Chapter 218 Performance after the big drop
The unexpected suspension of Dongfang Wealth also disrupted Gu Junhao's trading plan. He originally wanted to confirm whether the ChiNext Index was in place by observing the trend of Dongfang Wealth.
However, since this has already happened, there is no better way than to deal with it.
"I hope it won't stop for too long, otherwise the net value of the fund this week will be too ugly." Gu Junhao said to himself.
It is a very painful thing to have funds locked up in stocks for a long time and unable to trade. I had this experience with the stocks I held in my previous life when thousands of stocks hit the limit down.
As for operations like betting on ST backdoor listings and actively seeking suspensions, they are different from the passive suspension of Dongfang Wealth.
By the way, this year's restructuring theme is also a hot topic in the A-share market. From the beginning of the year to now, many stocks have doubled in this round of market.
In the first few years after the registration system was officially liberalized, backdoor listing has always been a hot topic. Companies like Yinzhijie, although not a backdoor listing, have also taken advantage of the popularity.
The suspension of Dongfang Wealth also made Gu Junhao have certain expectations for the suspension of Yinzhijie. He just hoped that these two stocks would not be suspended for too long at the same time.
Originally, my colleagues and some people who paid close attention to me had almost confirmed that I had a large stake in Dongfang Wealth.
When the share prices of Xibu Securities and Wan'an Technology have remained largely unchanged, if the two heavily-weighted stocks are suspended at the same time, the net value of the fund will remain unchanged after a sharp drop.
That almost confirms Junshi No. 1’s holdings.
There are many people whose thoughts were guessed by Gu Junhao. During his trip to the Shanghai Stock Exchange last week, at dinner and exchange meetings, many colleagues wanted to inquire about Junshi No. 1's holdings.
However, whether it was an open question or an indirect one, Gu Junhao changed the subject; as for the positions, it would be better not to disclose them if possible.
…
"Dongfang Wealth has been suspended. If it is suspended long enough, we will be able to roughly determine the specific holdings of Junshi No. 1." Wang Chao said while looking at the announcement of Dongfang Wealth.
Although he admired Gu Junhao very much in private, public and private are private; in terms of fund performance, Wang Chao still wanted to compete with Junshi No. 1.
Among the delisting lists announced last week, Henghua No. 1 ranked second with a net asset value ratio of 1.5224, which is still a long way from Junshi No. 1, but Wang Chao did not give up.
Perhaps, the suspension of Dongfang Wealth is a good opportunity.
Regardless of whether Gu Junhao admits it or not, Wang Chao has determined that Junshi No. 1 must hold a heavy position in Dongfang Wealth, and through the suspension of Dongfang Wealth, its specific position can be roughly judged through the changes in net value.
The profit during the suspension period is 0. If you have a heavy or even full position, then the profit of Junshi No. 1 in the last few days of this week will definitely change very little.
However, all this is based on the premise that Dongfang Wealth is suspended for a long enough period of time.
“In theory, it won’t last too long. A will only last a week at most,” Shi Xin replied.
"Indeed, this actually doesn't have much effect. Essentially, we still need to increase our rate of return." Wang Hao sighed.
What could he do even if he knew? Before meeting Gu Junhao in person, Wang Chao had already given up the idea of blocking Junshi No. 1 through abnormal means.
After meeting Gu Junhao in person, Wang Chao wanted to defeat Junshi No. 1 head-on and regain the top spot.
"It's not completely useless. Knowing the approximate position of Junshi No. 1 will help us adjust our own position."
Shi Xin said that in fact, Dongfang Wealth fell sharply yesterday, and Shi Xin wanted to persuade Wang Chao to increase his position in Dongfang Wealth. In his opinion, it is more important to make real profits than to compete for the first place.
Even if it is just following the trend, so what; as long as you can make money and bring real benefits to customers and the company, that's enough.
However, Wang Chao did not adopt Shi Xin's suggestion. Henghua No. 1 currently also holds a part of Dongfang Wealth, but the specific position is not heavy. In this round of adjustments, Wang Chao reduced his holdings a lot.
Obviously, in Wang Chao's view, the number one ranking in private equity is more attractive, and it is a great opportunity for him to become famous.
I was already very close to this position. As long as I didn't make any mistakes and followed my current steady and cautious approach, I could just maintain my gains.
But who would have known that if Gu Junhao suddenly appeared and followed the trend to buy Dongfang Wealth, he might be able to get a good rate of return, but he would definitely not be able to outperform Junshi No. 1.
However, the suspension of Dongfang Wealth gave Wang Chao new hope.
…
On Wednesday, Gu Junhao came to the trading room and said to Wang Ruoyu, who was looking at him inquiringly, "It's okay. A normal suspension is also a good thing."
Generally speaking, after such a suspension after a sharp drop, as long as the market does not experience a continuous sharp drop during the suspension period, there will be a process of compensatory growth after the resumption of trading, regardless of whether it is good or bad news.
On the contrary, if the market experiences a continuous sharp decline, even if it is absolutely positive, it will affect profits and even cause a compensatory decline.
Monster stocks are an exception! But Dongfang Wealth is obviously not among the monster stocks.
Dongfang Wealth's performance after resuming trading will depend on the performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets after yesterday's sharp drop. The longer the suspension, the greater the uncertainty.
Wang Ruoyu also seemed to be infected by the boss's confidence and calmed down; however, he really had nothing to do today, and as long as he wanted, he didn't have to look at the market.
"You don't have to envy me today, haha." Wang Ruoyu said to Xu Jianqing and Liu Tingting after relaxing.
This caused the two of them to roll their eyes. Gu Junhao couldn't help but laugh secretly when he saw Wang Ruoyu's smugness. It was very likely that Yin Zhijie would also be suspended from trading.
We will see how you respond to the crazy talk of big speculators at that time.
At 9:25, the call auction ended, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening at 2298.98 points and the ChiNext Index opening at 1473.52 points.
"The sentiment at the opening is pretty good." Gu Junhao said to the three people. Dongfang Wealth was suspended today, so everyone was relatively relaxed.
Among the three tradable holdings, except for Wan'an Technology which opened low, Xibu Securities and Yinzhijie, which represent big finance and high-level correction stocks, both opened high.
Tonghuashun also opened high at 23.36 yuan, and Yinzhijie opened at 23.10 yuan, up 0.87%.
Both individual stocks and indexes performed well at the start, and the sentiment did not seem to be affected by yesterday's big drop.
This is how stocks perform in an upward trend. Regardless of whether the market falls sharply or not, there is no shortage of funds trying to buy the bottom and make a rebound.
On the contrary, during a decline, even if the stock has reached normal valuation, or even below normal valuation, there will not be too much buying.
A-shares are like this. When they rise, they can rise like crazy, and when they fall, no matter what your valuation is, a normal valuation can cut your price in half.
Dongfang Wealth has been suspended from trading, so Gu Junhao can only devote more energy to the index and Yin Zhijie today. As for his personal holdings in Tong Huashun, Gu Junhao believes that it is far from the time to buy at the bottom.
When the official trading started, the ChiNext Index fluctuated downward, but Yinzhijie's performance was much faster than the ChiNext Index. At 9:31, the stock price fell from 23.10 yuan to 22.88 yuan.
The stock price turned green instantly, however, on the intraday trading chart, Yin Zhijie only completed 213 transactions.
"It's a normal performance. The funds that bought the bottom yesterday are looking to take profits and flee today when the market opens higher. Some panic investors who are afraid of falling prices are also eager to flee."
As long as the volume doesn’t increase, there’s nothing to worry about; there’s no need to worry if the big funds don’t run away.
Whenever a stock opens high the day after a big drop, most stocks will experience violent fluctuations in the morning, and it is unclear whether they can withstand the fluctuations.
This depends on the trading volume, which determines the trend of stock prices.
At 9:35, the decline in Yinzhijie's share price widened to more than 1%, and the share price broke the 10-day line. At the same time, the growth rate of Chuangye's share price also closed at around 0.2%.
The trends of individual stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are similar to those of Yin Zhijie, and the two markets are experiencing drastic shocks and adjustments.
At 9:37, the ChiNext Index turned green, Yinzhijie reported 22.45 yuan, and the decline widened to 2%. Judging from the intraday chart, Yinzhijie's morning trend was similar to that of yesterday morning.
It seems that Yinzhijie will experience another big drop today, but judging from the morning trading volume, the volume of Yinzhijie has shrunk significantly during this period.
In the trading market, sell orders rarely exceed 100 lots; on the contrary, buy orders of more than 100 lots are quite a few.
At 9:40, the ChiNext Index accelerated its decline, with the drop widening to more than 0.5%. Five minutes later, the ChiNext Index was at 1457.67 points, down 1.05%.
"The volatility is very violent." Looking at the intraday chart of the ChiNext Index, Gu Junhao couldn't help but sigh.
During the 15-minute trading session, the ChiNext Index pulled back by more than 1.5%. Under this violent fluctuation of 1.5%, how many stocks experienced a brutal pullback.
Just like Yinzhijie, at this moment the stock price of Yinzhijie has fallen to 22.05 yuan, a drop of 3.77%.
During the three trading days this week, Yinzhijie's share price fell from the opening price of 25.70 yuan to the current price of 22.05 yuan, a drop of 16.55%.
Investors who bought at this week's opening price suffered heavy losses in three trading days; the intraday chart is like a sharp weapon, stabbing into the hearts of those who chased high prices.
Yin Zhijie, which resonates with the index, has seen a significant increase in trading volume compared to the opening during this phase of rapid decline.
Within 5 minutes, Yinzhijie's transaction volume reached 10 million yuan, and the selling orders were still mainly from retail investors with less than 100 lots.
22.05 yuan is already close to the psychological price of those chasing high prices. If it drops further, they will enter a stage of deep lock-up. The mentality close to collapse makes the leeks can't wait to cut their losses and get out.
"It's almost done. The panic should be over temporarily." Gu Junhao said as he saw retail investors were accelerating their outflow.
The ChiNext Index rebounded quickly, and the lowest price of Yinzhijie this round was fixed at 22 yuan. Retail investors who sold at 22.05 yuan may feel psychologically comforted when they see the price of 22 yuan.
However, this comforting mentality did not last long. Yinzhijie also rebounded rapidly along with the index, and at 9:50, it was reported at 22.30 yuan.
Seeing the rapid rebound of the index and stock price, the leeks who had just cut their losses seemed extremely panicked at the moment, and rationally felt that they must have made the wrong decision.
Reason tells me that I should buy it back, but reason cannot overcome panic, and in the end I can only watch the stock price go up step by step.
This is probably how investors who sold at the lowest point feel.
“Is this going to rebound?”
Seeing that the ChiNext Index quickly rebounded to near the flat point and the decline had narrowed to 0.3%, Xu Jianqing looked at Gu Junhao with some excitement.
“How can it be so fast? We have just killed the first wave of panic trading. There will have to be a few more shocks.” Gu Junhao said with a smile.
Those who can make huge profits in the stock market, or even control a stock with large funds, are all cold-blooded in their transactions.
This includes Gu Junhao himself. He was ruthless in dumping the stocks and did not care whether the market could handle it or not.
With the ChiNext Index fluctuating widely, how could the main funds miss such a good opportunity to clean up and smash the market?
After rebounding to around 22.35 yuan, Yinzhijie began its intraday low-level oscillation mode, with the stock price fluctuating narrowly between 22.35 yuan and 22.26 yuan.
The ChiNext Index's oscillation range during the same period seemed much larger. It took only 15 minutes for the index to rise from a 0.6% drop to a positive rise.
At 10:30, as the ChiNext Index turned positive for the third time during the day, Yinzhijie experienced a small-scale rise, with its share price rising from 22.26 yuan to 22.59 yuan, and the decline narrowed to 1.35%.
"It looks like I can't wash any more today. I'm almost done." Gu Junhao continued to analyze the market in real time.
Above the trading table, sell orders of 100 shares began to appear continuously. This was also a signal that Yin Zhijie had bottomed out. Such a phenomenon had appeared in the bottom area of Yin Zhijie before.
At eleven o'clock, after the ChiNext Index rose to a maximum of 1478.68 points, it briefly peaked within half an hour and then resumed its volatile downward mode.
During this half hour, Yinzhijie's stock price performed much stronger than in the morning session. The stock price fluctuated in the range of 22.50 yuan, and the decline was not as fast as in the morning session.
Yin Zhijie seemed to have returned to the previous period when the index was going against the trend, and its trend was contrary to the index.
At the midday close, Yinzhijie closed at 22.62 yuan, down 1.22%. The ChiNext Index retreated from its highs and closed at 1464.20 points, down 0.61%.
The integer price of 22 yuan was the lowest price of Yinzhijie in the morning. No matter how it fluctuated, the stock price of Yinzhijie never returned to this position.
This also made ordinary investors who sold at the morning low of around 22.05 yuan regret it, and they can only hope that the high dive of the ChiNext Index can bring about another collapse .
"It looks like Yin Zhijie has almost finished washing out." After the market closed, Gu Junhao said to Xu Jianqing. In this round of washing out, Gu Junhao hardly participated in the transactions.
The position of 11,000 lots has suffered a substantial pullback, but judging from the fact that Yinzhijie broke through the 10-day line this morning and then pulled up.
Yin Zhijie should have almost finished washing his hands. If he can recover the price of the ten-day line today, it will be a success for Gu Junhao.
Except for the stage of rapid decline in the morning, when Yinzhijie's trading volume increased slightly, the trading volume of Yinzhijie during the rest of the shock adjustment period was very scarce.
During the rise, Yinzhijie slowly released its trading volume. As long as the trading volume in the morning is maintained in the afternoon, the trend of Yinzhijie will not be too bad.
Afternoon trading continued, the ChiNext Index maintained a volatile downward trend, and Yinzhijie also underwent adjustments during this period.
However, Yinzhijie, which is undergoing adjustment, is still much stronger than the index. Since it started to rise at 10:35 in the morning, Yinzhijie has never fallen below the daily moving average again.
In the afternoon adjustment, when the index fell back to 1456.50 points, setting a new intraday low, Yinzhijie still failed to fall below the intraday average price of 22.40 yuan.
At 13:19, when the ChiNext Index hit a new intraday low, Yinzhijie slowly began to rise, and the stock price slowly began to rise from 22.40 yuan.
By 13:30, Yinzhijie was trading at 22.70 yuan, and trading volume began to gradually increase; at this time, the ChiNext Index also showed a trend of bottoming out during the day.
The intraday adjustment may end here; at 13:40, after 20 minutes of slow rise, Yinzhijie turned red again and closed at 22.94 yuan.
Not only Yin Zhijie, but also a large number of small and medium-sized start-up stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded during this period, and many stocks turned red.
Gu Junhao's Tonghuashun also performed quite well today. With a slightly higher opening throughout the day , the stock price remained in the green.
Tonghuashun’s stock price never fell below the opening price during the two sharp declines of the ChiNext Index, and its performance was far better than that of many individual stocks.
However, Tonghuashun's transaction volume today has shrunk significantly. According to Gu Junhao's estimation, it should not exceed 80 million yuan.
"Instead of rising with shrinking volume, it would be more practical to have a wide range of intraday fluctuations like Yin Zhijie." This was Gu Junhao's comment when Xu Jianqing asked him whether he wanted to buy Tong Huashun at a low price.
Yin Zhijie, which was oscillating upward, turned red again at 14:22 after turning green slightly, and the trading volume remained at a normal level.
Two minutes later, Yinzhijie reported 23.05 yuan, refreshing the opening price.
At 14:30, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, which had been volatile throughout the day, experienced a miracle moment. The Shanghai Composite Index was the first to turn positive, followed closely by the ChiNext Index.
Junshi's No. 1 heavily-held stock, Yinzhijie, reached its highlight moment of the day so far, with its share price at 23.22 yuan, up 1.40%.
Both markets turned red and entered a late-session rally. Yinzhijie's stock price continued to rise. At the end of the day, Yinzhijie closed at 23.75 yuan, up 3.71%.
Yin Zhijie, with an amplitude of nearly 8% throughout the day, just like the ChiNext Index, closed with an extremely long lower shadow and a bald positive trend on the K-line.
The overall gains in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today were not too large. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.49% to close at 2307.89, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.41% to 1479.02 points.
However, the two markets, which had shrunk in volume throughout the day, fluctuated extremely violently today, and the bull market's washout was far more ferocious than that of the bear market.
Both markets closed with a long lower shadow and a bald yang trend, which seems to indicate that this round of adjustment is about to end. Both Xibu Securities and Wan'an Technology ended up rising today.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and most of the individual stocks turned positive, causing great harm to the investors who sold their stocks in the morning.
Among them, Yinzhijie performed even worse. An announcement from Yinzhijie in the evening dealt a fatal blow to investors who sold their stocks in the early trading session today.
Yinzhijie announced on the evening of September 17 that the company received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 17, 2014 that the listed company merger and reorganization group committee will hold a working meeting in the near future to review the company's issuance of shares to purchase assets.
The company's shares will be suspended from trading from the opening of the market on September 18, 2014, and will resume trading after the company announces the results of the review.
"Fuck! It's suspended, sold out."
"Fuck, I sold it at 22.10 this morning, it was the lowest point."
"The dog dealer is waiting for the 200 shares in my hand. If I don't sell them, he won't pull them. I'll make his wish come true."
Yin Zhijie, which was suspended due to major positive news, brought endless pain to those who sold at a loss. In the absence of major changes in the two stock markets, today's selling is inevitable; and for Gu Junhao, it is also a headache.
Calculated based on real-time prices, the holdings of Dongfang Fortune and Yinzhijie stocks reached 48.5366 million yuan, accounting for 70% of Junshi No. 1's positions.
The most worrying thing has happened. 70% of the positions have been suspended, and the market value and liquidity are almost locked. It is quite a headache for a fund.
However, perhaps it was luck, or perhaps the main funds of Dongfang Wealth urged the announcement of resumption of trading after seeing that the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were expected to end their adjustments. Perhaps the suspension of trading due to equity incentives was just a pretext to avoid adjustments.
Dongfang Wealth quietly released a resumption announcement at midnight, when everyone was asleep. The announcement was very simple: "Upon application, the company's shares will resume trading from the opening of the market on September 18, 2014 (Thursday)."
With just these simple words, Gu Junhao, who was in his sleep, didn't know that the problem that was troubling him had been solved. Perhaps, in some unknown way, the time traveler also had this bit of luck.
