"It's a very effective strategy, but unfortunately, it will definitely not be implemented."
"Times" is an all-inclusive column with a news section. Moreover, this column is aimed at people with a higher cultural level, the elite class of the Soviet revisionists. Aksinya used to be a host of this column. Even if she knew nothing about finance at the beginning, she could learn a thing or two after reading more manuscripts.
"Well, in order to prevent your broadcasting skills from deteriorating, you will read the newspaper to me every morning. After reading the manuscript, you must also express your opinions. I will give you more responsibilities. From now on, you will be my personal global financial strategy analysis consultant. Do your best and don't let the organization down."
After Nan Yi finished speaking, he wiped his mouth with paper, picked up the enamel bowl on the table and walked towards the kitchen.
Aksinya sneered at Nan Yi's words. She could feel that Nan Yi was dissatisfied with her arrival from the first day, but she had her reasons to stay, otherwise she would have chopped off that dirty hand yesterday.
In the kitchen, Nan Yi was rinsing an enamel bowl while thinking about the report of the National Bank. He was sure that the two suggestions in the report would not be passed. Most of the leaders of the member states who were already acting independently would not agree to them, and the people of the Soviet Union would not agree to them either.
If you ask any young person under the age of 35 on the streets of Moscow, you will hear that the Soviet revisionist economic policies and past traditions are rubbish and should be discarded without reservation. What he yearns for is the American economic model and the American way of life.
At present, the ideas of the Soviet revisionists can be roughly divided into three categories. The first category is the elderly who have gone through the Great Patriotic War. They are obsessed with the glory of the Soviet Union in the past and cannot extricate themselves. They regret the decline of their country.
The second category is people who benefited from the welfare when the Soviet revisionists were strong. They enjoyed various benefits of the state, including free medical care, free convalescence, free heating, free telephone calls, abundant supplies, etc. However, this kind of welfare is like Wang Xiaoer's New Year, getting worse every year. They have complaints, but they can continue to stick to their jobs.
The third category is those under 35 years old. When they became adults and were about to start working, the Soviet revisionists had just entered a period of decline. They had heard about and seen those good welfare benefits, but when it came to them, they were gone. They could only watch the excitement, like flowers in the fog and the moon in the water.
On the contrary, the top executives of companies can continue to enjoy their high-end recuperation and live their lives as before. They are not troubled by the scarcity of benefits but the inequality of benefits. They understand that people are divided into different classes and they can understand that some people can enjoy better benefits than them, but why are their benefits gone while the upper class are not affected at all?
Just when they were confused and dissatisfied, liberal ideas emerged in the Soviet revisionists again, and Western-style freedom and democracy suddenly became very popular in the Soviet revisionists.
It can be said that the disintegration of the Soviet revisionism was something that most Soviet revisionists had been looking forward to and were happy to see happen. It is not without reason that singers like Tatiana Ovsenko, who mainly sang Western disco music and had sung "American Boy", became popular in Russia.
From Nan Yi's perspective, he is willing to stand together with the Soviet revisionist people. He does not want the National Bank's proposal to be passed. Issuing more rubles means that the ruble exchange rate will depreciate faster, which will cause panic among Russians. They will exchange the rubles in their hands for goods as soon as possible. No one will deposit money in the bank and watch the depreciation.
If no one deposits money, it means that Vasily Bank cannot absorb ruble chips, which also means that the cost of purchasing goods will increase. Not only will the overall pie become smaller, but the share that can be obtained will also decrease. Several years of planning and hard work will be in vain in an instant.
The ruble must depreciate significantly, but not now. For Western capital entering Russia, it is in their interest for the ruble to remain relatively stable at present, or even to appreciate slightly.
After washing the enamel bowl, Nan Yi boiled some water and brewed a pot of green tea and another pot of black tea. The black tea that Russians drink is too strong and has become black tea. Nan Yi is not used to it.
After making the tea, he took it to the study on the first floor. He used the black tea to moisten Aksinya's throat while she continued reading the newspaper. Nan Yi stood at the window with a cup of tea, looking at Jack and Rose outside the window. The new security guards sent by the Dove of Peace were eating their small meal there. The beef ribs were covered with thick meat, roasted to a golden color, and sprinkled with peach blossom salt.
After listening to Aksinya reading the newspaper for half an hour, Nan Yi asked her to call Bao Huantou to inquire about the investment promotion situation.
Bao Huantou replied that 97 people had already checked in. It had only been two days, and to have so many people was a very gratifying result. However, Nan Yi was not very satisfied. It was too slow, too slow.
Letting Aksinya stay to deal with the documents, Nan Yi asked Yepisov to meet outside the Ascension Church on the banks of the Moscow River. "Episov, there have been several robberies against Chinese businessmen in the past few days. Do you know about this?"
"I don't know. The case is too small and will not be reported to me," said Yepisov.
"Friendship Leather City 's investment promotion work is going well, but I'm still not very satisfied with the progress. I have read the federal law. According to the above provisions, in cases like robbery, if the suspect is not arrested on the spot at the time of the crime, you can only detain the suspect for four hours. If there is no "face-to-face" identification by the victim, the suspect can only be released.
No matter which country the merchants are from, they all seek profit and avoid harm. If they are asked to identify the robbers in person, they will be afraid of being targeted by the robbers' accomplices. It is too easy to make money in Moscow. As long as they are not in danger of being robbed a few times a year, they can still tolerate it. "
Yepisov understood Nan Yi's subtext as soon as he heard it. By catching the robber, the investigators could first make some "stolen money" during the arrest, and then ask the victims to identify the suspect. If the victims dare not identify the suspect or there is insufficient evidence, the suspect will pay bail and be released, and they can make some income both publicly and privately.
The robbers have suffered a large loss and are being detained, so they will most likely go back to robbing more aggressively, and their methods may very likely escalate.
"Haha, Adam, I understand. I will give the order to arrest the robber as soon as possible." Yepisov laughed happily and said.
What Nan Yi wanted was not difficult for him at all, as it was originally within his scope of responsibility.
Moscow is in chaos, but there is order within the chaos. It's not that no one cares about evil deeds. Moreover, because of the policy environment for attracting foreign investment, Russia is still relatively favorable to foreigners. For example, in terms of medical care, because the entire Soviet revisionist system provided free medical care, there is no clear standard for how much medical treatment should be charged for foreigners. Minor illnesses are often free, while major illnesses are charged a certain fee.
For example, when a trader was robbed before, it was not that no one cared. The Moscow law enforcement agencies would be dispatched and those who should be arrested would be arrested, but since no victim dared to identify him, the case would be left unresolved. After such incidents happened too many times, the law enforcement agencies were less interested in caring about the Chinese.
All I can say is that Russian laws are too harsh and too favorable to suspects.
[It’s not that the Soviet revisionists who made the law had a hole in their brains. This was because the early secret police (starting from the Cheka period) had too much power and too many “suspects” died in vain, which resulted in an overcorrection.]
After the two finished chatting, Yepisov left immediately, but Nan Yi did not leave. He stood by the Moscow River to appreciate its ordinariness for a while, waiting for Jincuibao to bring people to pick up Lin Shuyi and the others. Then the group boarded the "Moscow Boatmen Restaurant" moored by the river.
After picking a table and sitting down and ordering the dishes, Lin Shuyi asked, "Nan Yi, how long have you been in Moscow?"
"Almost a month."
"What's the situation here?" Lin Shuyi asked again.
"What do you mean?"
“Political and economic environment.”
"It's worse, but it's fertile ground for you Lehman."
To put it more nicely, Lehman Brothers was good at adapting to changes in circumstances. It only cared about the results and not the process. In order to achieve its goals, it could be said that it would do anything. It could do things that other investment banks could not.
"I read the Kommersant this morning. Nan Yi, what do you think of the two suggestions put forward by the National Bank Policy Committee? I mean from the perspective of the Soviet revisionist countries." Lin Shuyi did not want to talk about Lehman Brothers, so she changed the subject.
Nan Yi smacked his lips, weighed the options, and decided to say a few words.
"If I stand in the perspective of the Soviet revisionists, I would not agree with the proposals put forward by the National Bank. In my opinion, their actions are too small and a bit timid. If I were to make the decision, I would not only issue more rubles and strengthen financial control, but also lower the threshold for corporate loans, subsidize light industrial enterprises, reduce taxes, and carry out large-scale infrastructure construction."
Nan Yi smiled calmly and stroked the joints of his right fingers with his left hand. "In short, I will do whatever Western financial institutions disagree with and think is wrong. If possible, I will crack down on smuggling and increase import tariffs."
"Nan Yi, the views put forward by some international financial institutions such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank are obviously in line with common sense in economics. As a country's economic regulation tool, the issuance of currency has strict control standards. Under the current circumstances, issuing more rubles will cause inflation.
Now, the ruble has already shown signs of depreciation . If the White House makes such a decision again, it will trigger inflation on a larger scale, further..."
"What further?" Nan Yi interrupted Lin Shuyi, "The Yellow Emperor's Classic of Internal Medicine says: We must attack the center with poison. There is an idiom called "fighting poison with poison". I think only by continuing to extend this idea can we stabilize the current economic situation of the Soviet revisionists and avoid a disaster.
There is nothing wrong with the currency issue you mentioned based on economic principles. For a country, unlimited money issuance will only lead to catastrophic inflation. And facing the crisis of currency depreciation, there is nothing wrong with implementing a monetary tightening policy.
The biggest mistake in the views put forward by international financial institutions is that they have not conducted on-site investigations into the actual situation of Soviet revisionism, hmm…”
Nan Yi paused, "It should be said that they deliberately ignored this issue. They listed a lot of convincing claims based on common sense in economics, and openly put these claims in front of senior officials in Moscow, so that those smart people who want to pursue the American dream can believe their paradoxes that are full of conspiracy and evil intentions. Their..."
Nan Yi omitted the part about "using financial means to achieve the continuation of its military strategy", stopped talking, picked up the water glass on the table and took a sip of water.
Lin Shuyi looked at Nan Yi with burning eyes, waiting for him to continue.
Catching Lin Shuyi's gaze, Nan Yi could only continue: "In fact, to analyze the right or wrong of the National Bank's decision, we must analyze it from the current specific situation of the Soviet revisionists.
According to the advice of international financial institutions, the biggest crisis facing the Soviet revisionists at present is not the massive outflow of currency, but rather the inflationary pressure brought about by the depreciation of the ruble.
But what is the truth?
At present, the unemployment rate in the Soviet revisionists has reached 38.74%, that is, nearly 39 out of every 100 people are unemployed.
Let's look at the social welfare policies. A few months ago, the Soviet revisionists were still enjoying a series of welfare policies from birth to old age, including more than 13 years of free education, a rigidly allocated employment system, a housing system that was almost fully subsidized by the government, a very comprehensive medical insurance system, and a retirement pension policy that provided a reliable source of support for the elderly. There were many such policies.
With security, ordinary Soviet revisionists naturally do not care much about money. They do not need to save and are willing to spend. However, they cannot buy the goods they want in the stores, so they envy the scene of widespread stores and a wide range of goods in Western society.
But now, the social welfare system is on the verge of collapse, the unemployment rate has soared, and the people of the Soviet revisionism will hold on to their purses and will not spend them crazily.
The Soviet revisionist people are facing the same social environment, which naturally gives rise to a very similar consumption mentality. Everyone is working hard to save money to deal with possible crises.
This is actually a kind of monetary tightening. Under this premise, how likely is it that the Soviet revisionists will experience inflation?
I can be sure of one thing: if the Soviet revisionists do not have an inflationary environment, the sudden emergence of inflation will only be caused by external factors, that is, there is a black hand in the international community playing tricks and plotting against the Soviet revisionist big brother.
Nan Yi knocked on the table in indignation, and shamelessly circled himself in a circle and cursed.
"The National Bank's Countermeasures Committee issued these two recommendations to prevent this conspiracy from succeeding and to stimulate the consumer market to a certain extent.
The National Bank's increase in the issuance of ruble currency will inevitably affect the savings amount. Everyone knows that the increase in currency issuance may cause a certain degree of depreciation. In that case, it is safer to deposit money in the bank than to spend it directly.
Once the consumer market becomes active, an internal circulation can be achieved under the circumstance of serious sluggish exports from the Soviet revisionists. The vast market of 286 million people can completely revive a large number of companies, thereby curbing the surge in unemployment and ultimately driving the economy of the entire country towards a virtuous cycle.
The reason why I said just now that, on the basis of the two policies, we should increase infrastructure investment, lower the loan threshold for enterprises, reduce tax rates, and restrict imports is also to save the Soviet revisionist light industry.
On the one hand, it can curb the expansion of unemployment rate, and on the other hand, it can prevent the dumping of foreign goods.
Let's go back to the suggestions made by international financial institutions that are "in line with basic economic laws" and "more credible". They are going to adopt further monetary tightening policies, which means that it will become more difficult for companies to obtain loans.
At the same time, they also have to cut government public investment. Given the current surge in unemployment, what consequences would it bring if the Soviet Union introduced these two policies?
There is no doubt that public infrastructure construction projects that can provide a large number of employment opportunities will be cancelled, which will increase social employment pressure on the one hand and deal a heavy blow to related industries on the other hand, further increasing the social unemployment rate.
The increase in loan thresholds has made the situation of many companies that were already in trouble even worse. At the same time, international financial institutions have also proposed increasing taxes to solve the government's fiscal deficit.
Needless to say, they felt that the Soviet revisionist enterprises were dying too slowly and not thoroughly enough.
As we all know, increasing taxes means increasing costs for enterprises. At present, the light industry in the Soviet Union is shrinking, and the local market for daily necessities is facing external dumping pressure; the heavy industry is lagging behind, and export products are not competitive.
Once taxes increase, production costs will rise, and both heavy industries oriented toward exports and light industries oriented toward the domestic market will suffer devastating consequences.
If this continues, the Soviet revisionist light industry will probably face the danger of death, and the heavy industry will not be much better, at most it will have a chance to survive.
However, the kind-hearted international financial institutions left a way out for the Soviet revisionist big brother. They can provide interest-bearing loans to big brother to help it tide over the difficulties. But it is foreseeable that when these loans are sent to Moscow, the Kremlin will probably be worried again.
They will be surprised to find that these loans are barely enough to repay debts and pay for imported goods. What should Big Brother do then?
It's okay. Isn't there still private ownership waiting? All state-owned industrial and mining enterprises are privately owned. Although Big Brother's light and heavy industries are finished, the resources underground are valuable. Exporting them will definitely bring in generous foreign exchange.
In this way, the plan was implemented step by step, and a world power with developed heavy industry could only be reduced to a third world exporter of raw materials. This final result is exactly what the Western economic experts in the Kremlin are happy to see. "
Nan Yi slammed the table again, "Shameless, shameless! Imperialism is determined to destroy us. The evil capitalists are willing to do anything shameless to seize wealth. No, we must fight against private capitalism and criticize... capitalism."
Except for the final gag, Nan Yi's macroeconomic analysis can be said to be easy to understand. Lin Shuyi naturally understood it as soon as she heard it, but she did not completely agree with Nan Yi's analysis. In her opinion, the current economic situation of the Soviet revisionists is indeed bad, but not so bad that it is vulnerable.
Especially the heavy industry. After decades of development, the Soviet revisionist heavy industry system is complete and well-developed. The entire industrial system worth trillions of rubles cannot be defeated just like that, let alone be defeated thoroughly, and has been reduced to relying on exporting raw materials to survive.
How is it possible that we were defeated so thoroughly that we have to rely on exporting raw materials to survive?
It can only be said that Lin Shuyi does not know enough about the current situation of the Soviet revisionists. When she has a deeper understanding, she will definitely not think so. As for Nan Yi's witty remarks, she did not quite understand them. She went abroad early and had not experienced many things.
For Nan Yi, the reason why he was willing to say so much was because the Nan Group had shares in Lehman Brothers and because Lehman Brothers was likely to become an ally in the Soviet revisionist strategy. Also, he and Lin Shuyi were mother and son, close relatives, connected by blood, and they were family members. How could he, as a son, be perfunctory to his mother?
"There is only one good mother in the world. Children with mothers are like treasures, thrown into the arms of their mothers..."
[Sometimes Soviet revisionism, sometimes Russia, it’s a bit confusing. You can understand Soviet revisionism as something like the European Union, which will be easier to understand.]