Chapter 417 This winter is unusually cold
The trend in December 2016 was even more tragic than that in December 2015.
This month, except for the liquor sector, all other sectors are in decline. There are usually some liquor market trends at the end of the year, and liquor also performed relatively well at the end of last year.
After the end of December, the liquor sector once again achieved three consecutive positive monthly lines with an overall increase of 1.78%.
Maotai rose 4.72% this month, Wuliangye rose 8.69%, and Fenjiu, which had previously lagged far behind the first- and second-tier brands, led the first- and second-tier brands with a 9.59% increase this month.
With the increase this month, Fenjiu has officially stabilized above 25 yuan, the highest point in 2016. However, it is still more than 18% away from the high point in 2015, and is still the worst performing among the first and second-tier brands.
But no matter what, Fenjiu, which has three consecutive positive monthly lines, has officially embarked on an upward channel. As long as it can successfully stand firm on the 60-day line at the monthly level, it will be able to develop the same bullish trend as Maotai, Wuliangye and other stocks.
It has attracted big funds to pay attention to the liquor sector, and they will not miss out on the likes of Fenjiu.
After the trading ended on December 30, the A-share trading in 2016 officially came to an end.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 12.31% throughout the year, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 19.64% throughout the year, and the ChiNext Index fell 27.71% throughout the year.
Over the past year, the Shanghai Composite Index, which has fluctuated up and down, has only rebounded to around 3,300 points at most, which is a disappointing performance.
The most unlucky ones are still the retail investors. After a year of hard work, they failed to catch up with the big rebound in October and November, but suffered from the big drop in December.
At the end of the year, most people still fail to achieve the goal of making back their investment and are still in agony.
The surprising performance this year has been the low-priced blue-chip stocks, led by liquor, with the overall increase in the liquor sector reaching 27.39%.
Among them, the leading Maotai Liquor Industry has risen by as much as 53.15% throughout the year, and the annual line has shown a trend of three consecutive positive lines, which is an amazing performance.
After the stock market crash in January, no matter how the stock price of Maotai Liquor Industry fell back, it never fell below 200 yuan. The stock price rose to a maximum of 340 yuan and closed at 334.15 yuan at the end of the year.
Even if investors who bought Maotai at the highest point of 290 yuan last year had patiently held on to it until the last trading day before New Year's Day today, they would have earned more than 15% without taking into account dividends.
This is a considerable gain this year. Unfortunately, ordinary investors do not have much interest in these blue-chip stocks.
It seems that Maotai at around 300 yuan is very expensive now. Even buying one lot will cost more than 30,000 yuan. But what Gu Junhao knows is that at this price, no matter how much Maotai drops in the future, it will no longer be seen.
Therefore, the blue-chip market this year may cause greater damage to ordinary investors than in 2015. Even some investors who did not lose money in the stock market crash in 2015 suffered huge losses in 2016.
All this is because this year can be regarded as a year of change. The acceleration of new stock issuance throughout the year paves the way for the registration system.
The problems exposed in the bull market crash of 2015 have gradually started to change since this year.
Change also means changes in trading patterns, which will inevitably bring some pain. Retail investors who fail to keep up with market changes in a timely manner will naturally suffer the most.
For example, the high dividend and bonus share sector, which has been hit continuously throughout the year, is not completely ignored in the third and fourth quarters, but basically no even large speculators will favor it.
Retail investors who are still immersed in fantasies and trying to double their money will naturally suffer severe losses; investors who fail to withdraw in time may even be deeply trapped, and extreme individual stocks may even be at risk of delisting.
This is the ruthless part of the market. When the time/generation abandons you, it won’t even say hello to you.
Another change is that the so-called "Zhuang stocks" have basically had no room to survive since this year, and those who used to like to follow the Zhuang stocks have also begun to withdraw from the stage of history.
By the year before Gu Junhao was reborn, it could even be said that there were no manipulated stocks in the market.
The Wencheng Gang has become notorious this year, and it is only a matter of time before they are arrested.
However, in this cold winter, investors who participated in Junshi No. 2 and Junshi Value Investment felt the warmth brought by Gu Junhao.
On the last trading day of December, the overall scale of Junshi No. 2 was fixed at 11.368 billion yuan, with a net value rate of 8.1371 and a compound yield after ex-rights of 93.93%.
The net value of Junshi Price Investment in 2016 finally settled at 1.9449. Since Gu Junhao took over in March, it has achieved positive returns for 10 consecutive months.
In terms of full-year returns, Junshi No. 2 and Junshi Value Investment led the private equity fund and public equity fund rankings respectively, both ranking first in the year.
The number of investors in private equity funds is limited, and the rest are people who are not short of money, so it can only enrich a part of the population.
But Junshi Value Investment has more than 200,000 holders, especially some participants after the resumption of trading. Such a high annualized rate of return has given them a big surprise.
"Fuck, I didn't buy enough. It almost doubled in 10 months. I would have gone all in if I had known."
On the last day of December, Saturday morning, which was also the beginning of the New Year's Day holiday, Li Ze proudly posted in the group his holdings in Junshi Price Investment, which he bought on the first day of the resumption of trading.
Li Ze was just showing off when he said he didn't buy much. He was actually very lucky. After he covered his position, the cost of holding 900 lots of Longji shares dropped to 10.13 yuan.
When Junshi Price Investment was acquired by Gu Junhao, Longji Shares happened to rebound to around 12.80 yuan, so Li Ze reduced his holdings by 400 lots and took out 500,000 yuan to buy Junshi Price Investment.
Longji shares' holdings returned to 500 lots, but the rebound and reduction of more than 20% brought his cost down to 8.234 yuan.
After that, Li Ze never operated Longji Shares again and only paid attention to whether Junshi Capital Co., Ltd. had withdrawn from the list of the top ten circulating shareholders of Longji Shares.
Unfortunately, after two quarters and the issuance of additional shares, Junshi Investment Co., Ltd. was squeezed out of the top ten shareholders.
However, at that time, the share price of Longji Shares had dropped to a level higher than the level at which he reduced his holdings, so Li Ze simply didn't bother to care about it. Anyway, the holding cost was very low, so it didn't matter.
At the end of the year, Longji shares closed at 13.39 yuan, down 1.94% from last year, but compared with Li Ze's two purchase prices, it was still a profit.
The performance of new energy this year is average, and Li Ze’s stocks are not as prosperous as they were last year; but as the saying goes, there are always bright spots in the west. Unexpectedly, the fund sector gave him quite a surprise.
The investment of 500,000 yuan turned into 970,000 yuan before New Year’s Day!
"Damn! You Versailles bastard, you must have fallen into a money bucket in the past two years. You bought a fund and almost doubled your money. It's outrageous!"
"Haha, I didn't expect that I've had really good luck in the past two years, but it's mainly because I've kept the direction."
"Oh, if I had listened to Li Kuang and bought some funds, who would have thought that a public fund could almost double in a bear market."
"Yeah, I told you guys a long time ago not to invest in stocks, just buy some T's funds and sit back, but you just didn't listen."
"It's not exciting. Besides, we have never played with funds. The funds on the market are all scams for handling fees. Who knew Brother T's fund could rise so much."
"Then you should have started buying liquor in October. Brother T didn't sell liquor for two months in the third quarter when the price dropped. You should have rushed in, otherwise you would have lost money this month."
"Who the hell knew that liquor could rise so much? It was slightly adjusted for two months, and then rose sharply for three months. Maotai even only adjusted for one month."
"I can't afford it. The price is over 300 now. I think it has reached its limit. It has been rising for several years. Although there is a liquor boom during the Chinese New Year, it is already at a high point. Maybe I can go in and let Brother T take over."
"Oh, this year has been a mess. I missed out on Brother T's Shuangma Group and now I have to take over Sanjiang Group. It's fucking terrible!"
"Don't say it. I saw that Brother T's fund held Vanke, but I rushed in for a few days last month and lost 10% of my money. I did the same with Brother T. Was my approach wrong?"
"Oh, it's hard. I've lost money for another year. Brother T's fund is almost doubling. I don't dare to buy anymore."
"Don't be afraid. People who are afraid of heights are miserable. Wait until Brother T's fund falls a lot, then buy in."
"Come on, forget it. You've doubled your money, and it's your profit that matters. Of course you don't mind. But we're investing our principal."
"MD, they say that there is a period of enlightenment for novices, but your period of enlightenment is too long, Li Kuang. You have made money for two years in a row, and these were the two worst years in the market."
"What do you mean the worst two years? Wasn't the market pretty good in the first half of last year? You are just too greedy. I have discovered that short-term trading is not suitable for us."
…
There are many investors who have the same mood as Li Ze. Every New Year’s Day is a time for major inventory of A-shares, and the rankings of funds are also a focus of attention.
With the sluggish market conditions throughout the year, naturally only a small group of stock investors were able to make money. However, the investors who invested more than 200,000 yuan in Junshi Fund were very happy throughout the year.
No matter whether it is the group of people who were trapped and pretending to be ostriches before the acquisition, or those who entered on the day of resumption of trading, or those who bought in the middle and made regular investments, everyone is very happy on this New Year's Day.
I don’t know who first posted this year’s returns in the comment section of Junshi Value Investment Fund, and then more and more people followed suit.
For a while, the comment section of Junshi Price Investment Fund became a carnival for holders, and investors who bought in at various stages posted their holdings returns.
Among them, a slightly literary comment was pushed to the front. His profit was not the highest, and his buying position was not large, but he had the most likes.
"This winter is unusually cold, but Brother T gave us a little warmth. Thanks to Brother T, I will continue to hold Junshi Value Investment until my son is born."
When Li Xinyu sent the screenshot of this comment to Gu Junhao, Gu Junhao was at home with Zhang Yiru, who was already pregnant at this time.
After seeing this comment, Gu Junhao, who was also about to become a father, became curious, so he used some of his authority to see where the investor was from.
Judging from the background IP address, it was a certain retail investor from Zhangzhou City, Fujian Province. Gu Junhao, who had the same mood, was sincerely happy for him.
Perhaps, this is also one of the meanings of Junshi Value Investment’s existence, which is to bring certain happiness to investors.
