The second volume is full of glory and splendor in the capital, and the spirit is full of vitality in the foggy city. Chapter 247 Yuan's Plan
The subtitle of this chapter: Be like Jia Yueting and owe debts worth hundreds of billions.
Economists have been summarizing the experience of the last crisis and then preparing for the next one.
Our great economist Yuan is looking forward to the next crisis.
Without the Great Depression, there would most likely be no World War II ; in fact, even if there was a Great Depression, World War II would not necessarily break out.
All major historical events are inevitable, but their contingency must also be taken into account.
But, but, but... For Master Yuan, a world without World War II is just too unacceptable!
For the sake of World War II , and for the Great Depression that triggered World War II, it’s better not to pretend...
Wait a minute, Yuan Yanshu is like "If you don't pretend to be cool, you will die." This kind of pretense is not working, can you try another one?
"Thank you for your question, Dr. Holland." So he was not angry, but smiled at the questioner who was deliberately trying to make things difficult for him.
"Gentlemen, although the gold standard is not the subject of my doctoral thesis, as economists we must also pay attention to current events ."
"The gold standard and war debts are naturally the two most pressing economic issues of the moment..."
“Snap!”
Our Master Yuan lit a cigar, took the opportunity to smoke to organize his thoughts, and then slowly said:
"Let's talk about the gold standard first. Gentlemen, in my opinion, we really have no other choice but to rebuild an international monetary settlement system based on gold..."
"The United States is probably the only country in the world that can stick to the gold standard. Perhaps Britain and France can also do it, if they can grit their teeth and allow the pound and franc to depreciate significantly..."
"It's impossible for other countries to come up with that much gold as a reserve for the currencies they issue. Especially for Germany, this involves another big problem - war debts and reparations..."
"We all know that the Germans are nearly bankrupt, and the Deutsche Mark is even more outrageous. The German government can't even afford to buy bread, let alone pay war reparations..."
"If the Weimar Republic continues to be in such chaos, we might wake up one day and read in the morning paper that the Hohenzollern dynasty has been restored. This is good news for me. After all, I am a member of the Junker noble group of His Majesty William II, a yellow knight!"
“Hahahaha… bang bang bang… hahahaha…”
Hearing the Junker knight's self-deprecating remarks, everyone couldn't help but clap and laugh.
"But even more terrifying news is that the Weimar Republic has become... the Weimar Soviet!"
As soon as they heard the word "Soviet", the members of the American Economic Association stopped laughing and immediately looked worried.
For capitalist economists, there is no word more beloved than Soviet... that terrible word.
Just imagine, if the whole world is covered by red flags, where can they work as economists?
So Yuan Yan suddenly raised her voice and said, "I think this is a scene that everyone here, as well as economists in the United States and around the world... well, people who advocate for justice, don't want to see..."
"The problem now is that there is a very dangerous vicious cycle on both sides of the Atlantic. Britain and France owe us money, and Germany owes Britain and France money. If Germany doesn't pay back, it means we can't get the money from Britain and France..."
"If Germany really becomes communist like the Soviet Union and is no longer willing to bear the war reparations for the European War, the British and French will either fight them again or..."
Yuan Yan sighed suddenly, took a puff of cigarette, shrugged her shoulders and said nothing more.
But everyone present was an economist, so they understood what he meant. That is, Niu Niu and Gao Lu could only follow in the footsteps of Mao Zi and Hans.
How loving it is...that horrible scene!
The mere thought of an English Soviet or a French Soviet was enough to make one shudder. Just a moment ago, everyone was just sitting there in despair, but now they were all facing a formidable enemy.
The temperature here dropped to zero in an instant, even coughs froze in everyone's throats, and the room suddenly became silent.
“Cough cough cough…”
Our Master Yuan broke the silence with a cough. He looked around, playing with the cigar in his hand, and said loudly: "So what we can do is..."
He paused, raised his right hand holding the cigar and made an inviting gesture to everyone.
The professors and doctors present all said in unison, like elementary school students: "Lend money to the Germans!"
"Pa pa pa..." Yuan Yanshu raised her hands exaggeratedly and clapped them high in the air, saying, "BRAVO!"
Confucius said: If you owe ten thousand yuan, someone will force you to jump off the building; if you owe one hundred million yuan, someone will be afraid that you will jump off the building.
After World War I, Hans was the grandson (zei) who owed 100 million, so don't be surprised why Americans used the Dawes Plan to allow the three Germans to rise again, and Britain and France just sat back and watched.
He turned to the next AEA president and said, "Dr. Holland, I think you understand my answer now."
"First of all, the first thing we need to do is to restore the international monetary settlement system. No matter how we do it, we must do it as quickly as possible..."
Master Yuan would never propose any "gold exchange standard" because this thing is inherently incompatible with the Austrian School, and fixed exchange rates are the biggest enemy of liberal economists.
Austrian economists such as Mises and Hayek would soon realize at the Geneva Conference the following year that this fractional reserve, fixed exchange rate gold standard was a recipe for disaster. They predicted that under this gold exchange standard, an economic crisis would sooner or later occur.
"Secondly, we have to borrow money from Germany, a massive amount. Germany needs loans from us to recover its economy. Then it can repay the reparations owed to Britain and France. Britain and France will use the large reparations paid by Germany to repay the debts owed to the United States during the war. This creates a boom-and-bust cycle."
In the original timeline, after the Dawes Plan was implemented in 1924, US dollars flooded the European financial market: thus, the US dollar not only restored the European economy, but also manipulated the European economic market.
And on this timeline, because our Master Yuan proposed large-scale financial aid to Germany in front of economists in 1921, this plan was later called the "Yuan Plan" by some people, especially in the Serbian economics community.
So Yuan Yanshu became a great man in Serbia that the German people should be grateful to, and of course, the American people should also thank him.
"Finally..." He smiled meaningfully at everyone present and said, "All the roads built by the ancient Romans will lead to New York where we are!"
