Chapter 60: Rescue from Bayes’ Theorem!
Luo Yao said as he organized his thoughts, "In order to increase traffic, major e-commerce platforms will definitely promote the top anchors, which results in traffic forming an inverted pyramid shape."
"If we want to diversify traffic to our local brands, we need to do something to stimulate it."
Fu Daobin remained silent on the other end of the phone.
The government rarely intervenes in market behavior, and taking action now is completely out of necessity.
What is the stimulation that Luo Yao mentioned?
Will the government force top anchors to promote domestic products?
"Luo Yao, I have to remind you that our local brand isn't well-known. It's going to be very difficult to rely on sympathy to gain acceptance."
Luo Yao paused and said, "If relying on sympathy could win, local brands wouldn't have ended up like this."
"Currently, we still have to rely on sympathy to develop plans, and our IQ may be lower than that of the average person."
Fu Daobin held the phone, feeling awkward.
Fortunately, he did not propose this plan, otherwise his impression would probably plummet.
"Right now, what we're trying to do is do nothing."
Fu Daobin was stunned.
The situation is so urgent, yet he's doing nothing? Is Luo Yao's IQ so high that he's a bit out of touch with the real world?
What happens if the factory can’t pay wages? What happens if workers lose their jobs?
"Of course this is only on the surface."
"In fact, the authorities need to first stabilize businesses and factories and urge them not to act rashly. If they have time now, they should take inventory of their goods."
Fu Daobin frowned: "Is that all?"
"What's the point of them taking inventory now? I guess no one is in the mood for it."
"That's why I said this is a bit complicated to handle. I need a list of the quantity of their goods. I wonder if the authorities can provide it?"
Hey! This guy thinks the authorities can't even ask everyone to be more careful with their goods, right?
"That's easy to do, but I'm worried that it might give people the impression that we're taking over all the goods. If we can't resolve the issue, the government will be heavily blamed."
Luo Yao had actually anticipated what Fu Daobin was going to say. Now that he understood Fu Daobin's intention, he said, "Then don't do anything for now. Wait for my news."
After saying that, Luo Yao was too lazy to talk any more nonsense and hung up the phone.
Is that it?
Fu Daobin shook his head helplessly into the phone, but he had no choice but to go to the expert team first to see if they had any ideas.
Luo Yao left his office and gathered the geniuses who were still filled with indignation.
"There's something I need everyone to handle. I need some data. Can you help me compile it?"
"What data, boss?" Wang Ye responded actively.
"There are two main topics of discussion on Weibo right now: one is whether our companies are innocent, and the other is whether there are problems with China. I need data on both of these."
Wang Ye's smile froze on his face. "Boss, this data is hard to compile. Do you think we should contact Weibo?"
"No need to go through so much trouble. I can just write a crawler to do the statistics and give you the results in half an hour." Sergei casually shook the golden hair in front of his forehead, which made Wang Ye look particularly unhappy.
"Isn't crawling illegal? If someone sues you, do you want the boss to bail you out?"
Sergey automatically blocked Wang Ye's words as he sat in front of the computer. Instead, Adra explained, "No, the comments made by users are public. We only crawl public data and are not suspected of illegally invading computer information systems, so there's nothing wrong."
Everyone in Shannon Laboratory gathered around Sergey, watching him work quickly on the computer.
"Sergey's crawler software is ready-made. He just needs to modify a few data." Adra explained as he looked at it.
The data stream on the computer screen passed through their eyes like a flying bird. In less than half an hour, Sergei had completed the task assigned by Luo Yao.
"Boss, I have the data you requested."
"55% of respondents agreed that there were no problems with our company, while 35% agreed that there were no problems with the U.S. side."
"What do you want us to do now?"
Luo Yao looked at the two key data on Sergei's screen and said slowly, "Bayes' Theorem."
While Wang Ye was still in a daze, everyone else, including Wu Tianming, reacted.
"Are you trying to use Bayes' theorem to calculate how many people will support our company?"
Luo Yao nodded with satisfaction.
It turns out that working with smart people requires much less explanation.
"I need detailed data to determine what course of action we should take next."
"That's easy, just wait, the data will be out soon!"
Sergei began tapping on the keyboard, and vertical lines of words immediately appeared on his computer screen.
P(A) is the prior probability that our company has no problems, that is, the probability of agreeing that our company has no problems, which is equal to 55% or 0.55.
P(B|A) is the probability of agreeing that the company has no problems, given that our company has no problems. It is also equal to 55% or 0.55.
P(B) is the probability of event B, that is, the probability of agreeing that our company is innocent or that the Ugly Country is innocent.
[P(B)=P(B∣A)·P(A)+P(B∣-A)·P(-A)】
[P(B)=0.55·0.55+0.35·0.45=0.3025+0.1575=0.46]
[Bayes' theorem calculates the probability value P(A|B) of supporting our local enterprises: P(A|B) = 0.460.55·0.55≈0.6652]
“66.52% of people will support our local enterprises!”
After seeing the result, Luo Yao was somewhat dissatisfied.
He knows that the market for local brands is not big, but what he doesn't understand is that when others are slandering local brands, more than 30% of people are still willing to believe in foreign brands.
He believed in the math, and he believed that what they were going to do next could only be done by those 66.52%.
"That's more than half, so can we take action now?" Wu Tianming looked at Luo Yao.
Luo Yao was dissatisfied , but he said without any expression on his face, "Well, everyone, please express your dissatisfaction with the Ugly Country on various social media platforms first."
"Our discontent?"
"For example, what you discussed before, send it out first to prevent everyone's dissatisfaction with the Ugly Country from getting depressed."
"Be careful not to simply say there's something wrong with the other party. It's better to provide evidence, such as the time when each incident occurred or how it relates to the Xizhi incident."
"I know this! I don't care what Bayes' theorem is. If you say we need to go to the Ugly Country, I can definitely complete the task! I'm not good at math, but I'm okay at history! Just wait!" Wang Ye said as he sat down at a computer, opened Weibo, and started the task.
Others also sat down and expressed their views on various platforms.
In the past, they couldn't find an opportunity to complain about the Ugly Country, but now with Luo Yao's support, they have no worries at all.
Following Luo Yao's request, they clearly listed the evidence on the Internet as to why they felt there was something wrong with the Ugly Country.
It quickly received a lot of likes.
With the praise of netizens, the people in the laboratory became more and more enthusiastic, and their enthusiasm was the same as when they participated in the Pangu EDA test before.
Luo Yao did not supervise their work because he knew that based on the IQ of this group of people, the masses would easily regard them as leaders who expressed their opinions.
This is exactly the effect he wants.
It doesn’t matter if they don’t have top anchors to help them, they can create people with the right to speak!
While the people in the laboratory were busy, Luo Yao called Fu Daobin.
Fu Daobin was discussing the next steps with the experts. Seeing that it was Luo Yao calling, he couldn't wait to say, "Luo Yao, listen to me first. Our experts have calculated the probability of the public supporting our local enterprises..."
"66.52%."
Fu Daobin was a little surprised that Luo Yao had also calculated this value. They calculated it by looking for data from Weibo. Where did Luo Yao get the data?
"Now we can allow those factories and businesses to start live streaming themselves."
Before Fu Daobin could ask, Luo Yao had already told him the next steps.
"They're doing their own livestreaming? If they don't have traffic, isn't that a waste of effort?"
"Luo Yao, please listen to the opinions of our experts."
"Now, we're going to go on the evening news and ask everyone to buy these factories' products, and then..."
"No." Luo Yao knew the drawbacks of this plan without waiting for Fu Daobin to finish.
"The monetization path is too long, traffic is easily lost in the middle, and in the end, it's still just exploiting sympathy, so the conversion rate won't be very high."
"Director Fu, do you believe me?"
"Believe it." Fu Daobin said subconsciously in response to Luo Yao's sudden question.
If you don’t trust people with an IQ of 300, who else can you trust?
"Okay, so are daily necessities the only ones that can't find a market?"
"Almost. In the semiconductor sector, Huaji's marketing staff helped to establish connections and collaborate with domestic companies."
After hearing this, Luo Yao quickly said, "Then let's find three manufacturers willing to do a livestream. They don't need to prepare anything. All they need to do is have the factory manager explain the current situation in front of the camera. Don't exaggerate, just be straightforward."
"Okay, I'll try."
An hour later, Fu Daobin sent Luo Yao the addresses of three factory live broadcast rooms.
Luo Yao gave the address to the people in Shannon Lab and asked them to use empathy to lead people on the social platform into the live broadcast room.
Most of the people in Shannon's laboratory had never done anything like this before, and they looked at each other in confusion.
Empathy?
It seems that this group of geniuses all lack this thing.
Fortunately, Wang Ye was smart in this regard. He threw the live broadcast link into the comments he posted, and added the comment "Today's them will be tomorrow's you and me." Then many netizens who had previously agreed with his views entered the live broadcast room out of curiosity.
The director of the 68 Daily Chemical Factory was a little old man with glasses. After receiving a call from above, he finally found someone in the factory to start the live broadcast.
The old man didn't believe that starting a live broadcast would be of any help to the factory, but he was willing to cooperate with the authorities. If the authorities asked him to do it, he would do it.
Following the instructions, he sat in the silent factory and talked to the empty live broadcast room about what was on his mind.
"Our factory used to be very busy, shipping around 700 tons a day. But now people don't want our products anymore, saying they're of poor quality. The warehouse is overflowing with our products, and the machines and workers have stopped working. We may have to sell this place soon, hoping to pay everyone's wages by then."
There was a hint of warmth in the old man's eyes. He stared at the screen of his mobile phone in a trance. Suddenly, he found words popping up on the screen.
[Sell it? Why sell it? We can support you!]
"This damn ugly country cooperates with us when they need us, and kicks us out when they don't! I can't stand this! From today on, my family won't buy foreign products anymore! Please tell me where to put your products!"
If these factories fail, how many workers will lose their jobs? Our future won't be much better! Since they were able to export before, their products must be of good quality! Buy them!
[Don't you manufacture household chemicals? I'm short of laundry detergent at home. Do you have any?]
Finally, a manufacturer is starting a livestream! "Uncle! Hurry up and show off your product! I'll get someone to the studio!"
[Yes, I know you were deliberately framed! Don't panic! We're still here!]
We have far more people than the Ugly Country! Don't think we're outnumbered! Uncle, hurry up and put your stuff on the shelves! Today we'll show you our spending power!
The old man scanned the words on the screen and called out to the people in the factory in a panic, "Come quickly! Someone wants to buy our stuff! Who can put the merchandise on the shelves?"
His voice spread far away in the silent factory. After hearing the director's call, the people in the factory hurried over. At the old man's signal, they found that the number of people in the live broadcast room was increasing.
From the initial dozens of people to ten thousand and thirty thousand people.
Netizens came to the live broadcast room due to the spontaneous promotion of Shannon Laboratory or people in the live broadcast room.
The people in the factory have not read much. They can watch beautiful women on live broadcasts, but they don’t know how to put products on the shelves in the live broadcast room. The old man quickly called the person who contacted him.
When the other party heard that there were already more than 30,000 people in the live broadcast room who wanted the products of Factory 68, his mind went blank in surprise.
At the old man's urging, the other party quickly found someone who would put the product on the shelves in the live broadcast room to explain to the old man, and then trotted all the way to the conference room where Fu Daobin was.
Bang!
The door to the conference room was flung open. Fu Daobin turned around and saw the person coming in. He asked nervously, "What's wrong?"
"Director Fu, there are over 30,000 netizens visiting the Liuba Factory's livestream, and they're eager to buy Liuba's products!"
Fu Daobin's eyes widened slightly, and he asked anxiously, "Xiao Huang, are you serious?"
"It's true, this is their live broadcast room." After saying that, Xiao Huang handed the phone to Fu Daobin. Fu Daobin looked down and saw that the screen was full of netizens asking the people from Factory 68 to release their products.
Fu Daobin understood that Luo Yao's method was effective.
He was still discussing with experts about using the media to guide consumers to buy products from factories targeted by the Ugly Country. As a result, Luo Yao has now opened up the consumer-factory link, giving factories hope.
Fu Daobin was overjoyed and quickly arranged for experts to change their strategy and start studying logistics, warehousing and other issues. He then asked Xiao Huang to send people to notify other factories to start live streaming and prepare to receive traffic!
