"The Imperial Hotel."
"Well, after the promulgation of the Regulations on Controlling Land-Related Financing in March, have there been any changes in the management strategies of the major real estate companies in Tokyo?"
"There won't be much change for now. They hold too much real estate and land, so it's not easy to turn around. Also, although it's harder to get loans from banks, Jusen is expanding in size, so its financing channels haven't been affected too much."
[Jusen can be understood as shadow banking, which is a quasi-financial company whose funds mainly come from banks and credit unions. It can provide residents with various mortgages without restrictions, including down payment loans and zero mortgages. There are many types of loans. In fact, it is a disguise that banks give themselves in order to circumvent policies.
There are even more advanced “descendant loans”, where young people today can take out loans until they become grandfathers, and their grandchildren can pay off the loans. There are also century loans with a repayment period of up to 100 years, where the father borrows and the son repays, the son borrows and the grandson repays, and the loans are passed down from generation to generation for thousands of years.
"It's still expanding?" Nan Yi asked in surprise.
"Yes, Jusen has been kidnapped by commercial real estate equity. They hold too much land in Tokyo. A lot of the land we sold has flowed into their hands. They can no longer turn back. They can only make the best of a bad situation and continue to support it."
“What do you think the Ministry of Finance will do next? What will Yasushi Mieno [Bank of Japan Governor] do?”
"The Ministry of Finance will deleverage and resolutely prevent the real estate bubble from expanding further. Then banks will continue to raise interest rates and increase financing costs to prevent people from leveraging and buying houses at will. It is estimated that Yasushi Mieno will not save the troubled credit unions. Instead, he believes that eliminating these bad apples will make the entire financial system healthier."
"Do you think it's a little late to burst the real estate bubble now? Too much national wealth is stored in real estate. If house prices fall for several consecutive days, how many families will become negative assets?"
Ueto Masami shook her head. "I don't think it's too late. Popping the bubble now can wake up most Japanese people from the empty prosperity and make them understand that Japan's economy is not as prosperous as it appears. If we squeeze out the water from the real estate industry and put the focus back on the manufacturing and electronics industries, and work hard to govern, Japan will eventually rise again."
“What about families with negative equity?”
"Every major change requires sacrifice. They are not chosen as victims; this is their own subjective choice."
"Oh, Yamei, you are really cruel."
"I learned all this from you, President." Ueto Masami smiled.
"Nonsense, I'm a kind person." Nan Yi closed the document in his hand, "Let's discuss what will happen after the real estate bubble bursts."
"Chairman, if the real estate bubble bursts, more than 7 million people working in Tokyo's real estate industry will face unemployment. At least half of the 7 million jobs are for families. If we calculate based on a family of three, the livelihoods of more than 14 million people will be affected. This is a direct impact, and there are also indirect impacts.
Companies with large investments in real estate will face a break in their capital chain, high debts, and then bankruptcy. A large number of people will face unemployment. Others are individuals who directly participate in real estate investment. They have relied on real estate for their entire lives. When house prices fall and loans cannot be repaid, some will choose to commit suicide, and some will become illegal residents. Even if they choose to face it directly, they will face the situation of their houses being taken away, leaving them with nothing and no place to live. "
Ueto Masami sighed, "Japan will enter a low-desire society. Branded clothes, bags, golf and everything else will be eliminated. There will be more alcoholics, and the izakaya business will definitely improve."
Nan Yi listened to what Ueto Masami said, but in his heart he was thinking, "In the next few years, Bai Ri Fei Sheng Service Company needs to change its product positioning, temporarily reduce the supply of high-end coffins, and develop more low-end and cheap products."
"How are those housewives whose husbands commit suicide and who have children to feed themselves and raise their children?"
Ueto Masami bit her lip, hesitated for a moment, and said, "It's easier to make money in the sex industry. The sex industry in Tokyo should be very prosperous in the next few years."
"Isn't what you said contradictory? The economic situation has deteriorated, incomes have decreased, and everyone is tightening their belts and daring not to spend. Who would patronize a brothel?" Nan Yi asked knowingly.
"Tourists and sex shops will develop a customer base of foreign tourists, and relevant legislation may also be changed."
"Then do you think the scale of the sex industry will be large enough for us to invest in? Register a new company and provide financing services to sex shops and nightclubs in Ginza."
"It should have a good return, but, President, if we participate in this kind of investment, will it be..."
"Low level?"
"Yes."
“Is it legal in Japan?”
"legitimate."
"That's enough. Providing financing to the sex industry can also be considered as indirectly creating jobs. We are doing good things and our merits are immeasurable."
"President, you are really good at making excuses."
"I'm not making a specious argument. Before filling one's stomach, everything else is secondary. Talking about morality to hungry people is the greatest immorality. What we should do is to let them fill their stomachs first. As for morality, let others talk about it."
"Haha, President, it's obviously for profit, why does it become a noble cause just because you say so?"
"Stop being naughty and talk about college students."
"College students will have a big psychological gap. They have witnessed the golden age of employment, and major companies have tried every possible means to attract fresh college graduates.
Help college students repay their tuition loans, invite college students who have not yet graduated to intern in the company with high salaries, and try their best to stay in the company after graduation. The company charters cars or buys air tickets, invites recent college graduates to go skiing or travel to various places, and the company demonstrates the company's welfare or humanistic care to college students.
The more excessive section chiefs of the companies will take the interns to brothels, where they will receive interview money for the interview, housing money after they join the company, etc.
The college graduates in the next few years will encounter a recession, and the employment market will reverse. Not only will they not be able to enjoy the same treatment as their predecessors, they may not even be able to find a job. Even if they do find a job, the salary will probably not be as good as before. The good days will eventually be gone forever. "
"The good times are gone, but life has to go on. We have to find a job and rent a house . When house prices fall, we will contact the banks and buy their non-performing assets. We want to enter the real estate management field."
"President, we cannot predict how low the housing prices will fall. Even if we buy the non-performing assets at a 10% or 20% discount, we may still suffer losses."
"Therefore, we need to have an effective appraisal department to make a correct and objective assessment of the value of real estate, and buy real estate that is priced below its actual value and in a good location and has a high probability of re-appreciating in the future."
"President, do you want to rent out the real estate you bought to recover part of your investment, and then wait for the real estate in Tokyo to appreciate again?"
"right."
Nan Yi nodded.
"President, you should know the legal provisions regarding real estate leasing in Japan?"
There are generally two ways to sign a contract for renting a house in Japan: a fixed-term contract [fixed-term rental contract] and an ordinary contract [ordinary rental contract].
A fixed-term contract is easy to understand. It is a fixed lease signed for a fixed period, such as one year. After the expiration of the term, the tenant must move out. Of course, an extension can be negotiated. In this type of contract, the landlord has a lot of initiative, so it is not popular in Japan. If the landlord wants to sign this type of contract with a tenant, the rent will often be very low.
You can rent a house for 100,000 yen, reduce the rent by half or less, and then subsidize the tenant with a considerable amount of moving expenses [moving costs in Japan are very high], and the tenant will be willing to sign a fixed-term contract.
When it comes to ordinary contracts, landlords have almost no rights, only obligations.
First of all, don’t even think about raising the rent. The price this year will remain the same next year. Secondly, don’t even think about evicting the tenant. Generally speaking, as long as the tenant pays the rent on time, they can stay as long as they want.
Even if the rent is overdue for one or two years, the landlord has no right to evict the tenant. Japanese law prohibits "self-help", which means trying to solve the problem by yourself. Cutting off water and electricity, hiring someone to intimidate the tenant, etc. are not allowed. The landlord can only go through legal procedures. If the tenant does something wrong, the tenant can sue the landlord.
In fact, legal proceedings may not necessarily evict the tenant. As long as the tenant is a stubborn person and continues to stay, the landlord has almost no legal options.
If the landlord wants the tenant to move out, he can only provide the tenant with "legitimate reasons" within one to six months after the expiration of the contract - the landlord has more legitimate reasons to use the house than the tenant and the house is likely to collapse. Apart from these two reasons, the tenant can hardly be asked to move out. Neighbor complaints if the tenant is too noisy are not reasons, the tenant committing a crime is not a reason, and the landlord's death is not a reason, as the heirs have to inherit the rental contract.
There is only one most effective and least labor-intensive way to get tenants to move out obediently: negotiate compensation and give tenants satisfactory compensation.
If the tenant wants to terminate the contract, it is relatively simple. He only needs to give the landlord a written notice three months before the expiration of the contract. The landlord does not have the right to refuse to terminate the contract.
In a word, those who rent houses in Japan are the boss.
"Of course, you were the one who helped me find those legal provisions, Yamei. After all, difficult tenants are still a minority. Most of them are reasonable and can be negotiated. What is the annual return rate for renting a house in Tokyo now?"
"It's about 6.9%, but this rate of return probably can't be maintained." Ueto Masami said after thinking for a while.
"It's okay. We don't need it to be that high. About 5% is enough." Nan Yi paused and said, "What do you think of Japan's future tourism market?"
Nan Yi asked this, and Ueto Masami immediately responded, "After the bubble bursts, the Ministry of Finance will use tourism as a breakthrough to restore the economy. In the next few years, there should be more and more tourists from Japan. So, President, are you planning to run a B&B?"
"Yes, and the real estate we acquire will mainly target foreigners living in Japan. Let's start the project analysis to see what our expected return can be. If it's too low, just pretend we didn't say anything before."
"President, what are your expectations?"
"That depends on how much of our own capital we need to invest. I hope this will be a financing project or a low-return fund. The less our own capital invested, the better."
"Hayi."
Nan Yi spread his hands and said, "Okay, that's enough about real estate, let's talk about something else."
"What do you want to talk about, Nagao-kun?"
When Ueto Masami heard Nan Yi talking about private matters, she relaxed and teased Nan Yi.
"Regarding this name, you have no right to mock me. Don't forget that I asked you to mail the book "Eastern Love" from Tokyo to Beijing, and you have never even read it."
"I saw the cover and it wasn't my style, so I didn't read it."
"Well, let's go for a walk." Nan Yi and the other man walked out of the office and came to the bare open space outside. "Have you decided what kind of tree to plant here?"
"Plant some Podocarpus, Acer palmatum, and some shrubs."
"Very good. Remember to communicate with security and don't cause them too much trouble."
“We will involve them when we make plans.”
"Um."
Nan Yi bent down, picked up a stone from the ground, and weighed it in his hand.
“I felt that video games had a bright future long ago, but at that time the gaming industry could not meet my expectations, and Nan’s funds were tight, so we had to spend the money on more important things.
Today, Nanshi has more funds and the gaming industry is booming. It’s time for us to start planning in this field.”
"Is Nan going to set up his own gaming company?"
"No, it's just a simple investment. Invest in game companies or studios with more potential. Investing in the game field is not only for financial returns, but also to explore remote 3D perspective control."
"The 3D in the 3D movie?"
[3D movies had a golden age in the 1950s, so it’s not surprising that Ueto Masami knew about 3D movies. In addition, 3D three-dimensional was not a new concept in 1990, and 3D software was already available on the market.]
"Yes, our suicide interest group tested the drone swarm in the previous retaliation operation in Sierra Leone. Although the actual combat effect was not good, it was because our technology was not up to standard. In time, with technological breakthroughs, the drones will surely be able to exert amazing combat capabilities.
Large drones have been put into practical use by both Israel and the United States. The direction of future wars may be that various unmanned aircraft, unmanned tanks, and robots will fight on the front lines, while people will hide in tortoise-shell-like fortresses and control them remotely.
When the technical strength is equal and the number of machines is the same, the competition is about the level of control.
Of course, war has little to do with us. What I am thinking about is the future. As humans grab resources at an increasingly faster rate, there is no guarantee that one day we humans will not start mining and exploring areas that are not suitable for human survival. By that time, excavation machines and exploration machines will need to be remotely controlled.
As you can imagine, the cost of such a remotely controlled machine is not low. We must give the control of such a machine to personnel with high control skills, but how should we train such personnel and how should we evaluate their skills? "
"Video game competition?" Ueto Masami asked tentatively.
"Yes, this is the solution I can think of for now. Investing in games is just the first step. What we really need to focus on is to wait for games suitable for online competitions to emerge, organize various competitive games, and study and summarize what type of talents we need, and then summarize a set of training models."
"President, this should be a relatively distant thing, right?"
"Who knows? Maybe there will be a technological explosion, and in thirty or fifty years, the things we envision will appear. By then, we will probably still be alive, and we may have the opportunity to see flying cars all over the sky, or see some things in science fiction movies come true.
In 1968's "2001: A Space Odyssey", videophones were already available 20 years earlier. Even the facilities prepared for athletes at this year's Beijing Asian Games have videophones.
In June this year, Schwarzenegger's "Total Recall" had scenes of driverless cars. This is not new, and the real thing has been made, although it is a bit terrible.
In the 1982 movie "Blade Runner", there were digital billboards and videophones. Once LCD technology develops further, the realization of digital billboards will not be a problem.
There are many other things, I will not list them one by one, I just want to say that some things we think are very far away may be very close to us, even if they are really far away, we should start exploring them from ourselves. "
"Haha, President, you're not even thirty years old yet, and you're already paving the way for the young president?"
"You could say that family inheritance is always accompanied by sacrifice and accumulation. When you don't have children, you live for yourself. When you have children, you focus on them. I'm actually still very self-centered, and my father didn't do a very good job."
"President, I think you have done well enough. Not only have you been able to accompany me, but many of Nan's projects are long-term investments. It is obvious that you are preparing them for the young president. In addition, many of your arrangements are also laying the foundation for the next generation."
"Haha, I'm not a genius, and I don't dare to expect my children to be geniuses. I can't even think about one generation of mutation. I can only think about three generations of accumulation." Nan Yi patted Ueto Masami's arm, "It's the same with you. When your children inherit your property in the future, they will always be able to run faster than others. What's more, the Nan family is not just the Nan family of my family, but the Nan family of all Nan people. As long as the big tree does not fall, it can always protect its own people."
"As long as the elite system remains unchanged, the Nan family will never fall." Ueto Masami said firmly.
"Well, I'm leaving. In order to prevent you from worrying about my ideas, I will not attend the online meeting this afternoon. You can inform me when you come up with a result."
In the afternoon, the Information and Strategy Committee and the South Office will hold a project seminar online to go through all of Nan's overseas investment projects and decide whether to increase investment, wait and see, or directly cut them. There are several projects that Nan Yi personally wants to invest in. If he attends the meeting, not everyone will dare to speak their true thoughts.
"President, I know you are talking about Huayi. The result of the discussion is probably not what you want. Huayi's investment is too large, and there is no hope of profit. Unless you force it to continue investing, otherwise, most people will definitely agree to cut this project or take over the company."
"Forget about forcing it, let's see whether everyone prefers to cut it off or take it over."
At the beginning, Hui Zesang promised Ni Guangnan that he would not interfere in Huayi's affairs for five years. Now it has been almost six years, and Huayi has not even shown any hope of making a profit, let alone achieving a balance between income and expenditure. It can be said that Ni Guangnan has managed Huayi in a mess.
From a purely business perspective, Huayi was originally a very unprofitable deal. After a huge investment, one could only own 10% of the shares in the end. Coupled with the lack of hope for return, it was normal for the people in the Intelligence Committee to be pessimistic. In fact, Nan Yi himself was inclined to send someone to take over. He was also worried that if he continued to invest blindly, not only would the huge amount of money be wasted, but his patriotic feelings would also be wasted.
After leaving the South Office, Nan Yi returned to the courtyard of Lake Kawaguchi.
Sayuri Hagiwara had already prepared a table of food, and a pot of wine was warming on the charcoal fire. When she saw Nan Yi, Sayuri Hagiwara came up to him and said, "Nagao-kun, you're back. You've worked hard today."
"You've worked hard to prepare so much food."
Nan Yi went to wash up, then sat in the pavilion and began to enjoy the service of Sayuri Hagiwara. He opened his mouth for food and wine, and flipped through the Asahi Shimbun in his hand, trying to find some clues about the "big infrastructure" from it.
Japan has been the world's number one infrastructure construction maniac since the early 1960s. After 30 years of infrastructure construction, its roads, rail transit, and water conservancy have long been in oversupply. Even a small village with a few people has a beautiful road leading to the village entrance. Dams are built along the coastline, and after the river channel is dredged, beautiful embankments are built on the river banks and river bottoms, covered with smooth cement.
In Japan in 1990, it can be said that there was no "nature" anymore; everything was man-made. Infrastructure had shifted from one objective need to another. Building a road was no longer because there was a lack of a road somewhere, but because an infrastructure project was needed at this moment. It didn't matter whether it was meaningful after being built, as it had completed its mission during the construction process.
If the housing price bubble is really burst, in addition to paying attention to manufacturing and developing tourism, Japan will probably also need large-scale infrastructure. The next step can be to build viaducts to connect each island. Nan Yi has already thought of an excuse for them, national defense. If the imaginary enemy invades the Japanese mainland in the future, the troops can reinforce every uninhabited island at any time, and every inch of land must be fought for.
There is no need to analyze whether it has actual strategic significance or not, as long as there is a reasonable reason. This is definitely better than repairing a road twice a year, and each repair takes half a year.
There was no news worth noting, so Nan Yi put away the newspaper. "Lily, where should we go for fun in November?"
"You can go to Kyoto. Autumn there has just begun, and the autumn leaves will come later. You can visit Buddhist temples, old palaces, and scenic riverside to enjoy the autumn leaves of the ancient capital. There is also a lighting event at Kiyomizu Temple, which will illuminate the autumn leaves at night. It is very beautiful."
"Want to go?"
"Want to go, Nagao-kun? Let's go today?"
"Okay, we'll set off after we have a short rest after dinner."
"Hayi."
…
Two days in Kyoto, changing from bed to tatami, different scenery, doing similar things.
After returning, Nan Yi met with Ikeda Karikyo and the negotiation team of the Southern Bank. Many small banks and credit unions in Japan had gone bankrupt, and the Southern Bank came to acquire non-performing assets in an attempt to dig out gold from the rubbish.
As for acquiring banks, the time has not yet come and the Ministry of Finance has no intention of selling bankrupt banks to foreign banks. Instead, it is engaging in mergers among domestic Japanese banks, placing an even heavier burden on the banks that are already having a hard time.
Only when the banks that carry the burden can no longer bear it, will it be the time to acquire Japanese banks.
After that, he met with Kikuchi Takayuki of I Retail and put the acquisition of 7-ELEVEn on the specific agenda. In the next three years, I Retail's main task will be to merge with 7-ELEVEn, and after one to two years of adjustment, I Retail will start to move out of Japan and expand in Asia.
"Our Gangnan Holdings has encountered a rival. A woman named Zhang Yu fled from Xiangkeng to the United States to set up a packaging factory."
On the day of leaving Tokyo, Nan Yi and Xian Weimin met.
"It's too early to talk about competitors. The domestic market for papermaking raw materials is not saturated and everyone is still unable to meet the demand." Nan Yi said without raising his head as he looked at the financial statements of Weimin Recycling Group.
"You mean just let it go?"
"Otherwise, do you still want to monopolize the domestic papermaking raw material channels?"
"I don't dare to think about monopoly, but no matter what, I have to limit the growth rate of my competitors. Do I want to give them a beating?"
"No hurry, let's wait and see." Nan Yi closed the report and raised his hand to clear the smoke from his nose. "In 1984, I wanted to punish Xian Jijie because he had evil ideas about Wenchangwei. Later... you know what happened in the village, so I gave up the idea of ​​punishing him.
Now six years have passed, and I don't know how his Jijie sanitary products factory is developing. No matter what, we should consider entering the sanitary products field. The consumption of sanitary napkins, napkins and toilet paper is not small. If we create a brand and make steady profits over a long period of time, the annual profit will be considerable. "
"I already had this idea. Take a look. This is the homework I did." Xian Weimin pointed to the filing cabinet next to him. "The third layer is all the information I looked up. You told me at the beginning of the year that this year's situation is not suitable for setting up a new enterprise in China, so I didn't mention it to you."
Nan Yi glanced at the filing cabinet and nodded, "We can do the preliminary work first, such as research and development. In the field of sanitary products in China, no one has stronger financial strength than us. Today's TV advertising is very effective. We don't need to grab the first-mover advantage. When the environment becomes clearer, we will work hard and quickly, bombard the market with advertising as soon as possible, and experience the feeling of hurting others with our own capital."
"Using your power to hurt others is not like your style." Xian Weimin said with a smile.
"As the environment changes, the way we do things must also change. From now on, I will not interfere in matters related to the regeneration of the people. Send me a financial report every quarter. I only look at how much money I can get. If you make a loss, I will break your legs."
"Haha, you only have 0.5% of the shares, how can you talk to the largest shareholder? If you make me unhappy, I will raise funds to dilute your shares completely."
"Blow it up as hard as you can. No matter how many shares I have, this year's dividends will be deposited into my personal account."
"Ha, it's no use telling me. You have to ask that American woman of yours whether she agrees or not." Xian Weimin teased.
"Don't mention it. It gives me a headache."
In the early investment of Nan's company, Nan Yi reserved some personal shares for himself. There was no dividend in the initial development stage. When the dividend could be distributed, Scarlett took over directly and said righteously that they were kept for Nan Youqiong, which left Nan Yi speechless.
"Let's not talk about it. Where will you be for the New Year this year? Peiyu and I will go to Xiangkeng."
"It's not up to me to decide where I spend the New Year. It depends on whether Liu Zhen is busy. When are you going to have a baby?"
"Let's talk about it later. I'm busy, Peiyu is busy too. Now is not the time for us to have a child."
"Pei Yu took over the Wu family's clothing business?"
"Yes, she is even busier than me, flying everywhere." Xian Weimin said helplessly: "Sometimes I really want to deliberately bankrupt her clothing business."
"Haha, don't think about it. You and I have been busy enough these past few years. Why don't we take some time to travel in the autumn next year? Let's take a motorcycle and head north through the uninhabited area of ​​the Gobi Desert."
"Sure, no problem for me."
"That's all for now. Let's go. See you next year." Nan Yi stood up, waved his hand and walked out.
Xian Weimin looked at Nan Yi's back and said silently, "See you next year."
When we flew from Tokyo to Xiangkeng, it was already the last day of November. Ruan Mei, who had just finished her guest appearance in the mainland, proposed to spend the New Year's Eve with Nan Yi.
It doesn’t matter what you celebrate, but the way you celebrate is similar to the previous three paragraphs.
It is said that over and over again, a third time, a spent bow cannot pierce the silk cloth of Lu. After the night in Xiangkeng, Nan Yi counted the days. He had just accompanied Gong Xue not long ago, so he would not go this time.
After returning to Coconut City, Nan Yi started to work a daily routine. He was at the Financial Building in the morning and at Longkunxia Village at noon. He ate with Su Meng every day. Occasionally, A Guang would ask Nan Yi to play volleyball. It was not just about playing together, but about finding someone to buy soda.
In December, the Spanish architect Santiago Calatrava, who was confirmed by Zhou Jina, came to Coconut City and conducted an on-site survey.
The issue of compensation for young crops on Ma Mingyu's side went relatively smoothly, but there were some problems with the relocation of graves. The villagers who wanted to relocate the graves said that they had to choose a day, and that a skilled Taoist priest had to do the selection. So they found several Taoist priests, and they started selecting an auspicious day for relocating the graves. They also performed various rituals and set up banquets, which was a lot of noise. Fortunately, nothing happened, and after spending a little more money, the matter was resolved.
On December 11, the day for moving coffins, all the graves without descendants built within the construction site were moved to the new cemetery. All the senior executives of Dream Town came out to burn incense for both the famous and anonymous graves.
After burning incense and offering sacrifices to three animals, the bulldozers of Jingjun Construction drove into the construction site in a mighty manner, flattened and compacted a piece of vacant land, and then turned off the engines. The groundbreaking ceremony has not been held yet and the leaders have not yet attended. It would seem a bit immature to start the work now.
The next day, December 12, was the day for breaking ground. The groundbreaking ceremony of Dream Town was held. Nan Yi invited a leader to write the four big characters "Dream Town".
After the groundbreaking ceremony ended and the leaders left, Nan Yi and Hu Guanghua, who came to watch the ceremony, walked on the construction site.
"Nan Yi, you have made such a big fuss without making any noise." Hu Guanghua said with emotion: "I was planning to build a landmark building for Qiongdao, but I didn't expect you to get there first."
"Brother Hu, don't lie in front of real people. I can guess what you are thinking. The five words "iconic building" mean that you won't be able to hold on for long even without our Dream Town project."
"Hahaha, you still understand me." Hu Guanghua nodded at Nan Yi and said, "All those landmark buildings are fake. I just used this as an excuse to ask for a piece of land. The large-scale development of Qiongdao is about to begin, and the value of the land will definitely skyrocket. Since you have also thought of this, why do you start construction now?"