Chapter 437: Planning after the New Year
The movie market during the Spring Festival is still very hot. A series of box office hits such as Detective Chinatown 2 and Operation Red Sea have exploded during this Spring Festival.
On the first day of the Lunar New Year alone, the single-day box office of theaters across the country reached 1.264 billion yuan, setting a record for the highest single-day box office in a single market in the world.
From the first to the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, the domestic box office exceeded 4.6 billion yuan, setting a new record for the Spring Festival.
Just like gamblers watching football games, stock traders look at the movie box office and don’t think too much about how good the movie is. The first reaction in their minds is only which stock will rise.
"Will you not be able to watch movies this time next year?"
When walking out of the cinema, what Gu Junhao was thinking about was not the plot, but this scene.
Gu Junhao and his family also went to see a movie, which was Detective Chinatown 2. After all, watching a movie should be fun, not just about getting some kind of education.
The crazier it is now, the more miserable it will be next year . To a certain extent, this year's huge explosion in movie box office has accelerated the entry of capital into this industry.
And then, nothing happened.
What is it like to invest in the film industry in 2018?
In fact, from Gu Junhao's point of view, making movies doesn't seem to make much money. It is said that the cost of a movie must be more than three times the box office to cover it.
In other words, a movie with an investment of 100 million yuan needs to have a box office of 300 million yuan to break even.
Small productions are fine, if they become popular they can make a lot of money, but large productions have huge risks. Not only does it take a long time, but the box office may not be as good as expected, which means it will be a huge loss.
Since his rebirth, Gu Junhao has never bought movie stocks, including in his previous life, when he only bought such stocks a few times and never thought of holding them for a long time.
Movies are risky, and the costs of entertainment companies are opaque. For investors, behind the boom are countless hidden dangers. This is an industry where the risks are clearly greater than the benefits.
Although the box office of Spring Festival movies is so hot, it is not a good thing for retail investors, because this has already been fed back to the stock market in advance.
Movie stocks have been rising for some time in advance, and the box office during the Spring Festival has repeatedly broken records. The official trading after the New Year will inevitably lead to the entry of retail investors.
When emotions reach their extreme, the market is bound to open high and close low. If the retail investors who take over the stocks do not run away in time, they will be trapped for three to four years at the very least.
On Thursday, February 22, the first trading day after the holiday, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher in the morning, influenced by the sharp rebound of external stock markets during the Spring Festival.
The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher at 3257.57 points, filling the downward gap from February 8 to February 9, showing an extremely strong performance.
"This is the consequence of having no volume. A little bit of volume can cause huge ups and downs, and the prices are pulled very high." Gu Junhao sighed.
The film, television and media sector also opened sharply higher as expected, with Jinyi Film and Television opening at the daily limit and Zhongguo Film opening sharply higher by more than 5%.
In addition, driven by tourism during the Spring Festival holiday, the tourism sector's call auction also attracted most of the funds.
Looking at the opening phenomenon of flowers and flowers, Gu Junhao looked at Liu Tingting and said, "Have you changed your positions?"
"Well, everything has been changed. The position is still 70%, concentrated in the two major sectors of technology stocks and pharmaceutical stocks."
"Well, in the first half of the year, we will still focus on low-position operations and not rush to expand the scale."
Junshi No. 2 will also build positions in some technology and pharmaceutical sectors starting today. This is what Wang Ruoyu requested. However, similarly, the position allocation in the first half of the year will not be too high and will not exceed 25% of the total size at most.
Since the net value return of Junshi No. 2 has reached the standard for charging a maximum management fee of 4%, it would be somewhat unfair to customers if the short position level is maintained throughout the year.
This is equivalent to not only collecting interest on the customer's large sum of money, but also collecting money from them.
Therefore, Gu Junhao discussed this issue with the customer and made certain concessions.
At the end of the year, Junshi No. 2 will provide customers with a detailed position map. If the average monthly position is more than 50%, normal management fees will be charged.
If the monthly average holding is between 20% and 50%, the management fee will be halved. If the monthly average holding is below 20%, the management fee will be charged at 80% of the standard.
No management fees will be charged in the months when the position is empty, which means that in January this year, Junshi No. 2 will not charge customers any management fees.
This is also the reason why Wang Ruoyu wants to invest in technology stocks. He has to create some profits for the company, and at the same time he also wants to create as much profit as possible for Junshi No. 2 Trading Team.
In addition, starting from the beginning of the year, proprietary trading will use a more covert method to break down funds into small amounts and start buying technology stocks such as Nvidia again.
As for Longji Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Hong Kong stocks, there will also be no actions in the first half of the year. The time to buy will have to wait until at least after June, that is, the third quarter to start building positions.
Xie Jun of Jiufeng Trust has already said that after their group’s meeting and communication, they decided to give up the first dividend redemption opportunity and reinvest the funds in the secondary market.
The last time Junshi Capital reduced its holdings in Nvidia, it had a capital inflow of US$1.6 billion, but this time Gu Junhao only plans to take out another US$10 to re-enter the US stock market.
Of the remaining US$600 million, except for the remaining US$200 million which will be converted into an equal amount of Hong Kong dollars to invest in Hong Kong stocks, the remaining US$400 million will be converted into an equal amount of RMB and entered into Junshi Capital's account.
The return of 400 million US dollars can be regarded as a contribution to the foreign exchange reserves. It is for this reason that Jiufeng Trust decided to give up this redemption.
The US dollars that Gu Junhao got from the foreign exchange market not only did not cause any foreign exchange losses, but instead returned to the original value more than doubled.
On the surface, Junshi Capital seems to be an investment company that makes money in the A-share market and serves the wealthy more. It does not seem to have made any concrete contribution to society.
But in fact, in addition to making profits in the A-share market, Junshi Capital is a positive energy enterprise that holds equity in many real enterprises, engages in industry, and is able to bring back foreign exchange to the region!
Otherwise, do you think the short position crisis of Junshi No. 2 in January will be so easy to pass? In just a few months, the A-share market has reduced its holdings by 40 to 50 billion yuan. No matter what, I have to teach you a lesson.
Even if you fully comply with the rules, you, a new self-made billionaire on the Forbes Rich List, the champion in private equity fund returns for three consecutive years, and the actual controller of the champion in the historical growth of A-share public funds, are short on A-shares.
What does it mean that so many investors with halos are short of A-shares? How will ordinary investors view A-shares based on this?
Unless you are shorting your position because you need to liquidate!
After several years of planning, although we cannot do whatever we want, we can still turn a blind eye to Junshi Capital within the scope permitted by the rules.
Nowadays, Gu Junhao has understood the pretentious rhetoric of those Internet tycoons. When money reaches a certain level, it can no longer be considered your own money.
However, being able to freely dispose of these properties, create certain benefits for society, and improve one's own social status actually feels quite good.
The high-spirited trend, unsurprisingly, gave A-shares a good start in post-holiday trading. The Shanghai Composite Index opened and closed higher throughout the day, surging 2.17%, with heavyweight stocks rebounding significantly.
The ChiNext Index also rose by more than 1.5%. Chip stocks surged today. Unigroup Guoxin hit the daily limit, while Weir Holdings, Jacques Group, and Yivi Communications rose by more than 7%. There were also many stocks in the sector that rose by more than 5%.
The film and television media sector opened high and closed low as expected, killing the retail investors who rushed in during the early trading session. In comparison, the rebound of technology stocks was much more lasting.
The rise of chip stocks before and after the holidays, the sentiment and atmosphere have been full, and it is very reasonable to release news after the market.
After today's closing, there were media reports that the company plans to equip its successively launched Android phones with its own chips and will start mass production on a large scale.
For a moment, the entire Internet was in an uproar.
The slogan of developing the country through science and technology will become another popular term after value investing in the next few years.
Hot money entered the market to create concepts, institutions followed up, the media leaked information, and listed companies continued to release positive news. Everything was proceeding in an orderly manner.
On February 23, the two markets continued to move upward, and technology stocks continued their recent strong performance. At the same time, stimulated by policies, the Millennium New District concept, which had collectively failed in hot money, also had a significant rebound today.
However, all the major institutions cut their losses too harshly in the first wave. This sector has only seen a small rebound, and its sustainability is very average.
The sector that hot money dare not go into is destined to not achieve much in the short term, and to be honest, there are basically not many good concept stocks in this sector.
Most of them are stocks with too large a market cap and poor performance. If no new concepts had emerged, the large institutions that were trapped in 2015 would have had a long time to get out of the trap.
It is no wonder that they can't wait to sell off their chips as soon as the concept comes out and hot money hits the top.
After passing this station, I don’t know where the next station is!
There are only five trading days in February after the holiday. Among these five trading days, although the trading volume is not large, the profit effect is relatively good.
The rebound trend of small and medium-sized enterprises remains, and technology stocks have performed very well. However, last year's value investment group has shrunk a lot after the sharp drop at the beginning of the year.
Therefore, blue-chip stocks entered a relatively stable adjustment period after the holiday, and the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded for six consecutive days before and after the holiday.
But no matter what, the post-holiday market will still belong to small and medium-sized innovative stocks led by technology stocks, and retail investors are still quite enthusiastic about participating in these sectors.
On Wednesday, February 28, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3259.41 points, with a monthly decline of 6.36%. It broke through the monthly five-day line and the 10-day line. Technically, the K-line trend began to turn downward.
The ChiNext Index rose 0.58% today, closing at 1753.63 points, and rose 1.07% for the month. The ChiNext Index, which once fell to around 1571 points, rebounded by more than 150 points after the holiday.
Affected by the portfolio adjustments and stock swaps in the few days before and after the holiday, Junshi Price Investment's net value has recovered to a certain extent, but the net value for the whole month still fell by as much as 3.76%, and the net value dropped to 2.5876.
The net value of Junshi No. 2, which is of most concern to the public, has not changed much. It has only increased from 1.5147 in January to 1.5227 in February. The overall scale has increased by less than 200 million compared with last month.
The fluctuation of Junshi No. 2 is still so small that for a while, the market was full of imagination.
