Chapter 311: Travel light and wait for the stock market crash
Since May 18, the Shanghai Composite Index has started a new round of forced-money rally, with the index breaking through from 4,300 points to above 4,900 points. Within eight trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by as much as 633.02 points, an increase of 14.69%.
The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive trading days. Under the huge amount of buy orders, short-term overbought conditions have become very serious. The market urgently needs a major adjustment to consume these overbought forces.
In fact, it is not only that the Shanghai Composite Index is seriously overbought and deviates from the five-day line, but also that Central Huijin Investment's large-scale reduction of its holdings in the four major banks should be enough to attract market attention. This is the first time that Huijin Investment has reduced its holdings in the four major banks.
According to public information disclosed by relevant data, Huijin reduced its holdings of ICBC and CCB in the A-share market on May 26, with the amounts being 1.629 billion yuan and 1.906 billion yuan respectively.
The national team's withdrawal is itself a topic worthy of market attention, but this time it was overshadowed by the fact that more than 400 stocks hit their daily limit yesterday.
Retail investors are still immersed in the beautiful wish of the index hitting 5,000 points and have no awareness of the risks.
But this does not mean that smart money has not discovered it. There is always no shortage of smart people in the market.
Under such circumstances, even if there is no big drop today, there will be one in the following trading days, so in Gu Junhao's view, the big drop on May 28 is not surprising.
In the morning session, after the call auction, both the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index opened slightly higher.
The ChiNext Index opened slightly lower. Before 10:30 a.m., the trends in both markets were stable.
The Shanghai Composite Index hit a high of 4,986.50 points, an increase of nearly 1%.
The ChiNext Index also surged by more than 1.2% at one point, with its highest reaching 3677.33 points.
The main funds used one hour of trading time to confuse a large number of retail investors. The 5,000 points and 3,700 points seemed to be within reach, and the beautiful expectations of the bull market gave people endless imagination.
At 10:38, the Shanghai Composite Index began to show signs of diving. In less than five minutes, the index plunged more than 1% to 4932.63 points, down 0.18%. The ChiNext Index and major sectors began to follow suit.
In fact, most retail investors are still unaware of the existence of risks at this moment.
I still believe that the index and individual stocks will fluctuate like the previous few days, and will eventually adjust within the day and continue to move upward.
This was the case even when the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen by 1.40% by midday close and had fallen below 4,900 points.
The intraday plunge entered an acceleration period since the afternoon opening. A series of financial stocks and Chinese-character stocks, which are mostly held by the national team, began to increase their diving intensity, and the stock index also showed a unilateral rapid decline.
At 2:30 p.m., the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen by more than 3.8%.
Most financial stocks, including securities, insurance and banks, began to hit the daily limit, and huge amounts of funds began to flee.
There was no rebound at all. At three o'clock in the afternoon, when the two markets closed, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 6.50%, a drop of more than 320 points in one day.
The ChiNext Index fell 5.39%, and the Shanghai Composite Index's daily turnover exceeded 1.25 trillion.
The three major financial sectors were the hardest hit, with the securities sector hitting the daily limit as a whole, the insurance sector falling by more than 6%, and the banking sector falling by more than 5%.
The One Belt One Road sector, which has been very popular recently, fell by more than 7%, and numerous stocks in the sector hit the daily limit.
There are many stocks that have hit the daily limit on the market, and among a series of falling stocks, there is the figure of a certain team.
These sectors are the most popular sectors in recent times, and a large number of retail investors gather here.
Before the stock market crash in 2015, Chinese-character stocks and big finance were not as despised as they are today.
As a retail investor, I would be embarrassed to go out and see people if I didn’t suffer a limit down today.
Dongfang Fortune, the only stock currently held by Gu Junhao, fell 7.16% today after a 6.52% drop yesterday. The share price has fallen from the highest level of 91.45 yuan that month to the current 72.90 yuan.
Zhongguo First Heavy Industries, which was liquidated yesterday, surged to 21.37 yuan this morning before falling 7.39%. The intraday amplitude exceeded 16%. Investors who rushed in in the early trading session suffered heavy losses.
Tonghuashun, which is in the same sector as Dongfang Wealth, is not much better off. Its share price has fallen from the highest point of 128.50 yuan in the month to the current 92.80 yuan, falling below the 100 yuan mark again.
Nowadays, a hundred-yuan stock has become a major hurdle for GEM constituent stocks, and there are not many stocks that can sustainably maintain a price above 100 yuan.
Today's market situation can be regarded as a preview before the collapse.
As for today's closing index of the Shanghai Composite Index, there is still about 550 points left before a real collapse.
To be honest, if you want to buy at the bottom, the returns are still good, but Gu Junhao no longer plans to buy at the bottom.
Everyone knows exactly who is behind this round of sharp drop. Considering the current size of Junshi No. 2, if you want to buy at the bottom, you can only go to their market to grab a share.
Having already made so much profit before and attracted widespread attention from the market, if one were to enter the market to take advantage of the situation at the final stage, it would be a bit foolish.
In less than a year, the total size of Junshi Capital's two funds has increased from the initial 540 million yuan to more than 3.4 billion yuan today, plus nearly 400 million yuan in earnings in personal accounts.
Excluding costs, Gu Junhao earned a net profit of more than 3 billion yuan in the market this year.
Although this amount of money is just a drop in the bucket for a certain team, making a net profit of more than 3 billion in less than a year is enough to attract attention.
Now that we have retreated in advance, there is no need to re-enter the scene to avoid causing trouble.
As for making another huge profit by shorting stock index futures during a market crash, Gu Junhao had never even thought about it. This was simply asking for trouble.
In Gu Junhao's opinion, the biggest reason why the fellow villager went in to operate the sewing machine might be related to this.
Of course, Gu Junhao was not quite sure about the specific reasons, it was just his guess.
And when there is a call to rescue the market and then re-enter the market, the impression left will naturally be different.
As for the remaining 30,000 shares of Dongfang Wealth, Gu Junhao was not too worried as there would be opportunities to reduce holdings and exchange stocks next month.
As for the next rotation, Gu Junhao has also thought about it, which is to avoid entering a certain team's field as much as possible.
It is not impossible to go to some sectors that are not receiving much attention, or even some monster stocks.
As long as you don't make trouble, no one will care how you cut the leeks.
On May 29, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets ended the day's trading with a positive line that was a golden needle probing the bottom.
The next day's trend seemed to be similar to the previous drop of more than 5%, which left countless hopes for new investors.
There is nothing that one bullish candle cannot change, if that doesn't work then use two.
Dongfang Fortune hit a low of 70 yuan today and closed at 74.29 yuan, ending this month's trading with a 1.91% increase.
In May, Dongfang Wealth no longer had the glory of April. Since entering the second half of trading, the stock price has continued to fall, and finally ended trading in May with a drop of 11.51% in the month.
As of the end of May, due to the high-level liquidation of Zhongguo No. 1 Heavy Industry and the high-level reduction of Dongfang Wealth, the overall scale of Junshi No. 2 finally reached around 2.718 billion yuan, with a net value of 5.4357.
In fact, as long as you don't make any unnecessary moves, based on the current market value of Dongfang Wealth, since it has fallen by 90%, the overall return of Junshi No. 2 can be maintained above 5. After the opening period in November, this net value will also be very dazzling.
After the end of May, for Gu Junhao, both the company and he himself can be said to be able to move forward with ease.
On a personal level, Gu Junhao has fully repaid the bridge loan and financing from the brokerage firm, and the company is operating with zero debt.
After the end of this month, Gu Junhao also sorted out and paid attention to the company's and his own personal financial situation. The current cash flow in the company's account is as high as 440 million yuan, and the personal cash holdings also exceed 380 million yuan.
The equity structure of Junshi Capital is quite simple. Currently, Gu Junhao holds 98% and the remaining 2% is under the name of the legal representative Zhang Mingde.
Zhang Mingde does not participate in the specific operations of Junshi Capital, and the shares under his name are actually held on behalf of Zhang Yiru.
Gu Junhao has the final say in the entire company.
That is to say, without taking into account the profits of Junshi No. 2, Gu Junhao's current cash flow that can be supported exceeds 800 million yuan, firmly making him a billionaire.
To be honest, although his personal holdings and fund net value had been rising, Gu Junhao's personal disposable cash had never exceeded 10 million yuan.
Several times, the loans were spent before they even warmed up in my hands.
What is different from his previous life is that Gu Junhao's wealth in his previous life was accumulated step by step. He enjoyed all the things he should have enjoyed in the process, and his concept of money was gradual.
And now he suddenly has more than 800 million yuan in cash flow. To be honest, Gu Junhao doesn’t know how to spend it.
As for the company, it is easier to deal with. Junshi Capital will set up its own proprietary trading platform and primary market investments in the future.
It remains to be seen whether this cash flow of more than 400 million yuan will be sufficient by then.
As for his personal situation, Gu Junhao hasn't figured out how to spend the 380 million yuan in cash for the time being. At present, he is just helping Zhang Yiru to boost his performance.
Such a large amount of money lying in a bank account sounds particularly luxurious.
It has to be said that after learning that Gu Junhao had liquidated his stocks, the local banks were very enthusiastic about Gu Junhao, who had a large amount of cash flow, and he would receive dinner invitations from time to time.
Junshi No. 1 is making so much money, and Gu Junhao, who has always been generous in terms of remuneration, naturally will not treat his employees unfairly. All employees of the company receive considerable bonus income.
Apart from the senior executives, Xu Jianqing and his two assistants, Li Xinyu, received the most generous bonuses. The bonus Xu Jianqing received was enough to buy a nice property in Beicang in full, which made him very happy.
Li Xinyu, who has grown rapidly since joining the company, received a bonus that is almost as much as she earned from her small investments in the stock market. Li Xinyu, who originally earned 200,000 yuan at Tonghuashun, was quite excited and was thinking about making more money from her boss.
However, after receiving the bonus, Li Xinyu was no longer so concerned about the stocks. It seemed that he just wanted to work hard.
As for Wu Peng and Cao Wenxun, since they have not been working for the company for long, their bonuses are naturally much less than that of Xu Jianqing and the other two.
However, the stocks managed by the two men all rose sharply. During this process, the performance commissions were already considerable, so there was naturally nothing to complain about the distribution of bonuses.
In fact, Gu Junhao originally wanted to hold an annual meeting, but thinking about the impending stock market crash, it seemed inappropriate to hold the annual meeting at this time. And if the stock market crash was hyped up, it would be like rubbing salt into the wound.
Moreover, Gu Junhao tried to keep a low profile when distributing bonuses, but some employees couldn't help showing off. Fortunately, the financial industry has a high income, so although it has attracted heated discussions, it is still within a reasonable range.
The first fund made so much money for the company, so it is only right to give some bonuses to the employees. I believe that after a period of discussion, no one will pay attention to it when the stock market crashes.
June 1, Monday; after the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets hit bottom last Friday, the two markets once again saw a surge on the first trading day of June. Both large and small cap stocks soared, with a total of more than 280 stocks in the two markets hitting the daily limit.
The Shanghai Composite Index surged 4.71% throughout the day, easily standing above 4,800 points, while the ChiNext Index soared 4.97%, and both markets ushered in a retaliatory rebound.
On June 2, the Shanghai Composite Index rose again by more than 2%, and the index stabilized at 4,900 points. The ChiNext Index rose again by 4.92%, easily breaking through 3,900 points in two trading days.
On June 3, the Shanghai Composite Index paused at its previous high today, closing down 0.01% for the day, while the ChiNext Index ended today's trading with a 2.05% increase.
The ChiNext Index even surged above 4,000 points during the session, which was an amazing performance.
After hitting the daily limit yesterday, Dongfang Fortune closed at the daily limit again today, with the share price at 95.48 yuan.
Since the ChiNext Index had already touched 4,000 points and the share price of Dongfang Fortune had once again returned to above 90 yuan, Gu Junhao, who had originally wanted to hold on to Dongfang Fortune for a few more days, simply liquidated his holdings.
The market value of 280 million yuan seems insignificant compared to the daily trading volume of 8.61 billion yuan of Dongfang Wealth, and Junshi No. 2 has also entered a short period of short position. The current total account size is 2.78144 billion yuan, and the net value rate is 5.5629.
On June 4, the website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that Guotai Junan's IPO, the largest in the past five years, with a total financing amount of 30 billion yuan, was approved. As another iconic stock in the countdown for A-shares, it triggered violent fluctuations in the Shanghai Composite Index.
Looking at the history of A-shares, every elephant-scale fundraising will have a huge impact on the market. Guotai Junan’s IPO approval and subsequent listing have a huge impact on the market.
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced drastic fluctuations under the influence of this news. As the news fermented before the end of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged rapidly. The index's intraday decline once exceeded 5%, falling directly from above 4,900 points to below 4,700 points.
This was the third intraday plunge in the past six trading days, although the index eventually reversed and ended up rising 0.76%.
However, such frequent plunges when the index approaches 5,000 points also mean that funds in the market are fleeing at an accelerated pace.
The ChiNext Index also closed down 0.97% after failing to break through the 4,000 point mark again today, and is showing a trend of peaking before the broader market.
Gu Junhao does not remember the exact date when the ChiNext reached its peak, but he remembers very clearly that 4,000 points was the high point of the ChiNext.
On Friday, June 5, the last trading day of the week, the ChiNext Index failed to reach 4,000 points for the third time in a week, and its decline widened to 1.46% today.
After Dongfang Wealth's V-shaped reversal yesterday with its share price rising 6.64%, it set a new all-time high today with its share price at 102.84 yuan. Subsequently, the share price maintained a low opening and low closing trend throughout the day, with a sharp drop of 9.25% during the day.
Tonghuashun also set a new high after the ex-rights price today, with the highest price at 142.50 yuan. It then began to dive and finally closed down 6.16%. Tonghuashun's amplitude today exceeded 15%. It can also be seen from the after-market Dragon and Tiger List that funds are accelerating outflows under the game between hot money and institutions.
Another GEM component stock, Yinzhijie, which has been with Gu Junhao for nearly a year, hit seven consecutive daily limit increases within eight trading days after resuming trading on May 22, and then fell sharply for two consecutive days in the three trading days to today.
Judging from the performance of these three highly representative GEM constituent stocks, the GEM index, which has closed down for two consecutive days, has already shown a very obvious signal of reaching its peak. The share price of Dongfang Fortune at 102.84 yuan is very likely to be the highest price in this round.
What is more interesting is that although Dongfang Wealth did not publish the Dragon and Tiger list today, judging from the Dragon and Tiger list of the previous two days, the Shanghai Gang is rampant in the Dragon and Tiger list, and all the buying and selling seats are members of the Shanghai Gang.
Gu Junhao happened to cut them again.
There are also many Shanghai Gang members on Tong Huashun's Dragon and Tiger List. As the bull market is coming to an end, these hot money investors are still tirelessly looking for opportunities, and it is unknown whether they can escape.
However, these people are not short of money. They should have made a lot of money in this bull market, so it’s no big deal for them to cut some losses and stay in the market.
After the market closed on June 5, Junshi No. 2 announced its net value again. Compared with the total scale of 2.717 billion yuan at the end of last month, the total scale of 2.781 yuan this week did not change much, and the net value only increased slightly from 5.4357 to 5.5629.
At this point, some people can see that Junshi No. 2's position is already very low. You should know that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 8.92% this week, and the index has even stabilized at 5,000 points.
The ChiNext Index surged by 9.68%, while Junshi No. 2 only rose by 2.33% this week, far underperforming the index. This increase is completely different from its usual performance.
"Has this guy already cleared out his inventory?" Wang Chao frowned as he looked at the performance of Junshi No. 2, which took over the top spot since Junshi No. 1 was liquidated.
Through the net value curve, Wang Chao can see at a glance that there was no change in the net value of Junshi No. 2 on June 4 and June 5.
You should know that the market has fluctuated greatly in the past two days.
Even when the market stabilized at 5,000 points on June 5, it still experienced huge fluctuations, with continuous dives during the trading session.
Even if Junshi No. 2 only has a 10% position, it is impossible that there would be no fluctuations in the past two days.
"It is very likely that Mr. Gu is still very sensitive to the market. This can be seen from the fact that he liquidated his personal accounts and liquidated Junshi No. 1." Shi Xin nodded.
"This shows that the overall market is not optimistic. Now it can be basically confirmed that Junshi No. 2 has been cleared out. This is quite interesting." Wang Chao said playfully.
“Well, Junshi No. 1 is not paying the management fees for two months and is liquidating it in advance. Although Mr. Gu said it is the company’s capital demand, this is just to deceive outsiders.” Shi Xin also said with a smile.
Then Shi Xin said to Wang Chao: "Should we clear it?"
"Do you really trust Mr. Gu? The current upward trend is not bad. Even if it has reached its peak, there will be a second peak. There is no need to liquidate, right?"
Wang Chao looked at his brother-in-law with some surprise and said.
Unlike his brother-in-law, Wang Chao had experienced the 6124 bull market in 2007, so he was not too surprised by the current level of 5000 points.
In Wang Chao's opinion, after the 528 plunge, the Shanghai Composite Index recovered through six trading days until it broke through 5,000 points. At present, the Shanghai Composite Index has not deviated from the daily five-day line position, and its weekly performance is also relatively good.
Although there are signs of accelerated capital outflow and volatility is increasing, even if it reaches a short-term peak, it is still possible to escape smoothly.
You can reduce your positions when the index is high, but there is no need to clear all positions. In addition, maintaining a certain position for T will also improve the performance of the fund.
"Believe it or not, just look at the trends of the ChiNext Index and Tong Huashun and Dongfang Wealth and you will know. Didn't you, brother-in-law, also liquidate your Dongfang Wealth after Mr. Gu sold Tong Huashun?"
"These few do show signs of peaking, but the market feels like it will surge again. It's okay to reduce positions, but there's no need to clear them out. Besides, our positions aren't that high."
"Okay then, I'll listen to you, brother-in-law. We still have time to run away when we reach the peak." Shi Xin thought about it and felt that his brother-in-law was right. Everyone would run away.
…
In the trading room of Junshi Capital, Gu Junhao made an unexpected decision .
"Okay, that's all for today. Also, the fund is empty, so there's nothing else to do. We'll be on holiday this month, and everyone will come back to work on the 1st of next month."
"Ah? Holiday?" everyone exclaimed in surprise.
You know, we have only been working for a week this month, and Mr. Gu actually announced a holiday, which means he has no intention of rebuilding a position.
"Well, you can take a holiday and still get your salary, but your performance this month will be affected." Gu Junhao said with a smile.
"Mr. Gu is not optimistic about the overall market and does not plan to rebuild his position this month?" Cao Wenxun said sharply.
He still had a small position in his hands. After Tong Huashun sold it, Cao Wenxun bought another stock based on his own experience.
"Well, I feel that the market is about to reach its peak, and the ChiNext has already shown signs of reaching its peak in advance." Gu Junhao said bluntly.
"So Mr. Gu is looking at a major adjustment?" Wu Peng continued.
"It depends on the adjustment, but I don't know how much it will be adjusted. Just adapt to the situation. If you really want to build a position, I can handle it. You guys should take a vacation and have a good rest for a while."
"Okay then, since Mr. Gu said so, let's enjoy it too. Thank you, Mr. Gu." Cao Wenxun said with a smile.
Everyone knows how sensitive Mr. Gu is to the market. Following such a leader, Lao Cao really doesn't have to worry about running away.
The next market changes will be huge, beyond everyone's imagination, and Gu Junhao is unwilling to say more at this time.
The reason why Gu Junhao gave traders holidays was actually because he considered it more from the perspective of the company's employees.
It has been a crazy year. With the boss making so much money, most of the employees at Junshi Capital, which is mostly composed of young people, have bought some stocks.
Although Gu Junhao didn't know exactly how many people were investing in stocks, he thought that there were probably quite a few. After all, the stock market had been really hot in recent months.
Gu Junhao naturally could not say out loud that the market would plummet, but by giving traders a holiday as a way of reminding everyone, I think it would remind most people.
The traders are on holiday, so the stock market is certainly not going to be much better. Anyone with a reasonable mind can see that.
Gu Junhao does not want the upcoming stock market crash to affect the stability of the company.
Xu Jianqing is popular, so when the time comes, I can ask him to remind everyone privately, which should help the employees suffer less losses.
Especially since a large bonus was given to the employees this time, Gu Junhao didn't want them to lose all of it in the stock market.
Otherwise, you will end up being the one reaping the benefits and then giving bonuses to employees, who will then be reaped in the stock market. That would be a bit funny.
"Everyone, please go away. Xiao Xu, please stay for a moment. I have something to tell you." Gu Junhao said to everyone, and the job of private talk was left to Xu Jianqing.
"Ah? Okay."
