Volume 2: The crown and the hat are all over the capital, and the spirit is full of energy and enter the foggy city Chapter 203 Fifteen Years
Subtitle of this chapter: Prediction is risky, be careful when showing off.
Of course you can do whatever you want if you have money.
The richest of the four gentlemen here is naturally George Baker. He is about to donate 6 million US dollars to Harvard University and 1 million US dollars to NYU.
In the more than ten years before his death in 1932, the "Miracle on Wall Street" donated a total of approximately 15 million US dollars!
Fifteen million dollars in the 1920s was enough to build a battlecruiser squadron during World War I. You know, the cost of building the Hood was only "only" six million pounds.
Seriously speaking, if you really want to set up a country for fun, this amount of money is enough to find a remote place in black Africa.
However, everyone knows that Yuan Yanshu was talking about the Dutch colonies in Southeast Asia, which was a strategic location rich in oil.
The Palembang oil field on the island of Sumatra alone is coveted.
By 1939, Palembang's annual oil production reached 4.7 million tons, and neon gold consumption was only 4.95 million tons. Moreover, the quality of Palembang's oil was second only to the British North Sea Brent Light Oil, and its sulfur content was so low that it could be burned directly.
No wonder the shameless Japanese Navy shamelessly moved southward.
"Gentlemen, I don't need to tell you that building a country in Southeast Asia is not a matter of money. BU...U...UT!"
Our Master Yuan said firmly: "But this is not impossible."
"Gentlemen, there is only one question before us, and that is..."
He deliberately lengthened his tone, took a puff of his cigar, whetted the appetite of the three people, and then emphasized: "Will we encounter another world war?"
To this question, gentlemen with a little insight in 1921 would answer, very likely.
However, the "world war" they imagined was a little different from the World War II that happened later. There was no fascist steel axis. They thought that the next opponent should be the more terrifying Bolshevik Red Alliance.
Whether it was supporting Germany's "Dawes Plan" and "Young Plan", or selling oil and "scrap steel" to Japan, it also included personally helping Chuan Lin Beitui to deal with the 3412 incident, and later encircling and suppressing the Spanish Republican government.
In the eyes of Western gentlemen, this is all fulfilling the obligation to oppose communism and prevent communism.
As for helping the Soviet Union carry out its first five-year plan, on the one hand, capitalists will sell their own noose as long as it is profitable, and on the other hand, after the Great Depression, no one cared so much.
"If your answer is absolutely impossible, then there is nothing to say."
"But if your answer is that it is possible, shouldn't we make some preparations in advance?"
"I dare to bet my entire fortune that if the next world war breaks out, the whole of Europe will be unable to take care of itself. By then, there will be a power vacuum in most of the colonies around the world..."
"That's our chance!"
“…”
The three of them were silent for a while, and Louis Baker was the first to ask, "Neo, how long do you think it will take before the next war?"
"Fifteen years!"
In the original timeline, World War II broke out in 1939 and the Pacific War began in 1941. So did our Master Yuan make a mistake or did he deliberately move the time forward to fool people?
No. The fifteen years he was referring to were 1936, when the Spanish Civil War began.
In fact, the Spanish Civil War was not the trigger for World War II, but at most a rehearsal. It did not have a big impact on the political landscape of Europe at the time, which also promoted the "friendship" between Temperance and the Hanged Man.
But this war fits the Western imagination of a "world war". On one side is a conservative group of Catholic landlords and officers, and on the other side is a radical left-wing alliance that wants to bring down all conservative forces.
Moreover, at that time, many people around the world, whether left or right, sincerely believed that this was the beginning of the communistization of Europe and even the world.
Master Yuan, who was well prepared, said straightforwardly: "Louis, you are also half an economist. And Mr. is an experienced economist. You should know what a business cycle is."
He turned to look at his nephew and said, "Shuzhi, the economic cycle is simply a phenomenon in which economic expansion and economic contraction occur periodically and alternately. A cycle has four stages: prosperity, recession, depression and recovery."
Yuan Yan turned around and said, "It is obvious that we are entering a period of prosperity. I also hope to be an optimist, so that I can believe that the world and America will prosper forever."
"But as an economist, I have to be pessimistic and judge that prosperity will eventually come to an end, and recession and depression are waiting for us ahead."
"So what do recession and depression bring? Revolution and war, of course!"
"We are in an increasingly interconnected global market. Recession and depression are no longer confined to one country or one region. Similarly, revolution and war will spread to all parts of the world like the Spanish flu a few years ago..."
"Neo..." George Baker suddenly interrupted him, frowning, "Like you said, you are an economist. So as an economist, there is no way for you to prevent... well, at least mitigate the impact of recession and depression?"
Of course there is a way, and it is ready-made.
As long as Master Yuan jumps from neoclassical liberalism to Keynes... these days, it really should be called the "Yuan Yanshu School."
But he had only one solution. If he were in the United States of America in 1921, he would advocate for a big government, and this government should also conduct macroeconomic regulation, such as abolishing the Federal Reserve and establishing a real central bank to implement monetary tightening policies, such as increasing the wages and benefits of all workers to expand domestic demand, and nationalizing key enterprises and departments...
The book is over! Still a BAD ENDING.
Even if the big capitalists and politicians in America suddenly developed a conscience and brains, and not only did not punish him, but instead obeyed his orders... our Master Yuan would not be willing to do it, because he is not a real international capitalist fighter.
“Hahaha…” Yuan Yan suddenly laughed and spread out her hands, saying, “Mr. Baker, don’t tell me that I don’t have a solution. Even if I did have a solution, I wouldn’t tell you. I don’t want to be the despised Cassandra!”
Cassandra was the princess of Troy. She was originally a priestess of Apollo, and thus gained the ability to predict the future. However, she was against the sun, so the sun could not reach her. The sun god cursed her and no one would believe her predictions.
I have to say that Chinese is so profound.
"Um...where was I?"
Huang Zongyi reminded him: "Uncle, you said fifteen years."
"Yes, fifteen years." Yuan Yan turned around and smiled at her nephew, saying, "Fifteen years later, you won't even be forty..."
