Chapter 451 Waiting for the Flowers to Bloom
There was no substantial good news over the weekend, and there was another big drop on Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with four consecutive declines, barely holding the 2,700 point mark.
The ChiNext Index closed at 1440.80 points, down 2.75% on the day; starting from the 26th of last month, the ChiNext Index fell 200 points in eight trading days.
The decline of the ChiNext Index is obviously faster than that of the Shanghai Composite Index. If calculated at this pace, the ChiNext Index may bottom out before the Shanghai Composite Index.
In a market where both good and bad are mixed, there is no other way for both institutional investors and ordinary investors except to wait for the bottom to be reached.
For investors who are still in the market, it is obviously impossible to cut losses at this point. The market has fallen by 800 points, and individual stocks can no longer be sold at a loss.
However, it is obviously not the right time to buy at the bottom. No matter how hard the market struggles between 2700 and 2800 points, it is bound to break. This is already the consensus in the current market.
MY friction is still escalating. There will be many companies that will be treated the same as China News Service. The market has not yet fully adapted to this model, and occasional crashes will still occur.
After the two markets plummeted on Monday, Gu Junhao also began to give up his life and stopped going to the trading room. The sluggish market was very boring.
In the next period of time, Gu Junhao plans to focus on selecting a CEO and try to free himself from daily affairs.
Since the beginning of the year, Gu Junhao has been looking for a CEO candidate through his personal connections.
As a start-up company, Junshi Capital has actually gone through the stage from 0 to 1. The boss's personal ability is beyond doubt, and there are actually not that many requirements for the CEO candidate.
In addition to requiring a certain strategic investment vision, the specific work only includes handling some daily affairs, optimizing company profits, inventory and cash management, etc.
Simply put, they are people who do odd jobs and also need to do things that may offend people. Some of the company's old employees cannot keep up with the business capabilities, and it is not convenient for the boss Gu Junhao to step forward, so the new CEO is the best candidate.
The company has gone through the most difficult period. As for the next strategy, as long as the boss does not make any big mistakes, it is a foregone conclusion that Junshi Capital will have assets under management of over 100 billion yuan.
But perhaps it is precisely because the job is not difficult and challenging that the specific candidate has not been decided yet.
Those who are motivated and capable will look down on such a non- challenging job, and Gu Junhao will also look down on those with average abilities.
In fact, such a position is not entirely determined . Most people value the sense of professional achievement and challenge more.
In Gu Junhao's mind, the most ideal candidate for CEO is probably someone like Guo Yuanwei.
He is of a very suitable age, has strong business skills, has experienced life changes, and has a stable and fulfilling job, which can make him feel more peaceful.
After August, Gu Junhao did not enter the trading room again. Within a month, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by as much as 5.25%.
The slogan of the 2800-point defense battle was changed to the 2700-point defense battle. After each rebound, there were consecutive days of adjustments and there was no sustainability in the market.
Funds off-market dare not enter the market, and funds on the market dare not move rashly. After a positive line rebound, the competition is about who runs faster.
With an average daily trading volume of about 140 billion yuan, the monthly trading volume is less than the trading volume of three days during the bull market in 2015. With such a market trend, even a god cannot save it.
After one month, the net value of Junshi Value Investment retreated to 2.3158, with a monthly retreat rate of 7.55%, creating a new high in Gu Junhao's career as a fund manager.
More and more investors are trapped in the market. The fund comment section, which was relatively detailed before, is now full of complaints and hostility.
Nine months have passed since the quota was imposed at the end of November last year, and Junshi Price Investment has still not made any announcement on the relaxation of subscription, which makes investors even more dissatisfied.
There is no opportunity to increase positions significantly in order to get out of the predicament as soon as possible.
That’s right, some investors are like this. The more they lose money, the more they want to add positions. The operating logic of most fund investors is actually different from that of stock investors.
Perhaps there are too few excellent funds in the country, so a year or two of holding the funds does not seem to be a big deal to investors. Many investors have held their fund shares for several years.
Fund investors can also be stock investors. A very strange way of thinking is that fund investors believe that funds can be held for the long term, and they can buy more when the price goes up, and they should buy even more when the price goes down.
But if they are asked to hold stocks for a week, they will think it is a long-term investment. Many times, Gu Junhao does not understand this way of thinking.
Perhaps, in their view, stocks and funds are two different things, or perhaps it is long-term brainwashing that makes them think that funds are more credible than stocks.
In fact, all financial products are the same and there is no essential difference.
In the first week of September, the market was still very sluggish, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 2,700 point level, sometimes closing below 2,700 points and sometimes regaining 2,700 points.
Within a week, the central bank operated a total of 176.5 billion yuan, but the market reaction was not significant. In September, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike was almost a foregone conclusion, and the market's wait-and-see sentiment was still very strong.
Since Apple holds a new product launch conference in mid-September every year, generally speaking, the period from early September to before the new product launch is usually the time node for speculation in the A-share Apple industry chain.
However, on the first weekend of September, the President threatened to move Apple's entire industrial chain back to the country. This unconventional tweet shows that the President really understands stock trading.
On Monday, September 10, A-share stocks related to the Apple industry chain plummeted across the board, with several leading stocks including Luxshare Technology, O-Film Technology, and Xinwei Technology all hitting their daily limit.
Among them, the current leading white horse OFI Co., Ltd. will be kicked out of the industrial chain by Apple in the future, resulting in a bankruptcy. As a company with only one major customer and in the OEM industry, its fundamentals are actually very fragile.
Today, the two markets fell again. The ChiNext Index fell 2.5% throughout the day, falling below 1,400 points. Nearly 3,000 stocks in the two markets were in the red.
It is getting closer and closer to the bottom.
What surprised Gu Junhao the most today was that Dongfang Fortune suddenly crashed at the opening, with the stock price going straight to the limit down at 11.12 yuan. Who would have thought that Dongfang Fortune, whose stock price was over 100 yuan at its peak in 2015, has now returned to a price around 10 yuan again.
After 2015, Dongfang Wealth has increased its share price every year, but when converted into the price before the ex-rights price, it is less than 25 yuan, which is four-fifths of the stock price at its peak.
"Dongfang Wealth is around 10 yuan, so it is indeed possible to build a position. Although the increase is not that exaggerated, it is stable and has a large market cap."
Gu Junhao, who saw Dongfang Wealth suddenly collapse and hit the limit down in the office, couldn't help but start thinking.
Under the normal rhythm, October should be the policy bottom of the market. In fact, a series of policies have been introduced recently, but they are still being ignored by the market for the time being.
In fact, most high-quality stocks have bottomed out in October. Dongfang Wealth currently has a relatively large weight in the ChiNext. If the ChiNext is to rise, Dongfang Wealth will inevitably follow.
From this point of view, it seems that Tong Huashun can also be bought. These two stocks must be bought together.
Compared with Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun's stock price is relatively strong. Although it was affected and hit the limit down during the trading session, it did not hit the limit down.
Today, Tonghuashun closed at 34.53 yuan, with its share price down 6.95%. The daily turnover was a pitiful 175 million yuan, and Dongfang Wealth's daily turnover was also a pitiful 600 million yuan.
The old is replaced by the new, and now the new favorites of the ChiNext are new energy leading stocks such as Ningwang.
However, Ning Wang also suffered a severe decline in August. Since it hit a new high of 95.08 yuan since its listing on July 25, Ning Wang's stock price has been falling since it hit the limit down that day.
Today, Ningwang fell again by 3.11%, and its share price closed at 61.35 yuan. Although Junshi Ningwang is still profitable due to intraday T, this price has fallen below the price of the first position.
Ning Wang, which is priced around 60 yuan, is definitely worth owning. If it falls, it is nothing more than continuing to increase holdings. Currently, Junshi Group holds a total of 71.4286 million shares of Ning Wang.
Gu Junhao's plan is to buy about 110 million shares, raising his shareholding ratio to above 4.9% and below 5%, to maximize King Ning's interests.
According to the current price range, Gu Junhao can still increase his holdings by approximately 38.5 million shares, and the amount of funds required is approximately 2.3 billion yuan.
"The cost price is between 6.7 billion yuan and 7 billion yuan. I hope it stays around 60 yuan for a while, which will save me some money."
Ningwang's current overall market value is around 133.2 billion yuan. The reasonable price range given by institutions is 50 to 60 yuan, and the Junshi Capital team also has the same analysis.
Although Ning Wang was highly sought after by the capital market in 2018, its actual performance and valuation were only in this price range. Ning Wang really entered the fast lane after November 2019.
The performance has definitely been reflected in the stock price in advance. The reasonable range in 2018 is the lowest point in 2019.
Since 2019, Ning Wang's stock price has soared tenfold thanks to several consecutive years of explosive performance, and its market value reached 1.6 trillion yuan at its peak.
In 2022, when Gu Junhao was reborn, even after a large-scale adjustment, the market value still remained above one trillion.
If you spend 60 to 70 billion yuan to buy Ning Wang this year, you will be able to have it in a few years. If you include the T profit from intraday operations, the profit will be even more considerable!
Thinking about it this way, Gu Junhao was quite excited. As long as he held on to one stock of Ning Wang, it didn't matter if he lost all his other investments.
Ning Wang spent 7 billion yuan to build a position, and China News Service still had 5 billion yuan in position building costs, which means 12 billion yuan was already gone.
And this is just the amount of two stocks. The money in the capital market is really just a string of numbers.
Ten days have passed in September, and there are two holidays coming up: Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. There are not many days left for actual trading.
In other words, there is not much time left before the A-share market reaches its true bottom, and it is time to act quickly!
September 11, Tuesday. Today, Gu Junhao came to the company earlier than usual. As soon as he arrived at the company, he asked Li Xinyu to notify Liu Tingting, Wang Ruoyu, and Xu Jianqing to come for a meeting.
The purpose of calling these three people over was nothing more than to talk about the position building plans that he had thought of yesterday. After the three people came over, Gu Junhao described the position building plans one by one.
By now, the abilities of the three have been honed and they only need to give a general direction for building a position, and the holdings are still the same.
"This month, the three of you should sort out your holdings. Sell all the messy ones when you can. We will officially start building positions next month."
The three of them had just sat down, and Gu Junhao didn't waste time talking to them. He immediately decided on the specific content of today's small meeting.
It is said that the more people there are in a meeting, the more useless it is, and that a useful meeting can often be held with just a few people. I don’t know about other things, but this is indeed the case with Junshi Fund Business Department’s investments in the secondary market.
"Ah? Is the boss going to show off his skills?" Xu Jianqing laughed. Their positions have not been high throughout the year. Since their group has more T+0 operations, the business volume is still acceptable.
The Junshi No. 2 Fund Business Group is almost bored to death, but given the market conditions, the traders have no complaints. It is impossible for them to make money by letting the boss lose money on his entire position.
Gu Junhao looked at the three of them and nodded, "Yes, that's right. Next month we will gradually increase our positions and fill them up by the end of the year. Can we do that?"
"No problem. I'm just waiting for you to say that, Boss."
"There's no problem on our side. I'll go back and prepare later."
"There is no problem with public funds, which currently have a position of almost 70%."
"That's good. As for the specific position allocation, except for China News Service, which remains unchanged, King Ning will increase his position starting today and control his shareholding below 4.99%. Do you understand?"
"clear!"
"Well, here is the allocation of positions. Please take note of it and keep it confidential. In addition to Sino-Singapore Telecom and Ningwang, of the funds that can be mobilized, liquor positions account for 30%, pharmaceuticals account for 30%, and the three photovoltaic stocks of Longji Shares, Sunshine Shares, and Tongwei Group account for 20%. The rest are technology stocks, which also account for 20%."
Then, Gu Junhao issued another order that shocked the three people: "If necessary, you can use financing, but you must inform me in time."
"Ah? Boss, do you think this is the bottom?" After being stunned for a while, Liu Tingting was the first to react and asked.
Since its establishment, Junshi Capital has never used any financing methods on the company's account, except for some financing methods used by the boss's personal account. All funds come from customers and the company's own funds.
What was unexpected was that in this year's environment, the boss actually thought of using financing, which really surprised the three of them.
Facing Liu Tingting's question, Gu Junhao nodded and said, "Well, but the financing can only be used after the market improves. Don't do it during a downward trend to avoid accidents."
This is a historic bottom. At this time, if we don’t raise some funds, it would be a shame to not be able to live up to this big bottom. The reason why we didn’t use it before was because it was unnecessary, and also for the sake of the company’s safety.
If a small startup company is poor and is targeted by someone after raising funds, it will really go bankrupt. However, Junshi Capital now has a certain status in the financial circle, and there is no problem at all with financing above the safety line.
"Oh, by the way, Tingting will send out an announcement after get off work. Starting tomorrow, Junshi Value Investment will lift the quota limit and resume normal subscription. You should be prepared."
"Oh, okay, I understand!" The boss already had plans for financing, and lifting the subscription limit was also within Liu Tingting's expectations.
"Okay, do you have anything else to do? If not, go get ready."
"Boss, aren't you going to the trading room?"
"I won't go. I have other things to do." Gu Junhao shook his head.
If Junshi Capital wants to raise funds, it is definitely not as simple as opening an account like a retail investor with 500,000 yuan and then taking a certain amount of money.
Even if the financing is only based on the company's existing cash flow and the valuation of securities, even if it is only 10%, it will still be tens of billions of yuan. Gu Junhao has to inform the securities companies and banks in advance.
Everything is ready, all we have to do now is wait for the flowers to bloom.
"Do you have any work arrangements today? If not, let's go to the bank together."
