The second volume is full of glory and splendor in the capital, and the spirit is full of vitality in the foggy city. Chapter 203: Fifteen Years
Subtitle of this chapter: Prediction is risky, be careful when showing off.
Of course you can do whatever you want if you have money.
The richest of the four gentlemen here is naturally George Baker. He is about to donate $6 million to Harvard University and $1 million to NYU.
In the more than ten years before his death in 1932, the "Miracle on Wall Street" donated a total of approximately 15 million US dollars!
Fifteen million dollars in the 1920s was enough to build a fleet of battlecruisers during World War I. Remember, the Hood cost only six million pounds.
To be honest, if you really want to set up a country for fun, this amount of money is enough to find a remote place in black Africa.
However, everyone knew that Yuan Yanshu was talking about the Dutch colonies in Southeast Asia, which was a strategic location with abundant wealth.
The Palembang oil field on the island of Sumatra alone is mouth-watering.
By 1939, Palembang's annual oil production reached 4.7 million tons, while neon gold consumption was only 4.95 million tons. Furthermore, Palembang's oil was second only to British North Sea Brent Light, with a sulfur content so low that it could be burned directly.
No wonder the shameless Japanese Navy shamelessly marched south.
"Gentlemen, I don't need to tell you that establishing a nation in Southeast Asia is not just about money. BU...U...UT!"
Our Master Yuan said firmly: "But this is not impossible."
"Gentlemen, we have but one question before us, and that is..."
He deliberately lengthened his tone, took another drag on his cigar, whetting the appetites of the three, and then asked more emphatically, "Will we encounter another world war?"
To this question, gentlemen with a little insight in 1921 would answer, very likely.
However, the "world war" they imagined was a little different from the later World War II. There was no fascist Axis of Steel. They believed that the next opponent would be the more terrifying Bolshevik Red Alliance.
Whether it was supporting Germany's "Dawes Plan" and "Young Plan", or selling oil and "scrap steel " to Japan, it also included personally helping Chuan Lin Beitui to deal with the 3412 incident, and later encircling the Spanish Republican government.
In the eyes of Western gentlemen, this is all fulfilling the obligation to oppose communism and prevent communism.
As for helping the Soviet Union carry out its first five-year plan, firstly, it was the nature of capitalists to sell their own noose as long as it was profitable, and secondly, after the Great Depression, no one cared about that anymore.
"If your answer is absolutely impossible, then there's nothing to say."
"But if your answer is yes, shouldn't we make some preparations in advance?"
"I'd bet my entire fortune that if the next world war breaks out, all of Europe will be overwhelmed. By then, a power vacuum will exist in most of the world's colonies..."
"That's our chance!"
“…”
The three of them were silent for a while, and Louis Baker was the first to ask, "Neo, how long do you think it will take until the next war?"
"Fifteen years!"
In the original timeline, World War II broke out in 1939 and the Pacific War began in 1941. So did our Master Yuan make a mistake or did he deliberately move the time forward to fool people?
No. The fifteen years he was referring to were 1936, when the Spanish Civil War began.
In reality, the Spanish Civil War wasn't the catalyst for World War II; it was at most a dress rehearsal. It didn't significantly impact the political landscape of Europe at the time, which ultimately fostered the "friendship" between Temperance and the Hanged Man.
However, this war fits the Western imagination of a "world war." On one side is a conservative group of landowners and officers who believe in Catholicism, and on the other side is a radical left-wing alliance that wants to overthrow all conservative forces.
Moreover, at that time, many people around the world, whether left or right, sincerely believed that this was the beginning of the communistization of Europe and even the world.
Master Yuan, who had been well prepared, said very straightforwardly, "Louis, you are also half an economist. And Mr. Baker is an experienced economist. You should know what a business cycle is."
He turned to look at his nephew and said, "Shouzhi, the economic cycle is simply a phenomenon in which economic expansion and economic contraction occur periodically, alternating and repeating. A cycle has four stages: prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery."
Yuan Yan suddenly turned around and said, "It's obvious that we are entering a period of prosperity. I also hope to be an optimist, so that I can believe that the world and America can prosper forever."
"But as an economist, I have to be pessimistic and conclude that prosperity will eventually come to an end, and recession and depression are waiting for us ahead."
"So what do recessions and depressions bring? Revolution and war, of course!"
"We are now in an increasingly interconnected global market. Recessions and depressions are no longer confined to one country or region. Similarly, revolutions and wars will spread across the world, just like the Spanish flu did a few years ago..."
"Neo..." George Baker suddenly interrupted him, frowning. "Like you said, you're an economist. So there's nothing you, as an economist, can do to prevent... well, at least mitigate the effects of recessions and depressions?"
Of course there , and it’s ready-made.
As long as Master Yuan jumps from neoclassical liberalism to Keynes... these days, it really should be called the "Yuan Yanshu School".
But he had only one solution. If he were in the United States in 1921, he would have advocated for a big government, a government that would have exercised macroeconomic regulation, such as abolishing the Federal Reserve and establishing a true central bank to implement monetary tightening, increasing wages and benefits for all workers to expand domestic demand, or nationalizing key enterprises and sectors...
The book is over! Still a bad ending.
Even if the big capitalists and politicians in America suddenly developed a conscience and brains, and instead of punishing him, they obeyed his orders... our Master Yuan would not be willing to do it, because he is not a real international capitalist fighter.
"Hahaha..." Yuan Yan suddenly laughed and spread her hands, saying, "Mr. Baker, don't tell me I don't have a solution. Even if I did, I wouldn't tell you. I don't want to be the despised Cassandra!"
Cassandra was a princess of Troy. She was originally a priestess of Apollo, which gave her the ability to predict the future. However, she was against the sun, so the sun could not reach her. The sun god cursed her and no one would believe her predictions.
I have to say that Chinese is so profound and extensive.
"Um...where was I?"
Huang Zongyi reminded him: "Uncle, you said fifteen years."
"Yes, fifteen years." Yuan Yan turned around and smiled at her nephew, saying, "Fifteen years from now, you won't even be forty..."
