Chapter 322 Black Monday
The stock market crash-like decline has caused huge losses to the market, which no participant can avoid. After the end of this week's trading, the same is true for personal accounts, proprietary accounts and Junshi No. 2, which publishes its net value on a regular basis.
However, for Junshi Capital and Junshi No. 2 investors, the suspension of Wuliangye at this time is a lucky thing, which has slowed down the decline in the net value of Junshi No. 2 Fund in the short term.
This week, Vanke A fell 6.96% to 13.91 yuan, while Maotai Liquor Industry plummeted 11.26%, with its share price officially falling below the 200 yuan mark to 186.33 yuan.
If calculated based on the decline of Maotai Liquor Industry, if there had been no suspension, Wuliangye’s losses would have been at least over 40 million yuan. Even the huge shareholder of Home De Liquor would not have been able to withstand this.
The premise for ensuring that the net value of the fund does not change much is that the stock price does not fluctuate much. If there is a sharp drop in the same period, it will not work.
Junshi No. 2's Maotai Liquor Industry has currently suffered a floating loss of nearly 12%. If the environment did not allow it, Gu Junhao would not have opened a position during this period even if the stock price was cheap.
When stocks are falling, especially during a stock market crash, it is very dangerous to buy at the bottom.
Many investors often die on the road of bottom fishing.
However, Vanke A is still profitable. The share price of Vanke A has recently fluctuated around 13 yuan to 16 yuan, and this state remains regardless of how much the market falls.
Judging from the stock price trend, insurance funds should have started to build large positions during this period.
With the support of large funds, the stock price can remain stable in a controllable range.
The two stocks exceeded nearly 60 million yuan within a week. In addition, Home De Lisboa Holdings had already cleared its holdings. As a result, the net value of Junshi No. 2 Fund fell sharply this week. The overall scale dropped to more than 3.144 billion yuan, and the net value rate returned to 6.2892.
Within a week, all the gains of the previous two weeks were basically lost and returned to the level at the end of July.
Since Gu Junhao announced his return on July 8, there has finally been a pullback, and it is the largest one yet .
The maximum range mentioned here refers to the amount of loss within a week, not the loss rate.
The net asset value ratio of Junshi No. 2 announced this week finally gave the market a sigh of relief.
Otherwise, this kind of net asset value rate that keeps growing regardless of the trend is really suffocating.
"Haha , Brother T finally fell once, just like us, he couldn't escape the stock market crash."
“I feel relieved when I see that Brother T also didn’t escape the stock market crash. It’s not that I’m not good enough, it’s the market that’s not good enough.”
"He lost more than 60 million. This should be Brother T's biggest loss, right? The drawdowns were relatively small before."
"The above poster, don't just look at the loss of more than 60 million. Put it in the net value of Junshi No. 2, Brother T's loss this week is only about 2%, which is still very strong."
"You're the only one who has eyes? I don't know that Brother T only lost less than 2%? I'm just talking about the amount! If you lost more than me, I'll be on the same level as Brother T."
"Haha, he was anxious, but I felt relieved when I saw Brother T was still on the field."
"Yes, Brother T can lose more than 60 million in a week, which means his position must be very high. As long as Brother T is still trading, I am not afraid. At worst, I can just lie down and pretend to be dead."
"The pullback of Brother T's fund shows us the force majeure of the market. Even someone as strong as Brother T can't resist the stock market crash. No wonder he cleared his position before 5178 points last time."
"That makes sense, so don't blindly believe Brother T. A market in a stock market crash is dangerous. Try not to trade if you can. At least reduce trading during this period of time."
"I understand the reason, but I just can't control my hands, what can I do?"
On Saturday, dozens of listed companies disclosed the shareholdings announced by China Securities Finance Corporation and Huijin Investment, including five banks, an insurance company and several securities companies. Based on the closing price, Huijin Investment Corporation's total shareholdings were about 25 billion yuan.
On Sunday, several companies issued announcements in succession to disclose the shareholdings of Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. and China Securities Finance Corporation. This centralized disclosure can be regarded as the first time that the national team's shareholdings have been revealed.
In the event of a stock market crash, the collective disclosure of shareholdings and the transparent information will enable ordinary investors to have a higher level of identification and play a role in clarifying expectations.
With this collective appearance, it is expected that a considerable number of companies will disclose their shareholdings in China Securities Finance Corporation and China Investment Corporation in the future.
The purpose of doing this is not only to stabilize the market but also to tell ordinary investors that the national team is rescuing the market by buying real money. The purchase volume of China Securities Finance Corporation alone is as high as 25 billion yuan.
What major companies have done is nothing more than stabilizing investors' mentality. As for the results, we will have to wait until next Monday to see whether the Shanghai Composite Index can hold the 3,500 point mark. The market will give the answer.
On August 24, 2014, the call auction ended. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets did not show any confidence in the national team's shareholdings announced over the weekend. Instead, they were extremely pessimistic.
The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3373.48 points, with a gap down of 3.98%. The ChiNext Index opened at 2222.54 points, with a gap down of 5.37%.
The market was in such a state in the early morning call auction, not to mention holding the 3,500 point level. Such a start in the two markets caused great panic in the market.
Maotai Liquor and Vanke A's share prices opened sharply lower in the morning. Home De Liquor, which had already been cleared, hit the limit down. Tonghuashun, which was filed for adjustment by the China Securities Regulatory Commission last Thursday, was close to the limit down for the third consecutive trading day this morning.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are bleak. Compared with last week's stock market crash, today's opening is even more depressing, with large areas of stocks opening sharply lower and hitting the limit down. There is no courage to run away.
"Fuck! This is a bloodless murder. Today is over."
"How can I operate this? My stocks have hit the limit down and I can't even sell them."
"Should we buy at the bottom? If the price limit is lifted, we will make a lot of money. Maybe the national team will make a move during the trading session."
"Brother, I advise you to be kind. You are still trying to trick people into selling at this time. The national team has already bought so much. I guess they are out of money. Otherwise, they wouldn't announce their holdings. This is obviously to get retail investors to take over."
"That's the logic. After they buy, they just sit there and wait for us to pull the trigger or take over. They can hold on to it for as long as they want. They can sell it to us when they make a profit."
"Anyway, I don't dare to buy anymore. As for asking me to sell off, I definitely won't do it. I won't fight them to the end without financing."
At 9:30, official trading began. There was no sign of a rebound in both markets. The Shanghai Composite Index fell rapidly to 6%, and the ChiNext Index fell to more than 7%.
The sky was covered with dark clouds, and individual stocks kept hitting the limit down. Maotai Liquor Industry quickly fell below 180 yuan, and its floating losses further expanded.
However, in Gu Junhao's opinion, being able to buy a Maotai for less than 200 yuan is a very rare opportunity.
The period from 2012 to 2015 was a difficult period for the entire liquor industry, with the liquor index falling by a total of 22%. As the industry leader, Maotai's full-year growth forecast for this year is only 1%.
With such low growth expectations for industry leaders, it is understandable that a series of liquor stocks are unpopular this year.
Since 2016, the liquor industry has undergone a series of adjustments, and the entire industry has shown signs of recovery, truly achieving a reversal of difficulties.
Nowadays, the stock price below 200 yuan is very cheap in Gu Junhao's opinion. Junshi No. 2 has no plan to liquidate and can truly own Maotai for a long time.
At 10 o'clock, the Shanghai Composite Index's decline widened to more than 7%, and the ChiNext Index's decline widened to more than 8%, with almost all ChiNext constituent stocks hitting the daily limit.
Maotai's share price fell to 175.53 yuan, a drop of 5.8%.
"Be prepared. Today's sharp drop in Maotai is certain. Continue to increase your holdings today." Gu Junhao said to everyone who was staring at the market.
In the external markets, Asia-Pacific stock markets including Hong Kong stocks also plunged today. The recent stock market crash in A-shares was not an isolated incident today.
"Ah? Adding to positions in today's market? Isn't it too risky?" Cao Wenxun said with some confusion.
"It's okay. My current position is not high. If there is another sharp drop later, I will continue to increase my position. Where can I find Maotai for more than 100 yuan?"
"Okay." Cao Wenxun said helplessly. The fund manager has absolute authority and he was just giving a reminder.
At 10:11, the Shanghai Composite Index widened its decline again. More than 1,500 stocks in the two markets have hit the daily limit, and all tradable GEM constituent stocks have hit the daily limit.
Maotai Liquor Industry fell to 171.71 yuan, a drop of 7.85%. With funds continuously fleeing, the stock price also showed a trend of hitting the limit down.
At the critical moment, the national team stepped in to maintain the index, but even so, the decline could no longer be suppressed, and the Shanghai Composite Index no longer had the same vigorous rebound as before.
In the afternoon, as the peripheral Asia-Pacific stock markets plunged simultaneously, the Shanghai Composite Index's decline widened further, and the index hit the limit down during the session.
After struggling a bit in the afternoon, the ChiNext Index remained flat with a drop of more than 8%. The reason is that all ChiNext constituent stocks have hit their limit down.
In fact, after removing the impact of a series of suspended stocks, the ChiNext Index has already hit the daily limit down just like the individual stocks.
Maotai Liquor hit the limit down in the afternoon, which is rare.
Although the price of Maotai has fallen sharply after the stock market crash, it rarely hits the limit down. In a sense, the price of Maotai that hit the limit down today also has a preliminary bottoming trend.
To determine whether a stock that has been falling continuously has bottomed out, in addition to the bottom rebound limit up, the bottom limit down is also very important.
From the technical analysis point of view, if a stock continues to fall along the five-day line, its trend has been dominated by cross negative lines, and there are rarely negative lines with large volume and sharp declines.
You cannot buy at the bottom at this time. There is no real increase in trading volume during the stock's decline, which means that the stock price has not yet completed its decline.
Only after the stock price shows large ups and downs can you start to try to buy at the bottom.
Today, Maotai hit the limit down, which is very rare. Gu Junhao would naturally not miss this opportunity.
"Buy quickly, the price has reached the limit down, good opportunity, buy more this time, 24,000 lots, make up 40,000 lots."
"Okay." The trader acted quickly. Maotai's stock price and trading volume were enough to support the transaction of 24,000 lots. If it could not be bought today, it could be bought tomorrow.
Vanke A also fell sharply in the afternoon, but its stock price trend was obviously much stronger, hitting a low of 12.88 yuan in the afternoon, a drop of more than 8%; before Gu Junhao could react, it rose rapidly.
The buying volume of over 400 million in a short period of time quickly pushed Vanke's share price above 13 yuan, and the decline narrowed to about 5%.
With buy orders of 10,000 or 20,000 lots at any time, the stock price is different when it is supported by big funds. The stock price has not fallen below the cost line for the time being, so Gu Junhao does not need to rush to cover his holdings in Vanke.
The fight for equity is bound to be repeated. Judging from the recent trend, 13 yuan is a threshold for both sides to fight for. Whenever the price falls below 13 yuan, Vanke will quickly pull it back up.
After the second stock market crash, the real market bottom will be reached in the second half of this year. As for when to increase holdings in Vanke, Gu Junhao’s idea is to buy at a price below 13 yuan, and he does not want to increase holdings above 13 yuan.
Maotai's limit price did not last long. Later, with Gu Junhao's large-scale purchases, the limit price was opened. After a whole day of trading, Gu Junhao spent a total of 403.2 million yuan to buy 24,000 lots.
So far, Junshi No. 2 holds a total of 40,000 shares of Maotai Liquor, with a cost of 184.05 yuan and a closing market value of more than 678 million yuan.
Maotai closed at 169.64 yuan today, with its share price down 8.96%. Through substantial replenishment of positions, the floating loss was reduced to less than 10%.
At the same time, Maotai also became the first holding stock of Junshi No. 2. Although there is still room for buying, if the floating loss is kept within 10%, Gu Junhao does not plan to increase the holding again.
In Gu Junhao's principle of adding to positions, when the stock price has the possibility of turning from a floating loss to a floating profit within a day, that is, the floating loss is controlled above 10%, in most cases he will not add to positions.
The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3500, 3400 and 3300 points today, and even fell below 3200 points at one point during the session. It finally closed at 3209.91 points, barely maintaining the 3200 level.
The 8.49% drop also set the record for the largest single-day drop since February 2007. The ChiNext Index fell 8.08% throughout the day and closed at 2151.61 points.
Today, more than 2,000 stocks in the two markets hit the daily limit, and all the components of the ChiNext hit the daily limit. At the same time, stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region also suffered sharp declines today.
Stock markets in many European countries also plummeted today. Against this background, the U.S. stock market, which opened in the evening, could not resist the transmission effect of the overall decline in global stock markets.
As soon as the market opened on the 24th, the U.S. stock market fell rapidly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,089 points in just six minutes after opening, which also set the Dow Jones Industrial Average's largest single-day drop. Although it rebounded afterwards, it failed to turn around and rise.
Not only A-shares, but global stock markets experienced Black Monday today, which is a spectacle.
On August 25, the Shanghai Composite Index fell another 7.63%, falling below 3,000 points to 2,964.97 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 7.52% to 1,990.71 points.
Within one day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points and the ChiNext Index fell below 2,000 points. After more than 2,000 stocks hit the daily limit yesterday, more than 1,500 stocks hit the daily limit again today.
Maotai Liquor performed well today. Maotai opened at 167.46 yuan in the morning. The stock price only fell to 166.20 yuan during the panic phase at the opening, and then started to rebound.
Throughout the day, Maotai Liquor Industry surged 4.10% to 176.59 yuan. Vanke A continued to hold the integer of 13 yuan today, falling 1.44% to 13 yuan.
On the evening of August 25, the central bank once again announced a rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, and the China Financial Futures Exchange announced that it would take regulatory measures to ensure the stability of the stock index futures market and avoid excessive surges and plunges in market trends.
With the Black Monday in the global market on Monday and today's sharp drop that saw the index fall below an important threshold, the second round of rescue plans came into being.
