Chapter 146: Four Forms of Stocks
After Thursday's statutory decline, sentiment in both markets has improved significantly. In fact, judging from the monthly line, except for the three consecutive days of sharp declines last week, the market in June is generally good; the money-making effect is still quite obvious.
Especially at the beginning of the month and several trading days this week, small and medium-sized innovative themes are active. Generally speaking, it is not difficult to make money this month without frequent stock changes.
The sentiment of the big rally on Thursday continued into Friday morning, with both markets opening higher after the call auction. The ChiNext Index closed at 1388.38 points, only 0.7% away from the previous high of 1396 points in June.
"Boss, can I do the operation today?" Liu Tingting took over Wan'an Technology on Monday, and the market conditions were good, so things went relatively smoothly for her.
So far this week, Gu Junhao has not traded any stocks. Wan'an Technology was handed over to Liu Tingting, and Hailanxin has been excluded from Gu Junhao's shareholding plan due to several share reduction plans by the actual controller. Currently, he holds it only to wait for a suitable opportunity to clear the position at a better price and gain more profits.
"Well, just go ahead." Gu Junhao was also relieved. He only needed to focus on the overall situation.
After the opening, both indexes remained in the red and fluctuated narrowly. Individual stocks performed differently, with heavyweight stocks sluggish and small and medium-sized stocks performing actively.
Speaking of this week's rebound, it can be said that small and medium-sized start-up stocks dominated the market. The China Start-up 100 Index rose by more than 4% this week. Most of the small and medium-sized start-up stocks have rebounded to near their positions before last week's decline, and some stocks have risen by more than 30%.
However, among the several stocks held by Junshi No. 1, except Wan'an Technology, the performance of others was not ideal. Affected by the negative news, the sharp drop in Hailanxin in one trading day consumed the gains of the previous few trading days, and it only barely recovered its original position yesterday.
Yinzhijie's performance this week was also unusual. It is still hovering around the 16 yuan price level, and its average daily trading volume remains around 50 million yuan. The one that disappointed Gu Junhao the most was Dongfang Wealth.
Dongfang Fortune fell sharply last Thursday, and the rebound last Friday and Monday surprised Gu Junhao. However, starting from Tuesday, Dongfang Fortune fell against the market trend for two consecutive trading days. On Thursday, it rose 3.63%. As a result, it opened lower today. The current price remains at around 11.89 yuan, down 0.75%.
"After six trading days, it's still not as good as Thursday's big negative line. The performance is too weak." This trend made Gu Junhao shake his head. Tong Huashun, which belongs to the same concept, is about to recover Thursday's negative line.
The other three holdings, even Hailanxin which was hit by negative news, all showed an upward trend today. Only Dongfang Wealth performed the weakest.
The trend is not what Gu Junhao is most worried about. The decline in trading volume and turnover rate, the two most important indicators for judging a stock price, is what Gu Junhao is most dissatisfied with. This week, Dongfang Wealth's average daily trading volume was less than 300 million yuan, a full 100 million yuan less than the previous period.
It seems that part of the trading volume of more than 900 million last Monday was actually a real withdrawal of funds. I have the impression that Dongfang Fortune fell below the 10 yuan price, but judging from the current trend, I should have forgotten it.
As the saying goes, a long period of sideways trading will inevitably lead to a fall. After the ex-rights period, Dongfang Wealth has been trading sideways for a month. In the absence of volume support to pull it up, it is not hopeless to fall again and bottom out again.
"Find an opportunity to reduce Dongfang Wealth , and keep the market value around 2 million." Gu Junhao said to Wang Ruoyu. After giving the instructions, Gu Junhao shook his head in disappointment.
In terms of building positions, I did nothing wrong in bottom fishing last week. Even the weakest performing Dongfang Wealth has made some profit. However, if we talk about the rebound after this round of sharp drop, I can say that I have failed miserably.
Not only were nearly a quarter of the positions suspended, the remaining three quarters of the positions failed to outperform the index. These stocks were not even as good as Dafu Technology, which he had casually instructed Xu Jianqing to buy.
Dafu Technology opened low and ended high today, and the current price has risen to above 36 yuan, with a real-time daily increase of more than 3%.
"I'm still a little conservative, or too impatient." Knowing that the Shanghai Composite Index is still at the bottom and the market will definitely fluctuate repeatedly, we should use this opportunity to make a rebound with a small position instead of rushing to build a position.
But there is nothing you can do if you make a mistake. Just admit it and correct it in time. Although other holdings have not increased much, they are all in an upward trend. You can wait a little longer. Dongfang Wealth's performance has begun to show signs of fatigue.
Being aware of the risks, you should reduce your holdings in time when there is still profit, and then either buy at the bottom or invest heavily again when the stock price trend turns strong. This is the most important thing to do now.
There are generally four forms of sideways trading of stocks. One is sideways trading at a low level. At this time, the stock price fluctuates back and forth within a range. The forces of the bulls and bears are balanced at this position. The stock price will not have too much momentum, but there will still be small fluctuations from time to time. Currently, the four stocks held by Junshi No. 1 all show this form.
This pattern is Gu Junhao's favorite. Although it is very torturous, as long as you can persist, there is a high probability that you will get unexpected gains. Of course, this requires the promotion of market conditions.
In his previous life, Gu Junhao dealt the most with this type of stocks . Among the industries he was optimistic about, he would choose the targets he liked, distinguish between low-level sideways fluctuations, and use position management methods to reduce the cost of holding positions, and hold on to them for a while waiting for the opportunity to come.
This period of time is not regular, it can be as short as a month or so, or as slow as half a year or even more than a year. It is very painful, but it is worth it. In fact, this method is more suitable for retail investors, because their time cost is the cheapest, and they do not have the pressure of redemption like institutions.
The second form is sideways trading at a high level, which is the opposite of sideways trading at a low level. The stock price is stagnant and under upward pressure. Some stocks will not fall directly, but will digest the chips in their hands in a sideways manner. If an arc top pattern is formed, the bearish signal will be stronger at this time.
The third form is sideways trading in an upward trend, which is called rising relay. After a stock rises rapidly, it needs a period of adjustment. During this adjustment process, the stock's stock nature, popularity and trading volume have not weakened. This form indicates that there is a possibility of continued rise in the future.
In Gu Junhao's view, Dafu Technology's current form belongs to the rising relay. High-level sideways trading and rising relay are also the most difficult to distinguish. From the information Gu Junhao learned, it was analyzed that most investors, especially retail investors, many people suffered losses because they failed to see clearly between the two.
Some people regard the sideways trading at high levels as a rising relay and choose to buy; while some people regard the rising relay as a falling pattern after the sideways trading at high levels and choose to cut losses.
The fundamental reason for this loss is the lack of understanding of the overall market structure, stock fundamentals and even the industry to which they belong, and simply judging based on the K-line trend.
As for the fourth type, it is the sideways trading of the downward trend, also known as the downward relay; after the downward channel of the stock is opened, a sideways consolidation pattern will appear, but because the short-side force has not been fully released, the stock price will continue to fall after a period of sideways trading.
These four forms actually have similarities. When the stock price is trading sideways at a low level, the short selling force defeats the long selling force, which can be manifested as a downward relay. When the stock price is trading sideways at a low level, the long selling force defeats the short selling force, and the stock price will reverse immediately.
Anything can happen in the A-share market. It is not feasible to trade stocks only by looking at the K-line patterns. These technical indicators can only be used as a reference.
The reason why Gu Junhao decided to reduce his holdings in Dongfang Wealth, in addition to his many years of experience in watching the market, was also because of his familiarity with Dongfang Wealth. Including his previous life, Gu Junhao had been paying attention to Dongfang Wealth for almost ten years, and his understanding of this stock was quite deep.
"Boss, should I reduce my holdings?" Xu Jianqing couldn't help asking when he saw Gu Junhao asking Wang Ruoyu to reduce his holdings in Dongfang Wealth; his Yin Zhijie also performed averagely.
If the boss allowed, Xu Jianqing would definitely want to reduce his holdings. Dafu Technology's performance was better, and it was normal for Xu Jianqing to reduce part of his positions and increase his holdings in Dafu Technology.
"Yours is not necessary. Yin Zhijie's performance is okay." Gu Junhao replied.
"Oh, but boss, look at Dafu Technology, its performance is better than Yinzhijie, and you are also optimistic about its price reaching around 50 yuan, so why don't we reduce our holdings in Yinzhijie and increase our holdings in Dafu Technology, even if it's just a T."
"I gave you a short-term fund of 2 million, but it can only be 2 million. Even if you make a profit or even double it in the future, if you use the funds from the liquidation to buy again, it can only be kept within 2 million. Do you understand?"
"Why?" Xu Jianqing asked with some confusion.
“As for the issue of fund management, 2 million yuan is only 5% of the fund’s initial 40 million yuan. Even if all of this 5% of funds are lost, it will not have much impact on the fund as a whole.
But if you increase your position, and short-term trading requires high-frequency trading, one mistake may affect the safety of your funds, do you understand?"
One should not be too greedy. Gu Junhao does not oppose short-term trading, but it is absolutely not okay to put all the funds on short-term trading. For a fund of 40 million, just play with 2 million; if you make money, give your subordinates some sweet treats to make them happy for a while, and if you lose money, it will not affect the operation of the fund.
Similarly, for ordinary retail investors, short-term positions should not be too high. Do not sell long-term holdings and invest in the short term just because you see short-term profits. You must know that the short-term retracement rate is very scary.
After a large pullback, your profits may be reduced to zero, and the funds you lost previously will never be recovered. If this continues for a long time, your mentality will be unbalanced and your trading .
