Chapter 171: Ice and Fire
Since late July, there has been a significant increase in various types of off-market information, whether it is macroeconomic or individual stocks, all kinds of news have been released intensively.
Late night news: the central bank suspended positive repurchases, which greatly alleviated the impact of new share subscriptions, the sharp drop in funds in the open market, and foreign exchange deposits of financial institutions, and to a certain extent helped market liquidity.
That night, affected by the news, the Shanghai interbank offered rate fell from 6.5 basis points to 3.253 basis points. By Tuesday's trading time, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded strongly, with both markets rising.
The Shanghai Composite Index surged 1.02% to close at 2075.48 points, and trading volume once again exceeded the 100 billion mark. Today's surge was also the first time that the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the dense medium- and short-term moving average area after several months of volatility.
The ChiNext Index surged 1.71% to close at 1329.35 points , returning to above the annual line. However, compared with the breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index, the ChiNext Index is still suppressed by the 60-day line, and the trading volume is only 21.15 billion yuan, which is still far from the breakthrough volume.
Today is a joyous day for stock investors. Today, the weight of stocks has been raised, sector themes have generally risen, and individual stocks in the two markets have hit the daily limit in large areas. However, the performance of Junshi Fund's four holdings today was average, which was in sharp contrast to the hot market .
Among the four holdings, only Yinzhijie can be considered to have a big rise. Yinzhijie surged 4.79% today, and its share price returned to above 17 yuan, closing at 17.07 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 4 million yuan compared with yesterday.
As for the other three holdings, they only closed in the green today, and Xibu Securities only rose by 0.04 yuan, but the trading volume reached a huge amount of 196 million.
Wan'an Technology closed at the same price, and Dongfang Wealth failed to outperform the market. Its trading volume fell below the 200 million yuan mark for the first time, with a total daily trading volume of 196 million yuan, the same as Xibu Securities.
The three holdings underperformed the market. For such a hot market today, Xu Jianqing and the other two were very concerned about their mentality. On the one hand, the market was rising sharply, and on the other hand, their own positions did not perform well.
It is said that watching others make money is more painful than losing money yourself. For most retail investors, if their own holdings do not perform well when the market is booming, they may change stocks and abandon their previous beliefs in holdings.
Gu Junhao has experienced such moments more than once. Although Xu Jianqing and the other two have no right to exchange shares, they must be having a hard time today. However, Gu Junhao still will not give any instructions to them.
After yesterday's closing, the three of them came to the office and wanted to report on the day's work, but Gu Junhao interrupted them and said that everything would have to wait until the end of the month to see the results. He also said that unless there was a special need, he would not go to the trading room on the remaining trading days of this month.
This feeling made the three of them a little dazed. There are only 20 trading days in a month, and there are nine trading days including that day. The boss will not appear in the trading room for nearly half of the trading time, which really surprised the three of them.
…
"I always feel that the stocks chosen by Lao Xuan are a little special. Have you noticed?" After the market closed at three o'clock, Xu Jianqing said in the trading room, staring at the computer screen.
"What's special? What did you find?" Wang Ruoyu continued.
"From the boss's public holdings of Wangsu Technology, Dafu Technology and Tonghuashun, as well as the stocks we currently hold; during the period of his holdings, it seemed that he rarely followed the index." These words were not said by Xu Jianqing, but by Liu Tingting who took over the topic.
"Yes, the market rose so much today, and the Shanghai Composite Index even broke through. As a result, only my holdings performed well. Look at Wan'an Technology. It closed at a flat price after playing for a whole day. It was a waste of time.
There is also Tong Hua Shun, which the boss holds. Although it outperformed the index today, its performance is also average. As for Yin Zhi Jie, I am not optimistic about its performance tomorrow. "
After a pause, Xu Jianqing continued, "Yinzhijie's stock price rose more sharply today than yesterday, and the stock price has returned to 17 yuan, but the trading volume is lower than yesterday."
"Indeed, Wan'an Technology has hit the daily limit in the past and has good performance. When this kind of theme exploded today, it should have attracted the attention of funds. As a result, its daily volatility does not exceed 2%, and the volume is shrinking, making it difficult to trade." Wang Ruoyu nodded.
"Your Dongfang Wealth is not much better. Today, only Tingting's Xibu Securities has increased in volume, but the volatility of this stock is even smaller than that of Wan'an Technology, so there is not much room for growth."
"So you haven't told me you've discovered these things yet, what does that mean?" Liu Tingting was rather depressed today, as she had no chance to sell stocks the entire day. Xibu Securities fluctuated by 1.7% throughout the day, with the highest being 11.26 yuan and the lowest being 11.07 yuan, with a fluctuation of less than 0.2 yuan.
If you want to do T under such conditions, it is very difficult. If you do too little, it may not be enough to pay the transaction fee. If you do too much, you are afraid of selling the chips. Then you can only watch and not trade.
"Don't be impatient, take your time. What I mean is that these stocks that Lao Xuan selected may seem disorganized, including mobile Internet, non-bank financial, securities, and auto parts, but when summarized together, they are all small and medium-sized growth stocks.
There are stocks with performance, concepts and expectations; it is impossible that there is no capital speculation, but why is there no reaction when the market is booming?
If only one stock was like this, it could be said to be a trend problem, but all five stocks, including Tonghuashun, were like this. In addition, I also looked at some other stocks with good performance, and their trends were similar. "
"You mean, the big funds in the market don't think there will be a big rise here, so they all chose to wait and see today?" Wang Ruoyu touched his chin thoughtfully.
The rise of stocks is inseparable from trading volume. Although there are quite a few small and medium-sized growth-themed stocks that hit the daily limit today, there are quite a few stocks with shrinking trading volume, including those operated by people like me. The ChiNext only traded more than 20 billion yuan throughout the day.
Whether the rebound with reduced volume can continue depends entirely on whether the main funds will enter the market in the future. Perhaps it is true as Xu Jianqing said that today's surge is just a short-term rebound affected by the good news from the central bank last night.
"What Xiao Xu said is indeed possible. If that's the case, what do you think we should do?" Liu Tingting said.
"Hehe, I have a bold idea. Tingting, forget about you, but does Lao Wang dare to do it with us?" Xu Jianqing looked at Wang Ruoyu and said.
"What's the idea? Why should I let it go?" Liu Tingting asked puzzledly.
"Tell me about it." Wang Ruoyu also said with a smile. It seemed that this guy wanted to cause trouble again.
"It's like this, Tingting, your stocks don't belong to the GEM, and the trading volume has also increased today, so don't get involved. Lao Wang and I own stocks that are components of the GEM, and you've seen the trend and pressure of the GEM index.
I don’t think today’s volume can be broken, and the day after tomorrow is Thursday, which is a statutory decline day. So if Dongfang Fortune and Yinzhijie still move against the ChiNext Index tomorrow, we will sell part of our positions based on the volume and buy them back on Thursday afternoon. What do you think?”
Sell part of the position and take it back the next day; Xu Jianqing's idea was bold. You know, the only instruction Gu Junhao gave to the three was not to lose the chips.
"Are you crazy? Didn't the boss tell us not to lose the chips? What will you do if you can't get them back?" Liu Tingting looked at Xu Jianqing in amazement.
Not to mention that Xu Jianqing's suggestion would stop her from participating, she wouldn't even dare to get her to participate. With the volatility of Xibu Securities, it would take a lot of effort to sell it and buy it back.
"So your judgment is that the ChiNext will not be able to break through the 60-day line tomorrow or it will be a false breakthrough?" Wang Ruoyu asked, going straight to the heart of the matter.
"Yes, I've thought about it. Since we can't break through, it will definitely pull back. At this time, we can sell part of our positions and do a relatively large T."
"What if I can't take it back, or I need to chase it at a higher price, I will lose a lot of chips. It won't just be a simple matter of deducting performance." Although Liu Tingting agreed with Xu Jianqing's views on the ChiNext Index, she still felt that it was too risky.
“I have thought about this problem. I currently have a free quota of 2 million. The total market value of my current positions is less than 14 million, and it is impossible for me to sell all my positions.
So even if I make a wrong judgment, the loss is unlikely to be more than 10%, which is 1.4 million yuan. I will use this money to cover my position. I will not do short-term trading in the future. Lao Wang, if you want to work with me, if something unexpected happens, I will give you half of the 2 million yuan to make up for it."
According to Xu Jianqing's calculations, Yinzhijie's current trading volume has increased, with an average daily trading volume of more than 70 million yuan. It would not be a big problem for him to make a transaction of 3 million yuan in one day.
If you are bolder, you can even invest around 7 million. Based on the maximum calculation of 7 million, if you find that it is not right, you can buy it back immediately. The maximum probability is a loss of 700,000 yuan. The risk can be completely controlled.
Xu Jianqing is bold, but he does not act rashly. The boss often says that risks should be proportional to returns. When the returns outweigh the risks, you can do it yourself. It’s really that Yin Zhijie’s trading volume is too small, otherwise he would really dare to go all in for a big T.
As long as I explain to my boss the specific ideas of this operation and the stop-loss point when I make a mistake, I believe he will understand. As for failing the business due to mistakes, it is already the end of the month and it is the last assessment. If I fail, I fail. I don't have to worry about competing with the cleaning lady for my job.
After listening to Xu Jianqing's analysis, Wang Ruoyu did not answer immediately. Instead, he pondered for a while, then returned to his workstation and called up the trend charts of the three major indexes and Dongfang Wealth.
Wang Ruoyu's views on the ChiNext Index are similar to Xu Jianqing's, but when it comes to individual stocks, more specific analysis is needed; Dongfang Wealth's performance is the worst compared to the index and Yinzhijie.
Today, Dongfang Wealth just barely closed above the 5-day line, with the 10-day line and 20-day line above it. The trading volume has shrunk to less than 200 million, and the downward trend is still very obvious.
