Chapter 354: Gu Junhao's Stock Picking Style
As the saying goes, the New Year comes after Laba Festival. This Sunday is the eighth day of the twelfth lunar month, which can be considered a festival. I don’t know whether it is to avoid causing trouble for investors or for other reasons, but the market news was relatively calm this weekend.
The management has rarely reflected on itself, and there have also been a few minor positive news releases. After the first half of 2016, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points, and the market has gradually emerged from its previous panic.
Investors seemed to have expected this week's decline and did not show any special emotions; however, as the Lunar New Year approaches, most investors' focus is no longer on stock trading.
Looking at the recent market trends, investors are still in a wait-and-see mood, and since the circuit breaker, the national team's support for the market has become increasingly weak.
Although the three major indexes all rose to varying degrees whenever the national team violently supported the market, their trends eventually returned to their original positions the next day or even less than the next day.
In Gu Junhao's view, this is actually a good thing, which fully demonstrates that the market has gradually got rid of the shadow of the national team and the trend has begun to return to normal.
We cannot expect the national team to come out to support the market every time there is a big drop. A mature investment market should not be like this. It is normal only when institutions and retail investors voluntarily participate in transactions.
On January 18, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low, continuing the low opening trend of last Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 2847.54 points, directly falling below last year's policy bottom of 2850.
Below the 3,000 point level, after nearly five trading days of volatility, the Shanghai Composite Index could not avoid falling back to the 2,850 point level.
The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and broke the previous low in the call auction, which seemed to have made investors in the entire market breathe a sigh of relief, suggesting that all the negative news had been exhausted.
After trading started, the index only touched 2844.70 points and opened low before starting to fluctuate higher. Although the trading volume has shrunk a lot, judging from the market, it is much more active than last week.
In the rebound, small and medium-sized start-ups took the lead, while heavyweight stocks still performed relatively poorly. Compared with the small and medium-sized start-ups that suffered huge declines in the previous period, heavyweight stocks seemed to be in a state of being subsidized.
In fact, in Gu Junhao's view, the share prices of some heavyweight blue-chip stocks currently below 3,000 points have basically returned to normal valuation levels.
Maotai's share price has rebounded sharply since it fell to a low of 195.51 yuan last Thursday. It opened at 198 yuan today. Maotai, which is below 200 yuan, is definitely worth investing in.
The share price of Wuliangye has fallen to 23.60 yuan. In fact, these stocks can already be bought at the bottom, but that's how A-shares are. Under extremely bearish conditions, even if individual stocks have fallen to normal valuation levels, share prices will continue to fall as usual.
However, Gu Junhao doesn't want to wait any longer. As of today, Junshi No. 2 will fully participate in the bottom-fishing market.
Gu Junhao naturally has a rough idea of where the market bottom of the index is, but this is not the case for individual stocks. It is inevitable that some strong stocks will bottom out ahead of time.
This is the case with Tianqi Liye, for example. After a sharp drop in the first week of the new year, Tianqi Liye achieved a substantial rebound last week, with its share price rising 20.48% in a week. The support at the 20-day line of the weekly chart is still very solid.
This is a strong stock. Whether it is adjusting or rebounding, it will be one step faster than the index. The liquor sector has rebounded for several consecutive years, and with the improvement of performance, its trend this year seems to be the same.
As for weak stocks, even if the index has truly bottomed out and rebounded, their performance will still be unsatisfactory, and there may even be a new bottoming process.
Judging from the opening performance of today's index and the trend of the favorite stocks, Gu Junhao decided not to wait any longer and will fully intervene in bottom fishing starting this week.
After observing the trends of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices and individual stocks for half an hour, Gu Junhao picked up the notebook on the table and said to everyone in the trading room: "Lao Guo and Lao Zhang, you two continue to build positions. Everyone else, come over for a short meeting and assign tasks."
Lao Guo and Lao Zhang are the two newly hired traders Guo Yunlin and Zhang Muye. They established positions in Keheng Co., Ltd. and Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. respectively and have their own tasks.
Gu Junhao's unexpected shout startled everyone. It was the trading time period, but no one expected that he would ask everyone to stop watching the market and start assigning tasks.
Despite this, everyone is still quite excited, which means that starting today, everyone has been assigned specific trading tasks.
With specific trading tasks, there will be commissions based on performance, and it is possible that you can even earn enough to cover the New Year expenses before the Chinese New Year. Among them, the four new traders are the most excited.
After the new year, Junshi No. 2 added a total of six new traders, including Wang Ruoyu and four others, a total of ten people. Except for Guo Yunlin and Zhang Muye who were assigned specific tasks, the other four have not yet officially traded.
The four people are: Huang Ji, Tao Cheng, Yang Lin and Xiao Jing. The six traders come from all over the country and Shen Boyu spent a lot of money to find them.
All six people have experience in private equity fund management in their careers and have excellent personal resumes. As Junshi Capital becomes more famous and the scale of its funds increases, Shen Boyu has found it easier to recruit personnel than before.
Today, in Ningbo, Junshi Capital is qualified to recruit basic trading personnel, and the number of people it can recruit is becoming more and more outstanding.
"I observed the market this morning and the probability of further adjustments still exists, but it doesn't matter anymore. The New Year is coming soon, and we have to complete the position building task before the New Year. Let me assign specific tasks."
After everyone sat down, Gu Junhao said, then he opened his notebook, which contained the investment targets he had selected before and the position allocation.
"In addition to the two stocks that are being built, the fund account currently has three other holdings, namely Vanke A, Maotai Liquor and Wuliangye."
Regardless of the suspension of Vanke, Maotai's position is about the same. Wuliangye currently has a holding value of less than 400 million yuan. On the basis of matching positions, there is still room for increase.
"Mr. Gu, are you going to start building a position?" Cao Wenxun continued with a smile. In terms of age, the new employees were not older than Cao Wenxun. He was considered the big brother in the trading room.
After half a year of running-in, Cao Wenxun has basically gotten used to Gu Junhao's style. A trader not only needs to have rich trading experience, but also needs to be accustomed to the basic manager's operational thinking, so that he can achieve the level of full cooperation.
By privately reviewing a series of stock holdings before Junshi No. 1 and Junshi No. 2, Cao Wenxun has gained some insights and experiences of his own.
Junshi No. 1's holdings are mainly small and medium-sized growth stocks , while Junshi No. 2 is more inclined towards large blue chips. It seems that the two are contradictory, but in fact they are also normal choices.
Junshi No. 1 had a relatively small initial scale and used small and medium-sized growth stocks as its breakthrough point, which is understandable, but Junshi No. 2 is just the opposite.
Moreover, these stocks all have one common feature, that is, their fundamentals are stable, their performance is excellent or there is a reversal of fundamentals. From this point of view, it can be seen that Gu Junhao still focuses on stability.
In Cao Wenxun's view, Gu Junhao's stock selection characteristics are that based on the fundamentals of individual stocks and sectors, he chooses some stock targets for left-side holding in combination with the current market hotspots, and then holds them patiently through wave-like operations.
This hot spot is not a hot spot in short-term trading, but a main trend throughout the year or a certain stage, and its life cycle is relatively long.
For example, the Internet finance sector from 2013 until before the stock market crash, and the securities sector after Junshi No. 2 was launched in 2014.
These sectors have relatively long life cycles, and Mr. Gu’s left-side trading model allows him to hold these target stocks at extremely low costs with a good attitude, and they can withstand shocks and not be thrown off the train.
During the holding process, combined with the flexibility of private equity funds, through traders' intraday operations and wave-like increase and decrease of positions, the holding cost can be reduced and the bottom chips can be increased.
And every time he bought an individual stock, he seemed very bold. For example, in the cases of Vanke A and Maotai Liquor, Vanke A's holdings even exceeded 1 billion in market value at its peak, and the same was true for Maotai.
Steady stock selection, bold swing operations and accurate grasp of the overall situation have resulted in excellent performance for the two funds.
"He is such a contradictory person. His ideas of stock selection and position building are all based on stability, but his operations are very bold. The key is that he has a very accurate grasp of the overall situation." Cao Wenxun thought to himself as he looked at Gu Junhao who was flipping through a notebook.
Moreover, he was very excited inside, and at an impromptu meeting during today's intraday trading, Mr. Gu gathered all the people who had no trading tasks together to discuss the establishment of fund positions.
It seems that this should be the main trend of Junshi No. 2 this year. Maybe I can follow Mr. Gu’s position building action and make a move.
Gu Junhao's silence on the fund for two and a half months, coupled with the addition of so many people, made Cao Wenxun, who originally didn't want to operate his personal account privately, feel itchy again.
"It shouldn't be a problem to buy 40,000 or 50,000 yuan to follow the trend. I won't let my wife do it this time. I'll do it privately to make some pocket money."
