Chapter 296 The signal released leads to a change in style
The end of the Spring Festival holiday means all kinds of farewells; children have to leave their parents, husbands have to leave their wives; migrant workers have to embark on a journey far away from their hometowns again.
As one of the groups with the highest attendance rate, Junshi Capital had an attendance rate of 90% on February 25, the seventh day of the first lunar month, which is quite low.
In order to ensure that everyone can arrive at work on time, the administrative department has designed a way to give out bonus envelopes. In addition to reimbursement of travel expenses, those who arrive at work on time will also receive a bonus envelope of one thousand yuan.
Except for those who really had something to do at home and couldn't leave, everyone arrived at work on time.
As in previous years, on the first trading day of the seventh day of the first lunar month, retail investors were still immersed in the New Year celebrations, and most industries had not yet officially returned to work; trading volumes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were sluggish, and the three major indexes did not fluctuate much throughout the day.
Gu Junhao, who went to work today, also did not pay much attention to the transaction itself. His main focus was on the performance of the peripheral markets during the holiday and some policy news.
This morning, Gu Junhao noticed that the Financial Times, which was released by the central bank, published two articles yesterday and today; the articles pointed out that monetary policy should maintain a moderate level of liquidity.
In the next stage, in order to cope with the possibility of deflation, the central bank will make timely and appropriate adjustments to traditional monetary tools such as the statutory reserve ratio and benchmark interest rate to maintain appropriate liquidity.
As a financial media directly managed by the central bank, such remarks were also interpreted by the market as an advance warning of future interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, raising expectations of continued monetary policy easing in the future.
The rise and fall of stock prices are directly related to the amount of currency in circulation in the market. No matter what kind of speculation on the future or expectations there is, all that is needed is the ability of funds to drive it.
As the central bank is likely to continue to maintain a large-scale monetary easing policy and the European debt crisis is temporarily under control, loose liquidity is undoubtedly a big boon to the stock market, especially the blue-chip sector.
As for the external markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to set new highs, while the S&P and Nasdaq fell slightly. The overall performance was relatively stable, and the impact on A-shares was relatively small.
The PMI index for February released today was better than market expectations, hitting a four-month high, and the manufacturing industry also improved slightly.
A series of factors, plus the stabilization of the financial sector; the market has entered a mild recovery period after the second bottoming out, and is still on an upward trend overall.
Both the data and the policies reflect the management's care for the stock market. It can also be seen from here that the management really hopes to create a slow bull market like the U.S. stock market.
No matter how the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets perform on the first day after the holiday, it cannot change the upward pattern of fluctuations. Before the trading volume increases, the trend of the two markets will still be moderate.
Due to the sluggish trading volume and the lack of active participation of retail investors, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both ended the first day after the holiday with a slight decline. Tonghuashun also had sluggish trading today, and its stock price opened low and fell throughout the day, with a decline of as much as 7.76% in reduced volume.
On the last trading day before the holiday, Tonghuashun's amplitude once exceeded 12%, and the stock price rose to 92.68 yuan at its highest, closing at 91.81 yuan at the end of the trading day. However, a big drop today once again pulled the stock price back to 84.69 yuan.
With a share price of nearly 100 yuan, retail investors' enthusiasm for participating is no longer high. Judging from Tonghuashun and some GEM stocks including Dongfang Fortune, they have been obsessed with high dividends and share transfers in recent years.
Not surprisingly, Tonghuashun, whose share price has been pushed up to around 100 yuan, will once again carry out high dividends and share transfers as it did last year after the annual report comes out, thereby lowering the share price for further speculation.
Judging from the stock conversion and dividend time of Tonghuashun in previous years, it is basically concentrated in the period of late April and mid-May. If nothing unexpected happens this year, it should be in this time period.
"From this perspective, this round of speculation should have lasted until the end of April and the beginning of May, which is basically before the end of the bull market. The stock conversion just happened to lower the stock price, allowing retail investors to take over."
After this analysis, Gu Junhao admired the main funds in these markets very much. The stock market crash will probably come around mid-June. Through the speculation of the previously expected stock conversion, Tong Huashun’s stock price still has nearly a month’s delivery time, which basically leaves retail investors at the highest position.
As popular as high bonus and share transfer have been in recent years, the expectations for Tonghuashun's bonus and share transfer are just as high. Dongfang Wealth, whose share price is only more than 40 yuan, has already announced a high bonus and share transfer plan, so the expectations for Tonghuashun's bonus and share transfer are still very high.
As the main in-market capital of Tonghuashun, it certainly was unaware of the stock market crash in June, but it must have had some knowledge of the risks under the influence of such large-scale leveraged funds. It is also highly likely that it could escape before the stock market crash in June.
As for how crazy the A-share market was in May and June, I believe that all investors who have experienced the stock market in 2015 know this. There is no problem at all for selling stocks. All kinds of junk stocks are being speculated, not to mention stocks with expected results like Tong Huashun.
The sense of smell of big funds is always much higher than that of ordinary investors, and the signals released by the central bank from the holiday to today will surely be used by some big funds again.
In a sense, the decline of both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today can be seen as the opening of a round of market cleansing before the New Year. Only during this market cleansing process can the main funds collect more chips and reduce costs through wave operations.
Today is the 25th. Since February only has 28 days and due to holidays, there are only fifteen actual trading days. After today's trading ends, February will be over with only two trading days.
On Thursday, February 26, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower, with the ChiNext opening at 1875.33 points. After trading officially began, the performance of the weighty sectors remained sluggish, while theme stocks were active.
After the opening of the market, CNR and CSR stocks fell rapidly, and the performance of the Chinese-character sector was sluggish. However, the securities sector, which has rebounded well recently, experienced adjustments in the two trading days before and after the Spring Festival, and remained in a low-level .
The ChiNext Index opened low and then surged upward. By 10 o'clock, the increase had exceeded 0.7% at one point. The stock index reached around 1891 points and once again launched an attack towards 1900 points.
At the same time, Zhongguo CSR and CSR, which has not yet changed its name, once fell by more than 6%, and CNR's decline reached the same number during the same period. As the recent weather vane of China-headed stocks, CSR and CSR are influencing the trend of the entire China-headed stocks.
In the past few trading days, when the share prices of CNR and CSR fell, people would follow suit with stocks with Chinese characters in their names. However, today, other stocks with Chinese characters in their names, such as Zhongguo Communications Construction Co., Ltd. and Zhongguo First Heavy Industries Co., Ltd., are no longer following the trend of CNR and CSR.
"Huh? Other stocks with Chinese characters in their names are not following suit, and brokerage firms haven't fallen much either. It looks like the decline is about to stop." Gu Junhao said to Wu Peng with a smile. Wu Peng had just reported the unusual movements of stocks with Chinese characters in their names.
Zhongguo Jiaojian's share price only fell slightly by less than 1% when CNR and CSR fell rapidly by nearly 6%. Its share price still maintained its closing price of 12 yuan before the holiday, reaching a low of 12.05 yuan. At this time, the share price remained fluctuating around 12.10 yuan.
Today was the first time that Gu Junhao appeared in the trading room after the Chinese New Year. Not only the company's employees, but Gu Junhao himself did not go to work yesterday. In his two lifetimes, Gu Junhao has never gone to work after the seventh day of the Chinese New Year.
When I was working at Deye Technology, factory-type companies generally started work on the 8th or even the 10th day of the first lunar month; some workshop employees who worked far away would not officially start work until after the Lantern Festival.
Ordinary industrial workers have to work under high intensity, with low wages and insufficient rest. They only have the Chinese New Year holiday to look forward to. This is one of the reasons why new migrant workers would rather deliver food or work as couriers than work in factories.
"Yes, other stocks in the China-headed sector are no longer following suit, and the large financial sector has remained relatively stable. It feels like the weighting has stopped falling." Wu Peng also echoed Gu Junhao's words.
"However, the incremental funds are still limited. In the case of a rebound in weights, small and medium-sized start-ups may fall again." Cao Wenxun also reminded that today's trading volume is still relatively small.
"Yes, there is such a risk. There are only a few days left for trading after the Chinese New Year, and many people haven't finished their New Year holidays yet. Most of the funds are in the market. The probability of both large-cap stocks and small and medium-sized start-ups rising together is definitely not high." Gu Junhao also nodded.
With the full integration of the two senior traders into the team, the situations where Gu Junhao had to rely on himself to grasp the intraday movements in the past are becoming less and less frequent. Even if Gu Junhao appears in the trading room, it is much easier for him to watch the market.
At 10:15, Zhongguo Jiaojian, which had been fluctuating around the price of 12.10 yuan, moved abnormally and the trading volume began to gradually increase. At 10:19, CSR and CSR bottomed out and rebounded, and Zhongguo Jiaojian also surged rapidly at the same time.
"There have been unusual movements. The heavyweight stocks with Chinese characters in their names have been rising collectively. The brokerage sector is also doing well, and has reached the yellow moving average." Gu Junhao said to everyone.
By the way, Gu Junhao took a look at the trend of the SME Index and the ChiNext Index . As expected, the market started to fall at the moment when the heavyweight stocks moved abnormally, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets once again entered into a strange market situation.
Five minutes later, Zhongguo Jiaojian was the first to turn positive, with its share price at 12.42 yuan, up 0.73%. The decline of CSR also pulled back below 2%, and it was still the fastest growing stock. For short-term large funds, they still prefer stocks with higher expected certainty, such as CSR and CSR.
At 10:30, CNR and CSR turned positive again, Zhongguo Communications Construction rose by nearly 2%, and Zhongguo First Heavy Industries also rose by more than 1% during the same period. The securities sector maintained a narrow range of fluctuations around the flat point, and the Shanghai Composite Index's decline narrowed again to within 0.5%.
The ChiNext Index has plunged from above 1891 points to around 1879 points; at 10:50, the securities sector turned positive and the Shanghai Composite Index turned positive smoothly, but the ChiNext Index's plunge is still continuing and the stock index fell to around the flat point.
In less than an hour, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, which had no significant incremental funds, began to switch their intraday styles due to changes in the game of on-site funds.
The heavyweight stocks led by those with Chinese characters in their names rebounded brilliantly, among which Zhongguo Communications Construction performed exceptionally well. By 11 o'clock, Zhongguo Communications Construction's share price exceeded 13 yuan, closing at 12.12 yuan, a surge of 6.41%, surpassing the popularity of the southern and northern legendary cars for a while.
At 11 o'clock, the securities sector, which had successfully turned red, began to gain momentum. Xibu Securities, which had been in the forefront of the market before the New Year, once again became the leader of the rebound. The share price rose rapidly. At 11:15, Xibu Securities rose by more than 4% and the share price was 35.18 yuan.
The stock price of Zhongguo Jiaojian, which performed well, hit the upper limit at 11:15. After 10 minutes of fluctuation, at 11:25, the trading volume of 266 million funds once again pushed the stock price of Zhongguo Jiaojian to the upper limit.
During the same period, a large amount of funds came out to successfully keep the stock price above the daily limit. At the midday close, Zhongguo Jiaojian's share price was 13.56 yuan, up 9.98%. The trading volume in the morning exceeded 1.2 billion yuan.
Xibu Securities, which saw an abnormal rise, closed at 36.80 yuan at noon, with its share price rising by 9%. In the last few minutes before the morning closing, Xibu Securities also briefly touched the upper limit price, with an amazing performance.
During this period, small and medium-sized start-ups continued to dive as their styles switched. The ChiNext Index fell 10.6% at noon, and the intraday dive was close to 2%. Tonghuashun dived more than 4% during this period, and its share price closed at 84.09 yuan, falling another 4.83% after yesterday.
As for Yinzhijie, which had two consecutive daily limit increases before the New Year, after creating the highest price of 99.90 yuan yesterday, it began to plunge sharply throughout the day; today's midday closing also fell again by 5.38%, and the stock price has fallen to 83.40 yuan.
With such a high stock price, Yinzhijie will, as expected, implement a high dividend and bonus plan like Dongfang Wealth. These three GEM constituent stocks all implemented high dividend and bonus plans last year, and I believe this year will be no exception.
Regarding the high dividends and share transfers in recent years, major listed companies can be said to have acted unscrupulously, and the market speculation was too crazy, which also led to the situation where this concept was close to being banned by the regulatory authorities.
However, for some high-quality stocks , if the share capital is still not very high after the bonus and transfer, there is still some room for rights filling. As for how to distinguish them, it depends on the individual.
When the market is not good, keep an eye on some stocks with excellent performance and bonus shares. After they create a second new low, you can also slowly rebound and make some profits in the process of rights filling.
In the afternoon trading, the market continued to rebound. Zhongguo Jiaojian briefly opened the board in the afternoon trading, but it still reported the upper limit price throughout the day, and the closing price was relatively strong.
The share price of Xibu Securities has been fluctuating at a high level of more than 8% in the afternoon. At 14:15 in the afternoon , the share price successfully hit the daily limit at 37.14 yuan. The securities firms that hit the daily limit today are basically concentrated in small securities firms.
The current growth rate of large brokerages such as Yellow River Securities remains at around 5%. As for why small brokerages, led by Xibu Securities, are the most affected, Gu Junhao believes that it is due to the lack of incremental funds in the OTC market.
Without a large amount of incremental funds, if you want to boost the sentiment of the sector, you can only pull up some stocks in the same sector that were popular in the early stage and have relatively small market caps and relatively light locked-in stocks.
The style switch did not lead to the weakening of the ChiNext . In the afternoon trading, the ChiNext index fell to a low of 1847.73 points. When it fell by more than 1.5%, it began to rebound rapidly. By 13:30, the decline of the ChiNext had narrowed to 0.66%.
Yinzhijie and Tonghuashun, which had fallen sharply in the morning, also rose rapidly in the same period, and Yinzhijie even turned positive at one point.
"It seems that in the short term, the funds in the market do not intend to give up small and medium-sized enterprises. The decline today is more likely to be the effect of shaking out the market." Gu Junhao said with a smile.
Judging from the current trend of the ChiNext Index, which is blooming with six lines and accelerating upward, it should be impossible to fall below the weekly five-day line, that is, the 1,800 point level, at least before June.
"Maybe today is the bottom area of the ChiNext after the Spring Festival. It will bottom out once more at most." Gu Junhao stared at the rapidly rising ChiNext index, switched the mouse and analyzed its trend.
Strong stocks such as Tonghuashun and Yinzhijie began to rebound after a sharp drop for one and a half trading days; the refusal of strong stocks to fall sharply is also a manifestation of the continued strength of small and medium-sized enterprises.
The rebound of the ChiNext in the afternoon continued until the end of the trading day; throughout the day, the Shanghai Composite Index benefited from the rebound of its weight and rose by 2.15%. The stock index closed at 3298.36 points. It is only a matter of time before it breaks through 3300 points.
However, the performance of the ChiNext was not inferior to that of the Shanghai Composite Index. In the afternoon, the ChiNext Index rebounded by nearly 2%. The index finally achieved an increase of 0.19%, with a red cross star trend, and the ChiNext completed the intraday adjustment.
On Friday, the last trading day of this month, the style of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets once again switched to the small and medium-sized enterprises sector.
The financial and Chinese-capped sectors, which surged yesterday, slowed down their gains today. Market speculative funds once again attacked small and medium-sized start-up stocks. Newly listed stocks became the leading sector of the rebound, and environmental protection stocks also moved today.
The Shanghai Composite Index, which surged yesterday, slowed down its gains today, but it was still relatively easy for it to break through the 3,300 point mark; and the performance of the ChiNext was equally outstanding in this regard, opening high and ending high and easily breaking through the 1,900 point mark at 10:30.
After the Spring Festival, except for the first trading day when trading was dismal, as ordinary investors officially returned to work and gradually joined in trading, trading in the two markets yesterday and today has slowly become active.
The number of posts in major stock trading areas also began to increase. At the end of the day's trading, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.36% and closed at 3310.30 points. During the three-day trading, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95%. The recovery of the securities sector gave investors in both cities hope to re-enter the market.
The ChiNext Index fluctuated upward today, forming a bare-headed and barefoot medium-sized Yang trend, surging 2.53% on the day and closing at 1928.04 points. In three days of trading, the ChiNext Index continued to set a new historical high with a 1.78% increase.
After today's trading ends, trading in February also ends. After two days of sudden performance, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets achieved unprecedented breakthroughs in the index when most ordinary investors were still in the New Year period.
In a blink of an eye, retail investors once again fell behind the trend.
