Chapter 319: Where is the Market Going?
On July 13, at the end of the day's trading, the Shanghai Composite Index finally regained 4,000 points with an increase of more than 2% after fluctuations, and the ChiNext Index also regained 2,600 points in the short term.
However, the market has become noticeably weaker than in the previous two trading days. The resumption of trading of individual stocks and the obvious signs of short-term profit-taking funds fleeing have made both markets feel obvious pressure.
The differentiation between the two markets was also serious today. As expected, Vanke A once again lowered its gains, with a total transaction volume of less than 7 billion throughout the day, and only rose by 0.87%. Maotai Liquor ended today's trading with a drop of 2.95%.
It has to be said that Maotai really did not receive recognition from big funds in 2015. Its stock price was as low as 171.47 yuan so far this year, and the highest so far is only 290 yuan on May 26.
Even if calculated from the lowest point to the highest point, in the bull market, when the major blue-chip stocks soared four or five times, its increase was less than 70%. Wuliangye's increase was even greater than his.
However, even so, Maotai also participated in rescuing the market during this round of stock market crash. Its dividend plan this year rarely included bonus shares. Stock conversion and bonus shares are rare in Maotai's history.
On July 17, which is this Friday, Maotai Liquor will officially pay out dividends, with one share for every 10 shares and an additional dividend of 43.74 yuan. As for Wuliangye, it had already distributed dividends on June 19, with a dividend of 6 yuan for every 10 shares.
Some first-line companies in the liquor industry are relatively generous in dividends. If you can participate at a low price and hold for a long time, there is still some value in participating.
…
On Tuesday, A-shares, which had clearly shown signs of fatigue yesterday, opened with huge divergences today. The Shanghai Composite Index engaged in a fierce tug-of-war around 4,000 points. The fierce struggle between bulls and bears also affected the trend of the ChiNext.
Tonghuashun opened at 85 yuan today, the same as yesterday's opening price, but the result was completely different. Yesterday it opened with a gap up of 2.68%, while today it opened with a sharp drop of 6.48%, and the stock price directly fell below the 20-day line.
"No need to look at it. Just clear out the stock today. A few daily limit increases are enough. We can look for other stocks later." Seeing Tong Huashun's performance, Gu Junhao said to Cao Wenxun.
These short-term funds have a keen sense of smell. Once they feel something is wrong, they will be the first to run away. This is what Tong Huashun did today.
However, Home De Lisboa shares remained strong today, opening higher again at 15.11 yuan in the morning session, with the share price rising by 3.35%. It has to be said that a "demon stock" is a "demon stock".
After the start of morning trading, nearly 20 million yuan of funds directly pushed the share price of Home De Liss Holdings to 16 yuan, and the stock price quickly rose by more than 6%. After a brief fluctuation of Home De Liss Holdings with an obvious acceleration trend, the share price closed at the upper limit price of 16.08 yuan again at 9:38.
After the ground-to-ceiling board, the stock price rose again for four consecutive days. Tonghuashun, which opened sharply lower, rose to 95.50 yuan in the morning, with an amplitude of more than 11%. However, with the impact of the Shanghai Composite Index's plunge, the ChiNext also plunged.
Tonghuashun started to plunge at 11 a.m., and its stock price plunged by more than 6% by the time of midday close. The stock price fell by 0.91%, breaking through the 90 yuan mark, and finally ended today's trading at 85.60 yuan, a sharp drop of 5.42% on the day.
The Shanghai Composite Index's plunge today has dealt a severe blow to market sentiment. Investors who had just regained a little confidence, when faced with such a plunge, the first reaction of investors whose confidence has not been fully restored is to run away.
This is true even for Gu Junhao's fans. Even though they know that Brother T is mainly engaged in medium- and long-term trading, it still cannot change the minds of most people to liquidate their positions again, not to mention that this time they are leaving with huge profits.
Although the current stock index is less than 4,000 points, it is still a long way from 5,178 points, and the current market bubble risk has also been squeezed to a certain extent in this plunge in capital deleveraging.
But a bubble is always a bubble. Although the risks have been released to a certain extent, they have not been completely eliminated, not to mention that investors' confidence has not been restored.
On Wednesday, July 15, the Shanghai Composite Index surged by more than 3% again today after yesterday's plunge, and the index barely held the 3,800 point mark. The ChiNext Index fell 4.99%, and the stock index fell below 2,600 points.
The bullish momentum was exhausted in all aspects today. In addition to the outflow of gains and the fact that Friday is the stock index delivery day, the delivery day effect appeared in advance today. Today, individual stocks once again hit the limit down. The A-share market once again faced the tragic situation of thousands of stocks hitting the limit down.
Among all the sectors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, only the banking sector rose. Both markets plummeted. Tonghuashun, which had already seen a large-scale capital outflow yesterday, unsurprisingly faced a limit down again today, with its share price at 77.11 yuan.
Fortunately, Gu Junhao sold out his last 20,000 shares of Tong Huashun yesterday. Although most of his holdings were sold out when the market was still in the red, and he only recovered 176 million yuan in funds in the end, it is better than another limit down today.
Even the popular stock Home Depot experienced a violent shock today, opening at 16.90 yuan. Home Depot opened higher again, and today was a terrifying day for the retail investors involved.
At 9:45 am, after a brief fluctuation just like yesterday, the share price of Home Depot once again hit the daily limit, but it was not followed by a smooth closure like yesterday.
Following the sharp drop in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the share price of Home Depot began to plunge rapidly, falling to 14.47 yuan at one point during the trading session, experiencing a thrilling ceiling and floor market.
However, with Wu Peng and other on-site funds continuing to buy to maintain the market, the share price of Home Depot once again rose from the floor price and finally closed at 17.01 yuan, up 5.78% on the day.
This is also the only stock among Junshi Group's holdings that closed in the green today. The rest of the stocks continued to fall sharply or even hit the limit down.
After experiencing thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit again, the market is particularly sensitive to rumors that the regulators are cleaning up margin financing. In the evening, rumors emerged that the China Banking Regulatory Commission had called a halt to margin financing; and the management is also particularly sensitive to off-market news.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission quickly came out to make a statement in the morning of July 16, issuing news that as of now, the margin financing business of banks, trusts and other institutions is still operating normally, leverage is driving the bull market, and the large-scale stock market crash caused by leverage.
The double-edged sword effect of leveraged funds is also vividly demonstrated. Although the major regulatory authorities will have a certain tolerance for leveraged funds for the sake of market stability, I believe that due to the influence of this incident, the market's supervision of capital allocation business will definitely become more and more stringent in the future.
The statement made by the China Banking Regulatory Commission has played a certain role in stabilizing the market to a certain extent. Coupled with the occasional actions of a certain team to maintain the market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have stopped falling today.
The Shanghai Composite Index barely held the 10-day moving average position with a 0.46% increase. In the following trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index has maintained a steady upward trend.
However, judging from the trading volume, it has never increased. Excluding the funds of a certain team, there is not much capital involved in the market transactions, including blue-chip stocks, and the differentiation among individual stocks is very obvious.
From the perspective of blue-chip stocks, first-tier blue-chip stocks have seen smaller increases or even started to fall. The market focus is still on the SME Board and the ChiNext Board. Most investors participating in the transaction are trying their best to avoid a certain team's field and choose to focus on short-term speculation.
The rescue team headed by the three major gold institutions played a crucial role in this round of rebound. However, this also led to the market quickly diving after leaving a certain team, causing the team to have to protect the market again.
During the period of market rescue, a certain team has held up a number of stocks in order to maintain the market. An interesting phenomenon is that once a stock is luckily held up by a certain team, it will often open with a big high or even limit up the next day.
However, after the formal trading, the stock price trend is often unsatisfactory. Large amounts of capital outflow cause the stock price to open high and close low , with huge intraday fluctuations.
After a few times, investors have become accustomed to this routine. Once the announcement of the stake increase is made, they will quickly flee the next day when the stock opens high, which also causes the reputation of a certain team to be damaged.
Most investors who are not very clear about the rules of the stock market thought that a certain team was cutting leeks and started to curse; there is no doubt that a certain team was cutting leeks, but the high opening and low closing after the placard was raised may not be done by them.
According to the Securities Law, major shareholders are not allowed to increase their holdings within three trading days after raising their stakes, and are not allowed to reduce their holdings within six months. If they want to reduce their holdings, they must issue a reduction announcement half a month in advance.
Therefore, once a placard is raised, a team will no longer be able to buy the stock within three trading days, and a team rarely raises its placard a second time. Most teams stop buying after raising their placard.
The reason for all this is nothing more than the lack of trust in the market. After experiencing the stock market crash, investors' confidence has been severely hit. Any disturbance in the market is enough to stir up their already very fragile nerves.
This also gives some groups an opportunity to take advantage of the situation. It will take time to figure out where the market is going.
