Volume 1 Chaos Comes Chapter 6 The Butterfly of History
I have a habit that I think is pretty good, which is to go to the playground to run several times a week. After all, high-intensity study does require some physical fitness.
A few days before I went home, I came to the plastic track again in the evening, adjusted my breathing, and ran slowly in the dim sunlight.
I learned the three-step breathing method during the physical education entrance exam for high school. Now, whenever I run, I automatically switch to this state.
About ten minutes later I noticed a solid-looking shadow on the football field greeting me.
"Isn't this Chengzi? Long time no see."
"Ah, hello, senior."
I once joined a football team in my freshman year, and that guy was my former captain. His name is Zhong Mengxun, he is from the history department, and he should be a senior this year. I heard that he was admitted to a famous teacher in the school, and now he is busy reading books every day.
The empty playground was wet, and there was no wind, but it was still cold. I put on the coat hanging on the climbing frame and walked over at his signal. The man in front of me had a strong physique and sturdy limbs, but his face still had a bookish air.
Savage in body, civilized in spirit. That's the only way I can describe him.
"How have you been lately, Chengzi? Are you busy?" He said to me while juggling the ball with one foot.
"It's pretty good. I've been a bit busy lately. Senior, why are you coming home so late?"
The school is now very empty and there is no need to queue to go anywhere.
"Yeah, I just finished my archaeology internship."
"Ah, is it at this time? I think I heard it was only available during summer vacation."
"Do you know there's a big pit to the south?"
I understand, he was treated as a coolie.
"Are you talking about the ruins from the Tang Dynasty? I read in the reports that they are from more than a thousand years ago."
"I'm not sure if it's from the Tang Dynasty, but we found Tang Dynasty coins inside. We're not sure when it was from. Do you know that outsiders are not allowed to approach the ruins now?"
"Ah? What happened?"
To be treated like this, they must have discovered some national treasure.
"Didn't you see that the armed police have surrounded that place these days? It is said that something extraordinary was discovered. We ordinary students are not qualified to get any information."
He hooked his foot and kicked the ball. The football flew smoothly to his head, jumped twice above, and then landed accurately on his palm.
"That pit... is so large, there should be a lot of things in it."
"It was actually just an entrance. We were only asked to clean the two compartments around the entrance, but deeper down there seemed to be a buried wall."
The heat generated by running in my body gradually dissipated, and the cold wind made me run a little nose. On the other side, Zhong Mengxun was only wearing a thin long-sleeved football jersey, but he was emitting heat all over.
“It’s just two cubicles and that’s how big it is.”
"Actually, we only dug out a corner of the wall, but... this is not the most amazing part." He lowered his voice unconsciously.
"I heard that the gate seems to be made of very strong metal. It is impossible for the Tang Dynasty to have such technology."
I felt like this had a bit of an urban legend vibe to it, but I still made a surprised expression to match his tone.
"Hey, let's not talk about this. I'll treat you to a barbecue. We haven't seen each other for a long time. Don't tell anyone else what I told you today..."
Barbecue is an interesting food. After a full meal, you will feel a little greasy, but after a while, you will want to eat it again. This cyclical appetite makes barbecue stalls a necessity in all cities, especially in the north.
My senior and I took the subway for one stop and arrived at a small shop we often go to. Usually we would scan a shared bicycle and ride there, but it was too cold to ride a bike now.
This barbecue restaurant is deep in the alley. There is only a small metal sign on the wall next to the door. If you don't come here specifically, you won't notice this place at all. Pushing aside the thermal curtain, I can see the messy terrazzo floor and light green wall skirt, and then my vision is blocked by the fine water droplets on my glasses.
The small room exuded a faint musty smell, struggling with the strong smell of charcoal and spices. We found a seat by the wall, and the boss in a big apron handed us a thermos from the shelf, which contained hot autumn pear paste.
"Two skewers of lamb kidneys, ten skewers of lamb, ten skewers of bone-in meat, ten skewers of chicken gizzards, and a grilled eggplant..."
Zhong Mengxun fiddled with the plastic menu and talked a lot to him.
"Two more bottles of Erguotou."
"Okay, what else do you want?"
"Senior...is this too much..."
"It's okay. I'll treat you. Let's have a good chat."
He is from Northeast China and is the type who is very easy to make friends with. In fact, when he speaks normally, he has no Northeast accent at all, but now that he is relaxed, it is revealed.
"What are you busy with recently? Are you doing research?"
“Yeah, we’re studying complex systems.”
"What the hell is that?"
"I can't explain what it means... Let me check."
Complex Systems, or Complexity, mainly studies the system structure and behavior at the macro level caused by the interaction between subsystems at the micro level.
This is the official interpretation of the Institute of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
"Well, to put it simply, complex systems believe that the individual components of the system will interact with each other to produce a wonderful overall behavior."
"For example, what kind of behavior?"
"For example, the human brain can generate intelligence through the interaction of each nerve cell, and ant colonies can generate decisions through the interaction of each individual. Human society is also a complex system..."
As he was talking, the boss came over with a handful of steaming meat in his hand. The barbecued meat garnished with cumin was particularly tempting.
"Sprinkle the chili powder on the table yourself."
"So are you guys paying special attention to...any specific behaviors or something? Just studying abstract theories?"
He spoke as he chewed the crispy bones, making a crunching sound in his mouth.
"I am currently studying two specific behaviors: chaos and self-organization. They are widely present in nature and are related to each other."
There was a brief silence. Zhong Mengxun didn't seem to understand what I said. After thinking for a moment, he grabbed the lamb kidney and took a bite.
"Senior, I have a question for you."
"Hmm? Go ahead!"
"How much of a role do you think the butterfly effect plays in the course of human history?"
The butterfly effect is actually a popular but inaccurate metaphor for chaos theory. It only describes the uncertainty of chaotic results, but does not say that the trajectory of chaos is still within a range.
"The butterfly effect... seems to mean that small things affect the overall situation?"
"Yes... I wonder if there is an example of a chain of random events that ended up changing the course of history in a big way."
“That’s a lot of history.”
The senior stopped chewing, probably thinking of examples.
"In the late Ming Dynasty, there was a man named Mao Yujian. He was very afraid of his wife, but he couldn't control his lower body."
He started telling stories, and during the breaks between football team practices during my freshman year, I loved listening to him talk about the past and present. It gave me a sense of being there.
"Once he brought his concubine home, and his wife caught him in the act. She made him kneel for a day and a night as punishment. The man held a grudge and wanted to find someone to vent his anger on, but he didn't dare to vent it on his wife.
He thought carefully, why did his wife come back so soon? It was because of the Ming Dynasty's postal system.
The more he thought about it, the angrier he became. Considering that so many people consumed a lot of tax revenue, he and Liu Mao submitted a petition to Chongzhen, suggesting that the post stations be abolished.
Then Chongzhen agreed, and hundreds of thousands of people in the Ming Dynasty lost their jobs, including a horse breeder named Li Zicheng. "
I nodded and was about to make a comment when he started talking again.
"There are countless other coincidences, such as the heavy rain at the end of the Qin Dynasty, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, the 9/11 incident... Perhaps the fact that we eat barbecue has already affected the course of history."
“So that’s how it is…”
"But we can't generalize. The Annales School categorizes the time scale in historical research into long time, medium time, and short time.
In the long term, the influence of nature plays a major role; in the medium term, the influence of the social development stage plays a major role; in the short term, it is individuals or random events. Braudel compared the influence of individuals in the short term to the waves in the ocean of history.
This is another reason why I really like chatting with seniors. They can explain some social science principles from a small perspective, and I can learn something.
“Although major turning points in history are brought about by key individuals, social and technological conditions provide the material basis and stage for them, limiting the extent to which the turning points occur.
But on the other hand, with the technical conditions, it is people who play a key role..."
When we left the barbecue stall, the subway had stopped running. We two men, who had drunk a little too much, floated back to school while talking loudly on the cold street. Alcohol makes people detach from reality, and we can leave next year's troubles to next year.
The city was very quiet after the lights went out. The dead branches on the street tried to poke a hole in the sky, but they only made a few tiny holes, through which the light from the sky shone through.
The stars are lined up in the deep night, and the moon has not yet set under the solitary lamp on the rock.
