Chapter 287: The Continuous Differentiation of the 82 Trend
Since the announcement of the interest rate cut on November 22, 2014 , the daily turnover of the Shanghai Composite Index has reached more than 460 billion yuan. The A-share market has always had a phenomenon that when the trading volume is large, the blue chips with high weights perform well, while when the trading volume is small, the small and medium-sized board growth stocks dominate.
This phenomenon was particularly evident in transactions after the New Year. On the 13th, the Shanghai Composite Index shrank to a new low since the market rose after the interest rate cut, with a total transaction volume of only 273.6 billion yuan.
This situation is extremely rare in recent times. Obviously, large market funds have certain concerns about the short-term trend of blue-chip stocks with certain weights. The constraints on funds make it difficult for heavyweight stocks to achieve anything. This is naturally a good thing for small and medium-sized start-up stocks in the rebound. The ChiNext Index once again stabilized at 1,600 points today, closing at 1,601.17 points.
However, for incremental large funds, small and medium-sized stocks are difficult to attract large funds due to their size. When the first-line weighted stocks perform generally, large funds are more willing to enter the first- and second-line blue chips to look for opportunities besides waiting.
The rebound of small and medium-sized growth stocks relies more on the promotion of some small institutions, hot money and ordinary retail investors. This highly flexible group also causes the stock price to fluctuate greatly.
However, over the past few trading days in the new year, this part of the funds has been surprisingly consistent in its direction towards small and medium-sized enterprises. The leading stocks of small and medium-sized enterprises have maintained a steady upward trend since their rebound.
Yinzhijie has seen six consecutive positive trends since the rebound, Dongfang Fortune's share price has also been rising steadily, and Tonghuashun has seen a rare eight-consecutive positive trend, with its share price approaching the 60 yuan integer mark, closing at 59.65 yuan.
Gu Junhao spent more than 70 million yuan to buy back Tong Huashun chips, plus his original holdings of 500 shares, the market value of which now exceeds 95 million yuan. In just eight trading days after the purchase, the profit has exceeded 20 million yuan.
Once the amount of capital increases and one seizes the opportunity, the speed of making money will be unimaginable. Based on today's closing price of Tonghuashun's stock price, Gu Junhao's market value will once again exceed 100 million yuan if it only rises by less than five percentage points.
To determine whether the stock price has bottomed out and rebounded, the daily limit is a very important reference data, especially for small and medium-sized start-up stocks; after a stock has experienced a major bottoming out, the stock price begins to show a continuous small cross positive line trend, which represents the intervention of funds.
The big positive line after the small positive line is an important reference. The bigger the positive line is, the greater its reference value. For example, Tong Huashun, Yin Zhijie and Dong Fang Caifu, which hit the daily limit the day after the cross star bottomed out, can be regarded as the best rebound standard.
However, it is relatively difficult for ordinary investors to catch the daily limit. Except for people like Li Ze who pay close attention to the trend of a certain stock for a long time, most investors will only discover it after the daily limit.
However, most investors dare not buy after the stock price reaches the daily limit. In fact, relatively speaking, this low daily limit is a good opportunity to intervene. Those who can lock the stock price at the daily limit have certain strength, which is difficult for ordinary retail investors to do.
In addition to attracting market sentiment, the daily limit rise also meets the need to quickly collect chips, and the performance in the three trading days after the daily limit is particularly important. If the stock price enters a small rise without breaking the daily limit, it is completely possible to intervene.
Since the Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board market entered a period of shrinking volume, its trend has been fluctuating, and the volatile pattern is particularly obvious. Although the ChiNext index is still rebounding, we naturally cannot completely ignore the main board's market.
After entering the cursed day of Thursday, affected by the news, the Shanghai Composite Index, which had shrunk to less than 300 billion yuan in turnover for two consecutive trading days, rose against the market trend, attempting to launch another counterattack upwards.
Heavyweight sectors such as banking, insurance, and real estate are desperately trying to maintain the upward trend of the index, but the performance of the leading sector brokerage firms is still very weak since this round of rebound, and most brokerage stocks are barely maintaining a positive trend.
The same is true for the performance of the two brokerage stocks held by Gu Junhao. After the share price of Western Securities hit a high of 40.80 yuan on December 31, 2014, it has been continuously adjusted downward since the beginning of the new year. As of today, the share price has reached around 34.50 yuan, a decrease of nearly 10% since the beginning of the new year.
Affected by the shrinking amount of funds, the adjustment of Huanghe Securities is even worse than that of Xibu Securities. Huanghe Securities, whose five-day line crossed below the 20-day line, has fallen nearly 15% since the New Year, and its stock price has now reached around 15 yuan.
If it weren't for the sharp rise in Dongfang Wealth and the relatively stable performance of the two stocks with Chinese characters in their names, the recent pullback of Junshi No. 2 would have been even greater. As for the ChiNext Index, which had been rising continuously since the New Year, it also stopped in today's main board market after the leading stocks chose to adjust.
In the afternoon, stimulated by the sharp rise in international oil prices, PetroChina's stock price rose sharply, and Sinopec followed closely, continuing to drive the main board market. The securities board also rebounded slightly at this time, while the ChiNext continued to remain sluggish.
"Reduce the holdings of the two brokerage stocks by one third each. The volume has shrunk and the two oil companies have surged again, sucking blood. We can't pull them up." Then, Gu Junhao said, "Reduce the holdings of the other two Chinese characters stocks by one third as well."
Although the correction of these two stocks is not very large, they have not broken through the highs created last year since the beginning of this year. The current share price of Zhongguo First Heavy Industries remains around 5.80 yuan, which is 12% away from last year's high of 6.51 yuan. The share price of Zhongguo Communications Construction remains around 13 yuan, which is also about 20% away from last year's high.
As the main board continues to shrink in volume, it is inevitable that the China-headed sector, which also saw a sharp rise last year, will follow the adjustments of securities firms in the future. Since positions need to be reduced, it would be safest to simply reduce the entire position by one third.
Today is the second time that Gu Junhao has entered the trading room since the first trading day of this year. This was strongly requested by Xu Jianqing. The continuous pullback of brokerage stocks has greatly affected the performance of Junshi No. 2.
In the hearts of Xu Jianqing and others, they actually wanted to reduce their positions very much, but without Gu Junhao's order, they did not dare to act on their own, so they entrusted Xu Jianqing to take Gu Junhao to ask for orders.
After several days of Xu Jianqing's coaxing and persuading, Gu Junhao had no choice but to return to the trading room again. He was aware of the trend of the securities companies in recent period of time. The trend had been adjusting downward, and the signs of adjustment were very obvious.
In addition, the meeting period is approaching, and the performance of A-shares during the meetings has never been very good. It is understandable for the weighted reduction of positions. However, this time, Gu Junhao did not choose to reduce his positions significantly. It was enough to try to reduce his positions once with a full position last time. In the case of excessive funds, apart from the idea of clearing the positions, a pullback is inevitable.
This afternoon, the rise of the two oil companies is a good opportunity, and reducing positions by one third should be reasonable. At the same time, the chips can be digested on the market without causing too much fluctuation.
Throughout the day, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded by more than 3% in the afternoon, led by PetroChina's surge of 8.66% and Sinopec's surge of 4.86%, and rose by 3.54% for the whole day. However, the overall trading volume was still only 330.6 billion yuan, and has not yet recovered to the daily average of 460 billion yuan.
"The trading volume has shrunk too much. It is not a good thing to rise at a high level with a shrinking volume." Today's sharp rise in the Shanghai Composite Index has made Gu Junhao a little worried about the market of the weighted stocks. It is possible that this is a temporary high.
The statements made at yesterday's highest executive meeting and this year's No. 1 document will be released at the end of the month, and the entry of pension funds into the market has been mentioned again, which were interpreted by the market as positive. However, judging from the trading volume, funds do not seem to be buying into the rebound from high levels, which can be seen from the trading volume.
Today's rebound with reduced volume is more like a process of some large funds fleeing. During the afternoon rally of the two oil barrels, the outflows to varying degrees from the weighty sectors also seemed to indicate certain problems.
"Will they really take the opportunity to set up a trap and allow pension funds to enter the market?" Wu Peng also analyzed Gu Junhao's topic. As a senior trader, he naturally did not believe that the entry of pension funds into the market would be good for the market.
Pension funds are there to make money, so it is obviously impossible for them to carry the money at a high level. They may even create some negative news and dig a hole during the adjustment period to make it easier for pension funds to enter the market and reap the benefits.
"This possibility is not a matter of whether it will happen or not, but a high probability. Let's reduce part of the position tomorrow based on the situation. Two-thirds of the position is still a bit too high. Half the position is about right." Gu Junhao nodded.
At present, the net value of Junshi No. 2 Fund still remains above 1 billion yuan. Junshi No. 2, which focuses on the weighted sectors, cannot have a surge like Junshi No. 1. Gu Junshi knows this very well.
Brokerage firms and stocks with Chinese characters in their names experienced a sharp rise last year. This year’s gains will certainly be very limited. With only a few months left before the stock market crash, it is obviously impossible for brokerage firms to achieve the same growth as last year.
For Gu Junhao, the most important thing is how to increase the net value to the highest possible level before the stock market crash and ensure that Junshi No. 2 can maintain a stable net value return of more than 2 during the stock market crash.
The open period of Junshi No. 1 is until June this year, and by then we can find a reason to liquidate it. However, the operation period of Junshi No. 2 is only more than half a year until June this year, and it can be opened for redemption at that time, but liquidation is definitely not possible.
At present, Gu Junhao is very popular. As a fellow villager with the same experience as Xu Xiang, Gu Junhao is also called the second Xu Xiang by some people. It is hard not to attract attention that both funds were liquidated accurately before the stock market crash.
As a popular fund manager who is now very popular, Gu Junhao just wants to make money and does not want to work like Xu, so Junshi No. 2 is specified not to be liquidated in less than a year.
On Friday, January 16, 2015, the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, which had been fluctuating continuously, entered the second half of trading in January. As a continuation of yesterday's surge, after the call auction ended today, the Shanghai Composite Index jumped up and opened at 3343.60 points, while the ChiNext Index opened slightly lower.
The two oil giants, banks and other sectors opened higher, while the securities sector continued to perform poorly. Concept stocks with Chinese characters in their names were affected by CNR and CSR, which hit their daily limit again yesterday after three trading days of adjustment after their delisting. They all jumped higher at the open today.
Zhongguo CSR opened higher at 11.50 yuan in the morning, up 2.31%. Calculated from the share price of 5.80 yuan when it was suspended last year, CSR's share price rose as much as 93.79% within ten trading days after its resumption of trading. With today's high opening, there is no doubt that CSR will double.
The trend of CNR is almost the same as that of CSR, and its share price is also about to double. The two major companies have not yet officially merged, but their share prices have doubled. The habitual hype expectations of the A-share market are fully demonstrated.
After the official trading started, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated upward. Zhongguo CSR rose rapidly after a small fluctuation, while some other stocks with Chinese characters in their names maintained a trend of opening high and closing low, among which Zhongguo First Heavy Industries was the most obvious.
At 9:45, the share price of Zhongguo CSR was reported at 11.60 yuan, up more than 3% on the day. The share price has officially doubled since its resumption of trading. Zhongguo First Heavy Industries fell nearly 2%, and Zhongguo Communications Construction also maintained a downward trend.
"No need to wait until 10 o'clock, start reducing weight. This is the result of the CNR and CSR." Gu Junhao said to Xu Jianqing and Wu Peng.
The trading volume in the two markets today is still insufficient. In the morning session, new stocks, high dividend and bonus sectors all rose sharply. The ChiNext Index rose rapidly after opening low. Obviously, in the case of insufficient trading volume, active off-market funds prefer small and medium-sized stocks.
The three high-dividend and high-bonus stocks owned by Gu Junhao also performed very well. Yinzhijie rose by more than 4% at this time, Dongfang Fortune and Tonghuashun both rose by more than 1%. At 10 o'clock, Tonghuashun's trading volume began to slowly increase, and Dongfang Fortune also attracted a large amount of buying funds at the same time.
"Today's market is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises." Cao Wenxun couldn't help but sigh. The securities sector was in a small fluctuation range today . Cao Wenxun didn't have much chance to make a move. Looking at the rising small and medium-sized enterprises sector, he couldn't help but feel a little envious.
The brokerage firms that Cao had bought privately had already been cleared out last week, and the selling prices were relatively high. Since joining Junshi Capital in November last year, Cao Wenxun has made an overall profit of 1.5 times thanks to Tong Huashun and buying in accordance with Junshi's No. 2 holding rule.
In addition, the salary of these two months and the income from performance commission were far beyond his expectations. In November, Gu Junhao paid Cao Wenxun a full month's salary, and also gave him a personal bonus before the New Year.
The extremely high short-term stock returns and the increase in salary have greatly alleviated Cao Wenxun's personal financial pressure and reduced a lot of stress. With the pressure reduced, his overall mental state has improved a lot and he feels a lot more relaxed.
This time, due to the continuous rebound of Tong Huashun, Cao Wenxun was very cunning and asked his wife to buy Tong Huashun again on Monday morning. The average transaction price was 53 yuan. However, this time his wife did not listen to him and used the financing channel to make a large purchase.
Afterwards, Cao Wenxun's wife also explained her reasons. Now the pressure is not so great. With the income of the two of them, it is enough to live a rich life by working honestly. There is no need to take risks.
Cao Wenxun originally wanted to use the financing channel to buy 10,000 shares of Tong Huashun, but since his wife said so, it made sense. A stable life is always better than taking risks. Today, seeing Tong Huashun rise again, the stock price trend is likely to break through 60 yuan, and Cao Wenxun is also very happy.
Although he failed to raise funds to buy 10,000 shares of Tong Huashun, he still had 5,000 shares in his account, and now he has made a profit of more than 30,000 yuan.
"It seems that there is still a future in following Mr. Gu." Cao Wenxun thought secretly as he glanced at Gu Junhao who was staring at the big screen.
