Chapter 474: Finale
Looking at the history of A-shares, except for special years, the trends in the first quarter have not been bad. The market trends in the first quarter of this year are crazy to me.
At the close of Friday, March 29, the Shanghai Composite Index was fixed at 3090.76 points. Throughout March, the stock index reached a high of 3129.94 points.
This is reflected in the specific increases: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 23.93% in the first quarter, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 36.84%, and the ChiNext Index rose 35.43%!
The 23.93% increase in a single quarter is the second highest increase in the first quarter in the history of the Shanghai Composite Index. The first was in the first quarter of 2009, when the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 30.34%.
The market trends throughout 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 are exactly the same as those in the first quarter of 2008 to 2009.
Five quarters of decline and a single quarter of sharp rebound, like a reincarnation, the Shanghai Composite Index has always hovered around 3,000 points.
The Shanghai Composite Index's love for the 3,000 point level is as consistent as a man's love for a young girl.
The market trends in the first quarter were still consumption and technology, with the liquor sector rising by 48.02% overall, leading the entire market.
The semiconductor industry experienced a huge boom before its listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, rising 44.31% in a single quarter, ranking second.
Technology stocks have been in the spotlight in the past three months, but their growth has still not been able to outperform the liquor sector.
Before 2021, liquor can be said to be the god of the market. You don’t have to worry about being trapped if you buy Maotai Liquor at any time.
In the first quarter, Maotai's stock price steadily broke through the 2018 high of the 800 yuan mark, with an increase of 44.74% to 853.99 yuan on March 29.
Since November last year, Maotai's monthly line has closed with five consecutive positive days, and the trend remains very strong.
Today is the day when Maotai announced its 2018 annual financial report. The report released after the market closed showed that Maotai Liquor Industry, whose third-quarter performance was lower than expected, had a full-year revenue growth of 26.49% and a 30% growth in net profit after deducting non-recurring items.
Although the performance is not as good as institutions predicted, the overall increase is still above 20%, which is enough to match its current stock price increase.
Those institutions that were bearish before have now become silent; compared with those institutions that blindly predict stock prices, CICC's prediction of 900 yuan is still relatively generous.
Along with the annual report, Maotai also announced the distribution plan for the annual profit in 2018, with a dividend of 145.39 yuan per 10 shares, which is quite generous!
If you hold 100 shares of Maotai, you can get a dividend of 1,453.9 yuan. The dividend income from the Maotai Liquor shares held by Junshi Group alone is as high as more than 265 million yuan.
The private equity funds, public equity funds and proprietary trading accounts belonging to the three major sectors of Junshi Group also appear among the seventh, eighth and ninth largest circulating shareholders of Maotai Liquor Industry respectively.
The total shareholding is 1.45%, which is only lower than the original shareholders of Maotai, Hong Kong Central Clearing and the national team, ranking as the fourth largest circulating shareholder of Maotai!
"Damn, I usually only saw Junshi Investment holding 10% of Maotai Liquor, I didn't expect it to buy so much."
"Based on today's closing price, the market value of Maotai alone is 15.6 billion yuan, Ningwang is close to 9 billion yuan, and if we assume that Zhongxin Telecom has not been sold yet, then it is more than 10.8 billion yuan, and Dongfang shares is 1.338 billion yuan. The four stocks have a total of nearly 36.8 billion yuan!"
"Dongfang shares must have been sold. This can be seen from the announcement of the reduction of holdings in China News Communications. Maybe he was the one who crashed the market."
"I really didn't expect that this old man is actually the largest circulating shareholder of Dongfang Shares. There is no news about when he entered the company, and it is not shown in the fund's holdings!"
"The position is not high. Even though he is the largest shareholder, even if we calculate it based on the market value at its peak, it is less than 2 billion, and it is definitely not among the top ten largest holdings."
"So, those of us who bought Dongfang shares were bought out by the investors of Junshi Value Investment? How did Gu Laoer, this idiot, pick such a bad stock?"
"That's right, you guys took over the shares from Junshi Value Investment. As for how they chose them, didn't you see that the stocks they bought all had the presence of national teams? Anyway, there's a lot of money at low prices, so just buy any one. If you come across one, you'll make a fortune."
"That makes sense, but I also bought Junshi Value Investment and took over Dongfang Shares at a high price. So I took over for myself!"
"Within just a few years, he has a personal net worth of tens of billions and manages a market value of more than 100 billion. It's really amazing; but look at Mao Tai, who is bottom-fishing with three major accounts at the same time, and he is so accurate and ruthless, he is indeed worthy of this net worth!"
"MD, now think about those institutions collectively shorting Maotai, and even use Brother T's liquidation as an excuse. They dug up the news that he liquidated 10 months ago to support them. It's really stupid."
That’s right, today Dongfang Holdings also announced its 2018 annual report. These days are the end of the annual report market.
By the end of this month, which is the 31st at the latest, all listed companies must publish their annual reports for 2018. As of today, basically all the reports that should be published have been published.
The reason why the market conditions in the first quarter were relatively good, in addition to preparations for listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, is also related to the annual report market conditions. Among the A-share listed companies currently, most of them have forecast an increase in financial statements for 2018.
In April, the Shanghai Composite Index's upward trend lasted only for a week. On April 8, the stock index reached a high of 3288.45 points, but could no longer continue.
The ChiNext Index also faced pressure at the 1,800 point level at the same time, with the index closing at a high of 1,792.03 points. Since then, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have officially ended their three-month rebound and entered a state of adjustment.
After three months of growth, all the positive factors have been realized, and the index has rebounded by more than 700 points. Coupled with the uncertainty of the first quarter report in April, the risks of the market's highs have already emerged.
Adjustments naturally came into being. This month, Junshi Capital is still focusing on portfolio adjustments, and the main direction of the adjustments is to remove technology stocks from its holdings.
5G and some semiconductor chip stocks, led by SinoSingapore Communications, began to gradually adjust their positions this month, and SinoSingapore Communications also completed the first step of reducing its holdings within the month.
The holdings of 136.983 million shares were successfully liquidated through the secondary market and block transactions, with a total of 4.1 billion yuan in funds recovered, and the average transaction price was below 30 yuan.
Compared with the highest price of 38.50 yuan this month, the closing price of 32.15 yuan; Junshi Capital, which mainly reduced its holdings through block transactions, made a lot of concessions in the first round of reduction of Sino-Singapore Telecommunications.
But compared with the holding cost of 13.25 yuan, the profit concession from the large-scale reduction of China News Service’s holdings is really nothing; and through this cooperation, Junshi Capital has also established business contacts with some large institutions.
Some institutions acquire shares at a price below the market price due to strategic needs, which is obviously a good thing; while some institutions acquire shares purely for the purpose of making a difference, so they acquire shares at a 10% discount and start selling them in the market the next day.
As 5G is still popular and China New Communications has risen again throughout the month, the probability of making a profit from the price difference the next day is quite large, and it is almost a risk-free arbitrage behavior.
In May, friction with the other side of the Pacific Ocean escalated again, tariffs were raised from 10% to 25%, and the Shanghai Composite Index once again fell below 3,000 points, reaching a low of 2,883.04 points.
But compared with last year, the A-share market has already adapted and the reaction is not as intense. The re-grouping of funds after the adjustment of their portfolios has not caused the market to fluctuate greatly.
After all, the new village chief said at the press conference that the entire market must ensure the listing of the Science and Technology Innovation Board at all costs. If the extreme market conditions like last year occur again, it would be somewhat inappropriate.
The general market decline in May was not so much caused by negative external factors as it was the result of the market’s own inertial adjustment.
On June 13, 2019, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai Municipal Government jointly held the opening ceremony of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board. The listing time for the first batch of 25 companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board was officially set: July 22.
On June 15, the securities firm completed the technical clearance test for the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
On June 21, the Supreme People's Court legislated on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the registration system reform, and determined the formal promotion of the Science and Technology Innovation Board from a legal perspective. Everything seemed so orderly.
At the same time, the sales of the Science and Technology Innovation Board funds promoted by major fund companies in recent times have been very hot, and fundraising of tens of billions of yuan has been almost sold out in seconds.
Entering 2019, with the improvement of the stock market, fund sales have become noticeably hot. The listing of the Science and Technology Innovation Board has spawned a number of funds based on the Board.
Junshi Fund also timely launched its second public fund, which nominally focuses on investing in the Science and Technology Innovation Board and is managed by Liu Tingting.
Junshi Science and Technology Growth, with a total fundraising of 2 billion yuan, saw its total subscription funds exceed 10 billion yuan in less than an hour after it went online for subscription. It had to suspend subscription urgently and will later expand the subscription ratio to enter the share allocation.
Liu Tingting, who had been Gu Junhao's assistant for several years, finally successfully completed her identity transformation; under the name of Junshi Group, the market did not despise her as a rookie fund manager, and the fund shares were almost sold out in seconds.
The initial scale of 2 billion yuan is relatively small among the funds issued this year, but for a newcomer who is serving as a public fund manager for the first time, it is already a very high number.
For most fund managers, the size of the first fund they manage is less than 500 million.
Regardless of one's views on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, Junshi Group has no choice but to issue a Science and Technology Innovation Board-themed fund to support it and cooperate with the listing of the board.
Today, Gu Junhao, who manages hundreds of billions of dollars in funds, has truly experienced what it means to be in the world and have no choice.
There is no longer the pleasure of buying and selling at will as in the past. In many things, we have to consider the overall situation. This is also the reason why the second fund was handed over to Liu Tingting for management and the fundraising scale was only 2 billion yuan.
However, the first batch of funds on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, except for those stupid ones that were closed for three years, the returns within the one-year closed period were not bad. With a scale of 2 billion yuan, it was also relatively easy for Liu Tingting to manage. Later, as the returns increased, her reputation was also established.
On July 22, 2019, the Science and Technology Innovation Board officially opened for trading, ushering in a brand new sector in the A-share market.
The threshold is 500,000 yuan. There is no limit on the increase in the first five trading days after listing. After five trading days, the increase is limited to plus or minus 20%. The stock code is 688XXX to distinguish it from the main board.
At 9:30, accompanied by the sound of the opening gong, the first batch of 25 Science and Technology Innovation Board companies officially began trading. By the close of trading, the average increase of the first batch of 25 listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board was 140%, among which Anjie shares soared 400%, ranking first.
The total transaction volume of the 25 listed companies reached 48 billion yuan, with an average turnover rate of 77% and an average price-earnings ratio of 120 times; among the 25 companies, 124 billionaires were born.
As the biggest winner of the offline allotment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, public funds were allocated a total of 13.4 billion yuan; on the first day of opening, the public funds that received offline allotment had a total floating profit of more than 15 billion yuan, becoming the biggest winner in the market .
Before the registration system was officially launched, when there were not many stocks that broke their issue price in the market, the offline allotment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board was an important channel for public funds to make profits. This is the so-called policy dividend.
All the attention today was given to the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets as well as the ChiNext seemed mediocre. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.45% to 2899.94 points. After all, the Science and Technology Innovation Board failed to open above 3000.
The ChiNext, which suffered severe capital diversion, opened lower and continued to fall throughout the day, falling 1.69% to 1515.97 points.
…
In less than a year, another major sector of A-shares was born.
With the listing of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the top priority in the domestic capital market this year has finally come to fruition.
After the Science and Technology Innovation Board was hot for a while, the heat began to slowly fade. After all, with a threshold of 500,000 yuan, there are not many retail investors who can participate in the transaction.
The heat finally returned to the main board. 2019 is already halfway through, and it is less than half a year away from the black swan event at the end of December.
The layout of the stock market has basically been completed, and a daily CEO who meets Gu Junhao's requirements has finally been successfully recruited and has greatly shared Gu Junhao's work content.
Since the decision to make Liu Tingting independent, a suitable candidate has been found for the position of assistant at Junshi Value Investment Fund, and she is still a woman.
Female staff are somewhat more meticulous in the management of daily work than male staff, and Gu Junhao felt this from Liu Tingting.
With professional managers, the fund's daily operations are also running normally. In the next less than half a year, all Gu Junhao has to do is to deal with black swan events.
As the company has developed to this point, the newly issued funds will inevitably lead to an expansion of staff. Now, including Junyi Capital managed by Zhang Yiru, the total number of employees in the Junshi Building where three companies are located has exceeded 500.
Gu Junhao is now a man of great wealth and fortune. Knowing that some events are unavoidable but unable to be spoken out, all he can do is to subtly change some of his employees' habits.
In the next few years, Gu Junhao will have to defend this building with these 500 people. While protecting his family, he must also relieve these people of their worries.
This has nothing to do with being a saint. During special times, it is a boss's responsibility to ensure the safety of employees and the normal operation of the company.
With Junshi Capital's current strength, it is not difficult to achieve these goals even if it knows nothing about the future. Gu Junhao has been quietly making some preparations over the past six months and believes that he can do a good job.
As for how Junshi Group should deal with the market three years later without the foresight, Gu Junhao is also not panicked.
After six years of market experience, Junshi Capital is no longer what it used to be Although the returns in the future may not be as good as they are now, Gu Junhao still maintains his confidence.
If all else fails, you can retire early and hand over the company to professionals. You only need to control the equity and connections.
What's more, Junshi has invested in many physical companies, and there are quite a few companies that meet the registration-based listing standards, including Berning Auto Parts, which is personally invested by Gu Junhao.
Once the registration system is liberalized and Berning Auto Parts goes public through an IPO, the equity of this company alone will be able to bring Gu Junhao considerable profits.
December 4, 2019, is the ninth day of the winter month in the lunar calendar.
Today is Zhang Yiru's 28th birthday. On this day, Gu Junhao held a small birthday party for her at home. In addition to some relatives, those who attended were all people that the couple had become familiar with and trusted in recent years.
Watching her husband cutting the cake for her, Zhang Yiru, who has been a mother for many years and has become more mature in temperament, has eyes full of the big boy who took her to see "The Four" and gave her a comb to express his love for her.
"Keeping one's hair together is a sign of courtesy."
(End of the book)
