Volume 8 Final Chapter Chapter 1181 Conspiracy in the Shadow
The Sichun that Yi Qianxi mentioned soon showed up. Nan Yi sent someone to find Xie Yongchuan to sign a contract, and he went to an investment salon, where several wealthy people who mainly engaged in investment sat together drinking and talking about investment topics.
Luo Sensen is the VIP. He was the one who gave Nan Yi the invitation letter, but he came with Ruan Mei.
In a villa at the foot of Xiangshan Mountain, Nan Yi followed Ruan Mei into the yard, took a glass of champagne from the waiter's tray, raised the glass and looked around, and immediately looked down on the salon in front of him.
He saw several faces he had seen on TV, female celebrities, but he couldn't figure out what level they were. The only one he could name directly was Liu Andy, and he had to think for a while to name the others, or he couldn't think of them at all.
"Are you sure this is an investment salon?" Nan Yi tilted his head and asked Ruan Mei.
Ruan Mei turned her head and replied, "The entertainment industry is a hot investment area right now, and young people also like to have fun, so it's not surprising to see a few female stars here."
"I think I'm out of date. You stand here and I'll go to the side and be invisible."
"I'll leave at twelve."
"knew."
Nan Yi responded and stood in the corner with the cup in hand. He just wanted to come over to listen to what investments everyone was paying attention to, and he had no interest in meeting any strangers.
But it was obvious that things would not develop as he hoped. Not long after he stood there, someone noticed him. And not just one person, but Liu Wendi and Che Xi who had just arrived.
Che Xi did not come alone, she was Li Haixin's female companion.
After their last accidental encounter, Li Haixin launched a fierce attack on Che Xi, showing off his muscles, sending flowers, and having candlelight dinners. Faced with the pursuit of a wealthy bachelor, Che Xi persisted for a short while before her heart was moved.
There's no way, putting aside the fact that he's a little fat and a little ugly, Li Haixin has everything going for him.
Li Haixin is just 26 years old this year, but he has been in charge of Zhaoji Steel for four years. When Li's father died unexpectedly, Li Haixin dropped out of school and returned to take on the task. Although he is just a young boy, he has great skills. In less than three months, he settled the internal struggles and concentrated on production and market development.
In four years, Li Haixin managed Zhaoji Steel successfully, even better than his father's business. It's a pity that the steel industry is too cyclical. When supply is tight, buyers are begging to buy, but when supply is cold, prices plummet.
In the second half of 2005, the price of steel started from 4,800 yuan per ton and gradually declined to 2,000 yuan per ton in 2006. This price has fallen below the cost price, but steel is a very special thing. Unless you plan to shut down, you cannot easily stop production. So even though the price is not good, you can only bite the bullet and continue production. You lose money on every ton sold, and just keep going.
2006 was a very difficult year for steel companies. Eleven out of ten suffered losses. Even workers in state-owned steel mills faced a 20% pay cut. Surprisingly, Zhaoji Steel's wages did not fall, but increased instead. In the words of Li Haixin, "If you are not hardworking, you are not a Zhaoji person. If you are not rich and happy, who would be a Zhaoji person?"
It can be said that Li Haixin is responsible and capable, but the environment did not give him a good period to adapt. Since the beginning of this year, the steel market has not improved. After analysis, Li Haixin believes that this wave of steel decline will continue for a few years. He was forced to do something and had no interest in steel, so he began to think about quitting.
Li Haixin didn't want to play anymore, he really didn't want to play anymore. Steel was too boring. In profitable years, he was chased for debts every now and then. When the market was bad, it was worse. The debts that were due this year would not be repaid on time. In order to escape and find another way out, he came to Beijing and devoted himself to his favorite financial industry.
It's no wonder that Li Haixin has a talent for finance. He started investing in 2004. Up to now, he has made nearly 3 billion in book profits. This is the basis for him to find another way out, and it is also his capital to squander.
What's the point of making money? Isn't it to spend it? When he arrived in Beijing, Li Haixin shed the disguise of a young and steady industrialist, and turned to financial investment tycoon. He ordered a Rolls-Royce and a private jet, and partied every night in clubs and nightclubs, living a very happy life.
Now, he is about to marry the beauty again, he is so proud. Who wants to work in that crappy steel mill? He doesn't want to work there anyway. Not only does he not make money, but he also has to work hard. How can it be as satisfying as financial investment? He sows a grain of wheat in the autumn and harvests a field of sliced noodles in early summer next year.
When Nan Yi and Che Xi who was looking at him met each other's eyes, he caught a glimpse of the smug look on Li Haixin's face out of the corner of his eye and nodded at Che Xi. He then looked at Liu Andi who had been sizing him up for a long time, and seeing a thoughtful and uncertain look in the other's eyes, he opened his mouth and clearly made the shape of "paying money".
Seeing this, Liu Andi suddenly realized what was going on. He said something to Wang Qingqiu beside him and walked towards Nan Yi.
"Hello."
"Hello, Miss Liu."
"I'm so sorry about what happened last time. I broke your headlight. Please leave me your phone number and I'll pay you next time."
After Liu Andi sobered up from the alcohol last time, she went to get her car repaired. During the conversation with the mechanic, she recalled the details of that night bit by bit. After analyzing the glass fragments extracted from the front of her car by the mechanic, she found that she did not hit an ordinary headlight. She didn't know the price, but it was definitely not cheap.
Meeting him here again today, the two things confirmed each other, which was enough to prove that he was not an ordinary person. She could only consider herself unlucky.
"Ms. Liu, the incident has passed. There is no need to mention it again. Let's just pretend that nothing unpleasant happened."
The total cost of custom-made products, mailing, lost wages and other miscellaneous expenses is at least tens of millions, and it's Meizi, so how could Nan Yi let it go so easily? He must find a way to get the money back, and he will have to pay the late payment fee.
Liu Andy hesitated and said, "Isn't this a bad idea?"
"It really doesn't matter," Nan Yi smiled faintly and pointed in the direction of Wang Qingqiu, "Your male companion has been looking this way, Miss Liu, why don't we talk about it next time."
Liu Andy turned around to take a look and said apologetically, "Sorry, I'll go first."
"Please help yourself."
After Liu Andi left, no one disturbed Nan Yi anymore, and he could continue to immerse himself in the world and be in a state of mind.
After smoking three or five cigarettes, a young man who seemed to be the host tapped the cup with a spoon. After attracting everyone's attention, he announced the official start of the salon and asked those who wanted to participate to move to the living room.
As he finished speaking, most of the men with female companions whispered to their female companions and then walked towards the living room.
After a while, Nan Yi also followed him into the living room.
In the living room, there was only one red spot amid the green. Ruan Mei was the only woman there, and all her female companions were left outside.
Like all investment salons, today's one also starts with the Federal Reserve and U.S. bonds, followed by oil and gold, and then onshore and offshore RMB. After a while of vague talk, the topic began to get down to earth.
You know what, the topics they talked about were all very practical, such as chain breakfast shops, convenience stores, the beauty industry, maternal and child care, car beauty, online shopping platforms, etc. They didn't talk about private equity funds worth hundreds of billions of dollars or sovereign funds entering a certain industry in a big way. It was very down-to-earth.
After talking about various projects, the topic turned to the stock market. It was said that there had been rumors in the market recently that the stamp duty would be increased. The rumor was so widespread that the Ministry of Finance was forced to come out and solemnly refute the rumor: The Ministry of Finance has no plans to increase the stamp duty on securities transactions in the near future.
Some people are optimistic that the stock market will continue to be strong, others say that falsehood may be true, and truth may be falsehood. To dispel the rumor means that the stock market will really be raised, and it may be a surprise attack.
Nan Yi has been keeping an eye on people who hold bearish opinions, and has also been in text message contact with Sister Chan who advises people to invest.
Nan Yi: What do you think of stamp duty?
Sister Chan: The market is overheated, and the government should pour cold water on it.
Nan Yi: What about the amplitude?
Sister Chan: It is estimated that the adjustment will be large. There is a piece of news that can be considered together. Pension funds have begun to pilot investment in index funds in the stock market. Pension funds cannot lose.
Nan Yi: I understand. Are there any other references?
Sister Chan: Several bellwether funds that we have focused on have shown signs of retreating, and are pushing up prices, and will probably be sold out soon.
Nan Yi: You?
Sister Chan: Shipping now, wait and see after shipping.
Nan Yi: I use most of my funds to invest in QDII.
Sister Chan: How much?
Nan Yi: 5,000.
Sister Chan: Ten thousand?
Nan Yi: Yuan.
Sister Chan: The starting sales amount for a single customer must not be less than RMB 300,000 or equivalent foreign currency.
Nan Yi: The threshold is too high, forget it. As a personal thank you, how about a villa in Honolulu, 6 million, with great room for appreciation.
Sister Chan: No need, I get a share of the profits.
Nan Yi: The profit is between you and Hongdou, and thanks is between you and me.
Sister Chan: Thank you.
Nan Yi: You deserve it, this is it for now.
“I think the stock market is in a good place right now and the bull market will continue for a long time…”
After sending the text message, Nan Yi looked up and saw Liu Andi's male companion chatting there. From what he said, he was very optimistic about the stock market and estimated that he had invested a lot of money.
After listening for a while, seeing that the topic was stuck on the stock market, Nan Yi sent a text message to Ruan Mei. After saying hello, he walked out of the living room and glanced at the two beautiful girls. The idea of developing a fool-proof photo-editing software popped into his mind.
After a little thought, the software can only reflect its value if it is spread within a small circle, which limits its ceiling. It is just a small thing and not worth his attention. Besides, he hates fraud. He is obviously a short and fat person, but he tries to fool her by making her look like a long-legged beauty.
…
"I just received news that Libyan Prime Minister Baghdadi announced the layoff of 400,000 employees from the public sector and forced foreign companies to hire them on the premise of providing full wages and loan benefits. The oil company controlled by our foundation has also received a hiring request."
At the meeting of the Council of Elders of the Jewish United Fund, Elder Yucheved, who was primarily responsible for intelligence gathering, briefed everyone.
"Scarlett, what do you think?" Deputy leader Yevgeny asked Scarlett, who is also a deputy leader.
Over the past decade, Scarlett has made significant contributions to the Foundation, and her status in the Presbyterian Church has risen higher and higher, climbing to the highest position of deputy leader.
The Jewish Foundation has no real leader, only a spiritual leader, Jehovah. The highest position is deputy leader, there are three of them. Scarlett is one of the three giants and has a significant say in the foundation's assets, which have expanded to $640 billion and its network of relationships around the world.
Scarlett nodded to the person operating the projector, and soon pointed to the projected chart and said, "The oil economy that Libya relies on is a special economic form. It not only includes the scarce resource attribute attached to oil itself, and the competition for interests caused by this scarce resource will become the fuse that triggers the civil war; it also includes a series of social and economic problems such as inequality and poverty caused by the oil industry, and even leads to political problems such as government rent-seeking."
Switching the projection, Scarlett continued: "This is the growth of Libya's population in the past 20 years. As of mid-March, Libya's population was 6.012 million, of which young people aged 15-35 accounted for 79%. In fact, employment contradictions have existed in Libya for a long time, and high unemployment rates have always existed with the country's economic prosperity.
This high unemployment rate stems from Libya's highly dependent government-monopolized oil economy. Under the squeeze of government departments and a large number of state-owned oil industries, the scale of foreign and domestic private enterprises is severely restricted, and the society lacks manufacturing and service industries that can provide a large number of employment opportunities.
If a world-class financial crisis breaks out at this time, it will definitely have a huge impact on many resource-dependent countries, including Libya. The existing jobs are far from meeting the growing domestic labor demand, resulting in a large number of unemployed and unemployed people. "
The projection was switched again, and several photos appeared on the screen. "These are photos taken by Foundation intelligence personnel in Benghazi. The streets of Benghazi are full of unemployed young people playing video games. They all have high education, bachelor's degrees, master's degrees, and even doctorates.
Since Gaddafi came to power through a coup in August 1968, he has used the wealth accumulated from the oil economy to provide citizens with free education benefits all the way to university. The country's nearly 5 million people have received a good education and the national quality is generally high.
Under the strong impact of the contrast between ideals and reality, autocracy and openness and freedom, and the series of psychological imbalances caused by the employment gap, these Libyan youths who survive in the cracks will accumulate anger in silence. "
Scarlett glanced at the conference room and smiled. "Paul Collier, director of the African Economic Research Center at Oxford University, mentioned in his 1998 paper "On the Economic Causes of Civil War" that young people are more likely to establish armed forces.
Economic factors are more likely to lead to civil war than political dissatisfaction, especially when the income they receive in the labor market does not meet their expectations.
I used to be involved in the diamond trade with Sierra Leone, and have done in-depth research on the Sierra Leone Civil War. I have also summarized a theory: when there is a serious exclusionary socio-economic situation, only violence can meet people's basic needs, and the long-term shortage of job opportunities will cause young people to revolt for wealth and status.
Well, you can call it a revolution if you want."
Another deputy leader, Judah Nazareno, said, “Scarlett, do you think there will be a civil war in Libya?”
"Judas, don't worry, let me continue." Scarlett responded, signaling to switch the projection, "In the 1980s, the Gaddafi government nationalized all private enterprises. Although the policy was relaxed in the 1990s to allow the establishment of the private sector, the remnants of the planned economy have not been completely eliminated and still dominate the Libyan economy.
This highly centralized economy has led to a high degree of government restriction and intervention in economic activities, some of which have even been incorporated into the law. In recent years, Libya has adopted a strict policy, enforcing the export agency system and prohibiting foreign businesses from engaging in commercial activities in the country.
In the Global Economic Freedom Index Report released by the Heritage Foundation, Libya ranked 155th, slightly higher than North Korea and Cuba, becoming one of the most repressed economies, which also fully demonstrates the high degree of centralization of Libya's economy.
The imbalances in Libya's industrial sector have not been effectively alleviated in the long-term institutional reform and will have incalculable consequences in the future.
As the oil economy is Libya's dominant industry, the oil and gas sector generates more than 90% of Libyan national income and about 95% of export revenue, making Libya one of the countries with the least diversified economies in the world.
However, the oil and gas sector, which creates a lot of wealth for the country, employs only 3% of the country's workforce; 45% of the workforce is stranded in the public sector, and job opportunities have been controlled by the Beni Hilal tribe headed by the Gaddafi family, while the private sector only creates 2% of GDP.
It can be seen from this that Libya's social environment cannot provide the corresponding entrepreneurial enthusiasm and hardware facilities. The nationalization of large enterprises and the monopoly of state-owned oil and gas companies still hinder rapid economic development.
The highly single real estate sector makes the Libyan economy appear weak. Even the power politics and high per capita GDP under Gaddafi's rule cannot cover up the fragility of its national economy. Due to its over-reliance on the oil economy and an almost extremely single economic system, Libya cannot have the flexibility and adaptability to deal with crises like countries with diversified economies.
Once a global financial crisis breaks out, it will lead to a sharp drop in oil prices and partial withdrawal of investment by foreign oil companies. This will undoubtedly be a heavy blow to Libya, which is highly dependent on oil exports, and may even mean the collapse of the entire national economy.
The unrecoverable economic structure and the accompanying high unemployment, high inflation rate and political corruption have become the fuse for social unrest .
These are the economic problems in Libya, and I will now turn to the relations between the tribes.”
Scarlett indicated to switch the projection, "Under Gaddafi's dictatorship, the Libyan government not only failed to provide fair subsidies to non-tribal people through the oil economy, but also suppressed ethnic groups in various regions in an unfair manner:
The oil-rich eastern region has always been suppressed and neglected. Since the local area cannot obtain the legality, technology and equipment to extract oil, the central government and foreign companies have unsurprisingly monopolized local oil extraction.
In the eyes of people in Eastern Cyrenaica, Gaddafi's dictatorship is the West plundering the East's oil for its own benefit.
Oil extraction has brought about environmental damage and frictions and bottlenecks caused by negotiations, but the government refuses to provide more benefits and public services to the region. In the not-so-enlightened Libyan society, one region has insufficient income but has to bear the cost of extraction. In addition, the oil economy will stimulate people's capital accumulation psychology. When this mentality causes a gap with reality, it will become an irreconcilable contradiction between the east and west regions.
Based on the awareness of fair development and equal distribution of the benefits of the oil economy, once the eastern region believes that civil war can obtain better resource allocation, it will fight for it, which greatly increases the possibility of civil war breaking out.
32% of Libya's oil is sold to Italy, about 425,000 barrels/day, 14% is sold to Germany, about 178,000 barrels/day, and 10% is sold to France, about 133,000 barrels/day. France, Switzerland, Ireland and Austria import more than 15% of their crude oil from Libya.
This external oil economy links the development of the North and the South together, and in fact, European countries have become hostages of oil exporting countries. For European countries that are highly dependent on imported oil, energy supply shortages will severely hit their economic growth and cause financial and economic difficulties.
Especially under the influence of the possible financial crisis, if the relations between Libya and oil-importing countries deteriorate, European countries will feel extremely insecure.
Libya's oil companies are completely nationalized, and foreign oil companies are subject to profit-sharing contracts. The exploration investment is entirely borne by the contractors. Once the oil and gas are commercially developed, the Libyan government will share in the profits, with a profit of up to 80%, which means that the huge profits will not be left to the oil companies. "
Scarlett gestured to turn off the projector and returned to her seat. "If a civil war breaks out in Libya, European countries, including the United States, will definitely conduct 'humanitarian' military intervention in Libya, and the most active country will be..."
Scarlett kept the topic in suspense and did not mention the country's name. She just glanced at the people present.
Nazareno said: "France has 32 French companies operating in Libya, and they are concentrated in the energy sector, with billions of dollars of investment. These companies have long been under the oppression of the Gaddafi government on foreign companies. For France, ousting Gaddafi and replacing him with a new force will undoubtedly make it the biggest beneficiary."
Scarlett: "There is no doubt that Gaddafi's international image is not good. Once the situation in Libya becomes unstable, he will not be able to win much international support. Perhaps Russia will provide some assistance. If I were the leader of the anti-government armed forces, I would promise European and American countries that once the revolution succeeds, the oil-sharing contract will be renegotiated."
"After we leave, they will build schools and hospitals for you and increase your wages. This is not because they have a change of heart or have become good people, but because we have been here," Yevgeny said. "Guevara is a revolutionary whom I respect very much. I believe that Benghazi is a hot land like Rosario. There, a revolutionary will also be born who will fight for oil freedom."
Yucheved: "Do we wait or look for a target to support us?"
Yevgeni: "Scarlett, do you think we need to personally take action to push the situation in Libya?"
Scarlett denied it. "No, the oil consortium has greater interests. We just need to plan, wait, and then share the profits."
Nazareno: “I agree.”
Yevgeni: "OK, we'll discuss the details at the next meeting."
…
As for Nan Youqiong, he is attending a seminar on housing price trends jointly held by the Finance Group and the Real Estate Group of the Information and Policy Committee to study the possible trends of US housing prices in the next few years.
Due to property taxes and laws in some states that are not very friendly to landlords, the threshold for hoarding and speculating in houses in the United States is relatively high. Without a considerable increase in price, the profits from speculation in houses will not be too high and it cannot be a good investment option.
However, as New Century Financial Corporation filed for bankruptcy protection and news of huge losses in two flagship mortgage-related hedge funds under Bear Stearns, the fifth largest brokerage firm and second largest mortgage bond underwriter, spread privately, a sharp drop in housing prices has become a foregone conclusion. At this time, hoarding houses is a politically correct approach and one with an infinitely high probability of profit.
What we need to discuss and analyze now is whether this kind of investment can bring huge returns and whether it is worth Nan's large investment.
Two thousand years later, the Nan family adjusted its financial investment strategy, investing more of its own funds in fixed-income financial products such as government bonds and bonds, with the sole purpose of protecting principal and interest and offsetting currency depreciation caused by inflation.
Only a small portion of funds will be invested in high-risk and high-return financial products in the hope of making a small investment for a big return. Moreover, this area is mainly about using chickens to lay eggs. Institutions such as Scarlett Fund and PY Securities raise external funds and earn profit sharing and management fees.
There are also many other investment models, combining various high, medium and low-risk investments, and allocating funds reasonably. We do not seek explosive growth in Nan’s capital pool, but only seek steady growth.
With a company of Nan's size, as long as no one makes a desperate move and as long as the world's financial landscape does not undergo drastic changes, it is unlikely to suffer serious losses, and all investments are within a controllable range.
Nan Youqiong's biggest responsibility is to continue to consolidate the foundation of the Nan family, and under this premise, he can then launch various layouts, investments or speculations. He must be capable, but not too ambitious, and must be willing to act as a good fighter without any outstanding military achievements.
The first priority for the large investments he presided over was stability. He did not seek to make a big profit on the investment, but only to recover the principal and interest smoothly, and then repeat it over and over again, accumulating bit by bit.
You can have fun with speculating hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. If you make money, you make money. If you lose, be more conservative next time.
He is now attending the seminar with the principle of seeking stability. If the final conclusion shows that the risk of real estate speculation is very high, Nan will only invest more than one billion yuan to take a gamble and seek political correctness at the same time - contributing to the stability of housing prices.
