Chapter 261: Wargame Simulation
Before I knew it, it was Sunday.
Li Yuan didn't go out these two days, after all, his parents were looking for him.
Ever since they found out about Zhou Ranran's situation, their mentality has been problematic.
Li Wanhe didn't want to go back at all, so he made an excuse to go out for a walk, but in fact he went to the hospital to see his children.
He couldn't show it yet, so he could only continue to make excuses, saying that he was just chatting with Zhou Youfang.
After all, he is his grandson, it is impossible for him to say that he doesn't care.
Zhou Juan can only take care of Jiang Yiling at home most of the time. Both of them are her dearest loved ones, and she has no choice.
Of course, the most important thing is to call him back. The old couple probably have already discussed some solutions, but they just can't see him.
He woke up in the afternoon and hadn't prepared to eat yet, but Chen Jie said, "A guest will come to our house later, and it's not convenient for me to stay here... um... so we'll have dinner later."
Li Yuan, who had just woken up, was not hungry, but he was very curious. Who was coming that even Chen Jie had to avoid?
Isn’t she from Tang Jianjun’s side?
"Who's coming?"
"You'll know in a moment. It will take at most ten minutes. I'll make you a cup of soy milk first. I'll be back in an hour or two."
Li Yuan frowned and hummed softly.
The identity of the person who came must be extremely special, and Chen Jie couldn't stay here.
Maybe even higher than Tang Jianjun...
A few minutes later, Chen Jie received a call, brought the soy milk to Li Yuan, and left.
A few minutes later, the door opened and Li Yuan saw a little old man and two people walking in from outside.
However, the two sides did not greet each other immediately. The people brought by the other party checked the entire room and used some instruments.
The inspection lasted for a full ten minutes, until Li Yuan finished drinking the soy milk and the two people in charge of the inspection left, and then the two sides officially spoke the first sentence.
Li Yuan said, "I never thought that you would come here in person."
"I've always wanted to meet you, but it's hard to find an opportunity. I happened to be passing through Jiangzhou this time, so the timing was just right..."
Li Yuan said softly, "Whoever makes the rules is just a coincidence. I am young and hot-tempered. If I say something unpleasant, please don't take it to heart. Sooner or later, I will be beaten by society and gradually mature."
Although there were some unexpected things today, they were still within reason.
There are not many people that Chen Jie can avoid. You can guess that if you think about it carefully.
The little old man in front of you is the real God of Wealth.
The amount of money handled every year starts at tens of trillions.
After sitting down, the God of Wealth smiled and said, "Look at what you said. I'm not here to show off to you. What's there to hear? But what you just said is very good. Only those who make the rules can talk about coincidences. If you can't make the rules, you can only accept it. I think you are the kind of person who can make the rules..."
Li Yuan still doesn't quite understand what the God of Wealth wants to do with him.
He is not a member of the system, and with the stain on him, he will never be able to enter in his lifetime.
"You overestimate me. I can only play with individual stocks and compete with a few people. I am not qualified for the real game field."
To put it bluntly, when playing stocks, you only need to figure out what others are thinking in the next second, but when competing against major powers, you often have to think about what others will do in the next few years.
It is basically impossible to guess it correctly, but even if you only guess a general direction, it will be very scary.
After all, in the game between major powers, what matters is not the gains and losses of tens or hundreds of billions of dollars, but more things that cannot be measured in money.
The God of Wealth smiled and said, "It's nothing, it's all the same. How do you say it? If you don't fight for the day, how can you count the years?"
Li Yuan: “???, is there such a sentence?”
"Haha, that's about the same idea. You've been making waves in the U.S. stock market, so you must have a good understanding of their system. Can I ask what you think of the U.S. stock market?"
Li Yuan: "There is nothing special about the U.S. stock market. It is just a qualified reservoir. This is also its biggest advantage. After all, the so-called financial attribute is to find ways to reasonably leverage funds."
The God of Wealth nodded and continued to ask, "So are you optimistic about the US stock market?"
"I don't have any optimism or pessimism. The market situation has little to do with me."
"Hmm? If the market is better, won't you earn more?"
"When the market is bad, you can earn more. Generally speaking, I am most afraid of the market being neither good nor bad, and similarly, my opponents are also..."
The God of Wealth was stunned for a moment. What Li Yuan said was very clear.
That is, the US stock market will not continue like this, it will either fall or rise.
The current market situation is not considered a decline, it is just a normal pullback.
The U.S. stock market wants to fall by 30 or 40 points. Unless there is a systemic risk, even if the interest rate is raised again, it will at hover around 10 or 20 points.
15 years ago, the US stock market was in a cycle of interest rate hikes. There were pullbacks and gaps, but the overall trend was not downward.
Except for that time in 2008.
What Li Yuan meant was probably that the U.S. stock market will rise.
What is the logic behind the rise?
I can't think of anything else except flooding the market with US dollars.
Global deflation has forced the United States to launch a trade war in an effort to bring manufacturing back to the country.
After the interest rate hikes in previous years, the U.S. dollar has been falling in the past two years, but liquidity has never recovered. They are eager to make the dollar flow, and manufacturing is the biggest direction.
The domestic manufacturing industry in the United States has almost disappeared in recent years.
At first they only wanted to move low-end manufacturing to developing countries, but as time went on they discovered that finance made money faster and the service industry was better.
Then the mid-to-high-end manufacturing industry also began to slowly disappear.
In recent years, their high-end manufacturing industry has been supported by only a few dozen companies. Even so, those high-end manufacturing industries are still being impacted by China's manufacturing industry.
Their two experienced brands, Baobaojiaobenji and Nanbang, are unable to inject fresh blood due to the decline in their market share in mid-to-high-end manufacturing.
So that's how their Entity List came out.
The A-share bears were unbearable to watch, and the trading volume of the two markets once fell to 400 billion.
It's already May and there's no sign of improvement.
The God of Wealth sighed and said, "If the US dollar is released, global assets will be in trouble again... We can either follow the release of money or endure the pain brought by currency appreciation..."
"Um."
Li Yuan did not express his opinion. This matter had nothing to do with him.
But what the God of Wealth said is right, the loosening of the US dollar is not good news for China.
Then release the water? Since there are no reservoirs in China, where will the released water go?
Continue infrastructure? Real estate?
House prices can no longer rise any further. If they continue to rise, once the bubble is burst, it will instantly trigger systemic risks.
Even now, we have reached a very delicate node, and many first-tier cities have begun to restrict purchases and sales...
Currency appreciation? That’s even worse!
China is the world's number one manufacturing country. If the currency appreciates, it will be a black swan event for product exports. At that time, exports will shrink and the country may even fall into a national economic depression.
The lesson we learned from the past is the chicken in the basin and the Plaza Accord 30 years ago...
The content of the Plaza Accord was to require their currency to appreciate, and at the beginning, the people of Taiwan thought this was good news and that the money in their hands would be more valuable.
But after a few months, they found that their products could not be sold.
After the currency appreciates, others who want to import their products will have to pay a higher cost, which means that imported products have become more expensive.
If it is too expensive, you will lose market share.
Having lost the market, the company naturally had to lay off employees. Coupled with the initial real estate bubble, the layoffs eventually burst the real estate bubble, triggering systemic financial risks.
To put it bluntly, they are the experience babies of the Beautiful Country, and the Beautiful Country has plenty of ways to harvest them.
The God of Wealth was somewhat disappointed when he saw Li Yuan's attitude.
He said, "Li Yuan, today we are the only two people, let's talk freely... or let's assume that the US dollar is released, what should the country do to stabilize the basic situation, why don't we do a war game?"
Li Yuan said with a dark face: "You overestimate me. I don't know what war game simulation is. I can't even play chess."
Is it appropriate to ask him, an outsider, about this kind of thing?
If any problems arise in the future, people might think he is a traitor.
He didn't want to discuss any confidential issues.
"It's actually very simple. It's nothing more than simulating a scenario. How about I start?"
"I haven't eaten yet."
"To make a long story short, I'll treat you to a meal later."
"No, no, no, that's not appropriate. I'm naturally strong-willed, and I can't let others think that I achieved my current success because of connections, right?"
"???"
This kid is too sensitive.
"So you're just a stubborn kid, right? I'm just telling you the truth. I came here today just to take something away! If you don't hand over some solid stuff, this matter will not be over!"
When Li Yuan heard this, he took out his phone and said, "Then I'll start recording."
"Why are you recording?"
"Let me distance myself from this matter first. This matter has nothing to do with me. I was just forced to answer some questions."
For Li Yuan, chatting is definitely beneficial, at least it will make the road ahead much smoother.
It’s just that the risk issue must be considered. If it makes him take risks, I would rather not say it.
The old man narrowed his eyes and did not try to stop Li Yuan.
He wanted to see what Li Yuan had to say.
They have not been without preparation for the US dollar interest rate hike. They even started planning it five years ago and have already implemented the first step.
If Li Yuan could see through this step, he would be capable.
After Li Yuan was done, he said, "Let's just assume that the US dollar is released. Is it better for us to appreciate our currency or follow the release of money?"
"Of course, we have to do both at the same time, because no matter how much we release money, we can never surpass the U.S. dollar. It is a global currency, and there is enough market to accommodate it even if we release 10 trillion or 20 trillion. If we release tens of trillions, a scallion will have to sell for 50 yuan tomorrow."
Loosening money will inevitably lead to inflation. There is more money in the market, the products are fixed, and the demand is fixed.
To absorb this money, everything will go up in price.
When the time comes, go to the second floor of the bath center and order a 1999 package, which is only enough for a large pool. Want to go to a private room? No way.
After all, a lot of people are willing to pay 19,999 for a private room.
Invisibly, the currency will depreciate.
It is still a significant depreciation.
If something happens again, the money will be no different from waste paper.
By then, prices will be very chaotic and all problems will erupt.
Li Yuan was not being polite when he spoke. Since the other party asked him this kind of question, he was destined to get only such a response.
It's like asking a math professor what 1+1 equals.
The God of Wealth didn't care, but continued to ask: "What's the meaning of two-pronged approach? How should we grasp the balance between them?"
"I shouldn't be thinking about this issue."
"Then let's not talk about appreciation, which is a little simpler and not complicated to operate. But releasing water is not that easy. Where should the water flow? How about flowing into real estate? After all, real estate is the only thing in the country that can store water."
Li Yuan: "There is no point in investing in real estate. Those who should have boarded the real estate train have already boarded. Those who shouldn't have boarded will never get any dividends in their lifetime, and will instead become the object of exploitation."
"Where should that go? The stock market?"
"If you want to flow into the stock market, you should kick out some of the foreign capital first. Also, you need to rectify the entire industry, otherwise the majority will be eaten up by foreign funds. Because those domestic financial institutions are dead lickers, useless, they only know how to follow others and cheer for them. When others are full and satisfied, they will be very satisfied if they are given a piece of bone."
Li Yuan's words were sharper than before.
But the meaning is very clear. If the stock market wants to serve as a reservoir, it must first kick out those who have unsteady positions to avoid bad things happening halfway.
The God of Wealth said: "Even so, in fact, most people cannot enjoy the dividends of flooding the stock market."
Li Yuan said: "This is another problem. We need to kick out the termites first before we can discuss distribution."
"If what you said today gets out, I'm afraid you won't have a place to stay in the country. So don't record it. I'm afraid you might accidentally spread it."
Li Yuan smiled and said, "It's okay. If you can't find the content in China, just go abroad. You can't find a meal anywhere."
“…”
He discovered that Li Yuan was just as he said at the beginning, his words were unpleasant to the ears.
But he didn't come here to hear any good words this time.
So he continued to ask: "If the stock market is flooded with money, do you know what will happen to the property market?"
"Well, the plunge..."
Once the stock market starts to rise and a long-term trend emerges, some of the funds in the real estate market will flow in, causing the real estate market to collapse.
But Li Yuan then said, "Aren't there purchase and sales restrictions already in place? Just lock yourself in. But the restrictions are not very strong yet. It would be best to just push them all the way down, so that new house prices are inverted and second-hand houses can't be sold. It doesn't matter if only a few units are sold. As long as there are no sales, the funds will have to stay in the property market. Isn't this something you've planned a long time ago? It started a few years ago... why are you asking this?"
