Chapter 205: Short Airbus!
"What did you say?" The person in charge who stood up showed an incredible look on his face: "You said that you can solve the problem that the LEAP engine cannot be adapted to the 737?"
"You speak Chinese very well, don't you? What's the matter? Did you not understand a word I said just now?" Xu Cang picked up the tea and took a sip calmly: "Of course, I only provide you with an idea to solve the problem. The specific operation and how to implement it are still up to you Boeing engineers to do."
The person in charge still couldn't accept this information. How could a young man in his twenties with no technical background solve a problem that Boeing's technical department couldn't solve no matter how hard they racked their brains?
"Xu Cang, are you making fun of me?"
Xu Cang raised his eyebrows, a little surprised: "You still know how to make fun of others? It seems that you have been in China for a long time. If you say so, your Boeing engineers should not be good-for-nothings, right? They should be able to tell whether the ideas I provide are feasible or not. Of course, it doesn't matter if you really don't believe me. Wait, wait until Airbus launches a new generation of narrow-body aircraft. By then, it won't be the price of two 737-900s."
The person in charge's eyelids were twitching. Boeing had definitely taken a greater risk in this deal, but it was unusual for Boeing to lag behind Airbus in the launch of new narrow-body aircraft.
You should know that among large narrow-body passenger aircraft, the Boeing 737 still occupies the highest sales throne, but the Airbus 320 is only about 2,000 less than the Boeing 737. For a high-value commodity like a large passenger aircraft, 2,000 is definitely a huge gap.
However, this sales volume is cumulative sales. The 737 has been sold for more than 30 years, while the Airbus 320 has only been launched for a little over 10 years, with a gap of 20 years in between.
If so, the 737 is slightly less competitive than the Airbus 320 when it appears on the market. Moreover, according to the budget of Boeing's marketing department, in about fifteen years, the sales volume of the Airbus 320 will close the final gap and reach the same level as the Boeing 737.
Combined with the market analysis of the past decade, the Airbus 320 has a stronger stamina than the Boeing 737. This means that the Airbus 320 will not only bring the two to the same level, but will also surpass them.
The most important thing is that three years ago, Boeing acquired McDonnell Douglas, a once powerful airliner giant, which became a little too proud and relaxed its squeeze on Airbus. As a result, Airbus became a threat to the company. In just a few years, Airbus has become a threat to the company.
Xu Cang glanced at the person in charge with a gloomy face and smiled brightly: "There's no need to be so anxious. What if one day your Boeing engineers suddenly have an idea and find a solution?"
The muscles on the head's face kept twitching. Xu Cang looked young, but his words were full of hurtful words, and he had no choice but to refute. In fact, he didn't understand why Xu Cang knew so much about Boeing's situation?
Regardless of other things, the launch of new aircraft models is always time-sensitive, and anyone who does business knows that it is important to be the first to occupy the market. However, Boeing has begun to lag behind in the progress of the new generation of narrow-body aircraft. If Boeing cannot find a way to adapt the LEAP engine to the 737 fuselage, it will have to replace the engine or change the fuselage.
Since Boeing decided to use the LEAP engine when it planned its new generation of narrow-body aircraft, if the engine needs to be replaced, the fuselage system drawings prepared for the LEAP engine must also be changed.
What's more, as CFM's latest engine, only this high-performance engine can achieve MAX efficiency, MAX reliability, and MAX passenger appeal. More importantly, Boeing has revealed to airlines that the new generation of narrow-body aircraft will have significantly lower fuel consumption than the 737NG.
Of course, by changing the fuselage structure, such as installing special winglets, it is possible to reduce fuel consumption to a certain extent. However, from the perspective of fuel saving, the engine is always a big fuel consumer. How to consume less fuel while meeting the same power requirements? On the market, or in the foreseeable future, there is only the LEAP series engine.
If Boeing abandons the LEAP engine and there is no alternative engine option on the market, it will not be able to implement the project concept of the new generation of narrow-body aircraft. From the perspective of the airlines, it will be a slap in the face.
So, it’s not that Boeing is determined to use the LEAP engine, but that Boeing has no choice.
Why did the person in charge continue to talk to Xu Cang even though he thought what Xu Cang said was just a lie? That's because Boeing's technical department really seemed to be at its wit's end.
Rather than expecting Boeing engineers to have a flash of inspiration, it's better to expect Airbus to come up with some extremely stupid strategy next year and then destroy itself.
From the very beginning of the new generation narrow-body aircraft project, some engineers actually raised the issue that the LEAP engine was too large. However, because Boeing had previously solved the problem of the CFM56 engine being too large, and after communicating with CFM, CFM agreed to provide Boeing with a special model with a blade diameter of only 175 cm.
That’s right, the CFM56 on the 737NG also encountered the problem of not being able to be loaded, but the diameter of the CFM56 blade is only 155 cm, so it was finally squeezed in.
Perhaps the success of CFM56 gave Boeing's technical department inexplicable confidence. Coupled with the fact that the blades can be shortened, they vowed at a seminar on the new generation narrow-body aircraft project that the engine size is not an unsolvable problem.
After receiving the LEAP engine with a blade length reduced by 30 centimeters, Boeing engineers were dumbfounded. Even so, the engine could not be inserted. It is precisely because of these factors that Boeing is in such a difficult situation.
As for changing the fuselage layout, that is basically out of the question. Although the person in charge just said it with great confidence, in fact, the Boeing board of directors will not care about these things. They still clearly calculate the difference in cost between changing an entire aircraft for an engine and changing an engine for an aircraft.
Even intellectually, giving the 737 a new body would be more beneficial in the long run.
However, the thinking of technicians and businessmen never overlaps. Unfortunately, businessmen often have the final say, while technicians can only rack their brains in the face of almost harsh problems.
Perhaps we can do as Xu Cang said and wait until Boeing is desperate before considering this proposal. In fact, the price issue is not a big deal. The key is that by that time, too much time will be wasted, and it will not be of much value.
Therefore, when Xu Cang raised this question, Boeing's choice space was already very small.
"You really know how to seize opportunities." The person in charge held his forehead with one hand: "The 777 test was like this, and the LEAP engine problem this time is also like this."
Apart from other things, Xu Cang was really good at finding Boeing's weaknesses. The 777 accidentally got the drawings of the 737NG, and the adaptability of the LEAP engine seemed to require getting two 737-900 aircraft from Boeing.
Xu Cang hummed: "I'll take it as you are praising me!"
The person in charge closed his eyes and thought for a moment, then gave an answer on the spot: "You can tell me your solution first, and I will feedback to the technical department. If they think it is feasible, we can give you two 737-900 aircraft."
"Are you kidding me?" Xu Cang looked at the person in charge as if he were a fool. "If I tell you this and you guys turn against me afterwards, then I will just have to suffer in silence. Book the plane first and we can talk about the rest later."
"What if you're just talking nonsense? We'll be the ones who suffer," the person in charge yelled angrily.
In an instant, half of the people in the restaurant looked towards Xu Cang's table. The person in charge probably knew that he had lost his composure, so he coughed twice to cover up his embarrassment.
"If you don't want to suffer a loss, then let's not talk about it." Xu Cang spread his hands: "However, there is one thing I need to make clear to you. The test of the 777 is tied to this matter. If you don't agree to this, then forget about the test of the 777. You can keep the 737-900 in Seattle for yourselves."
"You..." The anger that had just subsided in the person in charge burst out again, and was on the verge of exploding: "Xu Cang, there is an old saying in your country, leave a way out for everything, so that we can meet again in the future. Could it be that you will not cooperate with us Boeing when you run an airline in the future?"
Xu Cang's face was serious, and he raised a finger very seriously: "First of all, Boeing is a big company, and I don't have the right to decide whether to cooperate or not. Second, don't we still have Airbus? Although adding more models will add additional operating costs, the Airbus assembly plant in Tianjin has been built, so it is very convenient for us to switch to Airbus models."
In fact, for small airlines, Airbus models are a relatively better choice, at least in terms of initial investment. It’s just that Airbus aircraft are a little more delicate, while Boeing is an "air tractor", which is very durable and easier to maintain in the later stage.
Therefore, the two are a short-term and long-term choice. However, small airlines have financing needs, so expanding the fleet size as much as possible in a short period of time is conducive to attracting financing.
Hearing this, the person in charge smiled triumphantly for the first time: "Xu Cang, Xu Cang, do you think the Airbus assembly plant in Tianjin will bring you economic benefits and technology transfer? Do you think that everything is settled now that this project has started? Do you think you have gained an advantage in the deal with Airbus? No, Airbus has plenty of ways to get back double the losses from the assembly plant. Just wait and see!"
Xu Cang's eyelids jumped: "What do you mean?"
"It doesn't matter. Two 737-900s are just two 737-900s. It doesn't matter! Your compatriots will pay for this investment on our behalf." The person in charge chuckled and said, "Yeah, why should I be angry? We will give you whatever you want. In the end, it will all flow back into Boeing's pocket anyway."
Xu Cang's face suddenly darkened. The meaning behind this sentence was too heavy, so heavy that he could hardly breathe. However, Xu Cang was no longer the cheerful guy he used to be. After a short period of emotional adjustment, Xu Cang laughed instead: "It doesn't matter what you give me, as long as I can contain Airbus, right? So what do you think of Airbus's hub airline plan, Boeing?"
The first aircraft model born out of the hub airline plan is the A380, a true aerial giant that shocked the world.
"You are so powerful, you must know that Boeing also briefly participated in the hub airline program, right?" The person in charge may have sorted out the knot in his heart and recognized the primary and secondary contradictions. His horizons suddenly broadened and his mood became quite peaceful. He spoke to Xu Cang in a calm manner, as if he was in control of everything.
"But you guys eventually withdrew. Do you think the hub airline plan will never happen?"
The person in charge put the tea he had taken a sip of on the table and said, "You have to know that we can't steal business from ourselves."
"That means you still think the hub airline plan has a chance of success?" Xu Cang asked, "Is that what you mean?"
The person in charge clicked his tongue, showing a hint of impatience: "No one can have a 100% accurate prediction of the market. If you want my answer, yes, the hub airline plan does have the possibility of success. Isn't the market response at the beginning of this project enough to reflect this point?"
"That's right! Just like you guys randomly modified a military cargo plane plan and it led to the birth of the 747, right?"
The person in charge flicked his fingertips lightly on the wall of the cup, making a crisp sound: "Xu Cang, do you think I am the kind of person who has a lot of free time?"
"No!" Xu Cang laughed: "No, no, didn't I hear you say that Airbus is the biggest threat? It just so happens that I have a skill, maybe I can help."
"Oh?" The person in charge had no interest in small talk, but was very interested in suppressing Airbus: "I'd like to hear more about it."
Xu Cang leaned back slightly and said, "As for me, besides my slightly impressive flying skills, I also have another advantage that is not worth mentioning, which is that I have a good eye."
The person in charge laughed and said, “What do you mean by that?”
"The hub airline plan, no, to be precise, the A380 project will be a failed project." Xu Cang said seriously.
The person in charge was stunned for a moment, then sneered with disdain: "I am really out of my mind. I actually expected you to say something useful. You should just fly your plane. The agreement will be modified. I can accept the two 737-900s on behalf of the headquarters. The supplementary agreement will be signed on the day the flight test is completed, which includes the transfer of two 737-900s. After that, tell me the method to solve the compatibility problem of the LEAP engine. Well, it's late, I won't bother you anymore!"
After saying that, the person in charge made a move to stand up, and it seemed that he really wanted to end this conversation. There was no way, Xu Cang actually said that the A380 would be a failed project. Judging from the current feedback from the world market on the A380, it is not known how successful the A380 will be, but at least it will definitely not be a failure.
You little brat, you are talking nonsense!
"It's okay. How about I give you a sample? One hundred million. I'll give you a sample with one hundred million." Xu Cang smiled, appearing very sincere: "How can the market trend that everyone can see clearly show my vision? You know, pilots have always had very high requirements for their eyes."
"One hundred million?" The person in charge stopped looking contemptuous. This was not a small amount of money, and Xu Cang at least didn't look like a crazy person. The person in charge thought about it and instantly understood Xu Cang's plan: "Are you going to sell Airbus?"
It is common sense that you can make money when the stock price goes up. But in fact, you can also make money when the stock price goes down, which is called short selling. Since Xu Cang confidently predicted that the A380 project would fail, as Airbus's trump card model, the failure of this project is bound to hit Airbus's stock price hard, so short selling Airbus is naturally easy.
But the problem is that with the launch of the A380 project , Airbus is in full swing, so where is the sign of a collapse? Moreover, short selling is not a long-term strategy because you need to pay interest to the brokerage firm, so you can only make money if the stock price falls sharply in the short term.
However, the person in charge could not imagine the possibility that Airbus could slide into the abyss at such a peak. In fact, short selling usually involves human intervention, that is, people will not really wait foolishly for the stock price of the short selling target to plummet. Isn't that just waiting for something to happen?
Therefore, short sellers generally spread negative public opinion about the company that needs to be shorted in order to reduce investors' confidence in the company, thereby artificially causing the company's stock price to plummet, so that they can make a profit.
But the problem is, this method of creating public opinion requires an omnipotent ability. How could Xu Cang be qualified to do this?
"You want to short Airbus? Are you qualified? We at Boeing can't do it." The person in charge said, "Airbus's stock price has been rising, and the situation is very good. I advise you to go long. However, you bet 100 million that the A380 project will fail just to set an example for us. I'm afraid your purpose is more than that, right?"
Xu Cang said, "Of course! If the A380 encounters a setback, it will be the weakest time for Airbus. You Boeing will surely be very interested in kicking the fallen dog, right? Airbus is now in its heyday, and short-selling public opinion will have little effect. But if Airbus falls in the future, Boeing's public relations and financial departments should be able to clean up Airbus, right? When the time comes, just take me to eat meat again."
The person in charge was stunned for a moment, then burst into laughter: "Xu Cang, ask yourself, you should not have a good impression of us Boeing, right? Regardless of whether this matter succeeds or not, are you willing to join us in cleaning up Airbus?"
Xu Cang thought about it and said seriously: "Two annoying people are hanging around in front of me, and only one annoying person is hanging around in front of me. I think it's more peaceful to be alone."
"Okay! If you want to show us an example, then we'll wait and see. If your vision is as good as you say, then there's no harm in us cooperating." The person in charge finally stood up: "Very good, Xu Cang! You don't seem as annoying as you look. One hundred million, haha! How about this, in return, I'll also reveal a piece of news to you as a gift in return."
Xu Cang raised his eyebrows: "What news?"
"Two companies are very interested in you. However, they are very dissatisfied with your investment of energy in such a boring business as an airline, so they hope that we will not provide you with any new aircraft services, including leasing. This matter has not been completely finalized yet, and everything depends on the results of the Rolls-Royce test flight in which you participate." The person in charge smiled and said, "To be honest, Xu Cang! Our 777 test is actually not very dangerous. We know this in our hearts. We insist on using you just to ensure that the worst situation will not happen. However, in order for Rolls-Royce to compete with the GP7200 engine, the test you will participate in will be more than ten times more dangerous than the 777 test. For some things, you are really willing to give it all. However, what those two said is right. It is a waste of talent for you to work in an airline company."
"Oh, I may not have made myself clear. It's not us, it's us and Airbus."
Even though he had received a reminder from Li Rongcheng before, when Xu Cang heard the news confirmed, his expression still fluctuated a little: "These are two really powerful companies, they really think highly of me!"
"No! Xu Cang, you have no idea how valuable you are." The person in charge sighed, "In this country, you are a pearl covered in dust. Li Rongcheng should have mentioned to you that as long as you are willing, we can help you with your nationality and everything else. On the other side of the ocean, you can fully display your talents and live a life that is ten times richer than now."
"Then I think Li Rongcheng has conveyed my meaning."
The person in charge showed a trace of regret on his face: "Xu Cang, I now doubt whether your vision is really as accurate as you said. In this world, there has never been any nation or country, only... class! Did you change your nationality? No, we just want you to be in the class you should be in."
Faced with the person in charge's tempting words, Xu Cang said nothing more. He just closed his eyes and remained silent.
The person in charge saw Xu Cang's expression and smiled: "If you don't like it, then that's all for today, let's go!"
After saying this, the person in charge said no more and his figure gradually disappeared in the noisy restaurant.
As the footsteps faded away, Xu Cang slowly opened his eyes. In the past, he might have been angry, but now he could not muster any emotion at all. If he got sick from anger, he would have to take responsibility for it himself.
After thinking for a while, Xu Cang took out his cell phone and called Chen Jinwu.
Soon, the call was connected, and Chen Jinwu's slightly tired voice came from the other end: "Xu Cang, what's wrong?"
"Mr. Chen, I want to ask you about the current situation of the Jinmen Assembly Plant."
"Ah?" Chen Jinwu didn't seem to expect Xu Cang to ask this. He hesitated for a while and finally said, "What news can I get? Everything is proceeding in an orderly manner."
Xu Cang narrowed his eyes: "Mr. Chen, I am not a child anymore, and I also hope you treat me like a child."
"Hey! Xu Cang, why are you asking?"
Hearing this, Xu Cang pursed his lips and said, "Is Airbus playing tricks?"
"Let me tell you this," Chen Jinwu sighed, "The economic benefits created by the Tianjin Assembly Plant are actually secondary. Our main goal is to learn Airbus's whole-machine testing technology, which Airbus is the best in the world."
The so-called whole-machine testing technology is to test the independent and cooperative operation of each system after the aircraft is assembled. New aircraft cannot be casually taken to the sky for a flight, so the technology of simulating the operation of each system of the aircraft in the ground workshop came into being.
Airbus is unique in this field, and even Boeing cannot match it.
"The original plan was to initially employ 80 percent foreign technicians and 20 percent domestic personnel in technical management positions, and then gradually increase the number of domestic personnel." Chen Jinwu said, "However, Airbus believes that our domestic technicians cannot guarantee the quality of Airbus aircraft assembly, and we need to maintain this staffing configuration for at least five years. After five years, Airbus will evaluate whether to increase domestic personnel."
"Is there no one in the country who wants to talk to you? What kind of bullshit is this?"
"Xu Cang, you don't understand. The Tianjin Assembly Plant is involved... It's very complicated anyway. Everyone can't work together. They are just a mob in front of Airbus. However, if it were just that, it would be fine, but the salary expenditure of foreign technicians is too high. The expatriate fees, travel expenses and various subsidies add up to almost four times their salaries in their original countries. Moreover, the family members brought by these foreign technicians to China also need to be settled, and they have to pay living subsidies separately. Just based on the current calculations, the cost of Airbus products produced in China may be higher than those produced abroad. Don't you think it's ridiculous?"
At the beginning, the intention of establishing the Airbus General Assembly Plant was to rely on price advantages to promote the reputation of the Tianjin General Assembly Plant and then undertake more upstream technologies. As a result, the cost of domestically produced finished products is higher than that of finished products assembled abroad. What future does the Tianjin General Assembly Plant have?
"Mr. Chen, do you think this matter can be negotiated?"
"It's very difficult!" Chen Jinwu was very pessimistic: "It doesn't matter. This is not the first time we have suffered a loss. Let's learn from it."
Bang!
Xu Cang closed his flip phone directly. This was the first time he hung up Chen Jinwu rudely. This was of course quite rude, but Xu Cang didn't know what to say next.
Xu Cang took a deep breath and suddenly felt his phone vibrate again. He originally thought it was Chen Jinwu calling him, but when he looked at the caller ID, it was not Chen Jinwu's number, but an unfamiliar number.
After thinking for a while, Xu Cang answered the phone. A lazy voice soon came from the other end: "You are right. Domestic financial controls have indeed been relaxed. You really got it right."
The voice was none other than Xiao Lingyun, who was devoted to insurance.
"You said you want to hire me to invest. Okay! But I don't want a fixed salary. I want 5% of your investment profit."
"Didn't you think it was unreasonable for me to want to invest in Apple and Google?"
Xiao Lingyun smiled and said, "Only by doing unreasonable things can you make incredible wealth. It doesn't matter. Anyway, I won't lose money. Why, do you still want to invest in Apple and Google now?"
"You can put these two investments aside for now. Now do something else for me."
In Xu Cang's memory, Apple's stock price will remain sluggish for a while, and it will take several years for it to really take off. Google is not listed yet, and it will take four years before it goes public, so it would be okay to wait another two years before investing.
"Hmm?" Xiao Lingyun was startled: " What do you want to do now?"
Xu Cang moved his lips slightly and told Xiao Lingyun all his plans.
About ten minutes later, there was no sound from Xiao Lingyun. I don't know if he was shocked by Xu Cang's plan.
"Do you have any familiar brokerage firms?" Xu Cang asked.
Soon, Xiao Lingyun finally spoke: "Why play stocks without a familiar brokerage firm? However, have you really thought about using 100 million to short Airbus? Maybe you overestimate my ability. I don't have the ability to short Airbus, even if 100 of me were tied up. Since shorting is not possible artificially, we can only wait for Airbus stock to plummet naturally."
“Didn’t I just tell you? Airbus’s stock price will plummet in the near future. You don’t need to get involved. Just wait for the harvest.”
"Xu Cang, wait a minute!" Xiao Lingyun still couldn't wrap his mind around it. "Although I don't play stocks anymore, I still have some understanding of the market. The Airbus A380 project is booming right now. Why don't you go long? What you said before about Apple and Google is indeed miserable now, but Apple won back Jobs, so your fantasy about Jobs is still reasonable. And no matter what Google says, the PAGERANK patent may become a weight to turn the tide in the future. These two investments seem risky, but at least there is hope for a turnaround. But what the hell is shorting Airbus? It will plummet in the short term. The A380 project is a real manufacturing industry, not a castle in the air finance. Even if it is going to fall, it will not plummet out of thin air. Do you think all the people in Airbus are fools? No, Xu Cang, do you hate Airbus so much? Don't get yourself into trouble by using that 100 million to clean up Airbus."
"Who said I'm going to clean up Airbus?" Xu Cang said with a smile.
Xiao Lingyun was very surprised: "What do you mean?"
Xu Cang's face darkened instantly: "Airbus is not doomed yet, let's deal with Boeing first."
