Spring Thunder Chapter 0197 Liu·Economist·Zhen
"Have you finished reading Childhood?"
After dinner, Liu Zhen washed the dishes, took a copy of "Pride and Prejudice" and sat next to Nan Yi.
"I've finished reading it."
"Then why don't you read In the World?" Liu Zhen pouted, pointing to the book Lysenko written by Gao Hansheng in Nan Yi's hand. "What's so good about this? Hasn't Lysenko been completely discredited?"
"Everyone has his strengths and weaknesses. We cannot say that his strengths are negated just because he is denied. At least his theory of increasing grain production can be learned from."
"Don't talk nonsense. Lysenko proposed the concept of vernalization and established the theory of stage development. He also had unique insights in genetics and established the Michurin School of Genetics.
In agricultural production, many new technologies have been invented and promoted, improving yield and quality.
During World War II, he also studied potatoes and invented the method of using the top buds as seed potatoes and the rest for food, thus alleviating food shortages.
In terms of biological evolution, he also proposed a new insight into species formation.
Apart from politics, Lysenko can be regarded as a true agricultural expert and great scientist. "
"Oh, I don't really understand. I was not born with the gene for farming."
"It's okay. Just study finance. Did your National Policy Trust make any money?"
"You don't want to ask about my work, do you?"
"I didn't ask, I just asked casually. If you can tell me, tell me. If you can't tell me, don't tell me."
"I made a lot of money."
"oh."
Nan Yi responded and turned his attention back to the book.
Liu Zhen twisted her body, changed her sitting position, and naturally leaned her head on Nan Yi's shoulder, holding the book in her hand and concentrating on reading.
After reading for an hour, they both closed the book at the same time.
“Can your household registration be transferred?”
"We can move, to Wenchangwei?"
"Yes, my household registration is going to be moved, and it's too inconvenient for me to travel now."
"Oh, I'll go to the office and ask tomorrow." Liu Zhen moved her body, leaned in Nan Yi's arms, and looked up at him, "Nan Yi, are you leaving again?"
"I can stay for a few more days."
"I don't even see you a few times a year. No, I'm going to quit my job and follow you."
"It's not time yet, just go to work quietly."
"Okay, but you have to come to Beijing to see me more often." Liu Zhen looked at Nan Yi with anticipation.
"I'll try my best. Two restaurants need two chefs. Without a good chef, you can't run a restaurant."
"Why, aren't these two restaurants your props for digging a hole?"
"What kind of family dares to use two restaurants as props? As for me, I have to use them as props and make money from them, so the chef is particularly important."
"Where can you find one? A good cook never has to worry about food. He has a high status in the company, can take some leftovers home, and has medical insurance and a pension. How much can you pay to poach him?"
"Oh, what conditions? Let me tell you, if we are going to recruit someone, we will definitely recruit a forty-year-old master who is in the prime of life. Assuming he retires at the age of sixty and lives to ninety, he can receive a pension for thirty years.
I don't need to calculate it for thirty years, I will just calculate it forty years, and I don't need to calculate it for a few dozen a month, I will just calculate it for two hundred, and forty years it will be 96,000. If he comes to work, I will pay him this money monthly, and it will be paid off in five years."
"You have solved their worries, but what if they become jealous of your good business? Human desires are endless."
"You know all this, how could I not know?
This is just the condition I offer to recruit people. If they work for a year or two, I can give them dividends, not to mention increasing their salaries.
Not only does he get dividends while he is working, but if he can bring out a few apprentices, as long as the apprentices can stand on their own, and train one apprentice, he can get a dividend, and the number of apprentices can be divided into several dividends. "
"From what you said, this means you want to do something big? Didn't you say you have no interest in the restaurant industry?"
"Did I say that? Why don't I remember?"
"Yes, in 1978, in the small state-owned restaurant behind the school."
"Oh, you misunderstood. It's not that I'm not interested in the catering industry, but I'm not interested in opening ordinary restaurants. I'm still interested in high-end restaurants.
The restaurant I want to open will focus on the concepts of green, health and novelty. The things that can be eaten elsewhere will be better here, and the things that cannot be eaten elsewhere will be available here.
Of course, I'm not talking about some rare game, but delicacies."
"I understand. The restaurant is still a support for the agricultural plan." Liu Zhen nodded and said.
"Almost. It's part of the plan."
"Vision?"
"It won't be too far away. We will have to prepare to implement it in five or six years. President Reagan of the United States is implementing a loose fiscal policy, and Federal Reserve Chairman Paul is implementing a strict anti-inflationary tight monetary policy, which will further strengthen the US dollar.
The United States' commodity exports will naturally be hit, and the White House will certainly face strong demands from Congress to implement trade restrictions.
Once the US dollar becomes strong, several European countries and Japan will certainly take corresponding measures to deal with the rise of speculation in the foreign exchange market and trade protectionism, and the countries will definitely reach a consensus on exchange rate coordination.
I think it won’t be long before several countries sit down and sign an agreement on exchange rates.”
"I know this. I have been studying the future trend of international currency exchange rates recently. According to my analysis, the Japanese yen and the mark will definitely appreciate in the near future, while the Korean won will depreciate.
In a fair agreement, the alligators in Washington and Wall Street must have evil intentions.
Once the exchange rate agreement is signed, Japan's economy will certainly be turbulent, but I have a question mark about Germany's economy."
"Why do you think Japan's economy will be turbulent, while Germany's is a question mark?"
"Test me?" Liu Zhen said with a smile.
“Half test, half asking for advice.”
"Then let me tell you." Liu Zhen straightened up, "Since last year, Japan has finally overcome the negative impact of the second oil crisis, and the economic growth rate has slightly rebounded.
However, Japan's CPI [Consumer Price Index] is relatively stable, with the annual price increase basically remaining within 2%, with medium-speed growth and stable prices.
Japan's economy can be said to be quite prosperous, and its people's happiness index can be said to be higher than that of China.
Japan's current account surplus has continued to rise slightly in recent years, with the surplus ratio to GDP rising from 2.2% to 3.1%.
The huge trade surplus is not only criticized by trading partners, but also not a good thing in the eyes of the Japanese themselves. It may lead to blockades and retaliation from other countries and trigger threats of trade protectionism.
Precisely because of this consideration, the Japanese urgently need the yen to appreciate.
The appreciation of the yen will affect Japan's trade surplus in the short term, and may even lead to a deficit. However, as long as subsequent strategies are implemented properly, Japan can smoothly overcome this crisis.
Strategy is important, but I don’t think Japan can implement the most appropriate strategy. This is determined by Japan’s own system. Japan’s biggest failure is the bureaucratic barriers of its own system.
I expect that Japan will not adopt the best combination of fiscal and monetary policies on the demand side, nor will it promote structural reform measures to support the supply side.
Because this will harm the interests of the vested interests, and who are the vested interests in Japan, Nan Yi, do you know?"
"Well, go on."
"When the yen appreciates, exports will be affected. On the one hand, Japanese capital will expand , or in other words, they will take advantage of the yen's value to carry out global capital allocation;
On the one hand, Japan will certainly carry out economic structural adjustments. I guess it will expand domestic demand by improving social capital, expanding consumption, adjusting taxes accordingly, and opening its doors.
However, with the promotion of some people with ulterior motives, Japan's structural reforms to expand domestic demand will definitely go astray. I estimate that they will focus on finance and continuously increase the money supply to expand domestic demand.
Japan's stock market and property market will usher in unprecedented rapid growth, which means the formation of an economic bubble.
The money supply increases, but this money will not flow into equipment investment or iteration, nor will it be used for personal consumption in Japan;
The appreciation of the Japanese yen will prompt more Japanese to travel abroad, and many Japanese will go abroad to buy all kinds of luxury goods.
A large amount of money will flow into the asset market, which will cause a sharp inflation in asset prices. The prices of the stock market and real estate market that I mentioned earlier will both inflate sharply.
Land prices in Japan, especially in Tokyo, will rise rapidly.
Nan Yi, you actually have already predicted this, right? Otherwise, since your funds are so tight, you still let a large amount of funds stay in Tokyo. These funds are going to flow into real estate, right? "
Nan Yi nodded and said, "Yes, I have foreseen that the stock market and property prices in Japan will rise sharply. The nearly 200 million US dollars left in Tokyo will be used to buy land and buildings.
As you said, in order to stimulate domestic demand , Japan will certainly loosen its monetary policy, and may loosen consumer loans and home purchase loans to an incredible extent.
Once this conjecture comes true, the land and real estate worth 200 million US dollars can be expanded to 20 billion or even hundreds of billions of US dollars through snowballing or single-cell fission. "
"Hundreds of billions are unlikely. Chinese capital can be withdrawn smoothly. You might be caught as a scapegoat or a chicken to scare the monkeys."
"I know, that's why I made a lot of arrangements, including the Japaneseization of Ikeda Company. Moreover, in the future, the funds seized from Japan will not be withdrawn, but part of the funds will be transferred out of Japan in the form of investment.
Of course, most of the funds will be used to invest in Japan. Ikeda Corporation is a company with a sense of social responsibility and will take it as its mission to save the Japanese economy. "
"Hehehe, you want to cultivate the country in Japan?"
"Japan has many good small companies. Although they are not large in scale, they are the best in a certain field. I call them hidden champions.
I am very interested in investing in these companies.
Okay, keep going, I want to hear more of your ideas."
