Chapter 434: Shattered Dream
Generally speaking, at the end of a bull market, most of the first to run away are institutional groups.
The second group is the group of hot money with flexible mobility and keen sense of smell. These people generally run faster, especially those hot money that experienced the hype of the Millennium New District concept in 2017.
This lesson is truly bloody. After being cut so badly that the wounds haven't healed yet, at the slightest sign of trouble, he will run away faster than a rabbit.
The last ones left are ordinary retail investors, a small number of whom may be able to avoid the stock market crash for various reasons, but most of them will remain at high positions.
This is fate, and it is also the true attribute of A-shares.
In fact, without considering external factors and only considering the technical trend, there is nothing wrong with reducing positions at this position. Moreover, the trend of A-shares from the middle and late first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter every year is not very good.
What is meant to come will eventually come.
On the evening of February 5, affected by the geopolitical leader’s speech, US stocks plummeted overnight, casting a shadow on the A-share trading the next day.
As expected, as soon as the market opened the next day, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened sharply lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling as much as 1.84% as soon as it opened.
At the same time, Hong Kong stocks and many stock markets around Asia Pacific experienced large-scale declines. The hunting time has arrived!
The early morning opening stunned the retail investors who were still dreaming of a rebound. After all, yesterday's index had risen quite well.
"Fuck, the market is reacting so strongly? These blue chip stocks opened so much lower."
"The Americans are causing trouble again. The President is going to make a big move. Today is over."
"What bad luck! Where is the value investment we promised? I have been in the market for half a month and lost 20 points. What the hell is value investment?"
"You can just listen to this. Value investing in A-shares is all about deceiving people to take over."
"Oh, I've lost so much money recently. Both blue chips and white horses have been killed. Nothing I do is right. Brother T's fund has also been falling for several days in a row."
"Can I buy at the bottom today? The price has dropped so much, I feel like there is an opportunity to buy at the bottom."
"No more copying, no more copying, I'm scared; save some money to buy a ticket to go home for the New Year, I've been feeling numb these past few days."
"Oh, I should have listened to Brother T. Brother T has been short of Junshi No. 2 for a month or two. I should have cleared out the position earlier."
"Brother, didn't Brother T miss out on hundreds of points? Brother T cleared out his positions before the index rose by hundreds of points. What a great achievement!"
"You're talking as if the index has gone up by a few hundred points and individual stocks have gone up. Why don't you go and see how badly those stocks have fallen? What does it matter if they go up by a few hundred points?"
"What you said makes a lot of sense. I am speechless. The market has risen to 3,500, but my position has hit a new low. It's really outrageous."
After the opening, there were no hot spots in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and the decline of individual stocks continued to intensify. The limit-down trend of the previous few days continued and further expanded.
At midday close, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell by more than 2%, with the ChiNext Index performing particularly badly, closing at 1642.65 points at noon, down 2.7% on the day.
1642.65 points is also the lowest point of the ChiNext Index in the past two years. In the morning session, there were more than 100 stocks that hit the daily limit in the two markets.
Among all major sectors, except for the gold sector, no other sector was spared.
At the closing time of the market at noon, Gu Junhao looked at Liu Tingting with a faint smile: "How was today? Was it going to be miserable?"
"It's OK. We have already shifted our positions to the pharmaceutical sector and have almost finished the job. Compared with other sectors, pharmaceuticals are slightly more resilient to declines. Among our holdings, there are even some pharmaceutical stocks that have risen quite well this morning."
"Well, that's good, but everyone should be prepared for the next few days. I estimate that the number of investors redeeming their shares will start to increase."
"Yes, we told them not to buy when the quota was set, but they didn't believe us and accused us of using hunger marketing. But as soon as the price dropped, they ran away faster than anyone else."
"The normal situation, especially those who are watched every day, will not wake up unless they are beaten up by a few big guys. If nothing unexpected happens, those who entered at the beginning of the year will be trapped for a while."
"Our record should also be terminated, right?" Liu Tingting looked at Gu Junhao and said.
Since Gu Junhao took over Junshi Value Investment, it has achieved positive growth for 23 consecutive months until last month. Judging from the market trend in February, this record is about to be ended.
"Don't worry about whether you record it or not. Judging from the large-scale decline today, it will continue to fall for a while. Just try to minimize the loss of the fund."
"Okay, got it."
In the afternoon, the market continued to fall. The ChiNext Index, which closed at the lowest point in the morning, showed no rebound trend and continued to plunge downward.
The Shanghai Composite Index finally couldn't hold on as the last protective barrier, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, fell, and the decline began to widen.
As the world's largest bank, ICBC's share price rose , and in February it hit a record high of 7.17 yuan, the second highest price since 2007.
As a cornerstone sector for stabilizing the A-share market, ICBC is the cornerstone among cornerstones. It has always been stable and it is a good choice for large funds to lie in it and reap the dividends.
However, in less than a year, excluding two dividends, big players like ICBC have risen by more than 70%.
Who wouldn't run away? You have to know that those who reap the dividends in the banking sector are all large institutions with big funds. People like Gu Junhao who buy a few hundred million are not considered big investors.
What does it mean that billions, tens of billions, or even hundreds of billions of funds increase by 70% in a year?
If you don't run away now, are you really leaving it to your son as an heirloom?
Looking back, Gu Junhao sold out all his bank stocks around January. The share price of stocks like China Construction Bank can double in just a year's trading time. Can you believe it?
For bank stocks, with such an exaggerated increase in price, it is definitely not worth buying into unless the stock falls for a year or two and adjusts to a certain level.
The plunge in the banking sector led to a further decline in the local index. Retail investors who were still thinking about buying the dip in the morning and had already taken action are now regretting their decision.
At the close of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.35%, breaking through 3,400 points to 3,370.65, falling below the 60-day support level of the daily line.
The ChiNext Index fell 5.34% throughout the day, breaking through 1700 and 1600 points in succession, and closed at 1598.12 points. The three major indices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all showed a big negative line situation.
Today, both markets opened with a decline throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index had a total turnover of 318.8 billion yuan throughout the day, and some funds had a strong desire to flee.
A total of more than 400 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets hit the daily limit, once again breaking the record for daily limit since the end of the stock market crash. More than 400 stocks hitting the daily limit is actually another stock market crash.
Unfortunately, however, after the market closed, major institutions were still bullish, ignoring the risks in overseas markets and attributing today's sharp drop more to the correction of recent sharp gains and the Spring Festival effect, etc.
Brokerage firms are still using the historical data of positive returns of A-shares in the seven trading days before the Spring Festival, and recommend investors to pay attention to undervalued stocks, such as banks, petrochemicals, mass consumer goods, etc.
When reviewing the market in the evening, Gu Junhao saw the research reports of these major institutions and couldn't help shaking his head: "Alas, the environment has changed. There are no more reports that warn retail investors."
On the contrary, Li Daxiao, who has always been bullish on blue-chip stocks, said "Be cautious when investing" at the beginning of this year.
For these mindless Internet bulls, it is quite rare to be able to say that one should be cautious in investing.
At least compared to the securities analysts who are now asking retail investors to take over bank stocks and describing bank stocks as undervalued sectors, this is much more conscientious...
In fact, normally speaking, whether it is an index or an individual stock, when the upward trend reverses to a downward trend, it can actually rebound when it falls below the 60-day line for the first time.
Most of the time, when the price breaks below the 60-day moving average for the first time, especially when it breaks below the moving average quickly, there will be a small rebound.
Before lying down, you have to stand up straight for a few times.
Of course, this is just a rebound process, and the trend will not change. Once large institutions leave the market, they will not re-enter so quickly. It is more some hot money and retail investors who prefer this kind of rebound.
The time for rebound, whether long or short, is similar to some aspects of human beings.
The transaction on February 7 was no exception.
However, the rebound on February 7 was about the same time as that of middle-aged people. The one-hour rebound in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets officially ended at 10:30 am...
The Shanghai Composite Index opened sharply upward by 1.4% to above 3,400 points in the early trading session, but after rising for less than a minute, it started to open high and move lower.
At 10:30, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets , led by blue chip stocks that opened high and low, fell across the board, with a drop of more than 3% within half an hour!
The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell below the 30-day line, the CSI 300 Index fell below the 60-day line, the real estate sector fell rapidly, and Xincheng Holdings, which had not yet been involved in any malicious incident, was the first to quickly hit the limit.
ICBC broke through, ChiNext continued to fall in large volume, and panic spread rapidly on the market.
The sharp drop in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in the morning led to a complete loss of sentiment in the afternoon, with the three major indexes maintaining a volatile downward trend.
As Gu Junhao judged, after yesterday's stock market crash-like decline, the funds redeemed by Junshi Price Investment throughout the day began to increase significantly.
This is true for all star fund products, and other fund products are no exception; as redemptions increase, fund managers must sell stocks to match positions, which is inevitable.
To a certain extent, the rapid decline after today's rebound is also related to the public funds' efforts to match redemptions.
For example, before the market opened, without Gu Junhao saying much, Liu Tingting had already arranged for the trading team to quickly reduce and match positions after the market opened.
Therefore, no matter what the opening price is, the public fund manager who is redeemed must hand over a certain amount of chips.
To some extent, this can be considered as the retail investors shooting themselves in the foot.
After a full day of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.82%, and the index barely held the 3,300 point mark. Based on the opening position, the actual decline has exceeded 3.5%.
The ChiNext Index performed quite well in the afternoon. The amplitude of the ChiNext Index exceeded 4%, and the intraday decline once exceeded 1.5%, with the index hitting a low of 1571.47 points.
However, affected by the rebound of the high-dividend and high-bonus sector, the ChiNext Index made a V-shaped reversal in the afternoon. The index returned to above 1,600 points, closing at 1,616.40 points, up 1.14% on the day.
In addition, there have been certain changes in chips, semiconductors and 5G concepts today.
As for the game between the two parties, the performance of technology stocks in the past two years is still good. When the heavyweight blue chips and super brands have all broken through, the domestic substitution of technology stocks can indeed be hyped up.
It's not impossible to make this money! Next year, I'll sell it to my brother Cai.
On the other hand, the ChiNext has indeed fallen badly recently, with small and medium-sized start-up stocks frequently hitting new lows, and the risk of major shareholders' liquidation is getting greater and greater.
The most common news I have seen recently is probably that the pledged shares of a major shareholder of a certain stock are close to the liquidation line. At this time, a rebound and repair process is imminent.
Actually, this is all thanks to the fake accountant. He invented the pledge-based reduction method, which made these major shareholders follow suit. However, they were not as lucky as the fake accountant and did not escape.
Before the market closed, Gu Junhao said to Liu Tingting: "Let's add some chips and semiconductor stocks to our positions tomorrow."
"Ah? Boss, didn't you say that even dogs wouldn't buy tech stocks?" Liu Tingting said in surprise.
“Woof woof!”
