Chapter 180 Zhongguo Nanche
August 2, Tuesday, Yangcheng; in Su Mingyu's bedroom.
Su Mingyu, with the door closed, sat in front of the computer wearing only a pair of shorts.
Since August, the temperature in various places has continued to break historical highs, which made Su Mingyu, who was preparing to travel during the summer vacation, feel like giving up.
Su Mingyu has not traded for a while since he liquidated his shares in Dafu Technology.
As the capital becomes larger, one should be more cautious in building stock positions. This caution applies to the selection of targets, not that one cannot go all in on a stock.
After learning Gu Junhao's operating ideas, Su Mingyu no longer had any resistance to going all in on a stock.
After a month of intensive study and reviewing past operations, Su Mingyu has gained a new understanding of stock investment.
Don't rush into trading. The stock market has experienced great ups and downs in July, especially the ChiNext Index. If you buy at the beginning of the month, it may be difficult to hold on until the end of the month when the decline stops and the rebound occurs.
After six months of bottoming out, the Shanghai Composite Index finally broke through at the end of the month.
This made Su Mingyu even more resolute in his views on the market as he had discussed them with Gu Junhao before.
In terms of stock selection, Su Mingyu also adheres to Gu Junhao's ideas, starting from the macroeconomic aspect, focusing on future trends, and then judging the fundamentals of individual stocks and auxiliary technical analysis.
The gratifying performance of Junshi No. 1 in July is also an important reference for Su Mingyu's view on A-shares. Even the big plunge at the end of Friday this week still failed to change Su Mingyu's view on the market.
At this moment, Su Mingyu was a bit like a die-hard bull, that is, he was firmly bullish.
When it comes to the selection of stock targets, Su Mingyu is obviously influenced by Gu Junhao. Gu Junhao is more accustomed to left-side trading, even though NetEase Technology and Dafu Technology were already at high levels based on the trend at the time.
In Gu Junhao's view, they all belong to the left side. Looking at the extended K-line, the intervention point is not a particularly high point, but it is just the position before the start.
The left side does not represent an absolute low point.
Days without trading do not mean not paying attention to the stock market. When Su Mingyu is at home with nothing to do, apart from taking care of his figures, he spends most of his time sitting in front of the computer analyzing stocks and playing games.
The happiness of a single person is sometimes just that simple.
Over the past month, Su Mingyu has paid the most attention to the Shanghai Composite Index and related stocks in A-shares. Su Mingyu also has his own considerations on this point. Judging from the name of the fund Junshi No. 1, Gu Ge's fund should focus more on small and medium-sized growth stocks.
Moreover, Brother Gu's private seat had also appeared on Tong Huashun's Dragon and Tiger List. Su Mingyu had vaguely discovered this before, and he was also sure that Brother Gu must still hold Tong Huashun at this time.
Su Mingyu firmly believed that Brother Gu would not miss the increase in Tonghuashun in July.
Considering that he is the largest customer of Junshi No. 1, in order to prevent suspicion of insider trading and get himself and Brother Gu into trouble, Su Mingyu decided to position his holdings in blue-chip stocks with heavyweights.
The A-share market is divided into two parts: 2:8, and small and medium-sized enterprises are active. However, since it is believed that the economy is improving and the stock market will have a big market, there will definitely be no lack of heavyweight blue-chip stocks to pull it up, which can be seen from the end of July.
Blue chips have been in great glory recently, with major sectors rising in turn. Compared with the small and medium-sized growth stocks that have been falling continuously, they have stolen the limelight.
The only thing Su Mingyu didn't understand was how Brother Gu selected stocks and controlled the position drawdown, so that Junshi No. 1 could still maintain a highly efficient upward trend among a number of small and medium-sized start-ups that were falling continuously.
Su Mingyu didn't think that Gu Junhao would switch to blue-chip stocks. In past communications, although Brother Gu did not deny that blue chips would rise, he never showed any interest in blue chips.
From a macroeconomic perspective, economic recovery is inseparable from infrastructure construction, and a piece of news today also caught Su Mingyu's attention.
"The Thai government has approved a $23.3 billion transportation project, under which two high-speed railways are planned to be completed in 2021 and interconnected with the Huaxia Railway."
This is to build a high-speed railway. The amount of money is so high, and it will be in cooperation with our country, and the ultimate interconnection and interoperability. Only large state-owned enterprises can take on this project. The ultimate beneficiary of such a project will definitely be the industrial chain related to the high-speed railway.
"High-speed rail is also an important part of infrastructure construction. With more and more high-speed rail being built in recent years, the relevant industrial chain will definitely usher in a period of explosive performance."
This piece of news is very attractive to Su Mingyu, who is currently selecting stocks; the infrastructure sector, the currently hottest One Belt One Road concept, and the state-owned enterprise reform concept that may be involved in the future.
With the judgment of the general trend and direction, the support of three major concepts, and his own business, Su Mingyu finally selected his favorite target, a stock with a Chinese character in its head that most investors look down upon: Zhongguo CSR.
Believing in yourself is the prerequisite for stock trading. After judging the general direction and trend, you can judge right or wrong by the trend, but once you decide on stock selection, you must not hesitate.
After selecting the sector, the next step is to look at specific stock targets. This can be judged based on the previous industry position of its core business. Selecting stocks and leading stocks is always effective.
As for whether the leader conforms to one's own operating logic, this depends on one's own opinion.
Analyzing CSR from a fundamental perspective, among its main revenue products, railway equipment accounts for 40%, urban rail and urban infrastructure accounts for 24%, and other industries account for 32%.
The industry is developing, the economy is recovering at an accelerated pace, and the accelerated approval of large-scale high-speed railways as well as light rail and subways in major cities will surely bring him a breakthrough point in performance.
Stock speculation is all about expectations. When earnings expectations are maximized and supported by various concepts, stocks with the Chinese character "Zhong" in their names can also rise sharply. Therefore, it seems that the price around 5 yuan is not its end point.
Whether analyzed from the perspective of market value or its concept, this stock is currently undervalued in the current upward trend of the industry.
After analyzing the fundamentals and final expectations, the next thing is the technical aspect. From the K-line trend chart of CSR, there are three low points, namely 3.83 yuan on September 27, 2013, 4.04 yuan on February 26, 2014 and 4.15 yuan on June 4, 2014.
Each round of adjustments is completed on a quarterly basis. After rounds of band-like adjustments, the low points become higher and higher, and the trading volume gradually increases.
At the recent low point, CSR's transaction volume had reached a maximum of more than 700 million yuan. Funds are entering the market at an accelerated pace, and in this round of rebound, CSR has also created a yield of nearly 24%.
Judging from past trends, CSR, which has been rebounding for two months, is about to enter a period of adjustment. The fact that CSR fell below the five-day line on Friday also seems to indicate this.
However, in this round of adjustments, Su Mingyu does not think that CSR will continue to fall to around 4 yuan. The reason is that with the rebound of the Shanghai Composite Index and its own trading volume, the timing has allowed it to continue to fall so deeply.
In Su Mingyu's judgment, the upper limit price of CSR is around 5 yuan, and its important support point is at 4.9 yuan. If it effectively falls below 4.9 yuan, a stop loss point will need to be set in a short time.
There is no short-term downward risk, and there are long-term expectations. The current price is also very appropriate. Even if it is really a misjudgment and falls below 4.9 yuan, the stop loss value is only 5%, which is completely within the limit.
"Good, it's very suitable for building a position, and the trading volume is also very consistent. We will enter the observation period next week." Like most people, Su Mingyu was also very excited after selecting suitable stocks for building a position.
Big A, I'm coming back!
There is actually a lot of news this weekend. After being immersed in news for nearly a month in July, it seemed that it could no longer be suppressed and there was a collective outburst on the first weekend of this month.
Although the Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply on Friday, the stock index returned to below 2,200 points, ending its eight-day winning streak.
But speaking of this week's market, except for Friday, the market's money-making effect was excellent in the first four days when the heavyweight and small and medium-sized start-ups soared, and most investors made a lot of profits in this round of transactions.
As for Friday's plunge, in the eyes of most people, it was nothing more than the liberation of the trapped shares above 2200 points, seeking to escape, which ultimately led to serious differences between long and short positions inside and outside the market.
The plunge did not change the views of most investors on the future market, especially large institutions, and the reason for all this came from the news this weekend.
The news outbreak began with the official release of the Purchasing Managers' Index for July by the statistics department on Saturday. The PMI in July rose by 0.7 percentage points month-on-month, hitting a 27-month high and exceeding market expectations.
The central bank has also taken a series of actions. In addition to maintaining the amount of reverse repurchase unchanged, the central bank also lowered the reverse repurchase rate from 3.8% to 3.7%. This change has attracted widespread attention in the market.
The market generally interprets the signal revealed by this change as that expectations of interest rate cuts are expected to be further strengthened, and expectations of market liquidity easing are also gradually heating up.
Under the current economic environment, monetary policy is expected to continue to remain in a relatively loose environment, which is welcomed by the majority of investors.
Loose monetary policy will inevitably lead to capital outflow from the stock market, which is closely related to the financial system. The reason why 2015 was nicknamed the leveraged bull market is also closely related to the loose monetary policy.
As for the real estate market, which is of most concern to the general public, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also made it clear this weekend that housing prices will not collapse, although most people are currently skeptical about this static situation.
But with the statements made by the relevant departments, people's hearts have been reassured. Sometimes ordinary people don't care whether what is said is true or false. Everyone just needs a word of comfort.
The intensive release of positive news over the weekend also dispelled the brief panic caused by fund divergence on Friday.
…
When he is not trading, Su Mingyu would watch the market but he would often sleep in. However, Su Mingyu set the alarm early last night and got up at eight o'clock this morning.
After washing up and having breakfast, Su Mingyu returned to his computer desk, waiting for today's final opening results. After an intensive bombardment of good news last weekend, today's call auction ended, and the three major stock indexes all opened higher, sweeping away the gloom of the late plunge on Friday.
The index has stabilized again, which is a good thing for building a position and there is no need to wait too long. Zhongguo CSR opened at 5.15 yuan today, firmly standing at the 10-day line.
In the call auction, CSR traded over 4,000 lots, with a significant increase in volume.
"Okay, hold on, let's go for it." After clearing out all the stocks, Su Mingyu had more than 5 million in cash, in addition to repaying the 2 million he borrowed from his father for the previous investment fund.
There is currently 3 million yuan in the account, which has been divided into two buy orders totaling 5,000 lots at a price of 5.18 yuan, with a total amount of nearly 2.6 million yuan.
"It's OK. The daily transaction volume is at least 300 million. There is no problem with this amount of funds. I just don't know if I can buy it."
Judging from the positive news over the weekend and today's market sentiment, today's rebound trend is still relatively obvious, and the amount of funds scrambled for by Zhongguo CSR and CSR has also increased significantly.
Based on these judgments, Su Mingyu set the order price at 5.18 yuan in order to complete the position as soon as possible. The five-day line price of CSR is 5.20 yuan, and there is no problem in the price rising to this level. In this way, he can complete the position and make some profit at the same time.
At the same time, in the trading room of Junshi Capital in Yongcheng Beicang, Gu Junhao and others were also watching the market. The sentiment in both markets was good today, and the situation of the basic positions falling sharply last Friday was alleviated.
"Haha, I thought the adjustment would continue for a while, but I didn't expect it to be over in just one hour last Friday." Xu Jianqing laughed.
"What are you laughing at? There's no obvious change in Yinzhijie's trading volume." Liu Tingting looked at Xu Jianqing speechlessly.
Among the four stocks, only Xibu Securities opened higher today due to the influence of the broader market, while the other three opened flat. The choice of big funds is clear at a glance.
"That's fine. A lot of transactions were completed in the call auction. It will definitely not be less than last Friday."
Trading started at 9:30. The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and ended higher, with the index rising in a step-by-step manner, while the ChiNext Index fluctuated around the red market. Individual stocks and indices were based on a recovery trend.
The best performing fund today is still Xibu Securities. Although the overall increase of Xibu Securities is not particularly large since July, as far as the fund is concerned, Xibu Securities is like a stabilizing force, which has been stabilizing the net value of the fund.
In a bull market, brokerage firms take the lead. If you don’t invest in authentic brokerage stocks, you won’t have such an experience. Although brokerage stocks are called scumbags, they are indeed the most stable in a bull market.
The fund account has a stable output holding, so even if Liu Tingting does not do T, there is no need to worry too much about the fund's drawdown rate.
Less than half an hour after the start of trading, Xibu Securities successfully rose to more than 1%, and has continued to rise and strengthen step by step since then, keeping pace with the Shanghai Composite Index.
The performance of other stocks held was relatively weak, especially Yinzhijie, which opened flat and continued to fluctuate downward after opening. Although the trading price was more active than last Friday, there was no obvious increase in volume.
The sluggish performance of the positions also meant that there was no need to trade today. After observing the market trend for an hour, Gu Junhao also left the trading room.
Although Shen Boyu has blocked many people who were looking for investment, in this society where human relationships are important, there will always be some people whom you cannot refuse.
Although it has been clearly stated that the company has no intention of issuing a second fund for the time being due to human resource constraints, this has not stopped investors' enthusiasm, and some investors are still willing to visit.
The people who came to visit the company today were introduced by Qin Junkai. Qin Junkai helped a lot in raising funds for the first fund locally. This is a favor that I cannot refuse.
It's called a visit, but in fact it's just an opportunity to get to know each other and get in close contact with Gu Junhao. Not releasing it now doesn't mean it won't be released in the future.
Everyone can make friends first, so that it will be easier to get on board when new funds are issued in the future; of course, all this must be based on the premise that Junshi No. 1 can continue to maintain stable returns.
The capital market changes very quickly. Perhaps one day you will be abandoned by the market without knowing it. This is true for individual investors, funds, and listed companies.
Different from Gu Junhao, Xu Jianqing and others who were relaxed, Su Mingyu was somewhat excited at this moment. He built a position of 2.6 million yuan at one time, which was the first time in his life that he bought at the million level.
Zhongguo CNR opened high and continued to rise just as Su Mingyu had predicted. At the beginning of the opening, large orders above the thousand-hand level kept appearing, but fortunately the orders were placed early enough.
Su Mingyu's 5,000 chips were successfully traded at 9:32, and the average transaction price was exactly 5.18 yuan he had set. However, by 9:33, Zhongguo CSR was no longer available at this price.
At 9:33, the share price of Zhongguo CSR, which saw large orders continuously appearing, climbed to 5.20 yuan and once again reached the five-day line price. Looking at the remaining 400,000 yuan of funds in the account, Su Mingyu did not plan to buy any more.
Directly transfer the money into your personal bank account in one go. As for buying stocks, money is never enough. But the reason for making money is, of course, to spend it.
I already have 5,000 chips in hand, so I don't lack the last 400,000 yuan to make money. But with these 400,000 yuan, I can buy more figures.
Su Mingyu felt very happy when he thought of this; unlike the well-known rich second-generations who indulged in wine and women and lived a life of debauchery, Su Mingyu was a complete 2D otaku, and his only experience of chasing girls ended in failure.
His roommate comforted him in a more unique way: "The second dimension doesn't need women, paper figures and figurines are our companions."
The trading volume of Zhongguo CNR increased several times compared with that of Friday. Along with the volume, the stock price also rose steadily. The bullish trend was very obvious. By ten o'clock, the stock price had reached 5.24 yuan.
The stock price of CSR continued to rise in such a slow stair-like manner, with large purple orders appearing intensively on the trading page. At 10:30 half an hour later, the stock price of CSR continued to rise.
With three large orders of 10,000 shares, CSR's share price suddenly hit a high of 5.25 yuan and closed at 5.27 yuan, a new high for the year.
The breakthrough with both volume and price rising, the price of 5.27 yuan is naturally not the end. At 11:15, there was another round of intensive volume expansion. CSR set a new high of 5.35 yuan. This price was maintained until the morning closing, with a daily increase of 4.09%.
In the afternoon trading, although CSR's share price fell back, it still set a new high for the year and its share price finally closed at 5.36 yuan, up 4.28%, with a trading volume of 444 million yuan.
"It's OK, a breakthrough with large volume; there's no need to be afraid even if there's an adjustment."
Su Mingyu is not used to doing T. As a student, he usually does not have the time, so just like Dafu Technology, he sets an expectation for CSR and clears the position when it reaches that level.
As for the expectations for CSR, Su Mingyu set the price at around 10 yuan, which is double the profit, which is already very good. The same stop loss level is also set, which is to stop loss if the price effectively falls below 4.9 yuan.
The personal holdings of Junshi No. 1, the number one customer in Yangcheng, rose sharply today, while the fund in Ningbo also performed well today as the market rebounded.
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded sharply, reversing the negative trend of last Friday. The stock index also returned to above 2200 points, closing at 2223.33 points, a very interesting number.
Compared with the Shanghai Composite Index, which had a turnover of over 140 billion and eventually surged 1.74%, today's ChiNext Index was much inferior, rising 0.29% throughout the day and maintaining a recovery trend.
Among the four holdings, Wan'an Technology, as expected, followed the script of a small positive line after a sharp drop, rising 1.11% today, Dongfang Wealth rose 1.74%, and Xibu Securities soared 3.37%.
Yinzhijie uniquely went against the market trend and continued to test downwards. Yinzhijie, with only 35 million transactions throughout the day, finally closed at 17.18 yuan, down 2.39%.
"Breaking the 5-day line and testing the 10-day line, it looks like the situation will require further adjustments." After the market closed, the four people also began to analyze Yin Zhijie's K-line.
As the only stock among the fund's holdings that is expected to suffer a semi-annual loss, Yinzhijie's trend has fluctuated significantly since mid-June, with three stages of rise and fall, and the stock price has fluctuated back and forth between 15 yuan and 18 yuan.
At present, the price of 18 yuan seems to be a short-term high. If you want to break through this price, you must wait for a reversal of trading volume or other positive news.
Judging from the recent trend, Yinzhijie seems to continue to return to the box-shaped oscillation trend, and there are obvious signs of short-term adjustments. Compared with the short-term favorable stimulation, Gu Junhao hopes that the time for Yinzhijie's performance to reverse will come sooner.
In the short term, Yinzhijie should not have any significant performance. Judging from the announcement, Yinzhijie will officially announce its semi-annual financial report on the 19th of this month.
The semi-annual financial report is considered bad news, but once the bad news is realized, it will no longer be bad news. As for the remaining good news, we have to wait and see whether Yinzhijie’s major asset restructuring is approved.
If approved, the stock price will take off; if rejected, sell at a loss unconditionally.
"It seems that Yin Zhijie will not change much before the official announcement of the semi-annual results. How about this, you don't have to pay attention to him during this period. You still have 2 million in funds.
Then during this period of time, you can use this money to pursue your short-term trading dreams. Whether you are a dragon or a worm depends on your performance. "Gu Junhao stared at Xu Jianqing and smiled.
Xu Jianqing is full of energy and cannot be left idle. This rare opportunity allows him to try out his stock selection and short-term market monitoring abilities.
"Really? Thanks, boss!" Xu Jianqing, who was originally a little depressed because he had nothing to do, couldn't wait to agree after hearing this. He didn't know since when, the master of slacking off, Xu Jianqing, gradually became the king of involution.
