Chapter 155: Searching for the Bottom
At the end of June, the strategy team of Zhongxin Securities released a research report on the investment strategy for A-shares in the second half of the year, with the theme of finding the bottom.
The report points out that various risks represented by real estate continue to be released, the weak balance of fundamental expectations will be broken downward, and the superposition of rising risk premiums will indicate that the A-share market as a whole will still show a weak trend of seeking a bottom.
Bond market investment should take precedence over stock market investment, and funds in the stock market will tend to choose safer products. Highly valued growth stocks will continue to deflate their bubbles.
Translated, the general meaning of this statement in words that people can understand is: "Real estate is risky, the macro economy is not good, and the A-share market will continue to fall. Don't invest your money in the stock market. The bond market is better. If you really want to buy, buy big blue chips. There is no hope for small and medium-sized start-ups."
When Gu Junhao saw this analysis report that was almost bearish on A-shares, he almost laughed out loud. He really didn't know whether these people really didn't understand or were doing it on purpose.
"Fortunately, I didn't buy it when I was choosing brokerage stocks." In fact, Gu Junhao had thought about buying Zhongxin Securities at the beginning. After all, the stability of the leading company is better than that of small and medium-sized brokerages, and there is no need to worry about the trading volume.
Ashin's credibility during this period was much higher than in later generations. It has to be said that many people still believed in his report. After all, his position as the leading securities firm was unshakable.
However, the trend in the first three days of July did not seem to be affected by Ashin's bearish research report. The ChiNext continued to rise, and some institutions took the opportunity to sing bullish tune. Except that the Shanghai Composite Index was still fluctuating around 2060 points, everything else seemed to be moving in a good direction.
However, Gu Junhao still agrees with the so-called bottoming out in Ashin's research report. The ChiNext Index is currently rebounding too fast, rising to over 1,400 points in just six trading days, and the Shanghai Composite Index has failed to keep up and form a mutual shock between the two markets.
Since reaching its peak on February 25 this year, the ChiNext Index has fallen to around 1,210 points on May 16, a drop of more than 300 points in three months, which is a tragic drop.
In Gu Junhao's opinion, this is the first bottoming out. For the index, if it bottoms out again to form a double bottom, it will be more solid for the subsequent rise. Taking into account the 1194.75 points on December 6 last year, it will be a perfect triple bottom.
However, it would be best if the bottom this time does not fall below 1210 points on May 16. It would be best if it could stabilize above the box at 1250. A triple bottom, with the bottom rising little by little, would be perfect for both the index and individual stocks.
July 4th, Friday, was the last trading day of the week. As far as trading was concerned, Gu Junhao and the other three were relatively relaxed. Wan'an Technology, which was traded by Gu Junhao himself, was already fully invested and there was no need for trading.
Liu Tingting only has 2 million in liquid funds that were recently transferred in, and there is not much room for maneuver. As for Xu Jianqing and Wang Ruoyu, their positions are very light. She doesn't know how Yin Zhijie will perform, and it is far from the time to buy at the bottom for Dongfang Wealth.
However, Gu Junhao still , at least in the morning. Yesterday, he reduced all the time he could because he judged that the market has entered a state of stagflation and may face a correction.
And if I make a wrong judgment, and the volume continues to increase and stabilize on the five-day line today, the market may really enter a short squeeze mode. It is still time to admit the mistake at this time, and it is just equivalent to doing a reverse T.
It is already July. Compared with the subsequent surge, such a reverse T is completely bearable. We have to admit defeat when it is time to do so.
At 9:25, both markets opened slightly lower. Among the fund holdings, except for Wan'an Technology which opened low, the other three stocks opened slightly higher. The opening trend was completely opposite to the index.
"The performance of these four stocks cannot be considered strong, but they have been moving in the opposite direction of the index for several consecutive trading days. It's a bit strange." Xu Jianqing analyzed the intraday chart and the index's intraday chart on the screen.
Even Xu Jianqing, who was considered the most careless among the four, had noticed it. It was impossible for others not to have noticed it. Generally speaking, individual stocks with weaker performance tend to follow the trend of the index.
But the performance of these four stocks in the past few days has been somewhat strange. For a stock with not much trading volume throughout the day, who gives you the courage to go against the index for several consecutive trading days? This is worth thinking about.
"Yes, that's true. However, Dongfang Wealth fell sharply yesterday, so it's not surprising that there was a small rebound today. However, the decline is too far away from the five-day line, so a small rebound is probably useless."
"The downward relay trend analyzed by the boss last time is also a trick to deceive people into taking over if there is a rebound. Remember, Xiao Wang, don't open a position easily." Xu Jianqing said calmly.
So far, the boss has not released today's trading tasks, which means that the market is still in a wait-and-see state, so the mental state of several people is relatively relaxed, and Xu Jianqing has also returned to his playful mode.
Wang Ruoyu simply chose to ignore Xu Jianqing's shameless behavior.
At 9:30, official trading began and the ChiNext Index quickly turned positive, but it was just a positive turn. It did not rise in a straight line as quickly as yesterday.
In terms of individual stocks, the trends of the four stocks all went against the market trend. Dongfang Wealth, Yinzhijie and Xibu Securities, which opened high, quickly turned green. The trend of Dongfang Wealth was better. After turning green, some funds were invested to push the stock price up again.
The other three were not so lucky. The trading volumes shrank and the stock prices remained in the red with no improvement. However, Dongfang Wealth's performance was only slightly better. There was too little bottom-fishing capital, and the total amount of funds in five minutes was less than 10 million.
At 9:35, Dongfang Wealth, whose trading volume was shrinking, was pushed back into the red again by a sell order of 500 lots. Two minutes later, two sell orders of 1,500 lots quickly pushed the price down to 11.19 yuan, down 1.76%.
"Hey, the index can't hold on any longer, look quickly." Xu Jianqing said, staring at the big screen.
At this moment, the ChiNext Index began to increase in volume and the short-selling force increased greatly. It was another straight line similar to yesterday's early trading, but this time it was the opposite, going downward.
The ChiNext Index quickly fell to around 1413 points, a drop of more than 0.65%; at the same time, the Shanghai Composite Index also turned green, but the oscillation range of the Shanghai Composite Index was very small, not as exaggerated as the ChiNext Index.
The Shanghai Composite Index has a small range of fluctuations only because the heavyweight stocks remain stable. However, the declines of some small-cap stocks with large market capitalizations in the Shanghai Stock Exchange are not low, just like small and medium-sized enterprises.
Among the thousands of stocks in the two markets, more than 60% are currently in the red. All major concept sectors have stalled. Dafu Technology, which had soared for three consecutive trading days, did not perform as well as before today and opened low and closed low.
Ten minutes later, the ChiNext Index, which had failed to rebound, chose to move downward again at 10 a.m., seeking support from the five-day line. Half an hour later, the ChiNext Index's decline widened to more than 1%.
During this half hour, individual stocks fell one after another, with many stocks falling by more than 3%, and all the stocks held by Junshi No. 1 Fund were wiped out.
Yinzhijie fell more than 2%, Dongfang Wealth fell nearly 3%, Xibu Securities fell 0.5%. Wan'an Technology, the only stock that opened lower in the morning, was unusually strong. It once again hit a new high today, but was brought down by the index and is now maintained near the opening price of 10.20 yuan.
At 11 o'clock, Dongfang Wealth stopped at the price of 11.01 yuan and began to rebound, but the volume continued to shrink.
"Boss, I feel like we can do a T. Do you want to try it?" Wang Ruoyu was quite confident in his judgment of Dongfang Wealth. He was sure that Dongfang Wealth would have a little resistance at the integer mark of 11 yuan.
However, the boss didn't talk about any trading from the morning meeting to the opening of the market, so Wang Ruoyu couldn't make a decision on his own.
"Don't do it. The volume is too small. You won't be able to get many chips if you do it. If you can't sell them, it will go against the original intention of reducing your position." Gu Junhao understood what Wang Ruoyu meant. Taking advantage of the resistance stage of the 11 yuan integer mark and yesterday's big drop, he took advantage of the rebound demand of Dongfang Wealth to do a T and make a small profit.
However, with this kind of volume, you won't be able to get many chips. It would be meaningless if you really lose all the chips. Sometimes you have to give up small profits.
"Well, it seems that the boss is still bearish." Wang Ruoyu also understood Gu Junhao's concerns, and in his opinion, Dongfang Wealth's decline today was large in volume and rising in costs.
Even if there is a rebound, the rebound range is limited. If nothing unexpected happens, Dongfang Wealth will definitely break through the 11 yuan position.
"Haha, Boss, do you want to take a screenshot of your holdings later? Today, all of our holdings have fallen. This is the first time our fund has seen this."
"What's so strange about this? There's a first time for everything ." Gu Junhao curled his lips. Although the entire portfolio fell, the fund's losses were not large. The two stocks with the heaviest positions had the smallest declines.
Trading volume was sluggish and individual stocks fell across the board. Today's market was destined to be ineffective. However, in order to prevent any accidents, Gu Junhao still stayed in the trading room for the whole day.
It was another day without any transactions all day. If Gu Manyi knew about this, she would cry to death. Since the operation of the fund, although the amount of funds has been increasing, apart from the daily T trading of the three people, Gu Junhao also slowed down his trading frequency.
There has not been a single transaction in the personal account for several months in a row. I don’t know if Old Wang and Gu Manyi are regretting the overly favorable commission rate they gave that day.
In the afternoon, the two markets continued to fluctuate downward. After a full day of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.77%, barely holding the five-day line. Today's trading volume also shrank to 33.75 billion yuan.
Among the individual stocks, except for Dongfang Fortune which rebounded slightly and closed at 11.51 yuan, up 1.05%, the other three, including Dafu Technology, which was liquidated yesterday, all ended down. Yinzhijie and Wan'an Technology both fell 1.56%, and Xibu Securities fell 1.01%.
Due to the rebound of Dongfang Wealth, Xu Jianqing's wish for a full decline in holdings that he joked about during the trading session was not fulfilled. There was always one stock that closed in the red, and Team Leader Xu expressed helplessness.
