Chapter 431: Junshi No. 2 suspected of being short
Tuesday, January 30th.
After the morning call auction ended, the Shanghai Composite Index opened low at 3511.50 points, hitting yesterday's lowest point and falling below the 10-day line.
The Shanghai Composite Index's correction trend has become very obvious. For this reason, Liu Tingting is a bit troubled. Among the three major sectors, only Junshi Price Investment's holdings still have a relatively high market value.
"Boss, there are still nearly 7 billion positions. What should we do if the investors haven't significantly reduced their positions?"
Due to the withdrawal of some institutions and big investors, the overall scale of Junshi Price Investment has now dropped to around 10 billion yuan, but as Liu Tingting said, ordinary fund holders do have limited redemptions.
This is also what gives Gu Junhao a headache. As a fund manager, he cannot publicly sing bearish tunes. Limiting purchases at high levels is already the highest level of warning he can give.
But there is no doubt that ordinary investors are still so slow to predict risks. In the past month, due to the continuous rise of the liquor sector, more ordinary users have applied for subscription.
Yesterday's sharp drop caused Junshi's price investment to retreat severely. However, this did not stop these people. Instead, the trend of subscription increased. This was probably a bottom-fishing as mentioned in the comments.
"Continue to reduce holdings of liquor and switch positions to the pharmaceutical sector. There is nothing we can do if it really falls. I hope the retracement will be smaller." Gu Junhao said helplessly.
As a defensive sector, the overall pharmaceutical sector's growth is not as exaggerated as that of the liquor sector. It was only in the third quarter of 2017 that it began to gain momentum.
At the beginning of a major correction, the adjustment of the pharmaceutical sector, which has not seen an increase in growth, will definitely be milder than that of the liquor sector, whose share prices have doubled this year.
Speaking of which, Gu Junhao and Junshi Price Investment's trading team are relatively hardworking. Even in the past two years, Gu Junhao has to pay more attention to his family.
However, every quarter, Junshi Value Investment's turnover rate is above 100%, which fully demonstrates that the fund is operating frequently and using various means to create value for investors.
Instead of simply collecting management fees by doing nothing, like some fund managers whose turnover rate in a quarter is less than 30%.
On the news front, the richest man Lao Wang and other well-known domestic entrepreneurs such as Mahua signed an investment agreement of 34 billion yuan for the privatization of Wanda Commercial's Hong Kong stocks.
Even with such positive stimulus, the market still opened low and closed low without any expression. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index continued to fall after yesterday's diving performance.
The liquor sector continued to perform poorly. Gu Junhao was in the trading room, watching traders selling their liquor stocks while being forced to buy pharmaceutical stocks.
This feeling is really wonderful. Even though I know there will be a big drop, I have to buy it. And when I exchange stocks at high prices, the losses can only be paid by those investors who chased the high prices.
To a certain extent, most of the chips that pushed up the market were bought by funds. Compared with Gu Junhao who sold at high levels, he only had to bear short-term losses.
The most terrifying thing is to add positions at high levels. It would be even worse if you encounter a black swan.
Throughout the day, there were very limited hot spots on the market. Liquor and real estate continued to see the largest declines. Xincheng Holdings once hit the daily limit in the late trading, leading to a sharp decline in the real estate sector.
The year 2018 is a turning point for real estate companies. Lao Wang, who is now thinking about privatizing and delisting from the Hong Kong stock market and returning to the A-share market, does not know what the outcome of his commercial real estate empire will face in the future.
The gears of fate began to turn in the spring of 2018.
On June 9 last year, Daizi transferred all of its 14.07% stake in Vanke to Shenzhen Metro for 29.2 billion yuan.
After acquiring 15.29% of the shares of the original largest shareholder, plus 14.07% of Belt's shares, Shenzhen Metro finally held 29.36% of Vanke's shares, exceeding Baoneng's 25.4% of shares and became the largest shareholder.
Daizi spent a total of 36.27 billion yuan to buy these shares of Vanke, but the transfer price was only 29.2 billion yuan. Although it is not known what the meaning behind this is.
But judging from the accounts, Belt actually lost 7.07 billion yuan. After all, these shares in the secondary market were collected with real money.
However, when asked by reporters whether they were unwilling to accept the loss of more than 7 billion yuan, Belt showed that they were wealthy and powerful. They would never do anything unwillingly, and all they did were pleasant things.
It seemed that this loss was within his expectations.
Baoneng was eliminated, Daibei suffered huge losses, and the first thing Shenzhen Metro did after taking over was the resignation of another Lao Wang. The real estate industry has been unpredictable in the past two years.
After Lao Wang left and Baoneng lost the fight for control, it came into the public eye again after half a year, after today's closing.
At the close of today's trading, Vanke's independent director wrote a letter to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, suing Baoneng for illegal shareholding. The independent director pointed out that Baoneng's seven asset management plans have expired, and the current Baoneng is holding shares illegally and should be liquidated immediately.
On the surface, this was an eviction order issued by Vanke's new management to Baoneng, but no matter how Gu Junhao looked at it, it seemed like they were helping Baoneng to ship its products.
After the promotion of value investment in the third and fourth quarters of 2017, Vanke's shares also rose steadily amid the surge in blue-chip stocks.
As of January 24 this year, Vanke set a historical high price record of 42.24 yuan. In Gu Junhao's impression, this should also be the highest price in Vanke's history.
Even after several trading days of decline, Vanke's share price fell 5.73% at today's close, but still closed at 36.36 yuan.
It can be said that Vanke is still in the highest price range in history. Calculated based on the holding cost of 19.83 yuan, its profit is as high as 83.36% at today's closing price!
At current prices, Baoneng’s profit exceeds 40 billion yuan!
When the company was making huge profits, they forced Bao Neng to sell off his stocks in the name of justice; no matter how you look at it, this seemed like helping Bao Neng to ship out his stocks, rather than a real order to evict him.
Under such conditions, even if Vanke's stock price plummets due to Baoneng's share reduction, investors seem to be helpless.
For Vanke, this can be considered a win-win situation; Baoneng is gone and the stock price has fallen, which seems to be what they have always wanted to do.
Junshi Capital did not participate in the rise of Vanke and real estate at the end of 2017. Judging from the trend, Vanke's highest increase in this round was as high as 50%, which was a considerable profit.
Some other real estate stocks also saw very good growth, with some even doubling in value.
However, since he had already decided not to invest in the real estate sector, Gu Junhao thought that he should exit completely and not be blinded by the current increase.
For an industry that has already passed its high-speed growth period, it does not make much sense for Junshi Capital, which has existing capital reserves, to just try to get a rebound.
In Gu Junhao's opinion, instead of investing huge amounts of money to try to gain a 50% increase but bear the risk of the stock being cut in half, it would be more cost-effective to use a small amount of money to invest in monster stocks.
At least, if the stocks soar, their profits will not be low, but a small loss is nothing for Junshi Capital.
No matter how good the performance is or how strong the fundamentals are, blue-chip stocks at high positions are still a knife that kills people without bloodshed.
The so-called value investment just means that you buy the right value.
Buying an item worth 50 yuan with 10 yuan and selling it at around 50 yuan is called value investing.
But using 1,000 yuan to buy an item worth 100 yuan is not called value investing, this is called a bag holder!
On Wednesday, January 31, the Shanghai Composite Index continued yesterday's decline, closing at 3480.83 points, falling below 3500 points.
Although the index rose by 5.25% for the whole month, it retreated by as much as 100 points in the last three trading days, which is still very scary.
The ChiNext Index fell 1% in the month, closing at 1735.06 points. While it fell for four consecutive days at the monthly level, it once again lost the 60-day line position.
Due to the sharp rise in liquor prices over the past half month, Junshi Price Investment suffered heavy losses in the last three trading days when liquor prices retreated.
However, the net value was still raised to 2.6954 this month, up 1.9% from last month.
Since Gu Junhao took over in March 2016, until the end of January 2018, Junshi Price Investment has increased by 169.54%, still firmly ranking first in the historical growth list of public funds.
Although the historical performance is still very impressive, this is the fourth time that Junshi Price Investment has underperformed the sectors in which it holds heavy holdings since October.
This month, Junshi Price Investment underperformed all major indices, and what was even more unexpected was Junshi No. 2.
Compared with the excellent performance in 2017, the net value performance of Junshi No. 2 this month has greatly surprised the market.
Although Junshi Price Investment underperformed the index this month, it still had a growth rate of 1.9%. The net value performance of Junshi No. 2 of 1.5147 was only an increase of 0.07% compared with last month!
After a month of big gains, the net value of Junshi Value Investment has hardly changed, which surprised investors and the market.
"For a fund of more than 40 billion, there is almost no fluctuation in a month. There are only two possibilities. One is that a certain stock that is almost fully invested in has been suspended, and the other is that Junshi No. 2 has been sold out!"
It is impossible for a fund of over 40 billion to hold a large position in a stock which is also suspended from trading. Therefore, the only explanation is that Junshi No. 2 is almost empty!
"How courageous! He dares to go short and executes according to his own judgment. It seems understandable that public funds have underperformed the sector for several months." Wang Chao stared at the net value of Junshi No. 2 and couldn't help but sigh.
Unlike ordinary investors who are concerned about the performance of Junshi Value Investment, private equity peers are more concerned about the performance of Junshi No. 2, because no one believes that Wang Ruoyu is capable of fully controlling a private equity fund of over 10 billion yuan.
Judging from the last early liquidation and fundraising of Junshi No. 2, the strategy of this fund is still controlled by Gu Junhao.
Colleagues naturally knew the reason why Gu Junhao had set the limit on public funds; however, Gu Junhao was so determined to implement his own opinion and empty out private funds.
Under the premise that the market has been rising for the whole month, even if we look at an adjustment, the index will at most fall to 3,000 points. In this case, there is no need to go short.
"I don't quite understand some of it. From the current perspective, the market does need adjustments, and the increase in the entire SSE 50 is indeed too high. But what exactly does being short mean? Another stock market crash?" Shi Xin replied, touching his chin.
" There won't be a stock market crash, right? There isn't any systemic risk at the moment. Even though the guy on the other side gets a little crazy from time to time, the impact is only short-term."
"I don't know what Mr. Gu thinks. The public funds under Mr. Gu hold stocks such as liquor and medicine, which are mainly defensive."
"The price of liquor has gone up so much, what kind of defense is it? Medicine can barely count as a defense."
"Haha, let me make a bet. Looking at the adjustment of liquor in the past few days, Mr. Gu must have reduced his holdings. In the next quarter, I guess his holdings will not be high."
After listening to Shi Xin's analysis, Wang Chao touched his chin and smiled, "It's really possible. This guy is very cunning. He previously invested heavily in Vanke , but later on, we couldn't even find his holdings."
"Anyway, we'll know from next month's trading. Mr. Gu still has a certain sense of the overall situation. It's just that this short position is really hard to understand."
"Let's wait and see before the Chinese New Year to see how low it can fall. Adjustments are bound to happen, and foreign markets are also showing signs of adjustment."
Compared with last year's Spring Festival, this year's Spring Festival is much later. February 15, 2018 is the Lunar New Year's Eve.
Trading of A shares will continue until February 14, which is Valentine's Day.
It is quite rare that Valentine's Day is on the day before New Year's Eve, so hotel business will be much worse.
Thursday, February 1st, is the statutory drop day.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell again by 0.97% today, and the stock index fell below the 20-day moving average.
The ChiNext Index fell 2.17%, and the index once again fell below 1,700 points to 1,697.39 points.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have been in the red for four consecutive days, with both markets experiencing large-scale declines. Today, more than 200 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets hit the daily limit. On the list of declines, the liquor sector still topped the list.
Many stocks experienced flash crashes during the trading session, and behind the flash crashes were the shadows of trust holdings. Under the new regulatory environment, trust companies' stock allocation business has been tightened.
At present, the trust plans among shareholders of some small and medium-sized companies are facing the problem of being unable to be renewed upon expiration. At the same time, stocks with high pledge rates among major shareholders and a large number of asset management products among circulating shareholders require special vigilance.
And just today, the A-share market gave birth to the first stock in history that was priced below one yuan, commonly known as a penny stock.
On the evening of January 30, *ST Hairun announced that the company expects to lose 2.37 billion to 2.84 billion yuan in 2017, and the company expects to be issued a delisting risk warning after the 2017 annual reporting year.
Two trading days after the announcement, Hairun’s share price officially fell below 1 yuan, with today’s closing price at 0.97 yuan, making it the first stock in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to break the 1 yuan mark.
According to A-share trading rules, if a stock's share price is below 1 yuan for 20 consecutive trading days, it will be forced to delist.
As a representative company of the photovoltaic market, ST Hairun once had its heyday. Before 2010, the country vigorously supported the photovoltaic industry, and Hairun once became a leading company in the industry.
However, with the end of a period of dividends and the introduction of relevant policies abroad, photovoltaic companies have fallen into certain difficulties in recent years, including Hairun.
Since falling into losses in 2015, Hairun has been involved in numerous lawsuits in recent years. The company's former chairman and major shareholder have even been subject to severe regulatory measures such as a five-year market ban by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
ST Hairun is destined to become the first stock in the history of A-shares to be delisted because its share price has been below 1 yuan for 20 consecutive trading days.
Its delisting is not only due to sudden changes in the industry and its own problems, but is also closely related to the change in the current market style.
The second half of 2016 and 2017 were the beginning of the start of major institutions flocking to blue chips, and the market style shifted from preferring small and medium-sized boards to blue chips.
In 2017, the trading volume of leading stocks in various industries in the A-share market accounted for nearly 10% of the total market share. Under this circumstance.
In an environment where funds are already biased towards large blue chips, Hairun implemented two high-dividend and high-stock-transfer plans when the stock price was extremely low, attempting to revive the stock price by hyping the concept of high-dividend and high-stock-transfer.
However, he ran into 641 again～～
To date, ST Hairun’s share price has fallen below 1 yuan. If it hadn’t been for a series of weird operations, it would have remained in the black for a few years and survived the industry’s cold winter.
Hairun may really have a chance to make a comeback, after all, it was once one of the largest crystalline silicon solar cell companies in the domestic photovoltaic industry.
At present, there are 35 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets whose share prices are below 3 yuan. In the coming year, can these stocks avoid becoming the next stocks to fall below 1 yuan and be delisted?
