Chapter 376: Speculations on Personal Wealth
These two stocks are Tianqi Liye, which officially announced its performance this weekend, and Keheng Shares, which has been suspended.
Among the top ten shareholders listed by Tianqi Lili Industry, Junshi Capital Co., Ltd. ranked eighth among the top ten circulating shareholders with a holding of 4.5 million shares, accounting for 1.65% of the shares.
What is more interesting is that this time Junshi Capital followed Huijin, which ranked seventh among the top ten circulating shareholders of Tianqi Liye with a ranking of 2.51%.
Both stocks are among the top ten shareholders and are ranked after the national team. It can only be said that Junshi Capital is really serious about participating in the market rescue!
The annual report released by Keheng Holdings, which followed Tianqi Liye, made everyone even more excited. Junshi Capital Co., Ltd.'s Junshi No. 2 Mixed Select ranked fourth among the top ten circulating shareholders with a shareholding of 3.98%!
It should be noted that this company is currently in the suspension stage, and after the suspension it announced a series of major favorable news on acquisitions and restructuring. Judging from the previous shareholder rankings, Junshi Capital did not appear among the top ten shareholders of these two companies in the fourth quarter of last year.
This means that Gu Junhao started building positions in January or February of this year. Judging from the net value curve rate of Junshi No. 2 since November last year, it is very likely that he started to bottom-fish and build positions after the big drop in February. It can be said to be an accurate bottom-fishing!
Of course, it is not ruled out that Gu Junhao had not bought these two companies before, and he may have started to increase his holdings in February, but in any case, this is a very accurate bottom-fishing.
Gu Junhao’s fans were quite excited at this moment!
"Wow! Brother T appeared in the top ten shareholders of three companies in one weekend. This is amazing. Brother T dares to buy a large amount of stocks."
"Photovoltaics, lithium batteries, is Brother T optimistic about new energy? All three stocks are heavily invested."
"Keheng shares are a bit exciting. They are accurately buying at the bottom. Could it be that they have some inside information?"
"What inside information? His fellow villager just went in to operate the sewing machine. Who dares to disclose the inside information so publicly at this time? Isn't this courting death?"
"Exactly. Is it difficult to admit that others are excellent? If it is really an inside story, you might as well say that Brother T's idea of rescuing the market is consistent with that of the national team. The two stocks appeared after Huijin, which is quite interesting."
"Haha, this shouldn't be considered inside information. Everyone basically knows which stocks the national team has bought. Brother T's information channels are definitely faster than ours, so it's not uncommon for him to buy the same stocks."
"Haha, Brother T's colleagues always criticize him for being arrogant and having no emotional intelligence. Look at the proportion of shares he bought, they are all ranked behind those of the national team. You tell me this is called having no emotional intelligence?"
"Hey, what you said above is true. The heavy holdings show that you are seriously participating in the market rescue, but the shareholding ratio does not exceed that of the national team, so it does not seem so outrageous. Brother T's EQ is very high!"
"Those people in the fund circle are smearing Brother T just because Brother T has good performance, and private equity funds do not charge management fees if they lose money. This is destroying people's jobs. If I were in his shoes, I would also smear him."
"Unconsciously, Brother T has become one of the top ten shareholders of listed companies. It's really scary to think about it. It's been less than three years. One company can be considered an exception, but three in a row really shows that Brother T has the strength now."
"We don't know how many companies have not yet released their annual reports. With a scale of more than 6 billion, I wonder how many companies will have Junshi No. 2 among the top ten shareholders."
"Damn! I just checked Keheng shares. It was suspended due to acquisition and restructuring. It will take off after it resumes trading. Brother T is going to get rich!"
"It should be said that Junshi No. 2's customers have made a fortune. Brother T has made a fortune a long time ago and doesn't care about the 100 million or 200 million. You can see that all the Longji shares in his personal account have been transferred to the company."
"Nah, some time ago, someone criticized Brother T for resigning and running a public offering because he was afraid that Junshi No. 2 would lose money. Look at this precise bottom-picking technique. How could he lose money? That's bullshit!"
“I am increasingly looking forward to the performance of Junshi No. 2’s net value this month, although it has nothing to do with me!”
"The big dog owners have made a fortune again! Why can't it be our turn?"
"The one above can go buy 125,700. That's Brother T's public offering fund. The current yield is 13%. There's still a chance to get on board."
"All in! All in 125,700! Drink soup with Brother T."
Compared with the enthusiasm of fans, colleagues in the industry clearly realized at this moment that Gu Junhao has become a force that cannot be ignored in the fund circle.
It is unknown how many of them are able to appear in the top ten shareholders of three listed companies in a row, and how many others have not been announced or whose shareholding ratio is not even in the top ten.
The three stocks on the list currently have a combined market value of 1.2 billion yuan, and the two stocks with the largest market value are entirely owned by Junshi Capital's proprietary trading account. This is Gu Junhao's real personal wealth.
Judging from the time of Junshi Capital’s intervention in Tianqi Liye, Junshi Capital’s holding cost should be around 110 yuan, or even no more than 110 yuan. Combined with the current stock price, the profit has exceeded 40%.
The annual report released this weekend gave the market a new understanding of Gu Junhao's wealth and the valuation of Junshi Capital.
Since Junshi Capital is not a listed company and does not need to release a formal annual report to the public, the outside world does not know the specific profits of Junshi Capital and Gu Junhao himself in 2015, but the rough data can still be estimated.
According to the data when Junshi No. 1 was liquidated and the scale of Junshi No. 2 when it was first settled, the total profit of the two funds plus Gu Junhao's own public operations may be as much as 1.5 billion yuan.
There are three main methods for valuing private equity: income approach, market approach and cost approach.
The income method is an absolute valuation method, which mainly refers to the value obtained by discounting the expected future income. The market method is a relative valuation method, which involves the valuation of companies in the same industry or the valuation of recent similar transaction cases.
The cost method is relatively simple. It mainly relies on the evaluation of the company's assets and liabilities by the appraisal agency, and obtains the valuation by subtracting the sum of the market values of the liabilities from the sum of the market values of the assets.
But no matter which valuation method is used, the company under Gu Junhao's name, even if calculated using the most underestimated method and the most superficial book figures, is definitely worth more than 2 billion yuan.
In just less than three years, Gu Junhao has grown from an ordinary young man to a man with a net worth of over 2 billion yuan. The rapid expansion of his assets is astonishing.
This may be the charm of capital, which can and change the fate of an individual or a group.
Gu Junhao, who was just a 24-year-old young man at that time, could already be regarded as another new generation of private equity tycoon in Ningbo. His success was different from that of most hot money.
There is no short-term operation case that can be called a classic, nor is it a frequent visitor on the Dragon and Tiger List. The operation methods have been very institutional from the beginning. The first fund was listed with difficulty relying on industry-disrupting terms and the support of several large funds.
Afterwards, it attracted market attention by routinely announcing the specific changes in net value once a week, until the final liquidation with a profit of up to 22 times, which finally completed its transformation.
Not to mention his talent for stocks, since the founding of the company, he has been making steady progress step by step while always staying in the public eye, maintaining a certain popularity while keeping its due mystery.
This kind of sense of propriety is really not like that of a young man who came out of an orphanage and has never seen the world. Especially this time, he followed the national team to participate in the rescue of the market. The strange purchase of shares actually followed the national team. It is hard not to pay attention to it.
This kind of person either has a master guiding him or he is gifted. Compared with giftedness, as a veteran who has been in the fund circle for many years, I prefer to believe that there is a master behind Gu Junhao, but he has not surfaced.
…
A-shares also have their own relevant rules for the specific disclosure time of quarterly reports, annual reports and semi-annual reports. Whether it is the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (including the ChiNext), the disclosure time of official financial reports of all sectors is the same.
The quarterly report is given one month to prepare, which means that the first quarter report must be released by the end of April at the latest. The semi-annual report is given two months to prepare, and must be released before the end of August.
As for the annual report, the preparation time is four months.
So under normal circumstances, the annual report and the first quarter report must be officially disclosed before April 30, the semi-annual report must be disclosed before August 31, and the third quarter report must be disclosed before October 31.
These are all subject to hard and fast regulations, with no room for bargaining. Once the formal disclosure in the financial statements is not completed within the prescribed time, the company may even be at risk of being forced to be ST. Some companies that fail to publish annual reports may even be delisted.
Another thing is the annual report preview. All sectors must disclose it conditionally before January 31. As for the Science and Technology Innovation Board that will be launched later, its annual report express must be disclosed unconditionally before February 28.
As for what constitutes conditional mandatory disclosure, the conditions are as follows: first, the net profit is negative; second, the net profit increases or decreases by 50% or more year-on-year; third, turning losses into profits; fourth, in the annual report, non-recurring items are negative or the main operating income is less than 100 million yuan.
It is generally more common for net profit to increase or decrease by more than 50% year-on-year. Assuming that today is January 31st, if the company has not disclosed its annual report forecast today, then you can judge in advance whether the operating conditions of the company you are concerned about are not as good as expected.
Regardless of whether investors can understand the data in the annual report, they should at least have a corresponding understanding of the disclosure time of these major reports, otherwise the risk of stepping on landmines during the reporting period will be very high.
As for how to understand the annual report data, this cannot be generalized; sometimes a company that is losing money is not necessarily a bad company, and sometimes a company that is growing in profits is not necessarily a good company. If the profit growth is lower than expected, or if the fundamentals of the industry have changed, the company will still fall.
Of course, some unscrupulous companies often have a sudden change in their performance, and the official financial statements are very different from the previous forecasts. This is somewhat uncontrollable, and if you really encounter it, you can only admit defeat.
When you are in the world, everyone has stepped on a few landmines. In his previous life, Gu Junhao had bought delisted stocks. This is normal. It is enough to try to avoid losses on heavily invested stocks.
There are also some good companies that publish their operating reports every month. Although the stock prices of such companies may not rise a lot, at least the probability of failure is relatively small.
If the amount of money earned each month is announced to the public, we can roughly judge how much money the company earned in a quarter or a year, and whether it meets expectations. If it does not meet expectations, we can stop losses in time.
Compared with the annual report data, the first quarter report data released in the same period is actually more worthy of attention. The annual report can only represent the operating data of the previous year, while the first quarter report represents a new life this year and often determines the stock price trend of a listed company within a year.
