking through 2000 points, making people feel as if they are seeing the rise of the ChiNext in 2013 again.
In 2013, the ChiNext Index rose by 82.73% throughout the year.
Since the beginning of 2015, in just two months so far, the ChiNext Index has risen from the lowest level of around 1429 points to the current level of around 2000 points.
In 36 trading days, the ChiNext Index has risen by nearly 40%, and it has been running wildly, continuing to leave the main board market behind.
Among the small and medium-sized growth stocks, a series of stocks such as Internet finance, high dividend and bonus concepts and secondary new stocks continue to lead the main storyline.
The Shanghai Composite Index finally rebounded in the afternoon, with the stock index rising 0.78% to 3336.28 points.
Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets achieved a good start in March. Today, except for the securities companies, which performed reasonably well, the rest of the three major financial sectors all retreated to varying degrees.
The official implementation of the interest rate cut did not produce as strong a reaction in the A-share market as before due to the fear of high prices. Today, some heavyweight stocks such as banks also saw a large outflow of funds.
The market performance was not as good as expected, which naturally led to a large outflow of funds. On Tuesday, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower in the morning. The Shanghai Composite Index opened nearly 20 points lower at 3317.69 points.
At the beginning of the opening, the Shanghai Composite Index quickly fell, and the opening point of 3317.69 points became the highest point of the day.
The banking and insurance sectors, which pulled back yesterday, continued to adjust downward today.
The securities sector did not have the highlight performance of yesterday and also adjusted significantly; sectors such as real estate and computer applications also entered a period of adjustment. Several major sectors with concentrated heavyweight stocks became the main force for shorting the market.
The ChiNext Index opened slightly lower in the morning and then started to fluctuate higher. The environmental protection sector, which surged yesterday, began to show signs of differentiation.
Tong Huashun and Yin Zhijie failed to continue their rebound today and continued to fall after opening low.
The main sectors that rose in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today were non-ferrous metals and medical sectors such as chemical pharmaceuticals and biological products.
Whenever the medical sector rises, it often means that the main funds begin to enter a defensive phase.
During the morning trading, the Shanghai Composite Index maintained a low-level oscillation trend after opening low and then moving downward, while the ChiNext Index seemed to be making an impact towards 2,000 points.
At 10 o'clock, the ChiNext Index was at 1995.83 points, up 0.45%.
However, as several popular sectors that were popular yesterday showed signs of differentiation today, and the performance of individual stocks that were strong in the early stage was also very general, the ChiNext Index failed to break through 2,000 points in the morning period, and the highest was 1,998.34 points.
Nearing midday closing, the ChiNext Index closed at 1989.39 points, up 0.12%, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3306.66 points, down 0.89%.
The three major financial sectors all fell by more than 1%.
After the afternoon trading officially started, the ChiNext Index rose rapidly, continuing the morning's upward trend. At 13:20, the index finally broke through the 2000 point mark and closed at 2004.03 points.
However, at the moment when the index was surging, many stocks among the GEM constituents showed signs of diving, including Tong Huashun and Yin Zhijie held by Gu Junhao.
"It's going to dive, 2000 points is still under some pressure."
"Yes, the mood of the main board is also relatively low today. The ChiNext can hardly support it alone. The higher it goes, the deeper it will jump."
"The three major financial sectors also showed signs of diving, and Xibu Securities has started to decline again."
At this time, Liu Tingting's voice also sounded.
Gu Junhao quickly switched the interface to the securities sector. Xibu Securities has now fallen by more than 4%, and the overall securities sector has fallen by more than 2%. Banks and insurance companies are also accelerating their decline.
As the three major financial sectors fell again, the Shanghai Composite Index began to fall rapidly from 1:30 p.m. Half an hour later at 2 o'clock, the decline of the Shanghai Composite Index widened to 1.70%, and the stock index fell below 3,300 points to 3,279.56 points.
The ChiNext Index saw the biggest plunge within half an hour, hitting 2,000 points.
The stock index fell straight down from around 2004 points to the current 1974.16 points, a drop of 0.65%, a drop of as much as 1.5%.
The three major stock indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen began to dive within the last half hour of trading.
The three major financial sectors continued to lead the decline, and funds continued to flow out of these sectors.
At the end of the day's trading, the three major indexes all maintained a sharp decline. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.19%, breaking below 3,300 points to 3,263.05 points. The ChiNext Index closed at 1,961.74 points, down 1.27%.
A total of 6.32 billion yuan of funds flowed out of the Shanghai Stock Exchange today, while 5.355 billion yuan flowed out of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The ChiNext Index, which plunged sharply in the late trading, saw a net outflow of 834 million yuan, the least outflow among the three major stock indices.
Among the two markets, the securities, banking and insurance sectors saw a total outflow of more than 23 billion yuan.
The securities sector as a whole fell 3.51%, and the banking sector as a whole fell 3.41%; the declines of these two sectors ranked .
The overall outflow of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today exceeded 12 billion yuan, with the three major financial sectors experiencing a substantial outflow. The fear of capital in the broader market was clearly revealed, which also led to a very mediocre market trend in the next three days of this week.
The ChiNext, which saw an outflow of only 834 million yuan today, had a last-ditch rebound on Wednesday. The stock index rose 2.45% at one point and regained its footing at 2,000 points. However, it continued to decline in the following two days as the broader market adjusted.
By Friday, the ChiNext Index recorded its largest weekly drop of 3.15%.
During the week, the stock index hit a high of 2032.22 points and closed at 1951.41 points, an increase of 1.21% compared with last week.
In general, the performance of the ChiNext Index this week was pretty good, but in the process of switching between high and low on Monday, the performance of high-priced stocks was disappointing. Yinzhijie fell 11.14% in a week, and its share price fell below the 80 yuan mark again, closing at 79.53 yuan.
The fluctuation of the index at a high level and the sharp pullback of the financial sector have resulted in the index forming a certain effective breakthrough this week, but the market's profitability effect is not very good. The high-priced stocks have continued to pull back, and the rebound of the low-priced stocks cannot be sustained well.
After a week, all of Gu Junhao's holdings, except for Zhongguo CSR, whose merger was approved by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, continued to fall.
The stock with the biggest drop was Yinzhijie, while the stock with the smallest drop was Yellow River Securities.
Zhongguo CSR experienced unusual movement at 2:30 p.m. this Thursday, with the share price starting from 11.56 yuan, a drop of 2.45%, and then rising in a straight line.
Within the 10-minute rise, CSR's highest reported price increase was 13.04 points.
This performance amazed the market and attracted the attention of most investors.
Although CSR ultimately failed to close at 12.68 yuan on Thursday, the unusual movement within 10 minutes was enough to attract attention. The same was true for Beijing Railway, which had the same trend as CSR.
As expected, after the market closed, both CNR and CSR announced that their merger had been approved; obviously, the news had been leaked in advance.
After the announcement was issued, there was a chorus of criticism within the two major stock trading areas, and rumors of insider trading flooded the entire Internet.
By Friday of this week, CSR and CSR also unsurprisingly enjoyed another surge of 7.57%.
CSR's share price has returned to above 13 yuan, closing at 13.64 yuan, less than 8% away from its January high.
Judging from the trend, after nearly one and a half months of wide adjustments, CNR and CSR, whose merger was approved, have shown a trend of second wave breakthrough.
At the same time, CSR and CSR also released another suspension announcement .
The two companies will hold shareholders' meetings on March 9, which is next Monday.
On the day of the shareholders' meeting, the two companies will be suspended and trading will be stopped for one day.
"Perhaps the performance in the past two days has been too outrageous. It has become too obvious. The shareholders' meeting is also a trading day, so we have to suspend trading. Otherwise, we don't know how the stock will perform during the trading session."
The news of the suspension made Gu Junhao and others feel a little funny. What happened two days ago?
