Chapter 215 You Shouldn't Eat
The dealer here is different from all the main players Li Yuan has encountered before.
They had a great start, played steadily, and were not swayed by the situation, sticking to their own strategy.
Otherwise it would be impossible that there has been no movement until now.
You know, what Li Yuan sold was not just a billion dollar short order, but also the confidence of the entire short market.
He attracted more short-selling funds to join.
After all, even if the price of Bitcoin is only nine thousand dollars now, it is still a very high number.
With such high attention, the number of people paying attention to it every day exceeds millions, or even tens of millions.
Even if it is a little less, 500,000 people participating in the transaction is still a huge amount of money.
Bitcoin has not been split yet and can only be traded one by one. At most, the funds are leveraged, and many platforms will provide it.
And no matter when, there are shadows of those platforms behind Bitcoin.
Short positions continue to move downward.
At around eight o'clock in the evening, Li Yuan called the traders and asked them to continue opening contracts and strive to invest all the remaining funds at the price of eight thousand US dollars.
The initial investment of more than one billion US dollars cost more than 14,000 US dollars, and the loss has reached nearly half, totaling 600 to 700 million US dollars.
If we continue to open contracts now and calculate based on the price of 9,000 US dollars, then when the price of Bitcoin drops to about 6,000 US dollars, all long contracts will be liquidated.
This path must be taken because shorting does not make sense, especially at this position.
If you want to make money, you can only go long, and you have to do it before the banker makes a move.
Once the dealer makes a move, he will have no chance.
The whole thing is just like fishing. Someone has made a fishing nest and the fish are very good, so he also wants to take a chance.
But people don’t let you use it, not because they are worried that the fish will be caught, but because they are worried that their nests will expire.
So Li Yuan could only throw a handful of bait into other people's nests, and then it depended on whether others would let him fish in it.
He had some lunch at noon but nothing at night.
Either drink some water or eat two cookies.
He cannot eat too much, as his reaction will become slow if he eats too much. The trader does the same.
Around 8 o'clock in the evening, the support for short orders gradually became stronger, although the price did not rise much.
However, it can be seen from the trading volume that the funds entering the short position are more than expected.
By ten o'clock, the price of Bitcoin had risen sharply, from around nine thousand US dollars to ten thousand six hundred.
The entire market suddenly became violent.
Because many short positions were liquidated at this position.
Those who have the ability to add margin are fine, but those who don’t are forced to buy, and then the price goes out of control.
At this time, it is almost impossible to buy chips at the market price, because it is refreshed every second. There are too many people whose positions have been liquidated, and the price quickly rose to 11,000 US dollars and 11,500 US dollars.
Those who are unable to add additional margin will have to pay the platform for the difference even if their positions are liquidated.
For example, if you use a six-fold leverage on $100,000 and open a short order at $10,000, then $11,660 is the margin call line.
Forced buying will be carried out at the first moment of liquidation, but in just a few tenths of a second, the price skyrocketed to US$13,330. Not only will the US$100,000 principal be lost, but one will also owe the platform another US$100,000.
In fact, it is not that exaggerated, but the price difference must be made up.
No? The platform will naturally tell you.
This situation was a little beyond Li Yuan's expectations.
He originally thought that the other party would quickly raise the price to 17,000 to 18,000 US dollars, directly liquidating all short positions, which would make the cuts much faster.
Now it is clear that those short positions are given the opportunity to run away. For most of them, their positions will not be blown up and they can leave the market safely by cutting some losses.
The most important point is that he was a little sleepy and hungry and wanted to leave work early.
In this situation, I can’t leave work.
In this way, I slowly endured until twelve o'clock in the night.
He never hung up the phone with the trader, and could only reply to messages using WeChat on PC.
The price has stabilized at $13,000.
Sky Capital has already made a profit, after all, their cost was only 11,000 US dollars.
Li Yuan must have suffered losses, especially the short position of one billion US dollars, in which he has already lost $300 million.
But it’s okay, the margin will only go bankrupt if it reaches 20,000 US dollars.
And if the price can reach 20,000 US dollars, the value of the long positions he holds can reach 10 billion US dollars, so he will definitely not lose money overall.
If the warehouse is liquidated, it will be liquidated...
He couldn't help it and ordered a takeout.
However, before eating the takeout, he specially wrote a document and wrote down his next operating instructions, for fear that he would not be able to react in time or had not thought it through carefully enough.
After eating, I felt much better.
Then, sleepiness came...
Fortunately, there was tea at home. I made some tea, got up from the sofa and moved to a hard bench.
It’s a good thing that the trader has changed shifts, so I don’t need to worry too much.
There was nothing to do for the time being, so the trader started chatting with Li Yuan.
"Boss, why don't you take a rest first? We can just watch over here, and you can give us some instructions."
"It's okay, it's okay. This location is quite critical. Let's wait a little longer."
"Boss, what price do you think Bitcoin can go up to?"
“No one can say for sure.”
The situation has completely changed.
Li Yuan felt that the price of 20,000 US dollars would definitely be fine, but the subsequent increase would also be very limited.
In a few years, the price rose to 40,000 or 50,000 US dollars because too much capital was involved, there was a lot of money, and the global money printing created this position.
Now? Twenty thousand dollars is pretty much the limit.
There are 21 million bitcoins in total, and 13 million have been minted so far. No one knows exactly how many dead chains there are.
Those dead links may have been cracked long ago, or even quietly entered circulation.
Anyway, the daily circulation volume is so huge that no one can figure it out.
Based on the total circulation, a unit price of US$20,000 means a market value of Bitcoin of US$260 billion.
Even for a stock with a market value of $260 billion, the funds inside it will not be less than $60 billion. For a stock with a particularly large amplitude like Bitcoin, the internal trading funds should be no less than $100 billion.
Otherwise, where does the daily trading volume of 20 billion US dollars come from?
As big capital has not yet entered the market, it is impossible for them to push the price to 30,000 US dollars because the amount of funds required is too huge.
The price of Bitcoin has risen to $14,000.
The traders have started talking about this year's bonuses.
Although they knew that they did not play a big role, they were just doing some hard labor.
But Li Yuan earns so much, it's normal for him to leave some for them to eat, right?
They are not greedy, and they are quite satisfied if each of them can get hundreds of thousands of yuan.
Anyway, they have no chance to get bonuses in other companies, and those companies themselves are even losing money.
Li Yuan had already started planning the bonuses, especially Guo Meng's bonus, which must not be reduced, as she is the most stressed person in the entire company.
And if she can withstand the pressure this time, then there should be no problem next time, which will be of great use to him.
This kind of experience in withstanding pressure is hard to find in the entire market.
If I miss this village, Guo Meng will not wait for me at the next store, so the grievance award must be given to me.
At three o'clock in the morning, the price of Bitcoin exceeded 15,000 US dollars.
Almost reaching yesterday's high.
Li Yuan took a look at the instructions he had prepared and found that there were no deviations. They were almost the same as what he was thinking at the moment.
Anyway, as long as the price reaches 20,000 US dollars, he will start to reduce his holdings.
First make a long order, then a short order. If you cooperate, you can earn a few more points.
I just can’t let my billion dollar short position explode.
But until now he still doesn't understand why the dealer is so slow.
Pulling it up little by little will give those short positions a chance to run away. If it continues like this, it may not be able to reach the price of 20,000 US dollars.
Li Yuan didn't think that there was something wrong with his thinking. The situation was contrary to his thinking, which meant that there was something behind it that he had not noticed.
Is there a possibility that doing this does not actually allow the short position to run away?
The thinking behind Bitcoin is extremely complex, and it is impossible for him to grasp it accurately. It is just a deductive simulation.
The main thing is to keep an eye on the dealer's actions...
At around four in the morning, the price of Bitcoin exceeded 16,000 US dollars.
“Ahem…”
Li Yuan was so sleepy that he lit a cigarette.
Then I was choked.
But there was also a good thing, as the whole person was choked and woke up immediately.
In addition, the stomach has finished digesting the food, and blood supply from the whole body returns to the brain.
Thinking back to some of his previous thoughts, he felt more and more that something was wrong.
At $16,000, it is undoubtedly a lucrative position.
Sky Capital earned forty-five points.
Because of the leverage, it is equivalent to earning 90 points on the principal.
At the beginning, he just wanted to take advantage of the market trend, and it would be enough to get 20 or 30 points. He would then do more in it later. Anyway, Bitcoin fluctuates enough, so if he controls his position and stays focused, it shouldn't be a problem.
It just broke the balance as soon as it entered the market, and was noticed by the funds inside.
Even though you have made a lot of money now, it may not be better than your previous plan.
Before, he was confident that he could liquidate $10 billion within a month, but now... he estimated that it would be a one-time deal.
Even if the price continued to fall, he did not dare to short sell on a large scale, as it was too dangerous to open a large short order.
The reason why he felt something was wrong was that it was too stable.
Both the dealer and other participants are unexpectedly stable.
And his previous guess lingered in his mind and became clearer and clearer.
So he opened his account, used funds, and repaid the $50 million short contract.
It is too dangerous to keep too many short positions. Even if there is some loss, you should repay it first.
It was these 50 million US dollars that seemed to push down a domino, instantly causing huge waves on the market.
He himself had never thought it would be so outrageous.
Fifty million US dollars is not a particularly large amount, and in the current market conditions, no one would even notice it.
Before his short contract was completed, the price of Bitcoin suddenly rose to 17,000 US dollars.
Compared with the usual increase of 20 to 30 points, it is not exaggerated at the moment. After all, it just fills the gap of yesterday.
But this is just the beginning.
Li Yuan seized the opportunity and continued to sell a large number of short orders.
At this time, he turned into a bull and frantically swept the chips on the field. With the dealer also eating up the chips, the price soared all the way.
Even after the price of Bitcoin reached $20,000, Li Yuan did not spend much money. In total, he only traded contracts worth less than $300 million.
The margin call line has moved up a little bit. It was originally a margin call of 20,000 US dollars, but now it has become a margin call of 20,600 US dollars.
Compared to yesterday, Bitcoin has risen by forty points today.
If we add the gap filling, the number will be even greater.
It’s just that because the statistical time is different, the existence of the time difference is not displayed on the board.
Many gaps were filled by time.
Otherwise, the data would have doubled today.
Li Yuan was no longer sleepy because he had to sell his long position and add margin to his short position.
Then, on this basis, repay the short positions as much as possible to reduce the losses caused by the short positions.
He already knew the banker's intention.
Long positions don’t matter to them; short positions are the data they value most.
Judging from the market, the trading volume is not particularly outrageous, which means that the number of short orders has been increasing.
If short positions are decreasing, trading volume will inevitably increase as prices rise.
After all, more and more warehouses are liquidated...
It's impossible that the $6 billion transaction in the past few hours had no involvement of the dealer?
If there is no guidance from the market makers, what is wrong with those short positions? Why would they do this?
Since the market maker is involved, the trading volume must be added up.
He shouldn't have eaten that meal.
After eating, the brain will become slow to react and the brain will not receive enough blood.
Although the body does not feel any discomfort, the brain will subconsciously be lazy.
For example, professional gamers basically play on an empty stomach.
There are still many professions where people cannot get enough to eat.
It depends on your reaction and skills.
Even table tennis players have to eat three hours before a game.
Some minor problems were overlooked by myself, otherwise they could have been discovered in advance and I would have avoided a lot of loss.
It is now almost impossible to repay the short positions in my hands. I can only let the price rise and continue to add margin.
The number of short orders on the market is absolutely astonishing.
The market maker deliberately raised the price slowly instead of immediately blowing it up for everyone. His purpose was only to allow more funds to participate in the short selling.
After all, some people dared to short at $10,000. Now it is $14,000 or $15,000. Why don’t you dare to follow suit?
Bitcoin cannot possibly be worth that much! Only a fool would go long!
Therefore, the actual situation is that as Bitcoin rises, short positions have not decreased, but have increased instead.
Just like GameStop a few years later.
It's just...the identities were swapped.
At this time , the market makers are going long and retail investors are going short.
