Chapter 128 Fundamental Analysis and Position Management
Following Ren Yetao's instructions, the trader finally kept Hailanxin's stock price above the intraday yellow moving average. At the midday closing, Hailanxin closed at 16.74 yuan, up 6.83%.
Today, all major heavyweight stocks pulled back, and theme stocks were also relatively sluggish. Except for Hailanxin, the other three holdings of Junshi No. 1 were all in the red.
However, since HaiLanXin's Gu Junhao significantly reduced his holdings near the highest level in the morning, the fund's overall net value did not fall back.
"How were you two doing today?" While having lunch, Gu Junhao asked Xu Jianqing and Wang Ruoyu about their operations in the morning.
"I haven't made any moves. Let's wait and see in the afternoon." Wang Ruoyu said calmly. According to his habit, when the early trading is not ideal, he will look for opportunities before or after the afternoon closing.
"I added a little, but the amount was too small so I didn't buy much." Then Xu Jianqing looked at Liu Tingting with envy and said, "You girls are still popular. Not only do you slack off at work, but your boss also gives you special treatment."
"You are discriminating against everyone based on their personality. The boss treats everyone the same." Liu Tingting said unconvinced.
"Tingting is right. The boss has given you special treatment. And based on your previous attitude at work, only the boss would tolerate you. If you change to another company, he won't be so easy to deal with." Wang Ruoyu said.
"That's right. The boss also gave you a 2 million yuan credit limit. It's the best thing for you."
"Speaking of the 2 million, why didn't Xiao Xu do any short-term trading? Haven't you always dreamed of being a hot investor?" At this moment, Gu Junhao suddenly remembered that it had been the fourth day since they had established a position, but Xu Jianqing had not bought any new targets yet.
"I've been learning recently. It's not easy to be a hot money. If you're not careful, you'll be harvested by someone like you."
Xu Jianqing is well aware of his own level. He is currently unable to adapt to the fast-paced operation methods of hot money. Moreover, under the premise of having a trading task, there is a high probability that he will be harvested.
He also noticed the unusual movement of Hailanxin in the morning, needless to say, the boss must have crashed the market.
"Haha, you are a bit self-aware. You didn't see that the boss was too ruthless this morning. He directly lowered the price by 10 gears and smashed the market at once."
Liu Tingting's words made the two of them look sideways at Gu Junhao.
"What are you looking at? Eat quickly and take a rest after that. This is because the amount of capital is large. In the past, I would have directly placed a limit down order." When I was operating in Qusu Technology before, I had directly placed a limit down order several times to get ahead. At that time, the capital was small and I was not worried about any impact on the market.
"Boss, you are so cruel. It's so hard to play against you." Xu Jianqing gave a thumbs up, holding chopsticks in his hand.
The flattering look on his face gave people a feeling of "Mr. So-and-so, you are so great!" It looked quite funny, causing everyone to laugh and filling the operating room with a joyful atmosphere.
Although Gu Junhao had no operation tasks in the afternoon, he did not leave the operation room. Today, Thursday, both markets were still in the red, and most stocks closed in the red. In order to prevent accidents, Gu Junhao decided to stay in the operation room.
Why A-shares tend to close in the red on Thursday? In Gu Junhao's opinion, it has something to do with the trading system of A-shares. A-shares implement a T+1 system, and the money from selling stocks on the same day cannot be transferred out. This also leads to some funds that want to leave the market on Friday being sold in advance on Thursday.
The stock market is closed on weekends and operations cannot be carried out. If investors want to use money on weekends, they must transfer it out on Friday. Of course, this is just Gu Junhao's personal opinion.
The afternoon's trading was generally calm, but small and medium-sized innovation-themed stocks seemed to be recovering. For example, Yinzhijie and Wan'an Technology, which had not yet established a position, were both pulled up to the red in the afternoon.
Needless to say, HaiLanXin maintained a high-level fluctuation throughout the day. At the end of the trading session, there was another rise similar to that in the morning, but it still failed to rise to the daily limit. HaiLanXin closed at 17.10 yuan, up 9.13%, and the turnover rate was 21.75%.
"The turnover rate has dropped. It seems that the sentiment of capital relay is not high."
Even though I sold more than 9.6 million today, Hailanxin's turnover rate is actually not as high as on the 10th and when it rose before, and the trading volume is only 579 million yuan.
The volume and turnover decreased at the same time. Although the stock price rose, it seemed to indicate that Hailanxin had entered a state of stagflation. The sentiment of hot money following the trend seemed to have weakened. The fact that even a sneak attack at the end of the trading day could not push the stock price to the daily limit also seemed to illustrate this point.
"Let's observe tomorrow. If stagflation continues, I can reduce my position a little more." It happened that the subscription for new shares would start next week, so I had been planning to reduce my position.
In terms of the overall market, heavyweight stocks stalled and both markets closed lower today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.16% and the ChiNext Index down 0.27%. The overall decline is not large and should be able to hold up this week.
"Boss, will we be on the Dragon and Tiger List today?" Liu Tingting asked after the market closed. She was the most comfortable among the four people today. She had nothing to do the whole day. If she wasn't waiting for the after-market meeting after the market closed, she would have wanted to go home early.
"Today's Dragon and Tiger List should be stable. Last time, 6 million were on the Dragon and Tiger List. So many were sold today, it's a high probability event." As for the selling position, Gu Junhao himself was not sure.
"What are you talking about the Dragon and Tiger List? Boss, didn't you say you would teach us a lesson after the market closes?" Xu Jianqing walked over and said.
"Let's take a look at Hailanxin's Dragon and Tiger List later. Xiao Wang, come here too, I'll tell you about my ideas for building a position." It happened that I had some free time now, so I told them about my ideas first.
"Okay." Wang Ruoyu also stopped what he was doing and came over.
"Come, take a look at my holding cost first." Gu Junhao flipped through the sub-accounts and asked the three to look at Hailanxin's holdings.
"Oh my god, cost 3.17 yuan, market value 2.565 million yuan! How did you do that, boss?" Xu Jianqing stared at it in amazement. Wang Ruoyu was also extremely surprised. Only Liu Tingting didn't say anything because she already knew about it.
"How is it? Is it just like what I said on Zhou Yi, that the cost is lower than that of any of yours?" Gu Junhao said with a smile as he looked at the three of them.
"I admire you. Boss, tell us about your ideas." Wang Ruoyu was originally very satisfied with the operation of his Dongfang Wealth, but when he saw the boss's holding cost, some of his complacency suddenly disappeared.
Dongfang Wealth has had three negative and one positive days from Monday to today. Wang Ruoyu was able to build more than half of his positions and maintain a profit of about 4% in such an environment. This is indeed something to be proud of for a novice trader who has just traded a million yuan of funds.
"Okay, let's start with the first delivery order on Monday. This involves grasping the timing of individual stocks, position management, and other market reading experience. Please listen carefully."
"Boss, wait a moment. I'll go get a notebook and write it down." Wang Ruoyu suddenly said.
"Wait, I'll get it too." Xu Jianqing ran back to get the notebook, and then he realized, "If we talk about flattery, it has to be you, Xiao Wang. Your flattery is invisible, and it's much better than my dry flattery of "Boss is awesome."
"I've already got it." Liu Tingting suddenly said.
"Alright, alright. I thought you guys were bronze players, but now I know that I'm facing kings. I, Team Leader Xu, am convinced."
"Okay, stop talking nonsense. I'm going to start talking." Gu Junhao didn't care about Xu Jianqing's funny behavior. Trading itself is boring, and it's not a bad thing to have someone in the team who can stick to the bottom line and liven up the atmosphere.
The three of them stopped joking and began to listen carefully to Gu Junhao's explanation. The four of them gathered around the computer, with Gu Junhao at the center, and the delivery notes of Hailanxin were flipped out on the computer screen.
"The fundamentals and expectations of these stocks have been explained in previous documents, so I will not repeat them here; then I will talk about the characteristics of my stock selection this time."
"Our group mainly invests in small and medium-sized growth stocks. Except for Xibu Securities, every stock has experienced high dividends and stock splits, and ex-rights. We only choose to build positions after the ex-rights. You should have noticed this."
"After understanding the fundamentals of the target, the first step in investing in stocks with high dividends, stock splits and ex-rights is definitely to make use of their rights-filling market. As for how it will develop in the future, I cannot predict it."
"What are the characteristics of high-dividend, high-transfer, high-stock-split and high-rights stocks? The rights filling period is relatively long, and most of them will experience a second bottoming process. This second bottoming process may be completed quickly, or it may take one or two months, and then it may fall back repeatedly. Here everyone should consider their own time sunk cost. Of course, we don't need to consider this."
Looking at most of the stocks , only a very few can fill the rights quickly. A large part will experience at least two months of sideways fluctuations before they will slowly start to fill the rights. Some junk stocks will not even fill the rights. This requires analyzing the fundamentals of the individual stocks. Not all stocks with high bonus and share transfer will fill the rights.
"Okay, after talking about the special features of high dividend and bonus stocks, let's turn our attention back to Hailanxin. Hailanxin opened high and fell 4.88% on the ex-rights day on June 3. Its lowest point on that day was 14.10 yuan, right?"
"Before the ex-rights date, Hailanxin rose by more than 50%, so it is not surprising that it performed this way on the ex-rights date. Logically speaking, for a stock with a large number of profit-taking orders and a high degree of hot money participation, the market should be relatively sluggish after the ex-rights date."
"However, judging from its performance on the second trading day after the ex-rights, this is not the case. After opening at the lowest price, No. 4 Hailanxin quickly bottomed out to a new low of 13.85 yuan in the morning and then quickly rose. It can be said to be very strong, and this strength was maintained until the afternoon closing. The stock price fluctuated at a high level and then returned to the close strongly."
"Look at the candlestick chart. Putting aside the trend before the ex-rights, this is a daily limit rebound market with rising volume and price. The Dragon and Tiger List also shows that hot money has been continuously flowing in and out."
"We don't know why these hot money is coming, or if there is any hidden good news, and we don't need to care about it, but we just need to know that its stock price is very strong, which is our short-term opportunity."
"After that, Hailanxin pulled back for two consecutive trading days, but the pullback price never fell below 14.10 yuan, maintaining the trend of long-term rising prices. In fact, you can tentatively open a position at the end of the 6th. If the long-term rising price is broken, then consider the stop loss position."
"Then if the long-term positive trend is broken, where should we set the stop loss?" Wang Ruoyu asked at this time.
"A long positive line that does not break represents a correction in the upward trend. Don't be afraid. But if it breaks, it means that the stock price may fall further. You have to consider this in combination with the volume and turnover. It may also be a false break to trick you into selling. As for the stop loss position, this depends on your personal funds and positions."
"If I bought it at the end of the trading day on the 6th, and it fell below the original support level on the 9th, I would choose to reduce my position or liquidate it to stop loss when it fell below the previous low of 13.85 yuan. But if I only built a small position, the loss is within my tolerance range, so I would choose to continue to hold it and observe it. After all, I didn't buy it for short-term trading."
"Buying at the end of trading on the 6th is actually bottom fishing. Since it is bottom fishing, you may buy at the halfway point, which involves position management."
"Bottom-fishing is not advisable for retail investors with little capital, because you don't have much money to cover your position. But we don't have that. For example, if I initially determined a 2 million position in Hailanxin, assuming I bottom-fished on the 6th, I would only buy 200,000, 10% of the position. In that way, even if I bottom-fished halfway up the mountain, the overall position loss would not be too big."
"Position management is very important, you must remember this. Stock trading is actually the same as doing anything else. You can't get rich overnight. Stocks are unpredictable. If you choose to buy at the bottom, you will have to bear the risk of continued decline. Xiao Xu, especially, you must pay attention to this."
In fact, many things are ultimately caused by greed. Many people always want to make a big profit by going all in, but nothing in the world goes as one wishes. Your success once does not mean you will succeed every time.
"Okay, I'll pay attention next time. Thanks for the reminder, boss." Xu Jianqing also thought about his own actions, feeling a little distracted and anxious.
Take Yin Zhijie as an example. If he operated alone without anyone's guidance, he would definitely be trapped this week.
"It seems like I have to learn from Xiao Wang in the future. His old-man-like way of stock trading is not without its merits." Xu Jianqing glanced at Wang Ruoyu. He used to laugh at him for his old-man-like stock trading, which was slow and leisurely. But when he thought about the fact that Xiao Wang had the highest rate of return this week, he couldn't hold back.
"Why are you staring at me? The boss is talking about you." Wang Ruoyu was a little dazed by Xu Jianqing's stare.
"Oh, nothing, please continue." Xu Jianqing also came back to his senses.
"Okay, after analyzing the trend of Hailanxin before I opened a position, let me tell you why I invested 6 million yuan in excess position immediately on Monday, the 9th."
"On Monday, Hailanxin still opened at 14.10 yuan, which is exactly the same as the opening price on the 4th. After there was no major change in the volume and turnover rate, my previous judgment was that there was a support near 14 yuan, which could be short-term or long-term."
"Whether in the short or long term, since I think there is an unbreakable support here, there are only two possibilities for the stock price, either sideways or up. Since there is no chance for another target stock, Wan'an Technology, I can use his funds to take a risk. If I do it right, I can shorten the time cost of my position building."
"Boss, you have been emphasizing position management. However, I have seen your previous trading records on Taoguba, which were basically all-in. It seems to contradict your philosophy. The same is true for the 6 million purchase of Hailanxin." Liu Tingting asked in confusion.
The boss analyzed for such a long time, and in addition to the initial analysis of the stock's special features, he has been emphasizing position management. But in fact, the boss seems to have been going all in, which is what puzzles her the most.
"The delivery note you saw on Taoguba is only part of mine. Apart from the initial purchases of Zhongqingbao and Wangsu Technology, which were all-in, I also bought Dafu Technology in batches over many days. As I said earlier, it is difficult to split and control positions when the capital is small, which will increase transaction costs."
"I see. This is probably the disadvantage of ordinary small retail investors. Their ability to resist risks is too poor. Moreover, most of these people are not professionals. Whether they buy right or wrong depends entirely on fate, right?"
"Almost. In fact, it is the same for us. The secondary market is full of variables. You can't always be right. If you buy stocks, you must be prepared for losses." Gu Junhao nodded.
"Okay, let's continue. Now that we have the opportunity, it's okay to be a little bolder. Position management doesn't mean you have to be cautious all the time. As long as you can bear the losses, it's okay to increase your positions. You can treat these newly added positions as hot money for short-term trading. After you have made a certain profit, you can stop the profit in time and maintain the position you set in advance. This will reduce the cost risk of your holdings."
"Look, my cost is 3.17 yuan now. I am not afraid of it no matter how much it drops."
"What if the price of Hailanxin keeps rising? What should I do if I don't want to sell it?"
“So don’t be greedy. Stocks don’t keep rising. It’s never wrong to decisively take profits when they exceed expectations. If they rise later, you still have a base position to make money, and if they fall, you won’t lose too much.”
"I see. The trend of the next two days is understandable. Since the stock price on the 9th met the boss's expectations and eventually rose sharply, although it opened low on the 10th, it opened near the five-day line and quickly pulled up. So we can increase our positions and do T, because the stock price has entered an upward trend. Any low opening is an opportunity." Wang Ruoyu nodded.
"Well, that's well said. Go on and tell me your judgment on the future trend." Gu Junhao nodded encouragingly.
"Okay, the stock price hit the daily limit on the 10th, so the boss sold the positions that were added in the morning. First, it increased liquidity so that the next day would not be too passive. Second, it is also the correct way to stop profit at present. After all, the stock price has reached the daily limit. No matter how the stock price moves the next day, this part of the position will not affect the overall profit.
What's more, whether before or after the ex-rights, Hailanxin's trend is pulled up by turnover, and most of them will open low or high to bottom out the next day, so there is no probability of selling at a loss.
As for the 11th, judging from the delivery note, the boss probably felt that although his stock price had fallen, it was still on an upward trend, and it would be a pity to sell most of his positions that day, so he wanted to wait and see, right?"
"Yes, it is easier to understand why I sold it today. Since I have already reached my profit expectations, I have invested 10 million and gained 22% in four trading days. I have almost got the chips I needed for free. There is no need to linger on the future market and increase my position risk." Gu Junhao said.
"Okay, after saying so much, who of you can summarize what I just said." After talking for so long, Gu Junhao felt a little dry in the mouth and planned to drink some water and take a break.
Just as Gu Junhao was looking around for a cup, Liu Tingting seemed to know what Gu Junhao wanted, and quickly picked up Gu Junhao's cup and said, "Boss, you've worked hard, have a drink of water."
"Hmm? Okay, thank you!" Gu Junhao couldn't help but laugh. It turned out that girls were more careful. These two grown men were just staring at them.
"Boss, you have talked so much. You not only taught us how to become a qualified trader, but also taught us how to select stocks. Thank you, boss!" Wang Ruoyu looked at Gu Junhao and said. Most people would not easily tell others this kind of experience.
After Wang Ruoyu said this, the three of them also reacted; yes, if they just want to train the trading operations of the three of them and make profits for the company, there is no need for the boss to talk about the characteristics of the targets and related concepts mentioned above. He only needs to talk about how to allocate positions and choose the timing.
As for how to choose stock targets, this is not within the scope of a trader's job.
